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| Turnout | 64.7% [1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results Municipality results
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The2004 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 17 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
Michigan was won by Democratic nomineeJohn Kerry by a 3.4% margin of victory. Although no Republican carried this state in a presidential election since Bush's fatherGeorge H. W. Bush in1988, early polling showed the race was a toss-up, thus was considered as a possible target for theRepublicans. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or a crucialswing state. Later polling favored Kerry, leading more than half of the news organizations to predict that Kerry would win the state, but the other less than half still considered it a swing state. Although the State of Michigan voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in six subsequent elections since1992, the margins of victory had become smaller over the past elections. On election day, Kerry won the state with 51.23% of the vote, but won only 15 of the 83 counties in Michigan. Most of these 15 counties have the highest populations in the state. The biggest key to Kerry's victory was winningWayne County with 69.39% of the vote.
Bush was the first president elected to two terms in office without carrying Michigan either time sinceWoodrow Wilson in1912 and1916, and is to date the onlyRepublican presidential candidate to win the presidency without carrying the state at least once, as well as the most recent Republican to win without the state. Although Michigan was also not carried by the winner of the2000 presidential race, the election also marked the first time since1976 that Michigan voted against the winner of the national popular vote. Bush was the first Republican to win the national popular vote without Michigan sincethe 1968 presidential race. This also marked the first time since1940 that an incumbent president won reelection without carrying Michigan.
As of2024, this is the most recent election to date in which Michigan would vote for the losing candidate, thus the state is tied withWisconsin andPennsylvania for the longest bellwether streak in the nation. This was also only the fourth and most recent time since1948 (after2000,1976, and1968) that it would vote for the losing candidate.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean D |
| Cook Political Report | Lean D |
| Research 2000 | Lean D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Post | Tossup |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
| Washington Times | Lean D |
| The New York Times | Lean D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Newsweek | Lean D |
| Associated Press | Tossup |
| Rasmussen Reports | Tossup |
Pre-election polling did show a close race early on, but in the fall election Kerry pulled away and won every poll since the month of September. The last 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 49% to 46%.[3]
Bush raised $4,960,010.[4] Kerry raised $2,496,203.[5]
In the fall campaign, Bush visited the state ten times. Kerry visited seven times. Both candidates combined spent over $2 million in advertising each week,[6] but Kerry spent slightly more each week.[7]
Kerry won Michigan with 51.2% and by a margin of 3.4%. While a reduced margin with respect to Gore's in 2000, the state trended Democratic in 2004 relative to the nation.[8] Bush won a majority of the state's counties and congressional districts, holding Kerry to only 15 counties (whereas Gore had carried 24). But he underperformed previous Republicans in two large suburban counties that had recently been Republican strongholds in the state, Oakland and Macomb Counties. Kerry narrowly held onto Oakland County, which has a more white-collar populace and had voted Republican in every election from1940 through1992 save1964, and had voted to re-electBill Clinton in1996 by only 4.3%. Bush did flip the more blue-collar Macomb County, which Gore had become the second Democrat to carry after a twenty-year run of voting Republican from1972 through 1992, but he carried it by only 1.4%, making it still slightly bluer than the nation. Meanwhile, Kerry maintained the traditional Democratic domination of Wayne County, winning about the same 69% vote share in it that Gore had won in 2000. Michigan had voted Republican in every election from 1972 through 1988, in all of which Oakland and Macomb had given the Republican a healthy margin.
| 2004 United States presidential election in Michigan | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | 2,479,183 | 51.23% | 17 | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (incumbent) | 2,313,746 | 47.81% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | 24,035 | 0.50% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 10,552 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 5,325 | 0.11% | 0 | |
| US Taxpayers | Michael Peroutka | 4,980 | 0.10% | 0 | |
| Natural Law | Walt Brown | 1,431 | 0.03% | 0 | |
| Totals | 4,839,252 | 100.00% | 17 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) | 64.2% | ||||
| County | John Kerry Democratic | George W. Bush Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alcona | 2,871 | 43.96% | 3,592 | 55.00% | 68 | 1.04% | -721 | -11.04% | 6,531 |
| Alger | 2,395 | 50.26% | 2,318 | 48.65% | 52 | 1.09% | 77 | 1.61% | 4,765 |
| Allegan | 19,355 | 35.90% | 34,022 | 63.11% | 530 | 0.98% | -14,667 | -27.21% | 53,907 |
| Alpena | 7,407 | 48.70% | 7,665 | 50.39% | 139 | 0.91% | -258 | -1.69% | 15,211 |
| Antrim | 5,072 | 37.24% | 8,379 | 61.52% | 168 | 1.23% | -3,307 | -24.28% | 13,619 |
| Arenac | 4,076 | 49.61% | 4,071 | 49.55% | 69 | 0.84% | 5 | 0.06% | 8,216 |
| Baraga | 1,660 | 45.06% | 1,977 | 53.66% | 47 | 1.28% | -317 | -8.60% | 3,684 |
| Barry | 11,312 | 37.37% | 18,638 | 61.57% | 322 | 1.06% | -7,326 | -24.20% | 30,272 |
| Bay | 31,049 | 54.42% | 25,448 | 44.60% | 562 | 0.98% | 5,601 | 9.82% | 57,059 |
| Benzie | 4,383 | 44.83% | 5,284 | 54.04% | 111 | 1.14% | -901 | -9.21% | 9,778 |
| Berrien | 32,846 | 43.99% | 41,076 | 55.01% | 749 | 1.00% | -8,230 | -11.02% | 74,671 |
| Branch | 7,004 | 38.98% | 10,784 | 60.02% | 179 | 1.00% | -3,780 | -21.04% | 17,967 |
| Calhoun | 29,891 | 47.70% | 32,093 | 51.21% | 683 | 1.09% | -2,202 | -3.51% | 62,667 |
| Cass | 9,537 | 42.02% | 12,964 | 57.12% | 196 | 0.86% | -3,427 | -15.10% | 22,697 |
| Charlevoix | 5,729 | 40.52% | 8,214 | 58.09% | 196 | 1.39% | -2,485 | -17.57% | 14,139 |
| Cheboygan | 5,941 | 42.78% | 7,798 | 56.15% | 148 | 1.07% | -1,857 | -13.37% | 13,887 |
| Chippewa | 7,203 | 43.69% | 9,122 | 55.33% | 163 | 0.99% | -1,919 | -11.64% | 16,488 |
| Clare | 6,984 | 49.09% | 7,088 | 49.82% | 154 | 1.08% | -104 | -0.73% | 14,226 |
| Clinton | 15,483 | 40.95% | 21,989 | 58.16% | 335 | 0.89% | -6,506 | -17.21% | 37,807 |
| Crawford | 3,126 | 43.21% | 4,017 | 55.52% | 92 | 1.27% | -891 | -12.31% | 7,235 |
| Delta | 9,381 | 48.76% | 9,680 | 50.32% | 177 | 0.92% | -299 | -1.56% | 19,238 |
| Dickinson | 5,650 | 41.70% | 7,734 | 57.08% | 165 | 1.22% | -2,084 | -15.38% | 13,549 |
| Eaton | 25,411 | 45.58% | 29,781 | 53.41% | 563 | 1.01% | -4,370 | -7.83% | 55,755 |
| Emmet | 6,846 | 39.41% | 10,332 | 59.48% | 194 | 1.12% | -3,486 | -20.07% | 17,372 |
| Genesee | 128,334 | 60.03% | 83,870 | 39.23% | 1,571 | 0.73% | 44,464 | 20.80% | 213,775 |
| Gladwin | 6,343 | 47.95% | 6,770 | 51.18% | 114 | 0.86% | -427 | -3.23% | 13,227 |
| Gogebic | 4,421 | 52.31% | 3,935 | 46.56% | 96 | 1.14% | 486 | 5.75% | 8,452 |
| Grand Traverse | 18,256 | 39.52% | 27,446 | 59.42% | 489 | 1.06% | -9,190 | -19.90% | 46,191 |
| Gratiot | 7,377 | 42.45% | 9,834 | 56.59% | 168 | 0.97% | -2,457 | -14.14% | 17,379 |
| Hillsdale | 7,123 | 35.23% | 12,804 | 63.34% | 289 | 1.43% | -5,681 | -28.11% | 20,216 |
| Houghton | 6,731 | 42.46% | 8,889 | 56.08% | 231 | 1.46% | -2,158 | -13.62% | 15,851 |
| Huron | 7,629 | 43.68% | 9,671 | 55.37% | 166 | 0.95% | -2,042 | -11.69% | 17,466 |
| Ingham | 76,877 | 57.78% | 54,734 | 41.14% | 1,442 | 1.08% | 22,143 | 16.64% | 133,053 |
| Ionia | 10,647 | 38.55% | 16,621 | 60.18% | 350 | 1.27% | -5,974 | -21.63% | 27,618 |
| Iosco | 6,557 | 46.82% | 7,301 | 52.13% | 148 | 1.06% | -744 | -5.31% | 14,006 |
| Iron | 3,215 | 49.38% | 3,224 | 49.52% | 72 | 1.11% | -9 | -0.14% | 6,511 |
| Isabella | 12,334 | 50.57% | 11,754 | 48.19% | 302 | 1.24% | 580 | 2.38% | 24,390 |
| Jackson | 31,025 | 43.21% | 40,029 | 55.75% | 741 | 1.03% | -9,004 | -12.54% | 71,795 |
| Kalamazoo | 61,462 | 51.31% | 57,147 | 47.71% | 1,174 | 0.98% | 4,315 | 3.60% | 119,783 |
| Kalkaska | 3,189 | 38.05% | 5,084 | 60.67% | 107 | 1.28% | -1,895 | -22.62% | 8,380 |
| Kent | 116,909 | 40.19% | 171,201 | 58.85% | 2,781 | 0.96% | -54,292 | -18.66% | 290,891 |
| Keweenaw | 630 | 43.78% | 781 | 54.27% | 28 | 1.95% | -151 | -10.49% | 1,439 |
| Lake | 2,675 | 50.99% | 2,503 | 47.71% | 68 | 1.30% | 172 | 3.28% | 5,246 |
| Lapeer | 18,086 | 40.97% | 25,556 | 57.89% | 505 | 1.14% | -7,470 | -16.92% | 44,147 |
| Leelanau | 6,048 | 43.46% | 7,733 | 55.57% | 136 | 0.98% | -1,685 | -12.11% | 13,917 |
| Lenawee | 20,787 | 44.22% | 25,675 | 54.61% | 550 | 1.17% | -4,888 | -10.39% | 47,012 |
| Livingston | 33,991 | 36.26% | 58,860 | 62.79% | 891 | 0.95% | -24,869 | -26.53% | 93,742 |
| Luce | 1,045 | 36.94% | 1,749 | 61.82% | 35 | 1.24% | -704 | -24.88% | 2,829 |
| Mackinac | 2,819 | 42.72% | 3,706 | 56.16% | 74 | 1.12% | -887 | -13.44% | 6,599 |
| Macomb | 196,160 | 48.75% | 202,166 | 50.24% | 4,084 | 1.01% | -6,006 | -1.49% | 402,410 |
| Manistee | 6,272 | 49.23% | 6,295 | 49.41% | 173 | 1.36% | -23 | -0.18% | 12,740 |
| Marquette | 17,412 | 53.60% | 14,690 | 45.22% | 386 | 1.19% | 2,722 | 8.38% | 32,488 |
| Mason | 6,333 | 43.34% | 8,124 | 55.60% | 154 | 1.05% | -1,791 | -12.26% | 14,611 |
| Mecosta | 7,730 | 43.97% | 9,710 | 55.23% | 141 | 0.80% | -1,980 | -11.26% | 17,581 |
| Menominee | 5,326 | 46.64% | 5,942 | 52.04% | 151 | 1.32% | -616 | -5.40% | 11,419 |
| Midland | 18,355 | 42.41% | 24,369 | 56.31% | 551 | 1.27% | -6,014 | -13.90% | 43,275 |
| Missaukee | 2,319 | 31.25% | 5,055 | 68.12% | 47 | 0.63% | -2,736 | -36.87% | 7,421 |
| Monroe | 36,089 | 48.68% | 37,470 | 50.54% | 573 | 0.77% | -1,381 | -1.86% | 74,132 |
| Montcalm | 11,471 | 42.91% | 14,968 | 55.99% | 295 | 1.10% | -3,497 | -13.08% | 26,734 |
| Montmorency | 2,196 | 39.48% | 3,300 | 59.32% | 67 | 1.20% | -1,104 | -19.84% | 5,563 |
| Muskegon | 44,282 | 55.14% | 35,302 | 43.96% | 729 | 0.91% | 8,980 | 11.18% | 80,313 |
| Newaygo | 9,057 | 39.60% | 13,608 | 59.49% | 208 | 0.91% | -4,551 | -19.89% | 22,873 |
| Oakland | 319,387 | 49.75% | 316,633 | 49.32% | 5,957 | 0.93% | 2,754 | 0.43% | 641,977 |
| Oceana | 5,441 | 44.25% | 6,677 | 54.30% | 179 | 1.46% | -1,236 | -10.05% | 12,297 |
| Ogemaw | 5,215 | 48.30% | 5,454 | 50.52% | 127 | 1.18% | -239 | -2.22% | 10,796 |
| Ontonagon | 1,863 | 44.44% | 2,262 | 53.96% | 67 | 1.60% | -399 | -9.52% | 4,192 |
| Osceola | 4,467 | 39.93% | 6,599 | 58.98% | 122 | 1.09% | -2,132 | -19.05% | 11,188 |
| Oscoda | 1,792 | 40.64% | 2,570 | 58.29% | 47 | 1.07% | -778 | -17.65% | 4,409 |
| Otsego | 4,674 | 37.98% | 7,470 | 60.70% | 163 | 1.32% | -2,796 | -22.72% | 12,307 |
| Ottawa | 35,552 | 27.64% | 92,048 | 71.55% | 1,043 | 0.81% | -56,496 | -43.91% | 128,643 |
| Presque Isle | 3,432 | 45.66% | 3,982 | 52.98% | 102 | 1.36% | -550 | -7.32% | 7,516 |
| Roscommon | 6,810 | 47.43% | 7,364 | 51.28% | 185 | 1.29% | -554 | -3.85% | 14,359 |
| Saginaw | 54,887 | 53.37% | 47,165 | 45.86% | 800 | 0.78% | 7,722 | 7.51% | 102,852 |
| St. Clair | 36,174 | 45.36% | 42,740 | 53.60% | 829 | 1.04% | -6,566 | -8.24% | 79,743 |
| St. Joseph | 9,648 | 38.23% | 15,340 | 60.78% | 251 | 0.99% | -5,692 | -22.55% | 25,239 |
| Sanilac | 7,883 | 37.97% | 12,632 | 60.84% | 248 | 1.19% | -4,749 | -22.87% | 20,763 |
| Schoolcraft | 2,137 | 48.12% | 2,267 | 51.05% | 37 | 0.83% | -130 | -2.93% | 4,441 |
| Shiawassee | 16,881 | 46.06% | 19,407 | 52.95% | 363 | 0.99% | -2,526 | -6.89% | 36,651 |
| Tuscola | 12,631 | 44.57% | 15,389 | 54.31% | 318 | 1.12% | -2,758 | -9.74% | 28,338 |
| Van Buren | 16,151 | 47.26% | 17,634 | 51.60% | 389 | 1.14% | -1,483 | -4.34% | 34,174 |
| Washtenaw | 109,953 | 63.46% | 61,455 | 35.47% | 1,856 | 1.07% | 48,498 | 27.99% | 173,264 |
| Wayne | 600,047 | 69.39% | 257,750 | 29.81% | 6,931 | 0.80% | 342,297 | 39.58% | 864,728 |
| Wexford | 6,034 | 39.80% | 8,966 | 59.14% | 160 | 1.06% | -2,932 | -19.34% | 15,160 |
| Totals | 2,479,183 | 51.23% | 2,313,746 | 47.81% | 46,323 | 0.96% | 165,437 | 3.42% | 4,839,252 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Bush won ten of 15 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[9]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53% | 46% | Bart Stupak |
| 2nd | 60% | 39% | Peter Hoekstra |
| 3rd | 59% | 40% | Vern Ehlers |
| 4th | 55% | 44% | Dave Camp |
| 5th | 41% | 59% | Dale Kildee |
| 6th | 53% | 46% | Fred Upton |
| 7th | 54% | 45% | Nick Smith |
| Joe Schwarz | |||
| 8th | 54% | 45% | Mike Rogers |
| 9th | 51% | 49% | Joe Knollenberg |
| 10th | 57% | 43% | Candice Miller |
| 11th | 53% | 47% | Thaddeus McCotter |
| 12th | 39% | 61% | Sander Levin |
| 13th | 19% | 81% | Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick |
| 14th | 17% | 83% | John Conyers Jr. |
| 15th | 38% | 62% | John Dingell |
Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Michigan is allocated 17 electors because it has 15congressional districts and twosenators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 17 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 17 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 17 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election | ||
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