Jay Wright Forrester | |
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| Born | (1918-07-14)July 14, 1918 Anselmo, Nebraska, U.S. |
| Died | November 16, 2016(2016-11-16) (aged 98) Concord, Massachusetts, U.S. |
| Education | University of Nebraska (BS) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MS) |
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| Institutions | MIT Sloan School of Management (1956) |
Jay Wright Forrester (July 14, 1918 – November 16, 2016) was an Americancomputer engineer,management theorist andsystems scientist.[2] He spent his entire career atMassachusetts Institute of Technology, entering as a graduate student in 1939, and eventually retiring in 1989.[3]
DuringWorld War II Forrester worked onservomechanisms as a research assistant toGordon S. Brown. After the war he headed MIT's Whirlwinddigital computer project. There he is credited as a co-inventor ofmagnetic core memory, the predominant form ofrandom-accesscomputer memory during the most explosive years ofdigital computer development (between 1955 and 1975). It was part of a family of related technologies which bridged the gap betweenvacuum tubes andsemiconductors by exploiting the magnetic properties of materials to perform switching and amplification.[4] His team is also believed to have created the firstanimation in the history ofcomputer graphics, a "jumping ball" on anoscilloscope.[5]
Later, Forrester was a professor at theMIT Sloan School of Management, where he introduced theForrester effect describing fluctuations insupply chains.[6] He has been credited as a founder ofsystem dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects indynamic systems. After his initial efforts in industrial simulation, Forrester attempted to simulate urban dynamics and then world dynamics, developing a model with theClub of Rome along the lines of the model popularized inThe Limits to Growth. Today system dynamics is most often applied to research and consulting in organizations and other social systems.[3]
Forrester was born on a farm nearAnselmo, Nebraska, where "his early interest in electricity was spurred, perhaps, by the fact that the ranch had none. While in high school, he built a wind-driven, 12-volt electrical system using old car parts—it gave the ranch its first electric power."[7]
Forrester received his Bachelor of Science in Electrical Engineering in 1939 from theUniversity of Nebraska. He went on to graduate school at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology, where he worked withservomechanism pioneerGordon S. Brown and gained his master's in 1945 with a thesis on 'Hydraulic Servomechanism Developments'.[2] In 1949 he was inducted intoEta Kappa Nu the Electrical & Computer Engineering Honor Society.[citation needed]
During the late 1940s and early 50s, Forrester continued research in electrical and computer engineering at MIT, heading theWhirlwind project.[8] Trying to design an aircraft simulator, the group moved away from an initial analog design to develop adigital computer.[3] As a key part of this design, Forresterperfected and patented multi-dimensional addressablemagnetic-core memory,[9] the forerunner of today'sRAM. In 1948-49 the Whirlwind team created the firstanimation in the history ofcomputer graphics, a "jumping ball" on anoscilloscope.[10] Whirlwind began operation in 1951, the first digital computer to operate in real time and to use video displays for output. It subsequently evolved into the air defence systemSemi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE).[3]
Forrester was invited to join the board ofDigital Equipment Corporation by Ken Olsen in 1957, and advised the early company on management science. He left before 1966 due to changes in DEC to a product line led organisation.[11]
In 1956, Forrester moved to theMIT Sloan School of Management as Germeshausen professor. After his retirement, he continued until 1989 as Professor Emeritus and Senior Lecturer. In 1961 he published his seminal book, Industrial Dynamics, the first work in the field of System Dynamics. The work resulted from analyzing the operations of Sprague Electric in Massachusetts. The study was the first model ofsupply chains, showing in this case that inventory fluctuations were not due to external factors as thought, but rather to internal corporate dynamics that his continuous modelling approach could detect.[8] The phenomenon, originally called theForrester effect, is today more frequently described as the "bullwhip effect".[12]
Forrester was the founder ofsystem dynamics, which deals with the simulation of interactions between objects indynamic systems.Industrial Dynamics was the first book Forrester wrote using system dynamics to analyze industrial business cycles. Several years later, interactions with formerBoston MayorJohn F. Collins led Forrester to writeUrban Dynamics, which sparked an ongoing debate on the feasibility of modeling broader social problems.[citation needed] The book went on to influence the video gameSimCity.[13]
Forrester's 1971 paper 'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems' argued that the use of computerized system models to inform social policy was superior to simple debate, both in generating insight into the root causes of problems and in understanding the likely effects of proposed solutions. He characterized normal debate and discussion as being dominated by inexact mental models:
The mental model is fuzzy. It is incomplete. It is imprecisely stated. Furthermore, within one individual, a mental model changes with time and even during the flow of a single conversation. The human mind assembles a few relationships to fit the context of a discussion. As the subject shifts so does the model. When only a single topic is being discussed, each participant in a conversation employs a different mental model to interpret the subject. Fundamental assumptions differ but are never brought into the open. Goals are different and are left unstated. It is little wonder that compromise takes so long. And it is not surprising that consensus leads to laws and programs that fail in their objectives or produce new difficulties greater than those that have been relieved.[14]
The paper summarized the results of a previous study on the system dynamics governing the economies of urban centers, which showed "how industry, housing, and people interact with each other as a city grows and decays." The study's findings, presented more fully in Forrester's 1969 bookUrban Dynamics, suggested that the root cause of depressed economic conditions was a shortage of job opportunities relative to the population level, and that the most popular solutions proposed at the time (e.g. increasing low-income housing availability, or reducing real estate taxes) counter-intuitively would worsen the situation by increasing this relative shortage. The paper further argued that measures to reduce the shortage—such as converting land use from housing to industry, or increasing real estate taxes to spur property redevelopment—would be similarly counter-effective.[15]
Systems thinking, a paradigm of profound interconnectedness, sprang from the pioneering efforts of theoretical biologistLudwig von Bertalanffy, alongside the extraordinary contributions of Jay Wright Forrester, a distinguished management theorist and systems scientist whose innovative vision shaped its core. Together with other luminaries, their groundbreaking work laid the foundation for this transformative framework, which reached its apogee in the 1990s with the publication ofPeter Senge’s seminal bestseller,The Fifth Discipline, illuminating its principles for a global audience.[16]
'Counterintuitive Behavior of Social Systems' also sketched a model of world dynamics that correlated population, food production, industrial development, pollution, availability of natural resources, and quality of life, and attempted future projections of those values under various assumptions. Forrester presented this model more fully in his 1971 bookWorld Dynamics, notable for serving as the initial basis for theWorld3 model used byDonella andDennis Meadows in their popular 1972 bookThe Limits to Growth.
Forrester metAurelio Peccei, a founder of theClub of Rome in 1970.[17] He later met with the Club of Rome to discuss issues surrounding global sustainability; the bookWorld Dynamics followed.World Dynamics took on modeling the complex interactions of the worldeconomy,population andecology, which was controversial (see alsoDonella Meadows andThe Limits to Growth). It was the start of the field ofglobal modeling.[8] Forrester continued working in applications of system dynamics and promoting its use in education.
In 1972, Forrester received theIEEE Medal of Honor,IEEEs highest award.[18]In 1982, he received theIEEE Computer Pioneer Award.[19] In 1995, he was made a Fellow[20] of theComputer History Museum "for his perfecting of core memory technology into a practical computer memory device; for fundamental contributions to early computer systems design and development". In 2006, he was inducted into the Operational Research Hall of Fame.
Forrester wrote several books, including:
His articles and papers include:
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