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2006 United States Senate election in Arizona

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2006 United States Senate election in Arizona

← 2000November 7, 20062012 →
 
NomineeJon KylJim Pederson
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote814,398664,141
Percentage53.34%43.50%

County results
Kyl:     50–60%     60–70%
Pederson:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Jon Kyl
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jon Kyl
Republican

Elections in Arizona

The2006 United States Senate election in Arizona was held November 7, 2006. The primary elections were held September 12. Incumbent RepublicanJon Kyl won re-election to a third term.

Republican primary

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Candidates

[edit]
  • Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1995

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanJon Kyl (incumbent)297,63699.5%
RepublicanWrite-ins1550.05%
Total votes297,791100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticJim Pederson214,455100.00%
Total votes214,455100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[1]
PartyCandidateVotes%
LibertarianRichard Mack3,311100.00%
Total votes3,311100.00%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Campaign

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The incumbent, RepublicanJon Kyl, was elected to the Senate in1994 and was re-elected to a second term in 2000; prior to that he spent eight years in the US House of Representatives. Kyl's Democratic opponent for the general election was wealthy real-estate developerJim Pederson, who served as the Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005. During his tenure, Pederson spent millions of dollars of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to electJanet Napolitano asGovernor of Arizona. The deadline for signing petition signatures to appear on the September 12, 2006, primary ballot was June 14, 2006.

Not long after the 2004 election, Pederson's name began being mentioned as a potential Senate candidate for the 2006 race. On July 28, 2005, Pederson formally stepped down as Chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party, further fueling those speculations. In early September 2005, an e-mail was sent from the Arizona Democratic Party's website, inviting people to an announcement by Pederson on September 7. In an anticlimactic move, an e-mail was sent out shortly after the first saying that the announcement would be postponed due toHurricane Katrina. It was requested that any money that would be donated to Pederson's campaign at the announcement be directed to relief efforts instead. Similarly, a meeting in Arizona of theDemocratic National Committee (DNC) was scheduled for around the same time. It was also postponed and the same request was made involving donations. On September 7, 2005, Pederson filed to run for the U.S. Senate. On September 14, 2005, Pederson formally announced his intention to run, in his hometown ofCasa Grande.

Although Kyl started the campaign with a sizable lead in most polls, the gap quickly narrowed, especially after Pederson released his array of ads.

Debates

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Fundraising

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The race was one of the most expensive in Arizona history. As of May 7, 2006, Kyl's campaign had raised over $9 million, primarily from private donations from Oil and Energy companies and large fundraising dinners. Pederson's campaign had raised over $5 million, primarily through a dinner event with formerPresident Clinton and a $2 million donation from Pederson.[2]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[3]Lean RNovember 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[4]Likely RNovember 6, 2006
Rothenberg Political Report[5]Lean RNovember 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[6]Likely RNovember 6, 2006

Endorsements

[edit]
Jim Pederson (D)
Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
SourceDateKyl (R)Pederson (D)Mack (L)
Arizona State University[10]October 28, 200550%28%
Rasmussen[11]December 26, 200550%30%
Behavior Research Center[12]January 22, 200655%26%
SurveyUSA[13]February 27, 200657%33%
Zogby/WSJ[14]March 30, 200647%42%
Rasmussen[15]April 4, 200656%33%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV[16]April 20–23, 200642%31%
Rasmussen[17]April 30, 200651%35%
SurveyUSA[18]May 8, 200652%37%
Behavior Research Center[19]May 18, 200640%33%
Rasmussen[20]June 11, 200652%35%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV[21]June 20, 200643%29%
Zogby/WSJ[22]June 21, 200648%42%
SurveyUSA[23]July 17, 200652%40%
Zogby/WSJ[22]July 24, 200650%40%
Behavior Research Center[24]July 26, 200645%27%
Rasmussen[25]August 2, 200653%34%
Zogby/WSJ[14]August 28, 200648%44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV[26]August 29, 200646%36%
Rasmussen[27]August 31, 200652%35%
Harstad Strategic Research (D)[28]September 7, 200647%41%
Zogby/WSJ[14]September 11, 200650%44%
Rasmussen[29]September 18, 200650%39%
SurveyUSA[30]September 19, 200648%43%2%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV[31]September 26, 200649%38%2%
Zogby/WSJ[14]September 28, 200651%44%
Behavior Research Center[32]October 4, 200640%34%
Northern Arizona University[33]October 17, 200649%33%2%
SurveyUSA[34]October 17, 200648%43%4%
Rasmussen[35]October 19, 200651%42%
Zogby/WSJ[36]October 19, 200650%44%
Arizona State University/KAET-TV[37]October 24, 200647%41%3%
Zimmerman/Marketing Intelligence[38]October 25–30, 200646%41%4%
SurveyUSA[39]November 3, 200653%40%4%
Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy[40]November 5, 200649%41%3%

Results

[edit]

Pederson lost the election by 9.84% or 150,257 votes, despite Democratic incumbent governorJanet Napolitano easily being re-elected and winning every county statewide. While Pederson lost it was still notable, as it was the worst performance of Senator Kyl's career. Kyl did well as Republicans usually do inMaricopa County home ofPhoenix. Pederson did well inPima County home ofTucson which tends to support Democrats. Kyl was called the winner byCNN at around 8 P.M. local time, 11 P.M. EST. Pederson called Senator Kyl and conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. local time, 12:02 A.M. EST.

2006 United States Senate election in Arizona[41]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanJon Kyl (incumbent)814,39853.34%−25.98%
DemocraticJim Pederson664,14143.50%+43.50%
LibertarianRichard Mack48,2313.16%−1.90%
Write-ins130.00%
Majority150,2579.84%−61.66%
Turnout1,526,783
RepublicanholdSwing

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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See also

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References

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  1. ^abc"Archived copy"(PDF). Archived fromthe original(PDF) on September 20, 2013. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. ^Our Campaigns - News - Kyl may seek an exemption to add cash to his war chest - Aug 23, 2006
  3. ^"2006 Senate Race Ratings for November 6, 2006"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on June 5, 2008. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2021.
  4. ^"Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS".Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 6, 2006. RetrievedJune 25, 2021.
  5. ^"2006 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedJune 25, 2021.
  6. ^"Election 2006". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedJune 25, 2021.
  7. ^"Jim Pederson (Senate AZ) | WesPAC". Archived fromthe original on November 4, 2006.
  8. ^"Endorsements". Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2006.
  9. ^"Human Rights Campaign - Working for Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Transgender Equal Rights - Out to Win - Election 2006". Archived fromthe original on October 26, 2006.
  10. ^Arizona State University
  11. ^RasmussenArchived December 28, 2005, at theWayback Machine
  12. ^Behavior Research Center
  13. ^SurveyUSA
  14. ^abcdZogby/WSJ
  15. ^Rasmussen
  16. ^Arizona State University/KAET-TV
  17. ^Rasmussen
  18. ^SurveyUSA
  19. ^Behavior Research Center[permanent dead link]
  20. ^Rasmussen
  21. ^Arizona State University/KAET-TV
  22. ^abZogby/WSJ
  23. ^SurveyUSA
  24. ^Behavior Research Center
  25. ^RasmussenArchived September 22, 2006, at theWayback Machine
  26. ^Arizona State University/KAET-TV
  27. ^RasmussenArchived September 2, 2006, at theWayback Machine
  28. ^Harstad Strategic Research (D)
  29. ^Rasmussen
  30. ^SurveyUSA
  31. ^Arizona State University/KAET-TV
  32. ^Behavior Research Center
  33. ^Northern Arizona University
  34. ^SurveyUSA
  35. ^Rasmussen
  36. ^Zogby/WSJ
  37. ^Arizona State University/KAET-TV
  38. ^Zimmerman/Marketing IntelligenceArchived November 3, 2006, at theWayback Machine
  39. ^SurveyUSA
  40. ^Mason-Dixon/MSNBC-McClatchy
  41. ^Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
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