 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 76.04% (of registered voters) 5.10pp57.03% (of eligible voters) 5.11pp[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County results Congressional district results
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
The2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2 as part of the2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
California was won byDemocratic nomineeJohn Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all leading news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safeblue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's fatherGeorge H. W. Bush in his victory overMichael Dukakis in1988. Bush would become the first Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.
This marked the first election since1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California and the first time since1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser. It was also the first time since Californian statehood in 1850 that a presidential candidate, of any party, was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.
This is the most recent election in which a Republican presidential candidate has received more than 40% of the vote in California. It is also the most recent time a Republican has won more than a third of the vote inLos Angeles County, and the latest time the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes and single-digit points.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Solid D |
| Associated Press | Solid D |
| CNN | Likely D |
| Cook Political Report | Solid D |
| Newsweek | Solid D |
| New York Times | Solid D |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely D |
| Research 2000 | Solid D |
| Washington Post | Likely D |
| Washington Times | Solid D |
| Zogby International | Likely D |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely D |
Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.[3]
Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.[4] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.[5]
Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.[6][7]
.jpg)
California was once a Republican-leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from1952 through 1988, except in1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) andliberal bastions such as theSan Francisco Bay Area andLos Angeles County. The last time a Republican candidate won the state was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.
In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populatedSan Diego,Orange,Riverside,San Bernardino,Ventura,Kern,Fresno,Stanislaus, andSan Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes inLos Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin inSacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support byArnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor.[8] These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.
Bush remains the last Republican candidate to winSan Diego,San Luis Obispo andVentura counties in a presidential election.Fresno,Merced,Riverside,San Bernardino,San Joaquin, andStanislaus counties would not vote Republican again until 2024. He is also the last candidate of any party to winButte county by a majority. This is the last time the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote until2024.[9][10]
| 2004 United States presidential election in California[11][12] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | John Forbes Kerry andJohn Reid Edwards | 6,745,485 | 54.31% | 55 | |
| Republican | George Walker Bush andRichard Bruce Cheney (incumbent) | 5,509,826 | 44.36% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Michael Badnarik | 50,165 | 0.40% | 0 | |
| Green | David Cobb | 40,771 | 0.33% | 0 | |
| Peace and Freedom | Leonard Peltier | 27,607 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| American Independent | Michael Peroutka | 26,645 | 0.21% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader (write-in) | 21,213 | 0.17% | 0 | |
| Independent | John Joseph Kennedy (write-in) | 82 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | John Parker (write-in) | 49 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | James Alexander-Pace (write-in) | 8 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | Anthony Jabin (write-in) | 1 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Totals | 12,421,852 | 100.00% | 55 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting Age voters) | 74.7% | ||||
| County[13] | John Kerry Democratic | George W. Bush Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alameda | 422,585 | 75.18% | 130,911 | 23.29% | 8,594 | 1.53% | 291,674 | 51.89% | 562,090 |
| Alpine | 373 | 53.21% | 311 | 44.37% | 17 | 2.43% | 62 | 8.84% | 701 |
| Amador | 6,541 | 36.56% | 11,107 | 62.08% | 243 | 1.36% | -4,566 | -25.52% | 17,891 |
| Butte | 42,448 | 44.14% | 51,662 | 53.73% | 2,047 | 2.13% | -9,214 | -9.58% | 96,157 |
| Calaveras | 8,286 | 37.09% | 13,601 | 60.87% | 456 | 2.04% | -5,315 | -23.79% | 22,343 |
| Colusa | 1,947 | 31.58% | 4,142 | 67.17% | 77 | 1.25% | -2,195 | -35.60% | 6,166 |
| Contra Costa | 257,254 | 62.28% | 150,608 | 36.46% | 5,166 | 1.25% | 106,646 | 25.82% | 413,028 |
| Del Norte | 3,892 | 41.31% | 5,356 | 56.85% | 173 | 1.84% | -1,464 | -15.54% | 9,421 |
| El Dorado | 32,242 | 37.33% | 52,878 | 61.23% | 1,244 | 1.44% | -20,636 | -23.89% | 86,364 |
| Fresno | 103,154 | 41.68% | 141,988 | 57.38% | 2,321 | 0.94% | -38,834 | -15.69% | 247,463 |
| Glenn | 2,995 | 31.68% | 6,308 | 66.72% | 151 | 1.60% | -3,313 | -35.04% | 9,454 |
| Humboldt | 37,988 | 57.66% | 25,714 | 39.03% | 2,184 | 3.31% | 12,274 | 18.63% | 65,886 |
| Imperial | 17,964 | 52.41% | 15,890 | 46.36% | 420 | 1.23% | 2,074 | 6.05% | 34,274 |
| Inyo | 3,350 | 38.88% | 5,091 | 59.09% | 175 | 2.03% | -1,741 | -20.21% | 8,616 |
| Kern | 68,603 | 32.49% | 140,417 | 66.49% | 2,154 | 1.02% | -71,814 | -34.01% | 211,174 |
| Kings | 10,833 | 33.74% | 21,003 | 65.41% | 274 | 0.85% | -10,170 | -31.67% | 32,110 |
| Lake | 13,141 | 53.16% | 11,093 | 44.88% | 485 | 1.96% | 2,048 | 8.29% | 24,719 |
| Lassen | 3,158 | 27.58% | 8,126 | 70.97% | 166 | 1.45% | -4,968 | -43.39% | 11,450 |
| Los Angeles | 1,907,736 | 63.10% | 1,076,225 | 35.60% | 39,319 | 1.30% | 831,511 | 27.50% | 3,023,280 |
| Madera | 13,481 | 34.70% | 24,871 | 64.02% | 498 | 1.28% | -11,390 | -29.32% | 38,850 |
| Marin | 99,070 | 73.21% | 34,378 | 25.40% | 1,877 | 1.39% | 64,692 | 47.80% | 135,325 |
| Mariposa | 3,251 | 37.55% | 5,215 | 60.23% | 192 | 2.22% | -1,964 | -22.68% | 8,658 |
| Mendocino | 24,385 | 63.45% | 12,955 | 33.71% | 1,089 | 2.83% | 11,430 | 29.74% | 38,429 |
| Merced | 24,491 | 42.26% | 32,773 | 56.54% | 696 | 1.20% | -8,282 | -14.29% | 57,960 |
| Modoc | 1,149 | 25.72% | 3,235 | 72.42% | 83 | 1.86% | -2,086 | -46.70% | 4,467 |
| Mono | 2,628 | 49.23% | 2,621 | 49.10% | 89 | 1.67% | 7 | 0.13% | 5,338 |
| Monterey | 75,241 | 60.36% | 47,838 | 38.38% | 1,574 | 1.26% | 27,403 | 21.98% | 124,653 |
| Napa | 33,666 | 59.48% | 22,059 | 38.97% | 874 | 1.54% | 11,607 | 20.51% | 56,599 |
| Nevada | 24,220 | 44.92% | 28,790 | 53.39% | 910 | 1.69% | -4,570 | -8.48% | 53,920 |
| Orange | 419,239 | 38.98% | 641,832 | 59.68% | 14,328 | 1.33% | -222,593 | -20.70% | 1,075,399 |
| Placer | 55,573 | 36.26% | 95,969 | 62.61% | 1,736 | 1.13% | -40,396 | -26.35% | 153,278 |
| Plumas | 4,129 | 36.90% | 6,905 | 61.71% | 156 | 1.39% | -2,776 | -24.81% | 11,190 |
| Riverside | 228,806 | 41.04% | 322,473 | 57.83% | 6,300 | 1.13% | -93,667 | -16.80% | 557,579 |
| Sacramento | 236,657 | 49.52% | 235,539 | 49.29% | 5,670 | 1.19% | 1,118 | 0.23% | 477,866 |
| San Benito | 9,851 | 52.61% | 8,698 | 46.45% | 176 | 0.94% | 1,153 | 6.16% | 18,725 |
| San Bernardino | 227,789 | 43.57% | 289,306 | 55.34% | 5,682 | 1.09% | -61,517 | -11.77% | 522,777 |
| San Diego | 526,437 | 46.33% | 596,033 | 52.45% | 13,874 | 1.22% | -69,596 | -6.12% | 1,136,344 |
| San Francisco | 296,772 | 83.02% | 54,355 | 15.21% | 6,338 | 1.77% | 242,417 | 67.82% | 357,465 |
| San Joaquin | 87,012 | 45.83% | 100,978 | 53.18% | 1,874 | 0.99% | -13,966 | -7.36% | 189,864 |
| San Luis Obispo | 58,742 | 45.52% | 67,995 | 52.69% | 2,313 | 1.79% | -9,253 | -7.17% | 129,050 |
| San Mateo | 197,922 | 69.48% | 83,315 | 29.25% | 3,620 | 1.27% | 114,607 | 40.23% | 284,857 |
| Santa Barbara | 90,314 | 53.17% | 76,806 | 45.22% | 2,741 | 1.61% | 13,508 | 7.95% | 169,861 |
| Santa Clara | 386,100 | 63.94% | 209,094 | 34.63% | 8,622 | 1.43% | 177,006 | 29.31% | 603,816 |
| Santa Cruz | 89,102 | 72.98% | 30,354 | 24.86% | 2,628 | 2.15% | 58,748 | 48.12% | 122,084 |
| Shasta | 24,339 | 31.31% | 52,249 | 67.22% | 1,143 | 1.47% | -27,910 | -35.91% | 77,731 |
| Sierra | 646 | 33.16% | 1,249 | 64.12% | 53 | 2.72% | -603 | -30.95% | 1,948 |
| Siskiyou | 7,880 | 37.71% | 12,673 | 60.64% | 346 | 1.66% | -4,793 | -22.93% | 20,899 |
| Solano | 85,096 | 57.17% | 62,301 | 41.86% | 1,440 | 0.97% | 22,795 | 15.32% | 148,837 |
| Sonoma | 148,261 | 67.18% | 68,204 | 30.90% | 4,225 | 1.91% | 80,057 | 36.28% | 220,690 |
| Stanislaus | 58,829 | 40.40% | 85,407 | 58.65% | 1,388 | 0.95% | -26,578 | -18.25% | 145,624 |
| Sutter | 9,602 | 31.85% | 20,254 | 67.19% | 289 | 0.96% | -10,652 | -35.34% | 30,145 |
| Tehama | 7,504 | 32.01% | 15,572 | 66.42% | 368 | 1.57% | -8,068 | -34.41% | 23,444 |
| Trinity | 2,782 | 42.71% | 3,560 | 54.66% | 171 | 2.63% | -778 | -11.95% | 6,513 |
| Tulare | 32,494 | 32.87% | 65,399 | 66.15% | 967 | 0.98% | -32,905 | -33.28% | 98,860 |
| Tuolumne | 10,104 | 38.51% | 15,745 | 60.02% | 386 | 1.47% | -5,641 | -21.50% | 26,235 |
| Ventura | 148,859 | 47.53% | 160,314 | 51.19% | 4,020 | 1.28% | -11,455 | -3.66% | 313,193 |
| Yolo | 42,885 | 59.34% | 28,005 | 38.75% | 1,379 | 1.91% | 14,880 | 20.59% | 72,269 |
| Yuba | 5,687 | 31.55% | 12,076 | 67.00% | 261 | 1.45% | -6,389 | -35.45% | 18,024 |
| Total | 6,745,485 | 54.31% | 5,509,826 | 44.36% | 166,042 | 1.34% | 1,235,659 | 9.95% | 12,421,353 |
Shift by county
Trend by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold
|
Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts, with the remaining 22 going to Bush, including two that elected Democrats.[14]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 38% | 60% | Mike Thompson |
| 2nd | 62% | 37% | Wally Herger |
| 3rd | 58% | 41% | Doug Ose |
| Dan Lungren | |||
| 4th | 61% | 37% | John Doolittle |
| 5th | 38% | 61% | Bob Matsui |
| 6th | 28% | 70% | Lynn Woolsey |
| 7th | 32% | 67% | George Miller |
| 8th | 14% | 84% | Nancy Pelosi |
| 9th | 13% | 86% | Barbara Lee |
| 10th | 40% | 59% | Ellen Tauscher |
| 11th | 54% | 45% | Richard Pombo |
| 12th | 27% | 72% | Tom Lantos |
| 13th | 28% | 71% | Pete Stark |
| 14th | 30% | 68% | Anna Eshoo |
| 15th | 36% | 63% | Mike Honda |
| 16th | 36% | 63% | Zoe Lofgren |
| 17th | 33% | 66% | Sam Farr |
| 18th | 50% | 49% | Dennis Cardoza |
| 19th | 61% | 38% | George Radanovich |
| 20th | 48% | 51% | Cal Dooley |
| Jim Costa | |||
| 21st | 65% | 34% | Devin Nunes |
| 22nd | 68% | 31% | Bill Thomas |
| 23rd | 40% | 58% | Lois Capps |
| 24th | 56% | 43% | Elton Gallegly |
| 25th | 59% | 40% | Howard McKeon |
| 26th | 55% | 44% | David Dreier |
| 27th | 39% | 59% | Brad Sherman |
| 28th | 28% | 71% | Howard Berman |
| 29th | 37% | 61% | Adam Schiff |
| 30th | 33% | 66% | Henry Waxman |
| 31st | 22% | 77% | Xavier Becerra |
| 32nd | 37% | 62% | Hilda Solis |
| 33rd | 16% | 83% | Diane Watson |
| 34th | 30% | 69% | Lucille Roybal-Allard |
| 35th | 20% | 79% | Maxine Waters |
| 36th | 40% | 59% | Jane Harman |
| 37th | 25% | 74% | Juanita Millender-McDonald |
| 38th | 34% | 65% | Grace Napolitano |
| 39th | 40% | 59% | Linda Sánchez |
| 40th | 60% | 38% | Ed Royce |
| 41st | 62% | 37% | Jerry Lewis |
| 42nd | 62% | 37% | Gary Miller |
| 43rd | 41% | 58% | Joe Baca |
| 44th | 59% | 40% | Ken Calvert |
| 45th | 56% | 43% | Mary Bono Mack |
| 46th | 57% | 42% | Dana Rohrabacher |
| 47th | 50% | 49% | Loretta Sanchez |
| 48th | 58% | 40% | Christopher Cox |
| John Campbell | |||
| 49th | 63% | 36% | Darrell Issa |
| 50th | 55% | 44% | Brian Bilbray |
| 51st | 46% | 53% | Bob Filner |
| 52nd | 61% | 38% | Duncan Hunter |
| 53rd | 38% | 61% | Susan Davis |
Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.[15]
.jpg)
.jpeg)
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
|  | |