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 County results Martinez: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Castor: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2004 United States Senate election in Florida took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to theUnited States Senate in other states as well as elections to theUnited States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.Democratic incumbentBob Graham ran unsuccessfully for president of the United States instead of seeking a fourth term.Mel Martínez won the open race to succeed Graham overBetty Castor.
Primary elections were held on August 31, 2004. Castor defeated U.S. representativePeter Deutsch to win the Democratic nomination, while Martínez won the Republican nomination over 2000 nominee Bill McCollum and businessman Doug Gallagher with the support of PresidentGeorge W. Bush.
In the general election, Martínez won the open seat with 49.4 percent of the vote to 48.3 percent for Castor. This was the first open election for this seat since1974 and the closest race of the2004 United States Senate elections.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Betty Castor | 669,346 | 58.1% | |
| Democratic | Peter Deutsch | 321,922 | 27.9% | |
| Democratic | Alex Penelas | 115,898 | 10.1% | |
| Democratic | Bernard E. Klein | 45,347 | 3.9% | |
| Total votes | 1,152,513 | 100.0% | ||
An early contender for the Republican nomination was U.S. representativeMark Foley, who raised $3 million for his Senate campaign and was seen as marginally more moderate than his opponents. However, longstanding rumors regarding Foley's sexuality came under scrutiny in thealternative press.[3][4][5][6] While Foley denounced the rumors in an unusual press conference, he did not deny them, instead arguing that his sexuality had no bearing on his ability as a legislator. Foley withdrew from the campaign on September 6, 2003, citing his father's diagnosis with cancer.[2] Foley would later resign from office in 2006 andcome out as "a gay man" afterrevelations that he had sent explicit sexual messages to teenage boys who had served ascongressional pages.
Martínez was supported by theBush administration.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mel Martínez | 522,994 | 44.9% | |
| Republican | Bill McCollum | 360,474 | 30.9% | |
| Republican | Doug Gallagher | 158,360 | 13.6% | |
| Republican | Johnnie Byrd | 68,982 | 5.9% | |
| Republican | Karen Saull | 20,365 | 1.8% | |
| Republican | Sonya March | 17,804 | 1.5% | |
| Republican | Larry Klayman | 13,257 | 1.1% | |
| Republican | William Billy Kogut | 3,695 | 0.3% | |
| Total votes | 1,165,931 | 100.0% | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Lean R(flip) | November 1, 2004 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Betty Castor (D) | Mel Martínez (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 29 – November 1, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 48% | 1% | 9% |
| FOX News/Opinion Dynamics[10] | October 30–31, 2004 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[11][A] | October 29–31, 2004 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4% | – |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 29–31, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | – | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage[13] | October 29–31, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 47% | 46% | 1% | 7% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 28–31, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 7% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup[14] | October 28–31, 2004 | 1,138 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 5% |
| 1,300 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[15] | October 27–31, 2004 | 1,098 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 49% | – | 6% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 27–30, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 26–29, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 46% | 2% | 5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 25–28, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 47% | 2% | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon[16][B] | October 26–27, 2004 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 25–27, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | – | 5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 24–27, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% |
| The New York Times[17] | October 23–27, 2004 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 10% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 23–26, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[18] | October 22–26, 2004 | 944 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 49% | – | 5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 22–25, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 22–24, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | – | 6% |
| InsiderAdvantage[13] | October 22–24, 2004 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 46% | – | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[19][A] | October 22–24, 2004 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 47% | 3% | – |
| Reuters/Zogby International[9] | October 21–24, 2004 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 47% | 1% | 8% |
| Schroth, Eldon & Associates (D)/ The Polling Company (R)[20][C] | October 19–21, 2004 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Research 2000[21][D] | October 18–21, 2004 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 4% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 18–20, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% |
| Quinnipiac University[22] | October 15–19, 2004 | 808 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% |
| 1,208 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 43% | 1%[b] | 15% | ||
| SurveyUSA[23][A] | October 15–17, 2004 | 596 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 49% | 3% | 1% |
| Mason-Dixon[24][B] | October 14–16, 2004 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% |
| University of North Florida[25] | October 10–15, 2004 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 35% | 4%[c] | 23% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 12–14, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | October 4–6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon[26][E] | October 4–5, 2004 | 625 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 1% | 12% |
| Quinnipiac University[27] | October 1–5, 2004 | 717 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | – | 5% |
| 1,083 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 40% | 2%[d] | 14% | ||
| SurveyUSA[28][A] | October 1–3, 2004 | 706 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 50% | 3% | 1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup[29] | September 18–22, 2004 | 674 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
| 843 (RV) | 49% | 43% | – | 8% | |||
| Quinnipiac University[30] | September 18–21, 2004 | 819 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 42% | 1%[b] | 14% |
| SurveyUSA[31][A] | September 12–14, 2004 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 45% | 5% | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | August 24, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
Betty Castor vs. Bill McCollum
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Betty Castor (D) | Bill McCollum (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | August 24, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 39% | – | 19% |
Peter Deutsch vs. Mel Martínez
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Peter Deutsch (D) | Mel Martínez (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | August 24, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 39% | 47% | – | 14% |
Peter Deutsch vs. Bill McCollum
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[a] | Margin of error | Peter Deutsch (D) | Bill McCollum (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[32] | August 24, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 44% | – | 19% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Melquíades Rafael Martínez Ruiz | 3,672,864 | 49.43% | +11.9% | |
| Democratic | Elizabeth Castor | 3,590,201 | 48.32% | −14.15% | |
| Veterans | Dennis F. Bradley | 166,642 | 2.24% | +2.24% | |
| Write-ins | 187 | 0.00% | +0.0% | ||
| Majority | 82,663 | 1.11% | −23.83% | ||
| Turnout | 7,429,894 | 70.92%[34] | +24.08% | ||
| Total votes | 7,429,894 | 100.00% | +3,529,732 | ||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | Swing | ||||
| County | Mel Martínez Republican | Betty Castor Democratic | Various Candidates Other Parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alachua | 43,074 | 39.63% | 63,809 | 58.71% | 1,802 | 1.65% | -20,735 | -19.08% | 108,685 |
| Baker | 6,815 | 69.16% | 2,853 | 28.95% | 186 | 1.89% | 3,962 | 40.21% | 9,854 |
| Bay | 49,639 | 67.63% | 22,190 | 30.23% | 1,564 | 2.13% | 27,449 | 37.40% | 73,393 |
| Bradford | 6,534 | 60.83% | 3,938 | 36.66% | 270 | 2.51% | 3,596 | 24.17% | 10,742 |
| Brevard | 142,394 | 54.44% | 111,477 | 42.62% | 7,682 | 2.94% | 30,917 | 11.82% | 261,553 |
| Broward | 231,266 | 33.63% | 442,728 | 64.37% | 13,780 | 2.00% | -211,462 | -30.74% | 687,774 |
| Calhoun | 3,133 | 53.70% | 2,526 | 43.30% | 175 | 3.00% | 607 | 10.40% | 5,834 |
| Charlotte | 43,079 | 55.48% | 32,837 | 42.29% | 1,729 | 2.23% | 10,242 | 13.19% | 77,645 |
| Citrus | 33,998 | 49.68% | 31,699 | 46.32% | 2,742 | 4.01% | 2,299 | 3.36% | 68,439 |
| Clay | 58,131 | 72.24% | 20,831 | 25.89% | 1,503 | 1.86% | 37,300 | 46.35% | 80,465 |
| Collier | 81,948 | 65.97% | 40,332 | 32.47% | 1,934 | 1.56% | 41,616 | 33.50% | 124,214 |
| Columbia | 14,014 | 57.15% | 9,780 | 39.89% | 726 | 2.96% | 4,234 | 17.26% | 24,520 |
| DeSoto | 4,994 | 53.58% | 4,031 | 43.25% | 295 | 3.17% | 963 | 10.33% | 9,320 |
| Dixie | 3,322 | 52.67% | 2,735 | 43.36% | 250 | 3.97% | 587 | 9.31% | 6,307 |
| Duval | 205,001 | 54.68% | 163,748 | 43.68% | 6,160 | 1.64% | 41,253 | 11.00% | 374,909 |
| Escambia | 88,787 | 63.56% | 48,274 | 34.56% | 2,632 | 1.88% | 40,513 | 29.00% | 139,693 |
| Flagler | 18,294 | 48.13% | 18,812 | 49.49% | 904 | 2.38% | -518 | -1.36% | 38,010 |
| Franklin | 2,706 | 47.13% | 2,886 | 50.26% | 150 | 2.61% | -180 | -3.13% | 5,742 |
| Gadsden | 5,230 | 25.15% | 15,246 | 73.33% | 316 | 1.52% | -10,016 | -48.18% | 20,792 |
| Gilchrist | 4,060 | 58.87% | 2,578 | 37.38% | 258 | 3.74% | 1,482 | 21.49% | 6,896 |
| Glades | 2,147 | 52.15% | 1,821 | 44.23% | 149 | 3.62% | 326 | 7.92% | 4,117 |
| Gulf | 4,086 | 57.36% | 2,858 | 40.12% | 180 | 2.53% | 1,228 | 17.24% | 7,124 |
| Hamilton | 2,206 | 44.75% | 2,597 | 52.68% | 127 | 2.58% | -391 | -7.93% | 4,930 |
| Hardee | 4,024 | 56.38% | 2,806 | 39.32% | 307 | 4.30% | 1,218 | 17.06% | 7,137 |
| Hendry | 5,350 | 55.75% | 4,027 | 41.97% | 219 | 2.28% | 1,323 | 13.78% | 9,596 |
| Hernando | 36,557 | 46.08% | 39,634 | 49.96% | 3,143 | 3.96% | -3,077 | -3.88% | 79,334 |
| Highlands | 22,326 | 54.72% | 17,196 | 42.15% | 1,278 | 3.13% | 5,130 | 12.57% | 40,800 |
| Hillsborough | 207,331 | 46.29% | 230,298 | 51.42% | 10,261 | 2.29% | -22,967 | -5.13% | 447,890 |
| Holmes | 5,114 | 63.42% | 2,608 | 32.34% | 342 | 4.24% | 2,506 | 31.08% | 8,064 |
| Indian River | 34,338 | 57.82% | 23,511 | 39.59% | 1,543 | 2.60% | 10,827 | 18.23% | 59,392 |
| Jackson | 10,449 | 53.73% | 8,605 | 44.24% | 395 | 2.04% | 1,844 | 9.49% | 19,449 |
| Jefferson | 2,722 | 36.93% | 4,504 | 61.10% | 145 | 1.97% | -1,782 | -24.17% | 7,371 |
| Lafayette | 1,768 | 54.57% | 1,390 | 42.90% | 82 | 2.53% | 378 | 11.67% | 3,240 |
| Lake | 68,425 | 56.37% | 49,635 | 40.89% | 3,319 | 2.73% | 18,790 | 15.48% | 121,379 |
| Lee | 139,810 | 59.90% | 89,048 | 38.15% | 4,531 | 1.94% | 50,762 | 21.75% | 233,389 |
| Leon | 45,453 | 34.09% | 86,180 | 64.64% | 1,691 | 1.27% | -40,727 | -30.55% | 133,324 |
| Levy | 8,735 | 53.39% | 7,129 | 43.57% | 497 | 3.04% | 1,606 | 9.82% | 16,361 |
| Liberty | 1,448 | 48.75% | 1,459 | 49.12% | 63 | 2.12% | -11 | -0.37% | 2,970 |
| Madison | 3,318 | 40.58% | 4,640 | 56.74% | 219 | 2.68% | -1,322 | -16.16% | 8,177 |
| Manatee | 72,829 | 51.53% | 64,795 | 45.85% | 3,699 | 2.62% | 8,034 | 5.68% | 141,323 |
| Marion | 73,530 | 53.23% | 60,814 | 44.02% | 3,799 | 2.75% | 12,716 | 9.21% | 138,143 |
| Martin | 39,076 | 55.41% | 29,868 | 42.35% | 1,579 | 2.23% | 9,208 | 13.06% | 70,523 |
| Miami-Dade | 367,867 | 49.21% | 366,482 | 49.02% | 13,202 | 1.77% | 1,385 | 0.19% | 747,551 |
| Monroe | 18,075 | 47.19% | 18,961 | 49.50% | 1,267 | 3.31% | -886 | -2.31% | 38,303 |
| Nassau | 21,893 | 68.40% | 9,519 | 29.74% | 595 | 1.86% | 12,374 | 38.66% | 32,007 |
| Okaloosa | 65,146 | 74.71% | 19,645 | 22.53% | 2,413 | 2.77% | 45,501 | 52.18% | 87,204 |
| Okeechobee | 5,959 | 50.00% | 5,464 | 45.84% | 496 | 4.16% | 495 | 4.16% | 11,919 |
| Orange | 188,121 | 49.15% | 187,549 | 49.00% | 7,081 | 1.85% | 572 | 0.15% | 382,751 |
| Osceola | 42,103 | 52.00% | 36,569 | 45.16% | 2,296 | 2.84% | 5,534 | 6.84% | 80,968 |
| Palm Beach | 200,442 | 37.96% | 318,042 | 60.23% | 9,566 | 1.81% | -117,600 | -22.27% | 528,050 |
| Pasco | 89,400 | 48.01% | 90,761 | 48.74% | 6,044 | 3.24% | -1,361 | -0.73% | 186,205 |
| Pinellas | 197,640 | 42.55% | 254,451 | 54.78% | 12,379 | 2.66% | -56,811 | -12.23% | 464,470 |
| Polk | 108,774 | 52.28% | 93,231 | 44.81% | 6,051 | 2.91% | 15,543 | 7.47% | 208,056 |
| Putnam | 15,941 | 52.23% | 13,701 | 44.89% | 876 | 2.87% | 2,240 | 7.34% | 30,518 |
| St. Johns | 56,251 | 66.19% | 27,319 | 32.14% | 1,420 | 1.67% | 28,932 | 34.05% | 84,990 |
| St. Lucie | 44,436 | 45.34% | 50,660 | 51.69% | 2,905 | 2.96% | -6,224 | -6.35% | 98,001 |
| Santa Rosa | 49,149 | 74.65% | 15,165 | 23.03% | 1,524 | 2.31% | 33,984 | 51.62% | 65,838 |
| Sarasota | 95,425 | 50.08% | 91,651 | 48.10% | 3,455 | 1.81% | 3,774 | 1.98% | 190,531 |
| Seminole | 102,898 | 56.11% | 76,579 | 41.76% | 3,914 | 2.13% | 26,319 | 14.35% | 183,391 |
| Sumter | 17,929 | 57.05% | 12,844 | 40.87% | 656 | 2.09% | 5,085 | 16.18% | 31,429 |
| Suwannee | 9,095 | 58.45% | 6,069 | 39.00% | 397 | 2.55% | 2,629 | 19.45% | 15,561 |
| Taylor | 4,241 | 50.17% | 3,972 | 46.98% | 241 | 2.85% | 269 | 3.19% | 8,454 |
| Union | 2,874 | 62.49% | 1,632 | 35.49% | 93 | 2.05% | 1,242 | 27.00% | 4,599 |
| Volusia | 104,032 | 46.21% | 114,932 | 51.05% | 6,174 | 2.74% | -10,900 | -4.84% | 225,138 |
| Wakulla | 5,240 | 45.10% | 6,048 | 52.05% | 331 | 2.85% | -808 | -6.95% | 11,619 |
| Walton | 16,038 | 68.56% | 6,770 | 28.94% | 585 | 2.50% | 9,268 | 39.62% | 23,393 |
| Washington | 6,414 | 63.45% | 3,452 | 34.15% | 242 | 2.39% | 2,962 | 29.30% | 10,108 |
| Totals | 3,672,864 | 49.43% | 3,590,201 | 48.32% | 166,829 | 2.24% | 82,663 | 1.11% | 7,429,894 |
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