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 County results Congressional district results
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The2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
Arkansas was won by incumbentPresidentGeorge W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as ared state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush wonthe state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was both the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin and in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state's vote.
There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report | Lean R |
| Associated Press | Lean R |
| CNN | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report | Likely R |
| Newsweek | Lean R |
| New York Times | Lean R |
| Rasmussen Reports | Likely R |
| Research 2000 | Lean R |
| Washington Post | Likely R |
| Washington Times | Lean R |
| Zogby International | Toss-up |
| Washington Dispatch | Likely R |
Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%.[2]
Bush raised $1,387,692.[3] Kerry raised $466,194.[4]
Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign.[5][6]
Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. TheKerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern" focusing on the more important states such asOhio andWisconsin that were the key to winning the general election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "NorthernYankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and afterOsama bin Laden delivered a speech on theArabic news networkAl Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry the state from then on.[7][8][9]
On election day Bush performed better than what polls showed, outperforming nearly every single poll.[10]
The only areas that went forDemocratic opponentJohn Kerry were a handful ofDelta counties; the state capital,Little Rock;Pine Bluff; and only a few counties to the south. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, theVP ofBill Clinton, the latter being the home son of Arkansas.
In this election, Arkansas voted 7.3% to the right of the nation at-large.[11]
AlthoughArkansas is the home of formerDemocraticGovernor andPresidentBill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both1992 and1996,Democratic nomineesAl Gore in2000 andJohn Kerry in2004 were both unsuccessful in carryingArkansas, which went toRepublican nomineeGeorge W. Bush in both elections. This election represented, arguably, the last time Arkansas was considered competitive on a national political level, as the GOP would gain supporters due to an increased distaste for the social liberalism espoused by the Democratic Party. Over the next 12 years, various Democrats representing Arkansas federally and statewide (including all three Democratic Congressmen in the House and both Democratic Senators at the time) would retire or be defeated in "wave" elections, culminating in the state rejecting its former first lady,Hillary Clinton, by almost 27 points in the2016 election. As of the2024 election, no statewide or federally elected position (i.e. Congress) in Arkansas is held by a Democrat.
As of the2024 presidential election[update], Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in whichJackson County,Monroe County,Clark County,Mississippi County,Lawrence County,Clay County,Poinsett County,Lincoln County,Bradley County,Randolph County,Hempstead County andLittle River County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time in which the state was decided by a single digit margin of victory.
| 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas[12][13] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George W. Bush(incumbent) | Dick Cheney(incumbent) | 572,898 | 54.31% | 6 | |
| Democratic | John Kerry | John Edwards | 469,953 | 44.55% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Peter Camejo | 6,171 | 0.58% | 0 | |
| Independent | Michael Badnarik | Richard Campagna | 2,345 | 0.22% | 0 | |
| Independent | Michael Peroutka | Chuck Baldwin | 2,083 | 0.20% | 0 | |
| Independent | David Cobb | Patricia LaMarche | 1,488 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Totals | 1,054,945 | 100.00% | 6 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voter age) | 50% | |||||
| County | George W. Bush Republican | John Kerry Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Arkansas | 3,789 | 54.55% | 3,110 | 44.77% | 47 | 0.68% | 679 | 9.78% | 6,946 |
| Ashley | 4,567 | 53.65% | 3,881 | 45.59% | 64 | 0.76% | 686 | 8.06% | 8,512 |
| Baxter | 11,128 | 60.05% | 7,129 | 38.47% | 273 | 1.47% | 3,999 | 21.58% | 18,530 |
| Benton | 46,571 | 68.37% | 20,756 | 30.47% | 794 | 1.17% | 25,815 | 37.90% | 68,121 |
| Boone | 9,793 | 66.27% | 4,640 | 31.40% | 344 | 2.32% | 5,153 | 34.87% | 14,777 |
| Bradley | 2,011 | 47.33% | 2,206 | 51.92% | 32 | 0.75% | -195 | -4.59% | 4,249 |
| Calhoun | 1,340 | 58.29% | 939 | 40.84% | 20 | 0.86% | 401 | 17.45% | 2,299 |
| Carroll | 6,184 | 59.00% | 4,161 | 39.70% | 136 | 1.30% | 2,023 | 19.30% | 10,481 |
| Chicot | 1,725 | 36.26% | 2,993 | 62.92% | 39 | 0.82% | -1,268 | -26.66% | 4,757 |
| Clark | 4,144 | 44.99% | 4,990 | 54.17% | 77 | 0.84% | -846 | -9.18% | 9,211 |
| Clay | 2,759 | 45.26% | 3,264 | 53.54% | 73 | 1.20% | -505 | -8.28% | 6,096 |
| Cleburne | 7,107 | 60.43% | 4,517 | 38.41% | 137 | 1.16% | 2,590 | 22.02% | 11,761 |
| Cleveland | 2,009 | 57.47% | 1,450 | 41.48% | 37 | 1.06% | 559 | 15.99% | 3,496 |
| Columbia | 5,729 | 57.82% | 4,108 | 41.46% | 72 | 0.72% | 1,621 | 16.36% | 9,909 |
| Conway | 4,009 | 49.59% | 3,982 | 49.26% | 93 | 1.15% | 27 | 0.33% | 8,084 |
| Craighead | 15,818 | 53.08% | 13,665 | 45.85% | 318 | 1.07% | 2,153 | 7.23% | 29,801 |
| Crawford | 13,391 | 65.64% | 6,764 | 33.16% | 246 | 1.20% | 6,627 | 32.48% | 20,401 |
| Crittenden | 6,930 | 45.29% | 8,277 | 54.10% | 93 | 0.61% | -1,347 | -8.81% | 15,300 |
| Cross | 3,864 | 54.62% | 3,135 | 44.32% | 75 | 1.06% | 729 | 10.30% | 7,074 |
| Dallas | 1,700 | 50.18% | 1,671 | 49.32% | 17 | 0.50% | 29 | 0.86% | 3,388 |
| Desha | 1,729 | 37.21% | 2,851 | 61.35% | 67 | 1.45% | -1,122 | -24.14% | 4,647 |
| Drew | 3,262 | 52.20% | 2,952 | 47.24% | 35 | 0.56% | 310 | 4.96% | 6,249 |
| Faulkner | 21,514 | 58.64% | 14,538 | 39.63% | 634 | 1.73% | 6,976 | 19.01% | 36,686 |
| Franklin | 4,181 | 57.36% | 3,008 | 41.27% | 100 | 1.37% | 1,173 | 16.09% | 7,289 |
| Fulton | 2,522 | 50.90% | 2,370 | 47.83% | 63 | 1.27% | 152 | 3.07% | 4,955 |
| Garland | 21,734 | 54.13% | 18,040 | 44.93% | 380 | 0.95% | 3,694 | 9.20% | 40,154 |
| Grant | 4,205 | 62.11% | 2,524 | 37.28% | 41 | 0.61% | 1,681 | 24.83% | 6,770 |
| Greene | 7,237 | 51.86% | 6,564 | 47.04% | 154 | 1.10% | 673 | 4.82% | 13,955 |
| Hempstead | 3,580 | 48.04% | 3,817 | 51.22% | 55 | 0.74% | -237 | -3.18% | 7,452 |
| Hot Spring | 5,960 | 49.40% | 5,901 | 48.91% | 204 | 1.69% | 59 | 0.49% | 12,065 |
| Howard | 2,736 | 55.35% | 2,166 | 43.82% | 41 | 0.83% | 570 | 11.53% | 4,943 |
| Independence | 7,430 | 57.11% | 5,443 | 41.83% | 138 | 1.06% | 1,987 | 15.28% | 13,011 |
| Izard | 2,833 | 51.57% | 2,586 | 47.08% | 74 | 1.35% | 247 | 4.49% | 5,493 |
| Jackson | 2,624 | 42.19% | 3,515 | 56.52% | 80 | 1.29% | -891 | -14.33% | 6,219 |
| Jefferson | 10,218 | 33.51% | 19,675 | 64.52% | 600 | 1.97% | -9,457 | -31.01% | 30,493 |
| Johnson | 4,311 | 53.59% | 3,622 | 45.03% | 111 | 1.38% | 689 | 8.56% | 8,044 |
| Lafayette | 1,604 | 50.27% | 1,567 | 48.11% | 20 | 0.63% | 37 | 1.16% | 3,191 |
| Lawrence | 2,951 | 44.61% | 3,544 | 53.58% | 120 | 1.81% | -593 | -8.97% | 6,615 |
| Lee | 1,492 | 36.57% | 2,548 | 62.45% | 40 | 0.98% | -1,056 | -25.88% | 4,080 |
| Lincoln | 1,921 | 46.75% | 2,149 | 52.30% | 39 | 0.95% | -228 | -5.55% | 4,109 |
| Little River | 2,575 | 48.64% | 2,677 | 50.57% | 42 | 0.80% | -102 | -1.93% | 5,294 |
| Logan | 5,076 | 59.36% | 3,361 | 39.31% | 114 | 1.33% | 1,715 | 20.05% | 8,551 |
| Lonoke | 14,398 | 65.36% | 7,454 | 33.84% | 178 | 0.80% | 6,944 | 31.52% | 22,030 |
| Madison | 3,873 | 60.67% | 2,421 | 37.92% | 90 | 1.41% | 1,452 | 22.75% | 6,384 |
| Marion | 4,127 | 60.10% | 2,602 | 37.89% | 138 | 2.01% | 1,525 | 22.21% | 6,867 |
| Miller | 8,448 | 57.56% | 6,139 | 41.82% | 91 | 0.62% | 2,309 | 15.74% | 14,678 |
| Mississippi | 6,121 | 43.25% | 7,593 | 53.65% | 439 | 3.11% | -1,472 | -10.40% | 14,153 |
| Monroe | 1,586 | 43.25% | 2,049 | 55.88% | 32 | 0.87% | -463 | -12.63% | 3,667 |
| Montgomery | 2,367 | 59.80% | 1,524 | 38.50% | 67 | 1.69% | 843 | 21.30% | 3,958 |
| Nevada | 1,752 | 50.39% | 1,694 | 48.72% | 31 | 0.89% | 58 | 1.67% | 3,477 |
| Newton | 2,779 | 63.48% | 1,506 | 34.40% | 93 | 2.11% | 1,273 | 29.08% | 4,378 |
| Ouachita | 5,345 | 50.19% | 5,188 | 48.71% | 117 | 1.09% | 157 | 1.48% | 10,650 |
| Perry | 2,435 | 54.95% | 1,921 | 43.35% | 75 | 1.69% | 514 | 11.60% | 4,431 |
| Phillips | 3,161 | 35.65% | 5,642 | 63.62% | 65 | 0.73% | -2,481 | -27.97% | 8,868 |
| Pike | 2,013 | 59.79% | 1,310 | 38.91% | 44 | 1.30% | 703 | 20.88% | 3,367 |
| Poinsett | 3,555 | 46.03% | 4,069 | 52.69% | 99 | 1.28% | -514 | -6.66% | 7,723 |
| Polk | 5,192 | 66.57% | 2,473 | 31.71% | 134 | 1.72% | 2,719 | 34.86% | 7,799 |
| Pope | 13,614 | 65.13% | 7,100 | 33.97% | 188 | 0.90% | 6,514 | 31.16% | 20,902 |
| Prairie | 2,030 | 56.02% | 1,562 | 43.10% | 32 | 0.88% | 468 | 12.92% | 3,624 |
| Pulaski | 67,903 | 44.20% | 84,532 | 55.03% | 1,185 | 0.77% | -16,629 | -10.83% | 153,620 |
| Randolph | 3,158 | 47.37% | 3,412 | 51.18% | 97 | 1.44% | -254 | -3.81% | 6,667 |
| St. Francis | 3,815 | 39.79% | 5,684 | 59.28% | 89 | 0.93% | -1,869 | -19.49% | 9,588 |
| Saline | 24,864 | 63.15% | 14,153 | 35.94% | 359 | 0.92% | 10,711 | 27.21% | 39,376 |
| Scott | 2,514 | 62.26% | 1,473 | 36.48% | 51 | 1.26% | 1,041 | 25.78% | 4,038 |
| Searcy | 2,565 | 64.25% | 1,370 | 34.32% | 57 | 1.44% | 1,195 | 29.93% | 3,992 |
| Sebastian | 27,303 | 61.76% | 16,479 | 37.27% | 429 | 0.97% | 10,824 | 24.49% | 44,211 |
| Sevier | 2,516 | 54.68% | 2,035 | 44.23% | 50 | 1.08% | 481 | 10.45% | 4,601 |
| Sharp | 4,097 | 54.85% | 3,265 | 43.71% | 108 | 1.45% | 832 | 11.14% | 7,470 |
| Stone | 3,188 | 57.45% | 2,255 | 40.64% | 106 | 1.91% | 933 | 16.81% | 5,549 |
| Union | 10,502 | 58.89% | 7,071 | 39.65% | 259 | 1.46% | 3,431 | 19.24% | 17,832 |
| Van Buren | 3,988 | 54.08% | 3,310 | 44.89% | 76 | 1.03% | 678 | 9.19% | 7,374 |
| Washington | 35,726 | 55.73% | 27,597 | 43.05% | 780 | 1.22% | 8,129 | 12.68% | 64,103 |
| White | 17,001 | 64.34% | 9,129 | 34.55% | 295 | 1.12% | 7,872 | 29.79% | 26,425 |
| Woodruff | 1,021 | 33.74% | 1,972 | 65.17% | 33 | 1.09% | -951 | -31.43% | 3,026 |
| Yell | 3,678 | 55.23% | 2,913 | 43.75% | 68 | 1.03% | 765 | 11.48% | 6,659 |
| Totals | 572,898 | 54.31% | 469,953 | 44.55% | 12,094 | 1.14% | 102,945 | 9.76% | 1,054,945 |
| Democratic Hold | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic |
Bush won all four congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.[14]
| District | Bush | Kerry | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 52% | 47% | Marion Berry |
| 2nd | 51% | 48% | Vic Snyder |
| 3rd | 62% | 36% | John Boozman |
| 4th | 51% | 48% | Mike Ross |
Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to theElectoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4congressional districts and 2senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as afaithless elector.
The electors of each state and theDistrict of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted forGeorge W. Bush andDick Cheney:
State and district results of the2004 United States presidential election | ||
|---|---|---|
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