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 County results Talent: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Carnahan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2002 United States Senate special election in Missouri was held on November 5, 2002, to decide who would serve the rest of DemocratMel Carnahan's term, after he died while campaigning and posthumously won the 2000 election. The winner would serve the remainder of the term ending in 2007. GovernorRoger Wilson appointed Carnahan's wifeJean, also a Democrat, to serve temporarily. She then decided to run to serve the remainder of the term, but she was narrowly defeated by Republican nomineeJim Talent.
Technically, the race flipped control of the Senate from Democrats to Republicans, but in reality, the Senate had adjourned before Talent could take office, and so no change in leadership occurred until the108th Congress opened session on January 3, 2003.[1] With a margin of 1.1%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2002 Senate election cycle, behind onlythe election in South Dakota.
This was one of the six Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state thatGeorge W. Bush won in the2000 presidential election.
In the November 2000 elections, Democratic Governor of MissouriMel Carnahan, who had died in a plane crash three weeks before, remained on the ballot for election to the U.S. Senate. Carnahan received more votes than his Republican opponent, incumbent SenatorJohn Ashcroft, who did not legally contest being defeated by a dead candidate. Lieutenant GovernorRoger B. Wilson ascended to serve the remaining three months of Carnahan's gubernatorial term, and promised to appoint Carnahan's widow in her husband's place should Carnahan posthumously defeat Ashcroft. Accordingly, Jean Carnahan was appointed to the Senate effective on January 3, 2001; and a special election was scheduled in 2002 for the balance of Carnahan's Senate term.[2][3]
TheSeventeenth Amendment requires that appointments to the Senate last only until a special election is held.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Jean Carnahan (incumbent) | 368,149 | 83.22 | |
| Democratic | Darrel D. Day | 74,237 | 16.78 | |
| Total votes | 442,386 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Talent | 395,994 | 89.58 | |
| Republican | Joseph A. May | 18,525 | 4.19 | |
| Republican | Doris Bass Landfather | 14,074 | 3.18 | |
| Republican | Scott Craig Babbitt | 7,705 | 1.74 | |
| Republican | Martin Lindstedt | 5,773 | 1.31 | |
| Total votes | 442,071 | 100.00 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Tamara A. Millay | 1,942 | 59.35 | |
| Libertarian | Edward Joseph Manley | 1,330 | 40.65 | |
| Total votes | 3,272 | 100.00 | ||
National security and Carnahan's vote against fellow MissourianJohn Ashcroft as attorney general were major issues in the campaign. Republicans argued Carnahan owed her vote to Ashcroft, who had lost his bid for re-election to the Senate to Carnahan's husband.[5] Talent, citing Carnahan's votes against homeland-security legislation and missile defense, accused her of being soft on national security, which she objected to, saying he was "doubt[ing] her patriotism."[6]
Jack Abramoff contributed $2,000 to Talent's 2002 senatorial campaign[7] andPreston Gates & Ellis, a former Abramoff employer, had also contributed $1,000 to Talent's campaign.[8] Talent later returned both contributions.[9] Talent's win returned Republican control of the Senate which had a small Democratic majority afterJim Jeffords left theRepublican Party to become an Independent caucusing with Democrats.
Talent's victory wasn't certified until November 21, 2002, one day before Congress adjourned, which prevented them from claiming a senate majority. He automatically became a Senator the following day because, under federal law, he formally took office the day after both chambers of Congress adjourned. Because Republicans would hold the majority in the following congress, they saw no need to hold a special session in the 107th to take advantage of their brief majority.[10][11]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Lean R(flip) | November 4, 2002 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Jean Carnahan (D) | Jim Talent (R) | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[13] | October 31 – November 3, 2002 | 958 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
Carnahan only won 26 counties and the independent city ofSt. Louis out of the state's 114 counties. However, she kept the race close by running up margins inSt. Louis and inJackson County home ofKansas City, though her victory inSt. Louis County was a close one. Ultimately Talent was able to win the seat by running up decent margins in rural areas of the state.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Talent | 935,032 | 49.80% | +1.41% | |
| Democratic | Jean Carnahan (incumbent) | 913,778 | 48.67% | −1.80% | |
| Libertarian | Tamara A. Millay | 18,345 | 0.98% | +0.55% | |
| Green | Daniel Romano | 10,465 | 0.56% | +0.11% | |
| Majority | 21,254 | 1.13% | −0.94% | ||
| Turnout | 1,877,620 | ||||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | Swing | ||||
Official campaign websites (archived)
