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| Turnout | 72.81% (of registered voters) 2.12pp53.51% (of eligible voters) 5.57pp[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results Congressional district results
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The1988 United States presidential election in California took place on November 8, 1988, and was part of the1988 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 representatives, or electors to theElectoral College, who voted forpresident andvice president.
California voted for theRepublican nominee,Vice PresidentGeorge H. W. Bush, over theDemocratic nominee,Massachusetts governorMichael Dukakis by a margin of 3.57 percent. Bush won forty-four of the state's fifty-eight counties, but the election was kept close by Dukakis’ strong performance in theBay Area and his victory inLos Angeles, the state's most populated county. Also, Dukakis won at least 31% of the vote in every county and at least 40 percent in forty of them. Much likeVermont in the same year, California was seen by observers as a swing state in this year's presidential election cycle due to fairly close polling.
California weighed in for this election as 4.2% more Democratic than the nation at large. As of the2024 presidential election, this is the last presidential race where California voted Republican. From the next election onwards, California would, like fellow West Coast statesOregon andWashington, transition from being swing states to voting consistently for Democratic candidates, forming a "blue wall" of sorts over the next three decades.Oregon andWashington even voted for Dukakis in the election, making this is the only presidential election since1948 that Oregon and California voted for different candidates, as well as the last presidential election where California voted to the right of both Oregon and Washington. Bush is also the last Republican to carry the following counties in a presidential election:Monterey,Napa,Sacramento,San Benito, andSanta Barbara. Additionally, he is the last Republican to win any county in the Bay Area (Napa), the last Republican to secure at least one-quarter of the vote inSan Francisco, the last Republican to win a majority of votes inImperial County, and the last Republican to secure at least 40% of the vote inLos Angeles County.
Bush became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingSonoma County, a Republican stronghold for most of the 20th century,[2] sinceBenjamin Harrison in1888, as well as the first to do so without carryingLos Angeles County, abellwether county from 1920 to 1984, sinceRutherford Hayes in1876. Due to Bush's victory in California, this was also the most recent presidential election when the state ofTexas would not be the biggest electoral vote prize won by the Republican candidate, and likewise for the Democratic nominee in regards to California, which instead wasNew York.
| Source | Rating | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Toss Up | September 24, 1988 |
| 1988 United States presidential election in California[4] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | George Herbert Walker Bush | 5,054,917 | 51.13% | 47 | |
| Democratic | Michael Stanley Dukakis | 4,702,233 | 47.56% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Ron Paul | 70,105 | 0.71% | 0 | |
| Independent | Lenora Fulani | 31,180 | 0.32% | 0 | |
| American Independent | James C. Griffin | 27,818 | 0.28% | 0 | |
| No party | David Duke (write-in) | 483 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| No party | Eugene McCarthy (write-in) | 234 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| No party | Herbert G. Lewin (write-in) | 58 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| No party | Write-in | 25 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| No party | Larry Holmes (write-in) | 11 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Invalid or blank votes | — | ||||
| Totals | 9,887,064 | 100.00% | 47 | ||
| Voter turnout | — | ||||
| County | George H.W. Bush Republican | Michael Dukakis Democratic | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alameda | 162,815 | 33.99% | 310,283 | 64.78% | 5,899 | 1.23% | -147,468 | -30.79% | 478,997 |
| Alpine | 306 | 55.43% | 230 | 41.67% | 16 | 2.90% | 76 | 13.76% | 552 |
| Amador | 6,893 | 55.87% | 5,197 | 42.12% | 248 | 2.01% | 1,696 | 13.75% | 12,338 |
| Butte | 40,143 | 56.04% | 30,406 | 42.45% | 1,082 | 1.51% | 9,737 | 13.59% | 71,631 |
| Calaveras | 7,640 | 56.28% | 5,674 | 41.80% | 260 | 1.92% | 1,966 | 14.48% | 13,574 |
| Colusa | 3,077 | 59.49% | 2,022 | 39.10% | 73 | 1.41% | 1,055 | 20.39% | 5,172 |
| Contra Costa | 158,652 | 47.86% | 169,411 | 51.10% | 3,448 | 1.04% | -10,759 | -3.24% | 331,511 |
| Del Norte | 3,714 | 49.73% | 3,587 | 48.03% | 167 | 2.24% | 127 | 1.70% | 7,468 |
| El Dorado | 30,021 | 59.33% | 19,801 | 39.13% | 781 | 1.54% | 10,220 | 20.20% | 50,603 |
| Fresno | 94,835 | 49.95% | 92,635 | 48.79% | 2,400 | 1.26% | 2,200 | 1.16% | 189,870 |
| Glenn | 4,944 | 62.06% | 2,894 | 36.33% | 128 | 1.61% | 2,050 | 25.73% | 7,966 |
| Humboldt | 21,460 | 41.15% | 29,781 | 57.11% | 905 | 1.74% | -8,321 | -15.96% | 52,146 |
| Imperial | 12,889 | 55.16% | 10,243 | 43.84% | 233 | 1.00% | 2,646 | 11.32% | 23,365 |
| Inyo | 5,042 | 64.34% | 2,653 | 33.85% | 142 | 1.81% | 2,389 | 30.49% | 7,837 |
| Kern | 90,550 | 61.48% | 55,083 | 37.40% | 1,660 | 1.12% | 35,467 | 24.08% | 147,293 |
| Kings | 12,118 | 56.41% | 9,142 | 42.56% | 222 | 1.03% | 2,976 | 13.85% | 21,482 |
| Lake | 9,366 | 48.03% | 9,828 | 50.39% | 308 | 1.58% | -462 | -2.36% | 19,502 |
| Lassen | 5,157 | 58.59% | 3,446 | 39.15% | 199 | 2.26% | 1,711 | 19.44% | 8,802 |
| Los Angeles | 1,239,716 | 46.88% | 1,372,352 | 51.89% | 32,603 | 1.23% | -132,636 | -5.01% | 2,644,671 |
| Madera | 13,255 | 54.59% | 10,642 | 43.83% | 384 | 1.58% | 2,613 | 10.76% | 24,281 |
| Marin | 46,855 | 39.73% | 69,394 | 58.85% | 1,671 | 1.42% | -22,539 | -19.12% | 117,920 |
| Mariposa | 3,768 | 54.53% | 2,998 | 43.39% | 144 | 2.08% | 770 | 11.14% | 6,910 |
| Mendocino | 12,979 | 41.94% | 17,152 | 55.42% | 816 | 2.64% | -4,173 | -13.48% | 30,947 |
| Merced | 21,717 | 51.20% | 20,105 | 47.40% | 592 | 1.40% | 1,612 | 3.80% | 42,414 |
| Modoc | 2,518 | 62.68% | 1,416 | 35.25% | 83 | 2.07% | 1,102 | 27.43% | 4,017 |
| Mono | 2,177 | 61.38% | 1,284 | 36.20% | 86 | 2.42% | 893 | 25.18% | 3,547 |
| Monterey | 50,022 | 49.83% | 48,998 | 48.81% | 1,361 | 1.36% | 1,024 | 1.02% | 100,381 |
| Napa | 23,235 | 50.19% | 22,283 | 48.14% | 772 | 1.67% | 952 | 2.05% | 46,290 |
| Nevada | 21,383 | 57.76% | 14,980 | 40.46% | 660 | 1.78% | 6,403 | 17.30% | 37,023 |
| Orange | 586,230 | 67.75% | 269,013 | 31.09% | 10,064 | 1.16% | 317,217 | 36.66% | 865,307 |
| Placer | 42,096 | 59.59% | 27,516 | 38.95% | 1,030 | 1.46% | 14,580 | 20.64% | 70,642 |
| Plumas | 4,603 | 51.06% | 4,251 | 47.15% | 161 | 1.79% | 352 | 3.91% | 9,015 |
| Riverside | 199,979 | 59.46% | 133,122 | 39.58% | 3,247 | 0.96% | 66,857 | 19.88% | 336,348 |
| Sacramento | 201,832 | 51.01% | 188,557 | 47.65% | 5,301 | 1.34% | 13,275 | 3.36% | 395,690 |
| San Benito | 5,578 | 54.11% | 4,559 | 44.23% | 171 | 1.66% | 1,019 | 9.88% | 10,308 |
| San Bernardino | 235,167 | 59.99% | 151,118 | 38.55% | 5,723 | 1.46% | 84,049 | 21.44% | 392,008 |
| San Diego | 523,143 | 60.19% | 333,264 | 38.34% | 12,788 | 1.47% | 189,879 | 21.85% | 869,195 |
| San Francisco | 72,503 | 26.14% | 201,887 | 72.78% | 3,004 | 1.08% | -129,384 | -46.64% | 277,394 |
| San Joaquin | 75,309 | 54.39% | 61,699 | 44.56% | 1,445 | 1.05% | 13,610 | 9.83% | 138,453 |
| San Luis Obispo | 46,613 | 55.85% | 35,667 | 42.73% | 1,187 | 1.42% | 10,946 | 13.12% | 83,467 |
| San Mateo | 109,261 | 42.94% | 141,859 | 55.74% | 3,360 | 1.32% | -32,598 | -12.80% | 254,480 |
| Santa Barbara | 77,524 | 54.24% | 63,586 | 44.48% | 1,830 | 1.28% | 13,938 | 9.76% | 142,940 |
| Santa Clara | 254,442 | 46.99% | 277,810 | 51.30% | 9,276 | 1.71% | -23,368 | -4.31% | 541,528 |
| Santa Cruz | 37,728 | 36.77% | 63,133 | 61.53% | 1,750 | 1.70% | -25,405 | -24.76% | 102,611 |
| Shasta | 32,402 | 59.36% | 21,171 | 38.79% | 1,012 | 1.85% | 11,231 | 20.57% | 54,585 |
| Sierra | 860 | 50.71% | 791 | 46.64% | 45 | 2.65% | 69 | 4.07% | 1,696 |
| Siskiyou | 9,056 | 50.88% | 8,365 | 47.00% | 376 | 2.12% | 691 | 3.88% | 17,797 |
| Solano | 50,314 | 47.43% | 54,344 | 51.23% | 1,430 | 1.34% | -4,030 | -3.80% | 106,088 |
| Sonoma | 67,725 | 41.91% | 91,262 | 56.48% | 2,596 | 1.61% | -23,537 | -14.57% | 161,583 |
| Stanislaus | 51,648 | 53.07% | 44,685 | 45.92% | 982 | 1.01% | 6,963 | 7.15% | 97,315 |
| Sutter | 14,100 | 67.47% | 6,557 | 31.09% | 241 | 1.14% | 7,543 | 36.38% | 20,898 |
| Tehama | 9,854 | 56.52% | 7,213 | 41.37% | 367 | 2.11% | 2,641 | 15.15% | 17,434 |
| Trinity | 3,267 | 54.63% | 2,518 | 42.11% | 195 | 3.26% | 749 | 12.52% | 5,980 |
| Tulare | 46,891 | 59.61% | 30,711 | 39.04% | 1,067 | 1.35% | 16,180 | 20.57% | 78,669 |
| Tuolumne | 10,646 | 54.00% | 8,717 | 44.22% | 352 | 1.78% | 1,929 | 9.78% | 19,715 |
| Ventura | 147,604 | 61.64% | 89,065 | 37.19% | 2,804 | 1.17% | 58,539 | 24.45% | 239,473 |
| Yolo | 22,358 | 41.89% | 30,429 | 57.01% | 585 | 1.10% | -8,071 | -15.12% | 53,372 |
| Yuba | 8,937 | 61.37% | 5,444 | 37.38% | 182 | 1.25% | 3,493 | 23.99% | 14,563 |
| Total | 5,054,917 | 51.13% | 4,702,233 | 47.56% | 129,914 | 1.31% | 352,684 | 3.57% | 9,887,064 |
Bush won 23 of the 45 congressional districts, including five held by Democrats.
| District[5] | Bush | Dukakis | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43.9% | 56.1% | Douglas H. Bosco |
| 2nd | 59.0% | 41.0% | Wally Herger |
| 3rd | 50.4% | 49.6% | Bob Matsui |
| 4th | 51.5% | 48.5% | Vic Fazio |
| 5th | 28.0% | 72.0% | Nancy Pelosi |
| 6th | 35.2% | 64.8% | Barbara Boxer |
| 7th | 46.1% | 53.9% | George Miller |
| 8th | 29.4% | 70.6% | Ron Dellums |
| 9th | 42.4% | 57.6% | Pete Stark |
| 10th | 44.2% | 55.8% | Don Edwards |
| 11th | 41.3% | 58.7% | Tom Lantos |
| 12th | 50.1% | 49.9% | Tom Campbell |
| 13th | 49.8% | 50.2% | Norman Mineta |
| 14th | 59.8% | 40.2% | Norman D. Shumway |
| 15th | 52.8% | 47.2% | Tony Coelho |
| 16th | 45.0% | 55.0% | Leon Panetta |
| 17th | 59.4% | 40.6% | Chip Pashayan |
| 18th | 46.5% | 53.5% | Richard Lehman |
| 19th | 54.7% | 45.3% | Bob Lagomarsino |
| 20th | 65.3% | 34.7% | Bill Thomas |
| 21st | 65.1% | 34.9% | Elton Gallegly |
| 22nd | 64.7% | 35.3% | Carlos Moorhead |
| 23rd | 43.5% | 56.5% | Anthony Beilenson |
| 24th | 34.3% | 65.7% | Henry Waxman |
| 25th | 32.1% | 67.9% | Edward Roybal |
| 26th | 44.1% | 55.9% | Howard Berman |
| 27th | 44.8% | 55.2% | Mel Levine |
| 28th | 26.4% | 73.6% | Julian Dixon |
| 29th | 19.3% | 80.7% | Augustus Hawkins |
| 30th | 46.6% | 53.4% | Matthew Martinez |
| 31st | 34.8% | 65.2% | Mervyn Dymally |
| 32nd | 50.4% | 49.6% | Glenn Anderson |
| 33rd | 63.1% | 36.9% | David Dreier |
| 34th | 49.1% | 50.9% | Ed Torres |
| 35th | 66.2% | 33.8% | Jerry Lewis |
| 36th | 52.0% | 48.0% | George Brown |
| 37th | 61.5% | 38.5% | Al McCandless |
| 38th | 61.7% | 38.3% | Bob Dornan |
| 39th | 71.5% | 28.5% | William Dannemeyer |
| 40th | 68.7% | 31.3% | Christopher Cox |
| 41st | 59.1% | 40.9% | Bill Lowery |
| 42nd | 65.7% | 34.3% | Dana Rohrabacher |
| 43rd | 68.8% | 31.2% | Ron Packard |
| 44th | 47.9% | 52.1% | Jim Bates |
| 45th | 66.8% | 33.2% | Duncan Hunter |
California voted Republican in 1988 for the 9th time out of 10 elections from1952 on, confirming its status as a Republican electoral bulwark during this period.[6] However, George H. W. Bush won California by only 3.57% even as he won nationally by 7.72%; andFlorida displaced it as the state providing the Republican with his biggest raw-vote margin in the nation. Signs of the phenomena that would come to make California a'Blue Wall' state from1992 on emerged in this election; for the first time since1916,Los Angeles County voted for the loser of the national election. Bush was also nearly swept out of the Bay Area, losing populous former Republican strongholds such asSanta Clara,San Mateo,Sonoma, andMarin Counties (as well asSanta Cruz County, the northernmostCentral Coast county). While Bush continued to do well inSan Diego,Orange, andVentura Counties (and, to a lesser extent,Santa Barbara,San Luis Obispo, andMonterey Counties, as well as in relatively thinly populatedNapa County), this represented a significant erosion of the Republican Party's traditional base along the length of California's coast.[7] By20162020 and2024, this process was complete, as every coastal county in the state saveDel Norte voted Democratic three elections in a row.
On the other hand, in contrast to the1976,1968,1960, and1948 elections in California, all of which had been close (and which had been won by the Democrat in 1948), Dukakis carried little of inland California, which had traditionally been the Democratic base in the state.[7] Counties that had voted Democratic in all four of those elections, but voted Republican in 1988, includedSacramento,Fresno,Placer,Merced,Shasta,Madera,Amador,Lassen,Plumas,Trinity, andSierra Counties. Apart from Sacramento, Fresno, and Merced Counties, these have continued to remain as Republican strongholds in the state even as overall it has become increasingly blue in the 21st century. Comparing 1988 directly with what at the time was the most recent close election in California,1976, Dukakis carried only nine of the 27 counties Carter carried in the state. Three of these (Shasta, Plumas, and Sierra) had even voted forMcGovern in the disastrous Democratic defeat of1972.
State and district results of the1988 U.S. presidential election | ||
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