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| Turnout | 68.4% (of registered voters) 55.1% (of voting age population) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results
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| Elections in New Mexico |
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The2004 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose five representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
New Mexico was won by incumbentRepublicanPresidentGeorge W. Bush by a 0.79% margin of victory. Bush took 49.84% of the vote, narrowly defeatingDemocraticSenator of MassachusettsJohn Kerry, who took 49.05%. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as aswing state. New Mexico is a very diverse state, with 42% of the stateHispanic and another 42% of the electoratenon-Hispanic white. Exit polling showed that incumbentGeorge W. Bush performed better among Hispanic Americans in 2004 than in2000. This may be one of the reasons why Bush won and swung the state from2000, whenAl Gore had narrowly won the state. New Mexico was one of the only three states which switched sides between 2000 and 2004 (Iowa also flipped from Gore to Bush, whileNew Hampshire flipped from Bush to Kerry). Bush in 2004 is the only Republican presidential nominee to win New Mexico sincehis father in1988.
As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last time the Republican nominee wonLos Alamos County andSandoval County.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Toss-up |
| CNN | Lean R(flip) |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
| Newsweek | Toss-up |
| New York Times | Toss-up |
| Rasmussen Reports | Toss-up |
| Research 2000 | Lean D |
| Washington Post | Toss-up |
| Washington Times | Toss-up |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R(flip) |
Polls showed Kerry in the lead for most of the general election. However, Bush caught up in the last month. The last 3 polling average showed Bush leading with 48% to 46%, which meant that the undecided voters would decide the election.[2]
Bush raised $869,407.[3] Kerry raised $1,289,134.[4]
Because of the closeness of the prior election,New Mexico was largely considered as aswing state. Over the general election, Bush visited the state 5 times and Kerry visited 8 times.[5] Nearly $2 million were spent by both campaigns combined in television advertisements each week.[6]
AlthoughBill Richardson, the Democratic governor, was very popular, the state, which voted forAl Gore by 366 votes in 2000, choseGeorge W. Bush in 2004, by about 6,000 votes. The only county Bush won in 2004 that he didn't win in 2000 wasColfax County. Half of the population in New Mexico isHispanic, and Bush was able to appeal to over 40% of the Hispanic vote.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |
| 376,930 | 49.84% | +1.99 | |
| Democratic | 370,942 | 49.05% | +1.14 | ||
| Independent | 4,053 | 0.54% | −3.01 | ||
| Libertarian | 2,382 | 0.31% | −0.03 | ||
| Green | 1,226 | 0.16% | −3.39 | ||
| Constitution | 771 | 0.10% | +0.04 | ||
| Total votes | 756,304 | 100.00% | |||
| Republicanwin | |||||
| County | George W. Bush Republican | John Kerry Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 121,454 | 47.29% | 132,252 | 51.50% | 3,105 | 1.21% | -10,798 | -4.21% | 256,811 |
| Catron | 1,427 | 71.60% | 551 | 27.65% | 15 | 0.75% | 876 | 43.95% | 1,993 |
| Chaves | 14,773 | 68.06% | 6,726 | 30.99% | 206 | 0.95% | 8,047 | 37.07% | 21,705 |
| Cibola | 3,477 | 46.44% | 3,913 | 52.26% | 97 | 1.29% | -436 | -5.82% | 7,487 |
| Colfax | 3,082 | 51.64% | 2,824 | 47.32% | 62 | 1.04% | 258 | 4.32% | 5,968 |
| Curry | 10,649 | 74.54% | 3,541 | 24.79% | 96 | 0.67% | 7,108 | 49.75% | 14,286 |
| De Baca | 706 | 71.10% | 281 | 28.30% | 6 | 0.60% | 425 | 42.80% | 993 |
| Dona Ana | 29,548 | 47.69% | 31,762 | 51.26% | 650 | 1.05% | -2,214 | -3.57% | 61,960 |
| Eddy | 13,268 | 65.46% | 6,880 | 33.94% | 122 | 0.61% | 6,388 | 31.52% | 20,270 |
| Grant | 6,135 | 45.81% | 7,095 | 52.98% | 162 | 1.20% | -960 | -7.17% | 13,392 |
| Guadalupe | 914 | 40.32% | 1,340 | 59.11% | 13 | 0.58% | -426 | -18.79% | 2,267 |
| Harding | 380 | 59.01% | 259 | 40.22% | 5 | 0.78% | 121 | 18.79% | 644 |
| Hidalgo | 1,081 | 55.04% | 861 | 43.84% | 22 | 1.11% | 220 | 11.20% | 1,964 |
| Lea | 14,430 | 79.37% | 3,646 | 20.05% | 105 | 0.58% | 10,784 | 59.32% | 18,181 |
| Lincoln | 6,070 | 67.34% | 2,822 | 31.31% | 122 | 1.36% | 3,248 | 36.03% | 9,014 |
| Los Alamos | 5,810 | 51.89% | 5,206 | 46.49% | 181 | 1.61% | 604 | 5.40% | 11,197 |
| Luna | 4,164 | 54.84% | 3,340 | 43.99% | 89 | 1.17% | 824 | 10.85% | 7,593 |
| McKinley | 7,351 | 35.64% | 13,051 | 63.28% | 221 | 1.07% | -5,700 | -27.64% | 20,623 |
| Mora | 928 | 32.84% | 1,876 | 66.38% | 22 | 0.78% | -948 | -33.54% | 2,826 |
| Otero | 14,066 | 67.74% | 6,433 | 30.98% | 265 | 1.28% | 7,633 | 36.76% | 20,754 |
| Quay | 2,661 | 64.63% | 1,422 | 34.54% | 34 | 0.83% | 1,239 | 30.09% | 4,117 |
| Rio Arriba | 5,149 | 34.33% | 9,753 | 65.02% | 97 | 0.65% | -4,604 | -30.69% | 14,999 |
| Roosevelt | 4,997 | 69.95% | 2,082 | 29.14% | 65 | 0.91% | 2,915 | 40.81% | 7,144 |
| San Juan | 29,525 | 65.60% | 14,843 | 32.98% | 638 | 1.42% | 14,682 | 32.62% | 45,006 |
| San Miguel | 3,313 | 27.34% | 8,683 | 71.67% | 120 | 0.99% | -5,370 | -44.33% | 12,116 |
| Sandoval | 22,628 | 50.80% | 21,421 | 48.09% | 492 | 1.11% | 1,207 | 2.71% | 44,541 |
| Santa Fe | 18,466 | 27.89% | 47,074 | 71.11% | 660 | 1.00% | -28,608 | -43.22% | 66,200 |
| Sierra | 3,162 | 61.31% | 1,926 | 37.35% | 69 | 1.33% | 1,236 | 23.96% | 5,157 |
| Socorro | 3,696 | 47.08% | 4,025 | 51.27% | 130 | 1.66% | -329 | -4.19% | 7,851 |
| Taos | 3,666 | 24.71% | 10,987 | 74.06% | 182 | 1.22% | -7,321 | -49.35% | 14,835 |
| Torrance | 4,026 | 61.87% | 2,386 | 36.67% | 95 | 1.46% | 1,640 | 25.20% | 6,507 |
| Union | 1,454 | 77.30% | 411 | 21.85% | 16 | 0.85% | 1,043 | 55.45% | 1,881 |
| Valencia | 14,474 | 55.64% | 11,270 | 43.33% | 268 | 1.03% | 3,204 | 12.31% | 26,012 |
| Total | 376,930 | 49.84% | 370,942 | 49.05% | 8,432 | 1.11% | 5,988 | 0.79% | 756,304 |
| Democratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Despite losing the state, Kerry won two of three congressional districts including one district won by a Republican.[7]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48% | 51% | Heather Wilson |
| 2nd | 58% | 41% | Steve Pearce |
| 3rd | 45% | 54% | Tom Udall |
New Mexico voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. New Mexico has 5 electors because it has 3congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for Bush/Cheney.[8]
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