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| Turnout |  74%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results
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The2004 United States presidential election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 27 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
Florida was won by incumbentPresidentGeorge W. Bush by a 5.01% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a tossup, orswing state, but was eventually described as leaning towards Bush near the end of the campaign. Once again, Florida was under the national spotlight due to its high number ofelectoral votes and the fresh memory of the controversy surrounding the2000 Florida vote. Turnout was much higher, going from an estimated 6 million voters in 2000 to over 7.5 million voters showing up to vote in 2004.[2]
Bush's more comfortable victory in Florida this time around was attributed to the popularity of his brother,Jeb, who was the state'sgovernor and hadapproval ratings greater than 60%.[3] Kerry became the first Democrat sinceMichael Dukakis in the1988 election to not flip a single county in the state, although he did improve onAl Gore's margins inGadsden County andJefferson County.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[4]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean R |
| Associated Press | Toss-up |
| CNN | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report | Toss-up |
| Newsweek | Toss-up |
| New York Times | Toss-up |
| Rasmussen Reports | Toss-up |
| Research 2000 | Toss-up |
| Washington Post | Toss-up |
| Washington Times | Toss-up |
| Zogby International | Toss-up |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Kerry (D) | George W. Bush (R) | Ralph Nader (I) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[5] | October 27–31, 2004 | 1,098 | ± 3.3 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac[6] | October 22–26, 2004 | 944 | ± 3.2 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac[7] | October 15–19, 2004 | 808 | ± 3.5 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac[8] | October 1–5, 2004 | 717 | ± 3.7 | 44% | 51% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac[9] | September 18–21, 2004 | 819 | ± 3.4 | 41% | 49% | 5% | 0% | 5% |
| Quinnipiac[10] | August 5–10, 2004 | 1,094 | ± 3.0 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 0% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[11] | June 23–27, 2004 | 1,209 | ± 2.8 | 43% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 9% |
Throughout the general election, candidates exchanged narrow leads in the state. The final 3 poll averaged showed Bush leading with 49% to Kerry's 47%.[12]
Bush raised $16,956,510.[13] Kerry raised $7,285,151.[14]
This state was heavily targeted as aswing state. Over the course of the election, Bush visited the state 15 times to Kerry's 18 times. Also, both candidates spent heavily on television advertisements, spending an estimated $3 million each week.[15]
During the2004 U.S. presidential election, numerous allegations of irregularities were made concerning the voting process inFlorida. These allegations included missing and uncounted votes, machine malfunction, and a lack of correlation between the vote count andexit polling.
In the prior election,Ralph Nader obtained over 2% of the vote, thus Bush won with less than 50% of the vote, making his approval rating and his brother's approval ratings the deciding factor of the state. Polls throughout the campaign indicated that Florida was too close to call, prompting concerns about a repeat of the 2000 fiasco. However, the high popularity ofGeorge W. Bush's brother,RepublicanGovernorJeb Bush, contributed to a relatively comfortable victory for Bush, by a margin of 5% over hisDemocratic rival,John Kerry. Despite this, Florida remained the most Democratic of the 11 states of the formerConfederacy, and Kerry's 5% loss in Florida was the closest he came to carrying any Confederate state.
While theSouth Florida metropolitan area mostly voted for Kerry, the other parts of the state mainly supported Bush, being culturally closer to the rest of thesouthern United States than toMiami, home to largeHispanic andJewish populations, as well as retirees and transplants from the largely liberalNortheastern United States.
Key to Bush's victory was increased turnout in Republican areas. Bush's margin of victory in several counties topped 70%, particularly in theFlorida Panhandle. Bush also won a significant number of heavily populated and fast-growing areas includingJacksonville, the entireTampa Bay area,Southwest Florida,Orlando, theSpace Coast, andOcala.
Osceola andHillsborough counties would not vote Republican again until2024.
As of the2024 presidential election[update], this is the last time that the city of Orlando has voted Republican in a presidential election.
| United States presidential election in Florida, 2004 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush (Inc.) | Dick Cheney(incumbent) | 3,964,522 | 52.10% | 27 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | John Edwards | 3,583,544 | 47.09% | 0 | |
| Reform | Ralph Nader | Peter Camejo | 32,971 | 0.43% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | Richard Campagna | 11,996 | 0.16% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Michael Peroutka | Chuck Baldwin | 6,626 | 0.09% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | Patricia LaMarche | 3,917 | 0.05% | 0 | |
| Socialist | Walter Brown | Mary Alice Herbert | 3,502 | 0.05% | 0 | |
| Socialist Workers | James Harris | Margaret Trowe | 2,732 | 0.04% | 0 | |
| Totals | 7,609,810 | 100.00% | 27 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age) | 74.0% | |||||
| County | George W. Bush Republican | John Kerry Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alachua | 47,762 | 42.90% | 62,504 | 56.14% | 1,062 | 0.95% | -14,742 | -13.24% | 111,328 |
| Baker | 7,738 | 77.73% | 2,180 | 21.90% | 37 | 0.37% | 5,558 | 55.83% | 9,955 |
| Bay | 53,404 | 71.18% | 21,068 | 28.08% | 552 | 0.74% | 32,336 | 43.10% | 75,024 |
| Bradford | 7,557 | 69.62% | 3,244 | 29.88% | 54 | 0.50% | 4,313 | 39.74% | 10,855 |
| Brevard | 153,068 | 57.66% | 110,309 | 41.55% | 2,085 | 0.79% | 42,759 | 16.11% | 265,462 |
| Broward | 244,674 | 34.61% | 453,873 | 64.21% | 8,325 | 1.18% | -209,199 | -29.60% | 706,872 |
| Calhoun | 3,782 | 63.42% | 2,116 | 35.49% | 65 | 1.09% | 1,666 | 27.93% | 5,963 |
| Charlotte | 44,428 | 55.68% | 34,256 | 42.93% | 1,102 | 1.38% | 10,172 | 12.75% | 79,786 |
| Citrus | 39,500 | 56.86% | 29,277 | 42.15% | 690 | 0.99% | 10,223 | 14.71% | 69,467 |
| Clay | 62,078 | 76.17% | 18,971 | 23.28% | 446 | 0.55% | 43,107 | 52.89% | 81,495 |
| Collier | 83,631 | 64.99% | 43,892 | 34.11% | 1,160 | 0.90% | 39,739 | 30.88% | 128,683 |
| Columbia | 16,758 | 67.06% | 8,031 | 32.14% | 202 | 0.81% | 8,727 | 34.92% | 24,991 |
| DeSoto | 5,524 | 58.09% | 3,913 | 41.15% | 73 | 0.77% | 1,611 | 16.94% | 9,510 |
| Dixie | 4,434 | 68.83% | 1,960 | 30.43% | 48 | 0.75% | 2,474 | 38.40% | 6,442 |
| Duval | 220,190 | 57.78% | 158,610 | 41.62% | 2,261 | 0.59% | 61,580 | 16.16% | 381,061 |
| Escambia | 93,566 | 65.30% | 48,329 | 33.73% | 1,383 | 0.97% | 45,237 | 31.57% | 143,278 |
| Flagler | 19,633 | 51.02% | 18,578 | 48.28% | 269 | 0.70% | 1,055 | 2.74% | 38,480 |
| Franklin | 3,472 | 58.54% | 2,401 | 40.48% | 58 | 0.98% | 1,071 | 18.06% | 5,931 |
| Gadsden | 6,253 | 29.80% | 14,629 | 69.72% | 102 | 0.49% | -8,376 | -39.92% | 20,984 |
| Gilchrist | 4,936 | 70.36% | 2,017 | 28.75% | 62 | 0.88% | 2,919 | 41.61% | 7,015 |
| Glades | 2,443 | 58.33% | 1,718 | 41.02% | 27 | 0.64% | 725 | 17.31% | 4,188 |
| Gulf | 4,805 | 66.03% | 2,407 | 33.08% | 65 | 0.89% | 2,398 | 32.95% | 7,277 |
| Hamilton | 2,792 | 54.97% | 2,260 | 44.50% | 27 | 0.53% | 532 | 10.47% | 5,079 |
| Hardee | 5,049 | 69.65% | 2,149 | 29.65% | 51 | 0.70% | 2,900 | 40.00% | 7,249 |
| Hendry | 5,757 | 58.90% | 3,960 | 40.51% | 58 | 0.59% | 1,797 | 18.39% | 9,775 |
| Hernando | 42,635 | 52.93% | 37,187 | 46.17% | 725 | 0.90% | 5,448 | 6.76% | 80,547 |
| Highlands | 25,878 | 62.36% | 15,347 | 36.98% | 271 | 0.65% | 10,531 | 25.38% | 41,496 |
| Hillsborough | 245,576 | 53.01% | 214,132 | 46.23% | 3,514 | 0.76% | 31,444 | 6.78% | 463,222 |
| Holmes | 6,412 | 77.25% | 1,810 | 21.81% | 78 | 0.94% | 4,602 | 55.44% | 8,300 |
| Indian River | 36,938 | 60.15% | 23,956 | 39.01% | 520 | 0.85% | 12,982 | 21.14% | 61,414 |
| Jackson | 12,122 | 61.20% | 7,555 | 38.14% | 130 | 0.66% | 4,567 | 23.06% | 19,807 |
| Jefferson | 3,298 | 44.10% | 4,135 | 55.30% | 45 | 0.60% | -837 | -11.20% | 7,478 |
| Lafayette | 2,460 | 73.98% | 845 | 25.41% | 20 | 0.60% | 1,615 | 48.57% | 3,325 |
| Lake | 74,389 | 60.02% | 48,221 | 38.90% | 1,340 | 1.08% | 26,168 | 21.12% | 123,950 |
| Lee | 144,176 | 59.91% | 93,860 | 39.00% | 2,631 | 1.09% | 50,316 | 20.91% | 240,667 |
| Leon | 51,615 | 37.85% | 83,873 | 61.50% | 891 | 0.65% | -32,258 | -23.65% | 136,379 |
| Levy | 10,410 | 62.52% | 6,074 | 36.48% | 168 | 1.01% | 4,336 | 26.04% | 16,652 |
| Liberty | 1,927 | 63.79% | 1,070 | 35.42% | 24 | 0.79% | 857 | 28.37% | 3,021 |
| Madison | 4,191 | 50.47% | 4,050 | 48.77% | 63 | 0.76% | 141 | 1.70% | 8,304 |
| Manatee | 81,318 | 56.62% | 61,262 | 42.66% | 1,041 | 0.72% | 20,056 | 13.96% | 143,621 |
| Marion | 81,283 | 58.19% | 57,271 | 41.00% | 1,123 | 0.80% | 24,012 | 17.19% | 139,677 |
| Martin | 41,362 | 57.09% | 30,208 | 41.69% | 883 | 1.22% | 11,154 | 15.40% | 72,453 |
| Miami-Dade | 361,095 | 46.61% | 409,732 | 52.89% | 3,899 | 0.50% | -48,637 | -6.28% | 774,726 |
| Monroe | 19,467 | 49.24% | 19,654 | 49.71% | 414 | 1.05% | -187 | -0.47% | 39,535 |
| Nassau | 23,783 | 72.64% | 8,573 | 26.18% | 387 | 1.18% | 15,210 | 46.46% | 32,743 |
| Okaloosa | 69,693 | 77.65% | 19,368 | 21.58% | 695 | 0.77% | 50,325 | 56.07% | 89,756 |
| Okeechobee | 6,978 | 57.24% | 5,153 | 42.27% | 59 | 0.48% | 1,825 | 14.97% | 12,190 |
| Orange | 192,539 | 49.62% | 193,354 | 49.83% | 2,151 | 0.55% | -815 | -0.21% | 388,044 |
| Osceola | 43,117 | 52.45% | 38,633 | 47.00% | 454 | 0.55% | 4,484 | 5.45% | 82,204 |
| Palm Beach | 212,688 | 39.05% | 328,687 | 60.35% | 3,247 | 0.60% | -115,999 | -21.30% | 544,622 |
| Pasco | 103,230 | 54.07% | 84,749 | 44.39% | 2,937 | 1.54% | 18,481 | 9.68% | 190,916 |
| Pinellas | 225,686 | 49.56% | 225,460 | 49.51% | 4,211 | 0.92% | 226 | 0.05% | 455,357 |
| Polk | 123,559 | 58.61% | 86,009 | 40.80% | 1,262 | 0.60% | 37,550 | 17.81% | 210,830 |
| Putnam | 18,311 | 59.12% | 12,412 | 40.07% | 250 | 0.81% | 5,899 | 19.05% | 30,973 |
| St. Johns | 59,196 | 68.60% | 26,399 | 30.59% | 695 | 0.81% | 32,797 | 38.01% | 86,290 |
| St. Lucie | 47,592 | 47.56% | 51,835 | 51.80% | 636 | 0.64% | -4,243 | -4.24% | 100,063 |
| Santa Rosa | 52,059 | 77.35% | 14,659 | 21.78% | 589 | 0.88% | 37,400 | 55.57% | 67,307 |
| Sarasota | 104,692 | 53.51% | 88,442 | 45.20% | 2,518 | 1.29% | 16,250 | 8.31% | 195,652 |
| Seminole | 108,172 | 58.10% | 76,971 | 41.34% | 1,052 | 0.56% | 31,201 | 16.76% | 186,195 |
| Sumter | 19,800 | 62.18% | 11,584 | 36.38% | 458 | 1.44% | 8,216 | 25.80% | 31,842 |
| Suwannee | 11,153 | 70.58% | 4,522 | 28.62% | 127 | 0.80% | 6,631 | 41.96% | 15,802 |
| Taylor | 5,467 | 63.71% | 3,049 | 35.53% | 65 | 0.76% | 2,418 | 28.18% | 8,581 |
| Union | 3,396 | 72.64% | 1,251 | 26.76% | 28 | 0.60% | 2,145 | 45.88% | 4,675 |
| Volusia | 111,924 | 48.89% | 115,519 | 50.46% | 1,496 | 0.65% | -3,595 | -1.57% | 228,939 |
| Wakulla | 6,777 | 57.61% | 4,896 | 41.62% | 90 | 0.77% | 1,881 | 15.99% | 11,763 |
| Walton | 17,555 | 73.22% | 6,213 | 25.91% | 208 | 0.87% | 11,342 | 47.31% | 23,976 |
| Washington | 7,369 | 71.09% | 2,912 | 28.09% | 85 | 0.82% | 4,457 | 43.00% | 10,366 |
| Totals | 3,964,522 | 52.10% | 3,583,544 | 47.09% | 61,744 | 0.81% | 380,978 | 5.01% | 7,609,810 |
| Democratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Bush won 18 of 25 congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party.[16]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 72% | 28% | Jeff Miller |
| 2nd | 54% | 46% | Allen Boyd |
| 3rd | 35% | 65% | Corrine Brown |
| 4th | 69% | 31% | Ander Crenshaw |
| 5th | 58% | 41% | Ginny Brown-Waite |
| 6th | 61% | 39% | Cliff Stearns |
| 7th | 57% | 43% | John Mica |
| 8th | 55% | 44% | Ric Keller |
| 9th | 57% | 43% | Michael Bilirakis |
| 10th | 51% | 49% | Bill Young |
| 11th | 41% | 58% | Jim Davis |
| 12th | 58% | 42% | Adam Putnam |
| 13th | 56% | 44% | Katherine Harris |
| 14th | 62% | 38% | Connie Mack IV |
| 15th | 57% | 43% | Dave Weldon |
| 16th | 54% | 46% | Mark Foley |
| 17th | 17% | 83% | Kendrick Meek |
| 18th | 54% | 46% | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen |
| 19th | 34% | 66% | Peter Deutsch |
| 20th | 36% | 64% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
| 21st | 57% | 43% | Lincoln Diaz-Balart |
| 22nd | 48% | 52% | E. Clay Shaw Jr. |
| 23rd | 24% | 76% | Alcee Hastings |
| 24th | 55% | 45% | Tom Feeney |
| 25th | 56% | 44% | Mario Diaz-Balart |
Technically the voters of Florida cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Florida is allocated 27 electors because it has 25congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 27 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 27 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Florida. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[17]
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{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election | ||
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