9 billion by 2037-2043 (estimate), 15 years after 8 billion
10 billion by 2056-2074 (estimate), 19 years after 9 billion
However, these milestones are likely to be reached far sooner.[5][needs update] Projected figures vary depending on underlying statistical assumptions and which variables are manipulated in projection calculations, especially thefertility variable. Long-range predictions to the year 2150 (more than a century from now) are uncertain and range from a low of 3 billion to a high of 25 billion.[6]
World population milestones in billions (UN estimates)[7]
There is no estimation for the exact day or month the world's population surpassed the one and two billion marks. The days of three and four billion were not officially noted, but the International Database of theUnited States Census Bureau places them in July 1960 and April 1974 respectively.[citation needed]
TheUnited Nations Population Fund designated 12 October 1999 as the approximate day on which theworld population reached six billion.[10] It was officially designated "The Day of Six Billion", however demographers do not universally accept this date as being exact. In fact, there has been subsequent research which places the day of six billion nearer to 18 June or 19 June 1999.[11] United Nations Population Fund spokesman Omar Gharzeddine disputed the date of the Day of Six Billion by stating, "The U.N. marked the '6 billionth' [person] in 1999, and then a couple of years later the Population Division itself reassessed its calculations and said, actually, no, it was in 1998."[12]
The "Day of Seven Billion" was targeted by the United States Census Bureau to be in March 2012,[15] while the Population Division of the United Nations suggested 31 October 2011,[16] and the latter date was officially designated by theUnited Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) as the approximate day on which theworld's population reached seven billion people.[17] United Nations Secretary GeneralBan Ki-moon spoke at theUnited Nations building inNew York City on this milestone in the size of world population, and promoted the website 7 Billion Actions.[18][19] Ban Ki-moon did not choose a symbolic seven billionth baby, but several groups proposed candidates: Nargis Kumar ofUttar Pradesh,India,[20] Danica May Camacho ofManila,Philippines[21] and Wattalage Muthumai ofColombo,Sri Lanka.[22]
The "Day of Eight Billion" was targeted by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division to be on 15 November 2022.[23] Among babies born that day who were symbolically named as the world's eight billionth by various government agencies were:Vinice Mabansag (Tondo, Manila, Philippines);[24][25] Damián Ferrera (Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic);[24] and Arpi Kocharyan (Tsovinar, Armenia).[26]
National or subnational governments have sometimes made similar designations based on the date estimated by a demographic agency. Some national milestones relate tocitizens rather thanresidents. Commentators in countries with highimmigration have pointed out that a population milestone may be reached by an immigrant rather thannatural increase.[28][29]
Complains that government promises of support were not kept. But, this was because of the difference of federal/central government policy during New Order and Reformasi (Otonomi Daerah).
"World Population to 2030"(PDF). New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Population Division. 2004: 3, 14.Archived(PDF) from the original on 15 January 2012. Retrieved3 July 2010.{{cite journal}}:Cite journal requires|journal= (help)
^"Key Findings".Long-Range Population Projections(PDF). New York: United Nations: Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2003. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on 16 October 2018. Retrieved16 October 2018.{{cite book}}:|work= ignored (help)CS1 maint: publisher location (link)
^United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022).World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results. United Nations Publication. pp. i.ISBN9789210014380.
