The2000s commodities boom,commodities super cycle[1] orChina boom was the rise of many physicalcommodity prices (such as those of food, oil, metals,chemicals andfuels) during the early 21st century (2000–2014),[2] following the Great Commodities Depression of the 1980s and 1990s. The boom was largely due to the rising demand fromemerging markets such as theBRIC countries, particularly China during the period from 1992 to 2013,[2] as well as the result of concerns over long-term supply availability.[citation needed] As China transformed itself, building entire cities and moving hundreds of millions of people, it developed an insatiable appetite for raw materials. It needed steel to build skyscrapers and railways, and it needed coal to power its factories.[3] There was a sharp down-turn in prices during 2008 and early 2009 due to the2008 financial crisis andEuropean debt crisis, but prices began to rise as demand recovered from late 2009 to mid-2010.[citation needed]
Oil began to slip downwards after mid-2010, but peaked at $101.80 on 30 and 31 January 2011, as theEgyptian revolution of 2011 broke out, leading to concerns over both the safe use of theSuez Canal and overall security inArabia itself. On 3 March, Libya's National Oil Corp said that output had halved due to the departure of foreign workers. As this happened,Brent Crude surged to a new high of above $116.00 a barrel as supply disruptions and potential for more unrest in the Middle East and North Africa continued to worry investors.[4] Thus theprice of oil kept rising into the 2010s. The commoditiessupercycle peaked in 2011,[a] "driven by a combination of strong demand from emerging nations and low supply growth".[1][b] Prior to 2002, only 5 to 10 per cent of trading in the commodities market was attributable to investors.[1] Since 2002 "30 per cent of trading is attributable to investors in the commodities market" which "has caused higher pricevolatility".[1][c]
The 2000s commodities boom is comparable to the commodity supercycles which accompaniedpost–World War II economic expansion and theSecond Industrial Revolution in the second half of the 19th century and early 20th century.[2]
The prices of raw materials were depressed and declining from, roughly, 1982 until 1998. From the mid-1980s to September 2003, theinflation-adjusted price[citation needed] of abarrel ofcrude oil onNYMEX was generally under $25/barrel. Since 1968 the price of gold has ranged widely, from a high of $850/oz ($27,300/kg) on 21 January 1980, to a low of $252.90/oz ($8,131/kg) on 21 June 1999 (London Gold Fixing).[5]
The analysis of this period is based on the work ofRobert Solow and is rooted inmacroeconomic theories of trade including theMundell–Fleming model.[6] One opinion stated that
"The volatility and interest rates found its way into commodity inputs and all sectors of the world economy."[7]
Hence, in the case of an economic crisis commodities prices follow the trends in exchange rate (coupled) and its prices decrease in case there are downward trends of diminishing money supply.[6]
Foreign exchange impacts commodities prices and so does money supply: the advent of a crisis will pull commodities prices down.[6]
A commodity price bubble, known as the 2000s commodities boom, was created following the collapse of themid-2000s housing bubble. Commodities were seen as a safe bet after thebubble economy surroundinghousing prices had gone from boom to bust in several western nations, including the USA, UK, Ireland,Greece and Spain.[citation needed] Advisers claimed that commodity prices could be predicted better than stocks, since they are traded for actual usage and the price is based on supply and demand, while stocks are bought for speculation and news immediately influence prices. Still commodity prices have fluctuated outside predictions.
The renewed interest in coal byChina's andTaiwan's energy companies and the rise of alternative power sources likewind farms helped modify coal prices over the 2000s.[citation needed]
Chlorine price steadily increased throughout 2007 and early 2008 as demand forPVC and some metals like copper, neodymium and tantalum rose due to the increased growth of theBRIC countries' demand for electrical goods.Russia increased production, but the US offset this with production cuts in the late 1990s and mid-2000s.[citation needed]
Phosphorus,rhodium,molybdenum,manganese,vanadium andpalladium are used in high grade steels, oil based lubricants,automotive catalytic converters, chemical plants' catalysts, electronics, TV screens and in radio isotopes.[8] Demand for these metals appeared to be increasing as computers and mobile phones became more popular in the mid to late 2000s.Thulium is used inx-ray tubes andneodymium is used in high strength/high grade magnets.[citation needed]
Molybdenum,rhodium,neodymium andpalladium are relatively scarce metals, whilemanganese andvanadium are, likephosphorus andsulfur, fairly abundant for minor minerals. The major metals such as iron, lead and tin are commonplace.[citation needed]
Recycling of the aluminum,ferrous metals, copper fractions, gold,palladium andplatinum in mobile phones and computers had got under way by the mid-2000s.[9][10][11][12][13]Battery recycling has helped bring down both the nickel andcadmium prices.
Sulfuric acid (an important chemical commodity used in processes such assteel processing,copper production andbioethanol production) increased in price 3.5-fold in less than 1 year while producers ofsodium hydroxide have declaredforce majeure due to flooding, precipitating similarly steep price increases.[14][15]
Both a rising global population and a sharp decline infood crop production in favour of a sharp rise inbiofuel crops helped cause a sharp rise in basic food stock prices.[16]Ethiopia also saw a drought threaten its already frail farm lands in 2007.[17] Cocoa was also affected by a bad crop in 2008, due to disease and unusually heavy rain in parts of West Africa.[citation needed]
Rising demand in bothIndia andEgypt helped to ramp up demand for American wheat during the bull market during August 2007.[18] Discounted wheat sold at about £11–£15/t. August 2007, with non-discounted wheat at slightly higher price. The November 2007 wheat futures market was trading at nearly £165/t, with November 2008 contracts at £128.50.[18] The market became rather bearish as non-futures prices froze and stagnated in December 2007.[19] The price of wheat reached record highs afterKazakhstan began to limit supplies being sold overseas in early 2008, but had slowed down by late 2008.Food riots hit Egypt on 12 April 2008, as national bread prices rose rapidly in March and April 2008.[20]
In late April 2008 rice prices hit 24cents (U.S.) per U.S. pound, more than doubling the price in just seven months. The price of wheat had risen from an already high £88 per tonne to £91 from January to March 2010, due to the bullish market and currency concerns.[21] This led to food riots in places such asHaiti, Indonesia,Côte d'Ivoire, Uzbekistan, Egypt[22][23] andEthiopia.[17]
On 31 July, leading economists predicted that food prices, especially wheat would rise inChad asRussia ended exports due to a domestic drought destroying their wheat and barley harvests.[24] By 3 August, wheat prices stood at $7.11 per bushel[25] due to the Russian export ban.
There was in increase in the demand forfertilizer fromChina andIndia. Also an increase in demand for fertilizer to create biofuels likeEthanol as a Fuel from corn in the United States, Brazil, and Europe. Increasedlivestock grew demand for moregrain and fertilizer causing grain reserves to plunge to a historic low. China put export controls on their fertilizer. Natural gas prices increased a lot during this period and that is used in the process of making some fertilizers (Haber process). Phosphate prices went up because of an increase in price ofsulfur which is an input to phosphate fertilizer.[26][27]
Prices rose modestly and briefly because ofHurricane Katrina in 2005 and 2006 but a bigger price climb came later from supply disruptions inIndia,Brazil, and other places around the world.[28]
The price ofrecycled paper has varied greatly over the last 30 or so years.[29][30][31][32][33][34] The German price of €100/£49 per tonne was typical for the year 2003[31] and it steadily rose over the years. By September 2008 saw American price of $235 per ton had fallen to just $120 per ton,[32] The slump was probably due to the economic down turn in East Asia causing the market for waste paper drying up in China.[32] 2010 prices averaged $120.32 at the start of the year, but saw a rapid rise in global prices in May 2010,[30] reaching $217.11 per ton in the US in June 2010 as China's paper market began to reopen.[30]
Coal prices rose to A$73 per tonne in September[35] and then up to A$84 per tonne in the October 2009[35] due to renewed interest by China's andTaiwan's energy companies.
During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008.[36] Commentators attributed the heavy price increases to many factors, including reports from theUnited States Department of Energy and others showing a decline inpetroleum reserves,[37] worries overpeak oil,[38] Middle East tension, and oil price speculation.[39]
For a time, geo-political events and natural disasters indirectly related to the global oil market had strong short-term effects on oil prices, such asNorth Korean missile tests,[40] the2006 conflict between Israel and Lebanon,[41] worries overIranian nuclear plans in 2006,[42]Hurricane Katrina,[43][44] and various other factors.[45] By 2008, such pressures appeared to have an insignificant impact on oil prices given the onset of theglobal recession.[46]The recession caused demand for energy to shrink in late 2008, with oil prices falling from the July 2008 high of $147 to a December 2008 low of $32.[47] Oil prices stabilized by October 2009 and established a trading range between $60 and $80.[47]
The price of oil nearly tripled from $50 to $147 from early 2007 to 2008, before plunging during the2008 financial crisis.[48] Experts debate the causes, which include the flow of money from housing and other investments into commodities to speculation and monetary policy[49] or the increasing feeling of raw materials scarcity in a fast-growing world economy and thus positions taken on those markets, such as Chinese increasing presence in Africa. An increase in oil prices tends to divert a larger share ofconsumer spending into gasoline, which creates downward pressure on economic growth in oil importing countries, as wealth flows to oil-producing states.[50]
In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year.[51] In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30[52] a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the US. The high of 2008 may have been part of broader pattern of spiking instability in the price of oil over the preceding decade.[53] This pattern of instability in oil price may be a product of peak oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.[54]
In testimony before the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on 3 June 2008, former director of the CFTC Division of Trading & Markets (responsible for enforcement)Michael Greenberger specifically named the Atlanta-basedIntercontinentalExchange, founded byGoldman Sachs,Morgan Stanley andBP as playing a key role in the speculative run-up ofoil futures prices traded off the regulated futures exchanges in London and New York.[55]
The price of oil rose to $77 per barrel on 24 June 2010 as acyclone begins to form in the south westernCaribbean.[56] The price for July 2010 was about $84–$90 per barrel ofcrude oil.
Oil prices ended the year at $101.80, falling to $100.01 per barrel on 30 and 31 January 2011.[citation needed], then theEgyptian civil war broke out, as it theoretically put the use of Suez Canal at risk.[57] Making matters worse, a gaspipeline toJordan was blown up by saboteurs in theSinai Peninsula. Prices remained steady until a dramatic drop began the2010s oil glut.
Hurricane Katrina causedJet fuel prices to rise in 2005 because of slowed down refining in theGulf Coast area, those prices dipped and the price of jet fuel went up with the price of oil through 2008.[58]
Uranium traded at about $15–$20/kg since the late 1980s due to a 10-yearsecular bear market, with a 2001 low of just over $10/kg. TheUranium bubble of 2007 started in 2005[59] and began to accelerate badly with the 2006 flooding of theCigar Lake Mine in Saskatchewan.[60][61][62]Uranium prices peaked at roughly $300/kg in mid-2007,[63] began to fall in mid-2008 and are now (end 2010) hovering about $100/kg.[64] The stock prices of many uranium mining and exploration companies rose sharply, only to fall later in this boom.[60]
There was also a resurgence of interest innuclear power by the UK government between 2006 and 2008 due to the apparently insecure nature of Middle Eastern and Russian oil and after the closure of several old and economically/environmentally unviable coal firedpower stations at the time. This helped the uranium price to rally at this date.
There was a sharp shift in the prices of gold and, to a lesser extent, both silver andplatinum. Prices were at or near an all-time high in late 2010 due to people using the precious metals as asafe haven for their money as both the de facto value of cash and thestock market prices became more erratic in the late 2000s.
The period from 1999 to 2001 marked the "Brown Bottom" after a 20-yearsecular bear market at $252.90 per troy ounce.[65] Prices increased rapidly from 2001, but the 1980 high was not exceeded until 3 January 2008 when a new maximum of $865.35 pertroy ounce was set (a.m. London Gold Fixing).[66] Another record price was set on 17 March 2008 at $1,023.50/oz ($32,900/kg) (am. London Gold Fixing).[66] In the fall of 2009, gold markets experience renewed momentum upwards due to increased demand and a weakening US dollar. On 2 December 2009, gold passed the important barrier of US$1,200 per ounce to close at $1,215.[67] Gold further rallied hitting new highs in May 2010 after the European Union debt crisis prompted further purchase of gold as a safe asset.[68][69][70]
Since April 2001, the price of gold has more than tripled in value against the US dollar,[71] prompting speculation that the long secular bear market had ended and abull market has returned.[72] Gold's price finally stood at $1,350 per troy oz on 1 July 2010.[73]
On 7 October 2010, it cost $1,364.60 per troy ounce,[74] by 7 December reached the all time nominal historic high of $1,429.05 per troy ounce.
Silver cost $4 per troy ounce in 1992,[68] started to rise rapidly in early 2004,[68] reached $18 per troy oz by late 2007, slipped badly to $10 per troy oz during theCredit Crunch of 2008,[68] but was selling in late 2009 and again in early 2010 at just under $18 per troy oz of metal.[68] A year later, the Feb 2011 average was over $30 per oz of silver.[75] On 29 April 2011, silver price reached $47.94 but fell by 12% on 2 May 2011.[68]Prices range around $20–$25 in 2013-2014.
Platinum first sold at about $350 pertroy oz in 1992[68] and stayed rather flat save for a small dip to about $325 per troy oz in the mid-1990s[68] and an equally small rise to about $375 per troy ounce in the Millennium period. It started to gain value in mid-2002[68] and grew on anexperiential curve model as the prices then began to move sharply upwards.[68] The high point was when it was trading for $2,200 per troy oz in early 2007.[68] Prices declined to $800 per troy oz in January 2008,[68] but the price had increased $1,600 per troy oz by early 2010.[68]
Titanium prices rose to over $16,000 per metric ton in 2006.[76]
Rhodium prices rose briefly during themillennium period[68] due to increased demand, then collapsed to nearly their original 1995-7starting price of $500/oz between 2002 and 2004.[68]
Later on, the mysterious and unexpected Rhodium price bubble of 2008 suddenly increased prices from just over $500/oz in late 2006 to $9,000/oz-$9,500/oz in July 2008,[68] only for the price then to tumble down only $1,000/oz in January 2009.[68][77] Both an increase in demand in theAmerican automotive industry, aherd instinct among investors, a then bullish market in rare metals and arogue speculator or roguespeculators onWall Street were all at least partly to blame for the sudden rise and fall in therare metal's price.[78]
Rhodium is mainly mined as a by-product of other metals such as platinum, so the production is based on production of other metals and therefore on demand of them, and less on the demand of rhodium.
Rhodium rose in price extremely sharply in January 2021 and by mid February 2021 it had reached an all time high of $21,400 per Troy ounce making it the most valuable metal ever sold.
Most palladium is used forcatalytic converters in the automobile industry.[79] It is also used for some medical, high grade steel, industrial, dental and electronic purposes.
Palladium prices rose sharply during themillennium period[68] due to increased demand, then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end 2002,[68] only to start to rise less dramatically in the year 2006.[68]Palladium prices in 1992 and 2002–04 was about $200/oz. It rapidly shot up to approximately $1,000/oz between 1999 and 2001 and collapsed to only $200/oz by late 2002, but is now just under $500/oz per of Palladium in 2010.[68]
In the run up to 2000, Russian supply of palladium to the global market was repeatedly delayed and disrupted[80] because the export quota was not granted on time, for political reasons. The ensuing market panic drove the palladium price to an all-time high of $1,100 pertroy ounce in January 2001.[81] Around this time, theFord Motor Company, fearing auto vehicle production disruption due to a possible palladium shortage, stockpiled large amounts of the metal purchased near the price high. When prices fell in early 2001, Ford lost nearly US$1 billion.[82] World demand for palladium increased from 100 tons in 1990 to nearly 300 tons in 2000. The global production of palladium from mines was 222 tonnes in 2006 according to theUSGS.
Because of the low availability relative to demand,rhenium is among the most expensive industrial metals, with an average price exceeding US$6,000 per kilogram, as of mid-2009. It first traded in 1928 at US$10,000 per kilogram of metal, but traded at US$250 per Troy ounce in mid-2010.[83] It traded in July 2010, at about US$4,000–4,500/kg.[84]
Aluminium is a widely used, mined, refined and trusted metal.[85][86] The fortunes of this metal are linked to the rise and fall of the aircraft, electrical andautomotive industries.[87][88]
The price of aluminium was 80US cents per lb in 1995 and 45 cents per lb in 1998 and hovered around this until the January 2003, when it started to rise to $1.50 per pound and in 2006 and $1.40 per lb in the December 2007.[89][90] It collapsed down to a mere 60 cents per lb in the November 2008, but is now hovering at about $1.00 per lb, with a new April peak of $1.10 per pound of aluminium.[89][90]
The price ofnickel boomed in the late 1990s, then imploded from around $51,000 /£36,700 pertonne in May 2007 to about $11,550/£8,300 per tonne in January 2009. Prices were only just starting to recover as of January 2010, but most of Australia's nickel mines had gone bankrupt by then.[91] As the price for high gradenickel sulphateore recovered in 2010, so did the Australian mining industry.[92]Battery recycling has helped bring down both the nickel and cadmium prices.
In the years prior to the rise ofcopper prices in late 2003 as part of the boom, various copper mining companies exibited cartel-like behaviour. This consisted of announcements made in late 2001 for production cuts for 2002 which were carried out, and a repetition of similar announcements for 2003 in late 2002.[93]
It was also noticed that acopper price bubble was occurring at the same time as the oil bubble. Copper traded at about $2,500 pertonne from 1990 until 1999, when it fell to about $1,600.[94] The price slump lasted until 2004 which saw a price surge that had copper reaching $9,000 per tonne in the May 2006, but it eventually fell down to $7,040 per tonne in early 2008.[95] When the slump came, it hit some copper mining countries like theDemocratic Republic of the Congo (D.R.C.) very hard. Mining authorities announced on 10 December 2009, that theDikulushi mine, which is situated in the D.R.C.'sKatanga Province, would close due to poor copper prices.[96] It reopened in July 2010. The price rose again to over $10,000 in early 2011 but soon fell to below $8,000, around where it was fairly stable during 2012.[97] The high prices have caused a heavy increase in theft of copper cables, causing interruptions in electrical supply.[98][99] During 2013-2014 there has been a slow decline to below $7,000.
Chilean state-owned copper giantCodelco made large gains during the boom.[100] Artisan miners known aspirquineros also made considerable profits albeit some found it difficult toreskill togold mining after copper prices fell in 2008.[101][102]
The prices ofiron ore rose sharply from around $10 per tonne in 2003 to around $170 in April 2009 (transported to China). After that (written September 2013) the price was between $100 and $150;[105] in September 2014 it started dropping precipitously, and was below $70 per ton in December 2014. The price ofsteel (at steel plants in Japan) has risen from around $300 per tonne in 2003 to $1,000 in late 2008, stabilizing at $800 in 2012.[106]
The rise in prices made abandoned mines to reopen and new ones to open. It took some years to open mines, so some got a scaled up production around the time the prices dropped (drop partly caused by such production). Furthermore, started construction projects had to be finished so demand only reacted slowly to the rising prices.
The price oflead rose sharply in early 2007, then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end of the next year.[107] Lead prices began to rise in early 2007 due to increased worldwide demand. Prices were about $1,200 per tonne of lead in the July, then rose to $2,220 pertonne by September and collapsed back down to $1,200 per tonne in the October of that year. Despite the bullish market condition, the price had collapsed by the July 2009 and was only worth about $1,400 per tonne of lead.[108] The lead and zinc markets became ratherbearish for several months afterwards. Prices were hovering at between $1,770 and $2,175 per tonne[109] as the markets became more bullish and increased prices after China's car scrapping scheme had caused a general upturn in lead, zinc, cadmium and aluminium production.[109][110] By the June 2010, prices stood at only $870 per tonne, and were back to about $2,200 in the July 2010.[110][111][112][113]
The price ofzinc rose sharply in early 2007 after a five-year secular bear market, then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end of the next year.[107] Zinc also exhibited similar bullish trading patterns as most metals did since 2004, but with a different overall price.[110]
Zinc sale prices were 80 cents per pound in July 2008,[114] which was typical of its 2004–2008 pricing levels.[114] By January 2009 it had bottomed out and was worth 45 cents per lb.[114] A spectacular bull market and increased Chinese interest ingalvanised construction steel caused prices to top off at $1.20 per pound of metal by January 2010.[114] It then quickly fell back to a routine 80 cents by July 2010.[114]
Zinc is popular in manufacturing and building; its ability to createcorrosion-resistantzinc plating of steel (hot-dip galvanizing) is the major application for zinc. Other applications are in batteries and alloys, such as brass. A variety of zinc compounds are commonly used, such aszinc carbonate andzinc gluconate (as dietary supplements),zinc chloride (in deodorants),zinc pyrithione (anti-dandruff shampoos), zinc sulfide (in luminescent paints), and zinc methyl orzinc diethyl in the organic laboratory.
Neodymium, a fairly rare metal which is used in high grademagnets,[115][116][117] saw its prices rise due to increased demand, as were typical of this general market trend. The average price was $16.10 per kg in November and December 2009,[118] but it began trading in June 2010 at $20–$45 per kg.[119]
Neodymium serves as a constituent of high strengthneodymium magnets, which are widely used inloudspeakers, computerhard drives, high power-per-weightelectric motors (e.g. for those inhybrid cars) and in high efficiency generators (such as aircraft andwind turbine generators).[120]
There was also a strong resurgence of interest inwind farms by the UK government between 2008 and 2010 due to the continuing fears of insecurity in Middle Eastern oil supplies to the industrialised nations and after the closure of several old and economically/environmentally unviable coal-fuelledpower stations earlier that decade. This helped the price to rally in 2010.[citation needed]
Thecadmium,tantalum,manganese,thulium,tin, chromium,indium,columbium/niobium,cobalt,molybdenum andvanadium prices rose sharply in early 2007,[68][107] then collapsed to nearly their original starting price by the end of the next year[68][107][121] due to uncertainty about supplies matching the demand, especially those of theBRIC countries'electronics industries in iPods, computers, mobile phones, et al.
Niobium is used in the steel of gaspipe lines due to thealloy's high strength and lowcorrosion rate.[122]
Battery recycling has helped bring down both the nickel andcadmium prices. About 86% of all cadmium production was used in batteries during 2009. The rapid growth ofwind farms and heavy dutymagnets has made neodymium prices rally again and bothBrazil and China's renewed interest in high grade steel has improved the Vanadium price recently. The way these metal's prices rose and fell due to increased demand, were typical of this general market trend.
TheBaltic Dry Index is a measure of the cost of shippingdry bulk goods around the world. It increased during the mid 2000s because of global demand for manufactured goods initially and in 2008 the price of oil drove the index higher to an all time high of 11,440 points in May 2008. Because of theGreat Recession the index dropped to 715 points in late 2008.[123]
In 2002, 95% puresulphuric acid cost £55 and 90% acid cost £40 per tonne.[124] Due to floods inPoland and increased demand in China, the acid's price soared to $329/tonne in May 2008, from just $90/tonne in October 2007. It has become steadily cheaper since the start of 2010.
Mostindustrial chemicals exhibited similarprice trends due to bad weather in the EU and USA along with increased demand by theBRIC nations.
Chlorine products such asP.V.C. plastics,caustic soda, industrial paper bleach and ordinary household and industrialbleachs saw their prices rise sharply in 2008 as a result of volatility on the world'schlorine market.
As a result of fight of supply and high operating rates in May 1997, two chlorine producers took the bold initiative of calling for an average price rise of $25 per short ton. Other producers were considering bringing the total price increase for the 1997 product year to date of up to $80 per short and fob ton, from $45–$50 per short and fob ton in May 1996. This occurred as both rapidly ascending demand from thevinyl polymer chain market and the unusually strong seasonal demand and no new production capacity on the immediate horizon coincided. The price increase had its firm foundations in the incumbent bullish market dynamics of the mid-2000s.Occidental Chemical Corporation suggested a minor rise as other firms took a "wait-and-see approach" andRussia raised production slightly to ease the cost of domestic bleach and swimming pool chloro-tablet costs.[citation needed]
Chlorine prices rose in May 2005 as both growing energy costs, shrinking supply and highmarket tariffs in the EU,NAFTA and Latin America,[125] the increased use of chlorine-based chemicals for the aquatics industry.[125] The price of chlorine caustic was $350 perdry short ton, up from $100 last March.[125] Chlorine was priced at $330 per dry short ton, up $130 on 2008's price of $200.[125]
The gas's price steadily increased throughout 2007 and early 2008 as demand forP.V.C. and some metals like copper, Neodymium and Tantalum rose due to the increased growth of theBRIC countries demand for electrical goods.
America's chlorine prices rose suddenly from about $125–$150 per ton fob between June and August 2009 months on a sharp rise in chlor-alkali production and capacity cuts after a year in which production quotes largely stay flat.[126] The spot price surged more than 300% to about $475–$525 ton fob in August 2009.[126] BothRussia and the European Union were also increasing chlorine production to stabilise world prices.[126]
Non discounted Americanchlorine was priced at $390–410 short ton and discounted prices stood at $300 pershort ton between November 2009 and February 2010.[127] As the European chlorine production spiked in November to a daily output of 26,971 tonnes, before falling to 23,667 short ton in December due to the Christmas and New Year holidays.[127] Production was about European production was 25.8% higher than December 2008 levels.[127]
The price ofcotton was rising in 2010 and peaked in early 2011. India the worlds second largest exporter restricted shipments to help its domestictextiles industry[128]
Many firms, individuals, andhedge funds went bankrupt or suffered heavy losses due to purchasing commodities at high prices only to see their values decline sharply in mid to late 2008. Many manufacturing companies were also crippled by the rising cost of oil and other commodities such astransition metals.
The food and fuel crises were both discussed at the34th G8 summit in July 2008.[129]
In the second half of 2008, the prices of most commodities fell dramatically on expectations of diminished demand in the world recession and credit crunch.[130] Prices began to rise again in late 2009 to mid-2010 (as supply could not meet demand), triggering another round of boom that lasted until 2014, when fossil fuels and metals prices collapsed in a far more prolonged fashion that looks to far eclipse that of 2008.[citation needed]
The heavy price volatility caused a sudden boom then bust in the mining industry across the world, e.g. inDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia,Zimbabwe, Canada, China, Sweden and Australia. The $900,000,000Tenke Fungurume copper-cobalt mining project in theDemocratic Republic of Congo was cleared in February 2008 for building to start in a years time and thenLuanshya Copper Mine in Zambia closed on 6 March 2009.Zimbabwe and Australia also saw nickel and copper mines open close during this time. China opened several new coal mines inQinghai province during the years 2007 and 2008.[131][132][133][134][135][136][137]
Coincidentally, long-onlycommodity index funds started just before the bubbles, became popular at the same time – by one estimate investment increased from $90 billion in 2006 to $200 billion at the end of 2007, while commodity prices increased 71% – which raised concern as to whether these index funds caused the commodity bubble.[138] The empirical research has been mixed.[138]
In February 2008, analyst Gary Dorsch wrote:
Commodities have historically been regarded as wildly volatile and risky, but since 2006, crude oil, gold, copper, silver, platinum, cocoa, and grains have soared, hitting record highs, and have trounced returns in the mismanagedG-7 stock markets ... A remarkable run-up in prices of wheat, corn, oilseeds, rice, and dairy products, along with sharply higher energy prices, have been blamed on supply shortfalls, strong demand for bio-fuels, and an inflow of $150 billion from investment funds. From a year ago, Chicago wheat futures have soared +120%, corn +20%, and soybeans are +80% higher. Rough rice is up 55%, and platinum touched $2,000 /oz, up 80% from a year ago, while US cocoa futures hit a 24-year high ... Fund managers are pouring money into commodities across the board as a hedge against the explosive growth of the world's money supply, and competitive currency devaluations engineered by central banks.[139]
EconomistJames D. Hamilton has argued that the increase in oil prices in the period of 2007 to 2008 was a significant cause of the recession. He evaluated several different approaches to estimating the impact of oil price shocks on the economy, including some methods that had previously shown a decline in the relationship between oil price shocks and the overall economy. All of these methods "support a common conclusion; had there been no increase in oil prices between 2007:Q3 and 2008:Q2, the US economy would not have been in a recession over the period 2007:Q4 through 2008:Q3".[140] Hamilton's own model, a time-series econometric forecast based on data up to 2003, showed that the decline in GDP could have been successfully predicted to almost its full extent given knowledge of the price of oil. The results imply that oil prices were entirely responsible for the recession; however, Hamilton himself acknowledged that this was probably not the case but maintained that it showed that oil price increases made a significant contribution to the downturn in economic growth.[141]
In the mid-2010s,China experienced a stock market crash and economic slowdown as it moved from manufacturing to a services industry.[142] Leftistpink tide governments in Latin America who created unsustainable policies based on China's commodity trade in the 2000s began to experience economic difficulties and began to experience a political decline as income diminished due to the end of the commodities boom.[143][144][145] This downturn in commodities prices also had an important effect on non-left aligned countries in Latin America such as Mexico, Colombia, Peru or Chile, whose economies are largely dependent on mineral resource extraction by foreign companies, plummeting the economic growth in those years. However, these countries recovered economically when oil prices stabilized, unlike the Venezuelan economy. As oil prices declined,Russia also had its economy falter as a result of mismanagement.[146]
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All prices are in either £, €, $/US$ or A$, depending on the nationality of sources available.
| Commodity | Image | 1990–2010 lowest price per unit | 1990–2010 highest price per unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat |  | £11-£15 for discounted and slightly higher for non-discounted wheat (2007) | £91 for both (2010) |
| Recycled paper |  | £10 (2009) | $235 (2008) |
| Crude oil |  | $30 (2005) | $147.30 (2008) |
| Copper |  | $1,600 (1999) | $9,000 (2006) |
| Gold |  | $252.90 (1999) | Over $1900 (2011)[147] |
| Aluminum |  | $0.45 (1998) | $1.50 (2006) |
| Platinum |  | $325 (1994) | $2,200 (2007) |
| Silver |  | $4 (1992) | $49.80 (April 2011)[148] |
| Coal |  | A$72.00 (2009) | A$112.50 (2010) |
| Nickel |  | £8,300 (2009) | £36,700 (2007) |
| Uranium |  | $10 (2001) | $300 (2007) |
| Rhodium |  | $500 (1995–1997, 2002–2004) | $9,500 (2008) |
| Palladium |  | $200 (1992, 2002–2004) | $1,100 (2001) |
| Zinc |  | $0.45 (2009) | $1.20 (2010) |
| Neodymium |  | $16.10 (2000s) | $45 (2010) |
| Lead |  | $870 (2010) | $2,220 (2007) |
| Rhenium |  | $4,000–$4,500 (2010) | $6,000 (2009) |
| Chlorine |  | $45–$50 for both classes (1996) | $475–$525 (2009) |
| Sulfuric acid |  | £55 for 95% pure and £40 for 90% pure (2002) | $329 for both in (2008) |
The difference between the subsidised and market price of bread [in Egypt] is exploited at every stage of production and sale, by importers, millers, warehousers, traders, bakers and consumers alike.
The fate of Latin America's left turn has been closely associated with the commodities boom (or supercycle) of the 2000s, largely due to rising demand from emerging markets, notably China.
As China industrialized in the first decade of the century, its demand for raw materials rose, pushing up the prices of South American minerals, fuels, and oilseeds. From 2000 to 2013, Chinese trade with Latin America rocketed from $12 billion to over $275 billion. ... Its loans have helped sustain leftist governments pursuing otherwise unsustainable policies in Argentina, Ecuador, and Venezuela, whose leaders welcomed Chinese aid as an alternative to the strict conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund or the financial markets. ... The Chinese-fueled commodity boom, which ended only recently, lifted Latin America to new heights. The region -and especially South America- enjoyed faster economic growth, a steep fall in poverty, a decline in extreme income inequality, and a swelling of the middle class.
