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 County results Bunning: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Mongiardo: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to theUnited States Senate in other states as well as elections to theUnited States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.Incumbent Republican U.S. SenatorJim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State SenatorDaniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.
Former GovernorPaul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in theDemocratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled onDaniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator fromHazard, Kentucky.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 142,162 | 64.92% | |
| Democratic | David L. Williams | 76,807 | 35.08% | |
| Total votes | 218,969 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 96,545 | 84.00% | |
| Republican | Barry Metcalf | 18,395 | 16.00% | |
| Total votes | 114,940 | 100.00% | ||
During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one ofSaddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife.[3][4]
Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.
The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is onCentral Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of PresidentGeorge W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] | Lean R | November 1, 2004 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Jim Bunning (R) | Daniel Mongiardo (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[6][A] | October 28–30, 2004 | 631 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 42% | 5% | 2% |
| The Courier-Journal[7] | October 18–20, 2004 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[8][A] | October 17–19, 2004 | 623 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 39% | 6% | 2% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[9][B] | October 15–17, 2004 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43%[b] | 43% | – | 14% |
| 39% | 40% | – | 21% | ||||
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[9][B] | October 6–7, 2004 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47%[b] | 39% | – | 14% |
| 43% | 37% | – | 20% | ||||
| SurveyUSA[10][A] | October 4–6, 2004 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 40% | 7% | 2% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[11] | October 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 39% | – | 11% |
| The Courier-Journal[7] | September 10–15, 2004 | 657 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 34% | – | 15% |
| SurveyUSA[12][A] | September 7–9, 2004 | 659 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 54% | 35% | 9% | 2% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D)[13][14][C] | May 19–20, 2004 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Bunning (incumbent) | 873,507 | 50.66% | +0.91% | |
| Democratic | Daniel Mongiardo | 850,855 | 49.34% | +0.18% | |
| Turnout | 1,724,362 | ||||
| Republicanhold | Swing | ||||
| County | Bunning | Votes | Mongiardo | Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adair | 69% | 4,857 | 31% | 2,151 |
| Allen | 70% | 4,640 | 30% | 2,030 |
| Anderson | 51% | 4,676 | 49% | 4,540 |
| Ballard | 43% | 1,752 | 57% | 2,331 |
| Barren | 58% | 8,749 | 42% | 6,459 |
| Bath | 37% | 1,673 | 63% | 2,910 |
| Bell | 44% | 4,442 | 56% | 5,646 |
| Boone | 71% | 31,162 | 29% | 12,543 |
| Bourbon | 46% | 3,614 | 54% | 4,250 |
| Boyd | 49% | 10,181 | 51% | 10,713 |
| Boyle | 52% | 6,179 | 48% | 5,806 |
| Bracken | 66% | 2,249 | 34% | 1,183 |
| Breathitt | 28% | 1,607 | 72% | 4,201 |
| Breckinridge | 57% | 4,633 | 43% | 3,550 |
| Bullitt | 57% | 15,675 | 43% | 11,913 |
| Butler | 70% | 3,665 | 30% | 1,601 |
| Caldwell | 50% | 3,025 | 50% | 3,034 |
| Calloway | 51% | 7,456 | 49% | 7,063 |
| Campbell | 64% | 24,603 | 36% | 14,079 |
| Carlisle | 48% | 1,327 | 52% | 1,412 |
| Carroll | 48% | 1,788 | 52% | 1,971 |
| Carter | 45% | 4,794 | 55% | 5,754 |
| Casey | 75% | 4,483 | 25% | 1,476 |
| Christian | 63% | 12,331 | 37% | 7,304 |
| Clark | 48% | 7,047 | 52% | 7,559 |
| Clay | 62% | 4,336 | 38% | 2,643 |
| Clinton | 77% | 3,094 | 23% | 937 |
| Crittenden | 55% | 2,214 | 45% | 1,813 |
| Cumberland | 73% | 2,103 | 27% | 782 |
| Daviess | 51% | 20,148 | 49% | 19,739 |
| Edmonson | 62% | 3,165 | 38% | 1,942 |
| Elliott | 28% | 801 | 72% | 2,025 |
| Estill | 55% | 2,892 | 45% | 2,414 |
| Fayette | 41% | 50,209 | 59% | 70,798 |
| Fleming | 52% | 3,080 | 48% | 2,815 |
| Floyd | 29% | 5,015 | 71% | 12,092 |
| Franklin | 34% | 7,998 | 66% | 15,324 |
| Fulton | 46% | 1,237 | 54% | 1,426 |
| Gallatin | 59% | 1,736 | 41% | 1,184 |
| Garrard | 60% | 3,767 | 40% | 2,556 |
| Grant | 65% | 5,497 | 35% | 3,007 |
| Graves | 48% | 7,448 | 52% | 8,036 |
| Grayson | 62% | 5,894 | 38% | 3,618 |
| Green | 68% | 3,324 | 32% | 1,556 |
| Greenup | 50% | 7,804 | 50% | 7,874 |
| Hancock | 48% | 1,834 | 52% | 2,010 |
| Hardin | 57% | 19,916 | 43% | 14,910 |
| Harlan | 31% | 3,340 | 69% | 7,265 |
| Harrison | 50% | 3,738 | 50% | 3,702 |
| Hart | 56% | 3,518 | 44% | 2,785 |
| Henderson | 47% | 8,419 | 53% | 9,490 |
| Henry | 52% | 3,266 | 48% | 3,024 |
| Hickman | 49% | 1,093 | 51% | 1,159 |
| Hopkins | 56% | 10,161 | 44% | 7,930 |
| Jackson | 78% | 3,755 | 22% | 1,070 |
| Jefferson | 40% | 134,699 | 60% | 198,541 |
| Jessamine | 56% | 10,002 | 44% | 7,730 |
| Johnson | 59% | 5,242 | 41% | 3,711 |
| Kenton | 65% | 42,158 | 35% | 22,759 |
| Knott | 19% | 1,345 | 81% | 5,811 |
| Knox | 59% | 6,685 | 41% | 4,591 |
| LaRue | 60% | 3,429 | 40% | 2,241 |
| Laurel | 67% | 14,427 | 33% | 7,014 |
| Lawrence | 54% | 3,322 | 46% | 2,790 |
| Lee | 59% | 1,606 | 41% | 1,126 |
| Leslie | 51% | 2,438 | 49% | 2,339 |
| Letcher | 32% | 2,751 | 68% | 5,884 |
| Lewis | 70% | 3,562 | 30% | 1,509 |
| Lincoln | 57% | 4,870 | 43% | 3,695 |
| Livingston | 45% | 2,025 | 55% | 2,520 |
| Logan | 59% | 5,847 | 41% | 4,099 |
| Lyon | 45% | 1,680 | 55% | 2,082 |
| Madison | 50% | 14,743 | 50% | 14,790 |
| Magoffin | 43% | 2,100 | 57% | 2,816 |
| Marion | 41% | 2,881 | 59% | 4,112 |
| Marshall | 48% | 7,191 | 52% | 7,937 |
| Martin | 65% | 2,744 | 35% | 1,497 |
| Mason | 59% | 3,884 | 41% | 2,748 |
| McCracken | 52% | 14,934 | 48% | 13,940 |
| McCreary | 71% | 3,603 | 29% | 1,501 |
| McLean | 49% | 2,078 | 51% | 2,179 |
| Meade | 53% | 5,574 | 47% | 5,000 |
| Menifee | 39% | 946 | 61% | 1,484 |
| Mercer | 53% | 5,019 | 47% | 4,534 |
| Metcalfe | 58% | 2,260 | 42% | 1,608 |
| Monroe | 77% | 3,940 | 23% | 1,156 |
| Montgomery | 43% | 4,130 | 57% | 5,558 |
| Morgan | 39% | 1,800 | 61% | 2,758 |
| Muhlenberg | 44% | 5,604 | 56% | 7,178 |
| Nelson | 48% | 7,754 | 52% | 8,300 |
| Nicholas | 43% | 1,236 | 57% | 1,638 |
| Ohio | 56% | 5,371 | 44% | 4,202 |
| Oldham | 59% | 15,751 | 41% | 10,731 |
| Owen | 58% | 2,637 | 42% | 1,909 |
| Owsley | 63% | 1,142 | 37% | 660 |
| Pendleton | 65% | 3,824 | 35% | 2,042 |
| Perry | 23% | 2,620 | 77% | 8,659 |
| Pike | 39% | 9,672 | 61% | 15,293 |
| Powell | 41% | 1,961 | 59% | 2,806 |
| Pulaski | 67% | 16,053 | 33% | 7,848 |
| Robertson | 54% | 559 | 46% | 468 |
| Rockcastle | 69% | 3,956 | 31% | 1,812 |
| Rowan | 40% | 3,388 | 60% | 5,032 |
| Russell | 69% | 5,092 | 31% | 2,242 |
| Scott | 49% | 8,126 | 51% | 8,364 |
| Shelby | 54% | 8,544 | 46% | 7,269 |
| Simpson | 56% | 3,665 | 44% | 2,938 |
| Spencer | 57% | 3,799 | 43% | 2,821 |
| Taylor | 63% | 6,119 | 37% | 3,643 |
| Todd | 63% | 2,696 | 37% | 1,550 |
| Trigg | 58% | 3,354 | 42% | 2,457 |
| Trimble | 50% | 1,865 | 50% | 1,852 |
| Union | 49% | 2,791 | 51% | 2,880 |
| Warren | 56% | 21,258 | 44% | 16,457 |
| Washington | 56% | 2,761 | 44% | 2,146 |
| Wayne | 60% | 4,214 | 40% | 2,783 |
| Webster | 48% | 2,490 | 52% | 2,738 |
| Whitley | 64% | 8,082 | 36% | 4,620 |
| Wolfe | 33% | 911 | 67% | 1,856 |
| Woodford | 44% | 4,887 | 56% | 6,196 |
Partisan clients
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link){{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)Official campaign websites (Archived)
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See also:Political party strength in Kentucky | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
