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2026 Florida gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2026 United States gubernatorial elections.

2026 Florida gubernatorial election

← 2022
November 3, 2026
2030 →
 
PartyRepublicanDemocratic

IncumbentGovernor

Ron DeSantis
Republican



Elections in Florida
Presidential elections
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Government

The2026 Florida gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the nextgovernor of Florida, alongside other state and local elections. The primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.[1] IncumbentRepublican GovernorRon DeSantis is term-limited and cannot seek election to a third consecutive term.

Democrats have not won a gubernatorial election in Florida sinceLawton Chiles was re-elected Governor in1994.

Background

[edit]
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A heavily populatedSouth Atlantic state with a large and increasingly conservativeLatino American population and the northern parts lying in theBible Belt, Florida is considered to be a moderately to stronglyred state, having not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 nor a Democrat for president since2012 and having moved significantly rightward in the last decade. In2022, incumbent governorRon DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin, a considerable improvement from his 0.4-point victory four years earlier in thegubernatorial election during the2018 blue wave. This was followed two years later by RepublicanDonald Trump winning his adoptive home state by a 13% margin as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, improving his 3.4% margin of victory in2020 and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtimeswing-statestatus. Republicans also control all statewide offices, a large majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both houses of theFlorida Legislature.

Eligibility and requirements

[edit]

Article IV, Section 5(b) of theFlorida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must:[2]

  • Be at least thirty years old;
  • Be a permanent resident of Florida for at least seven years;
  • Not have served as governor for six years or more of the two prior terms.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Bill Reicherter, real estate agent, candidate for state house in2024, and candidate for state senate in2022[9]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Byron Donalds

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

  • Carlos Beruff, former chair of the Florida Constitution Revision Commission (2017–2018)[13]

State senators

State representatives

Party officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations
James Fishback
State legislators
Individuals
Ashley Moody(declined)
Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jay
Collins
Byron
Donalds
James
Fishback
Paul
Renner
OtherUndecided
Patriot Polling (R)[53]January 19–29, 2026827 (LV)± 4.0%37%23%40%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[54]January 8–13, 2026400 (RV)± 5.0%7%37%3%4%49%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[55][A]January 4–6, 2026600 (LV)± 4.0%6%45%4%3%41%
39%3%1%26%[b]31%
47%5%4%43%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[56][B]December 7–11, 2025700 (RV)± 3.7%13%40%9%38%
The Tyson Group (R)[58]December 8–9, 2025800 (LV)± 3.46%9%38%2%1%49%
The American Promise[59]November 17–19, 2025800 (LV)± 3.46%1%43%0%2%54%
Victory Insights (R)[60]November 11–13, 2025600 (LV)1%45%1%3%49%
St. Pete Polls[61][C]October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%4%39%3%54%
12%52%36%
Targoz Market Research[62][D]September 16–18, 2025506 (RV)29%9%62%
The American Promise[63]September 4–5, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%2%40%2%54%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis
Byron
Donalds
Matt
Gaetz
Ashley
Moody
Jeanette
Nuñez
Jimmy
Patronis
Wilton
Simpson
Francis
Suarez
Michael
Waltz
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls[61][C]October 13–15, 20251,034 (LV)± 3.0%21%47%36%
Targoz Market Research[62][D]September 16–18, 2025510 (RV)26%23%2%9%[c]39%
University of North Florida[64]July 14–22, 2025797 (RV)± 3.9%32%29%8%1%2%10%[d]18%
St. Pete Polls[65][66][C]July 8–10, 2025831 (LV)± 3.4%27%35%3%2%[e]32%
Targoz Market Research[67][68][D]May 5–7, 2025516 (RV)29%28%10%7%4%5%4%[f]13%
Targoz Market Research[67][69][D]April 15–22, 2025619 (RV)28%22%8%9%4%7%4%[f]18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[70]February 26–27, 2025600 (LV)± 5.0%30%34%3%33%
Victory Insights (R)[71]January 26–27, 2025850 (LV)± 3.5%34%5%61%
31%4%3%1%60%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[72]
June 8–9, 2024366 (RV)± 3.3%43%19%13%14%5%7%[g]
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research
[73]
April 15–17, 2024372 (RV)± 3.3%38%16%20%[h]26%
Victory Insights (R)[74]April 3–6, 20241,200 (LV)± 2.9%21%13%3%2%5%14%[i]43%
University of North Florida[75]October 23 – November 4, 2023788 (LV)± 3.8%22%9%9%6%2%3%1%1%1%6%[j]40%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]
  • Dayna Marie Foster, mathematics teacher[78]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
David Jolly
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Jerry Demings
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jerry
Demings
David
Jolly
Undecided
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[54]January 8–13, 2026400 (RV)± 5.0%19%23%58%
Public Policy Polling (D)[93][E]December 2–3, 2025616 (LV)22%22%56%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Jason
Pizzo
Daniella Levine
Cava
Gwen
Graham
David
Jolly
Lauren
Book
Angie
Nixon
Shevrin
Jones
Fentrice
Driskell
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[67][68][D]May 5–7, 2025396 (RV)32%13%10%7%6%4%7%21%
Targoz Market Research[67][69][D]April 15–22, 2025464 (RV)41%15%5%7%4%4%2%1%21%

Independent and third-party candidates

[edit]

Independent candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Moe Dimanche, author and former candidate for Mayor of the City of Orlando (2023)[95]

Publicly expressed interest

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Moe Dimanche

Organizations

Jason Pizzo

Organizations

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]
  • Scott Jewett, entrepreneur[99]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Race to the WH[100]Lean RJanuary 25, 2026
The Cook Political Report[101]Solid RSeptember 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball[102]Safe RSeptember 4, 2025
Inside Elections[103]Solid RAugust 28, 2025

Polling

[edit]

Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida[104]October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%45%34%3%[l]18%
Targoz Market Research[62][D]September 16–18, 20251,118 (RV)± 2.8%36%32%4%[m]28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[105][F]September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%40%41%19%
AIF Center (R)[106]August 25–27, 2025800 (LV)± 3.5%49%41%11%
Victory Insights (R)[107]June 7–10, 2025600 (LV)± 2.8%37%31%32%

Paul Renner vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Paul
Renner (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
Targoz Market Research[62][D]September 16–18, 20251,123 (RV)± 2.8%34%33%5%[n]28%
Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[105][F]September 7–9, 2025631 (LV)± 4.0%42%40%18%

Byron Donalds vs. Jerry Demings

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
Jerry
Demings (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida[104]October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%45%33%5%[o]17%
Hypothetical polling

Byron Donalds vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Byron
Donalds (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[67][68][D]May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%38%34%5%23%

Casey DeSantis vs. David Jolly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
David
Jolly (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida[104]October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%47%34%5%[o]14%

Casey DeSantis vs. Jerry Demings

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
Jerry
Demings (D)
OtherUndecided
University of North Florida[104]October 15–25, 2025728 (LV)± 4.3%47%36%6%[p]11%

Casey DeSantis vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Casey
DeSantis (R)
Daniella Levine
Cava (D)
Jason
Pizzo (I)
Undecided
Targoz Market Research[67][68][D]May 5–7, 20251,200 (RV)± 2.8%39%35%8%18%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[108][G]August 25–27, 20251,000 (LV)± 3.1%51%38%11%
Cygnal (R)[109]October 26–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%41%11%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdefghijklKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Casey DeSantis with 26%
  3. ^Paul Renner with 7%; Jay Collins with 2%
  4. ^"Someone else" with 7%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ^Paul Renner with 2%
  6. ^abCharles Burkett with 3%; Ashton Hayward with 1%
  7. ^"Someone else" with 7%
  8. ^"Another candidate" with 20%
  9. ^"Someone else" with 14%
  10. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  11. ^Democratic legislators[87][88]Republican legislators[87]
  12. ^"Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 1%
  13. ^Jason Pizzo (I) with 4%
  14. ^Jason Pizzo (I) with 5%
  15. ^ab"Someone else" and "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refusal" with 1%
  16. ^"Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by Donalds's campaign
  2. ^Poll sponsored by Florida Firefighters, which supports Collins[57]
  3. ^abcPoll sponsored byFlorida Politics
  4. ^abcdefghijPoll sponsored by theJames Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
  5. ^Poll sponsored by Moving Florida Forward, which supports Demings.[94]
  6. ^abPoll sponsored by Jolly's campaign
  7. ^Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy

References

[edit]
  1. ^"2026 State Primary Election Dates".NCSL. May 9, 2025. RetrievedAugust 5, 2025.
  2. ^"Article IV, Florida Constitution".Ballotpedia. RetrievedMay 13, 2023.
  3. ^Scheckner, Jesse (March 31, 2025)."Charles Burkett, Surfside's 4-term Mayor, says he's running for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 31, 2025.
  4. ^Shepard, Skyler (January 12, 2026)."Jay Collins, Green Beret turned lieutenant governor, announces run for Florida governor".WPEC. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2026.
  5. ^Leonard, Kimberly; Matat, Stephany (February 25, 2025)."Rep. Byron Donalds, backed by Trump, says he's running for Florida governor".Associated Press. RetrievedFebruary 25, 2025.
  6. ^Ogles, Jacob (November 24, 2025)."James Fishback launches campaign for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedNovember 24, 2025.
  7. ^Gancarski, A.G. (September 3, 2025)."Paul Renner, former Florida House speaker, announces run for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 3, 2025.
  8. ^Fellows-Coffey, Lisa."Winter Haven's Williams leans on faith, Sheriff Judd in gubernatorial race".Winter Haven Sun. RetrievedDecember 16, 2025.
  9. ^Scheckner, Jesse (August 4, 2025)."4 people have filed for a Special Election to replace Joe Casello in HD 90. Not all are serious candidates".Florida Politics. RetrievedAugust 4, 2025.
  10. ^Fineout, Gary; Leonard, Kimberly (July 11, 2025)."He was DeSantis' 'bulldog.' Will Trump help Florida's attorney general stick around?".Politico. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  11. ^Riski, Tess (September 8, 2025)."Miami's outgoing mayor celebrates G20 win as he eyes his next career move".Miami Herald.Archived from the original on September 10, 2025. RetrievedSeptember 10, 2025.
  12. ^Dixon, Matt (February 20, 2025)."Trump backs Rep. Byron Donalds in his likely run for Florida governor in 2026".NBC News. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2025.
  13. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwWilson, Kirby (February 17, 2025)."Does Donald Trump have a favorite Republican in the 2026 governor's race?".Tampa Bay Times. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
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  15. ^Kopylov, Frank (January 14, 2026)."Byron Donalds gains key endorsement from Arkansas Gov. Sanders".Florida’s Voice. RetrievedJanuary 15, 2026.
  16. ^Schorsch, Peter (November 13, 2025)."Byron Donalds has Elon Musk's 'full support'".Florida Politics. RetrievedNovember 13, 2025.
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  19. ^Gancarski, A.G. (September 2, 2025)."Aaron Bean backs Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 2, 2025.
  20. ^Klein, Matthew (December 4, 2025)."Republicans' Florida Feud May Fall Short of Fireworks".The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. RetrievedDecember 5, 2025.
  21. ^Leonard, Kimberly (March 18, 2025)."Trump-backed Byron Donalds gets first congressional endorsement for Florida governor".Politico. RetrievedMarch 18, 2025.
  22. ^abLeonard, Kimberly; Domínguez, Isa (March 28, 2025)."Parkland bill faces the state Senate — again".Politico. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025.
  23. ^abcdefgOgles, Jacob (April 9, 2025)."Seven more Florida congressional colleagues endorse Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedApril 9, 2025.
  24. ^Ogles, Jacob (October 13, 2025)."Neal Dunn becomes latest in Florida congressional delegation to endorse Byron Donalds".Florida Politics. RetrievedOctober 13, 2025.
  25. ^abcdWilson, Drew (April 29, 2025)."Top congressional Republicans line up behind Byron Donalds".Florida Politics. RetrievedApril 29, 2025.
  26. ^abcOgles, Jacob (February 26, 2025)."Florida leaders line up to endorse Byron Donalds on Day 1".Florida Politics. RetrievedFebruary 26, 2025.
  27. ^Vecerina, Michelle (November 19, 2025)."EXCLUSIVE: South Carolina Rep. Russell Fry endorses Byron Donalds for Florida Governor".Florida's Voice. RetrievedNovember 19, 2025.
  28. ^Jo Cooper, Amber (August 21, 2025)."U.S. Rep. Haridopolos endorses Rep. Donalds' bid for Florida governor".The Floridian. RetrievedAugust 21, 2025.
  29. ^Leonard, Kimberly; Domínguez, Isa (April 3, 2025)."Stephanie Murphy talks next moves — for her and for Democrats".Politico. RetrievedApril 3, 2025.
  30. ^Manjarres, Javier (August 11, 2025)."Luna Endorses Donalds' 'America First' Gubernatorial Campaign".The Floridian. RetrievedAugust 11, 2025.
  31. ^Vecerina, Michelle (October 17, 2025)."U.S. Rep. Jimmy Patronis joins growing GOP coalition supporting Byron Donalds for Florida governor".Florida's Voice. RetrievedNovember 7, 2025.
  32. ^Barfield, Raeylee (November 10, 2025)."Chip Roy Endorses Byron Donalds in Florida's Governor Race". The Floridian. RetrievedNovember 11, 2025.
  33. ^abc"Byron Donalds Holds Miami Meet and Greet, Talks about Feud Between DeSantis and Legislature, Insurance, and Squaring off Against Pizzo and Jolly".The Floridian. May 13, 2025. RetrievedOctober 14, 2025.
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  36. ^abcdefghijklmnopqrstuvwxyzaaabacadaeafagahaiajakalamanaoapaqarasatauavawaxayazbabbbcbdOgles, Jacob (October 15, 2025)."63 Florida House members endorse Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedNovember 6, 2025.
  37. ^Ogles, Jacob (March 29, 2025)."'Bold and clear': Byron Donalds kicks off campaign for Governor from Bonita Springs".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 28, 2025.
  38. ^Outzen, Rick (June 3, 2025)."Breaking: Pensacola mayor endorses Byron Donalds for governor".Rick's Blog. RetrievedOctober 14, 2025.
  39. ^abcOgles, Jacob (September 29, 2025)."'Making Florida great': 15 Sheriffs endorse Byron Donalds for Governor".Florida Politics. RetrievedSeptember 30, 2025.
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  42. ^Kopylov, Frank (January 24, 2026)."Seminole County sheriff Dennis Lemma endorses Byron Donalds for Florida governor".Florida’s Voice. RetrievedJanuary 24, 2026.
  43. ^Gancarski, A.G. (March 27, 2025)."Erika Donalds says Casey DeSantis 'teased a run' for Governor, but Byron Donalds can better deal with Florida issues".Florida Politics. RetrievedMarch 27, 2025.
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