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2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout63.69%[1] (Increase 0.44%)
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote40
Popular vote533,556214,309
Percentage69.97%28.10%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in West Virginia
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
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The2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.West Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of West Virginia has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state lost one congressional seat.[2]

RepublicanDonald Trump easily won West Virginia a third time in 2024, with a 41.9% margin of victory and just under 70% of the vote. Having been Trump's strongest state in2016 and his second-strongest state in2020, another strong Republican win was near-guaranteed in West Virginia.[3]

This marks the fourth presidential election, both consecutively and ever, in which the Republican won every county in West Virginia. Trump's 69.97% of the vote is the highest percentage any party has won in the state's history of presidential elections. Meanwhile, neighboringVirginia voted for Harris, with the two states differing by 48 percentage points in margin.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 West Virginia Democratic presidential primary

The West Virginia Democratic presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside theMaryland andNebraska primaries. 25 delegates (20 pledged and 5 unpledged) to theDemocratic National Convention were allocated to presidential candidates.[4]

Four candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[5]

Results

[edit]
West Virginia Democratic primary, May 14, 2024[6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)68,16470.5%2020
Jason Palmer11,07911.5%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)7,3717.6%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)7,2227.5%
Armando Perez-Serrato2,7862.9%
Total:96,622100.0%20525

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 West Virginia Republican presidential primary

The West Virginia Republican presidential primary was held on May 14, 2024, alongside theMaryland andNebraska primaries. 31 delegates to the2024 Republican National Convention were allocated on a winner-take-all basis.[7]

Five candidates have been certified to appear on the primary ballot:[5]

Results

[edit]
West Virginia Republican primary, May 14, 2024[8]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump199,49788.4%3232
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)21,2319.4%
Rachel Swift2,3261.0%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)1,4810.7%
David Stuckenberg1,1680.5%
Total:225,703100.0%3232

Mountain primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Green Party presidential primaries

The Mountain primary (the state'sGreen Party affiliate) was held on May 14, 2024.

Only one candidate was certified to appear on the primary ballot,[5] who will receive all 4 of the state's pledged delegates:[9]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[10]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[11]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[14]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[15]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[16]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[17]Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP[18]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[19]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Research America[20][A]August 21–27, 2024400 (RV)± 4.9%61%34%5%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][B]April 13–21, 2024383 (LV)63%31%6%
Emerson College[22]October 1–4, 2023539 (RV)± 4.2%59%23%18%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Jill
Stein
Mountain
Other /
Undecided
Kaplan Strategies[23]June 4, 2024464 (LV)± 4.6%55%28%2%15%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][B]April 13–21, 2024383 (LV)58%30%12%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[21][B]April 13–21, 2024383 (LV)54%29%17%

Results

[edit]
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
2024 United States presidential election in West Virginia[24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican533,55669.97+1.35%
Democratic214,30928.10−1.59%
Independent8,9471.17N/A
Libertarian3,0470.40−0.94%
Mountain2,5310.33No ∆
Socialism and Liberation
730.01+0.01%
American Solidarity
630.01N/A
Independent
390.01N/A
Independent
100.00N/A
Write-in70.00-0.01%
Total votes762,582100.00N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Barbour5,07179.30%1,19918.75%1251.95%3,87260.55%6,395
Berkeley37,58066.99%17,50031.19%1,0221.82%20,08035.80%56,102
Boone6,31477.55%1,64120.15%1872.30%4,67357.40%8,142
Braxton3,99175.12%1,23323.21%891.67%2,75851.91%5,313
Brooke6,98671.42%2,62126.79%1751.79%4,36544.63%9,782
Cabell21,22959.61%13,47437.84%9092.55%7,75521.77%35,612
Calhoun2,39181.44%48816.62%571.94%1,90364.82%2,936
Clay2,59780.15%58017.90%631.95%2,01762.25%3,240
Doddridge2,54185.96%37412.65%411.39%2,16773.31%2,956
Fayette10,91069.85%4,38728.09%3232.06%6,52341.76%15,620
Gilmer1,82277.73%48620.73%361.54%1,33657.00%2,344
Grant4,94988.88%5529.91%671.21%4,39778.97%5,568
Greenbrier10,51770.13%4,19627.98%2831.89%6,32142.15%14,996
Hampshire8,46480.46%1,89017.97%1661.57%6,57462.49%10,520
Hancock9,46272.62%3,36025.79%2081.59%6,10246.83%13,030
Hardy4,99777.94%1,29720.23%1171.83%3,70057.71%6,411
Harrison20,48069.44%8,40228.49%6132.07%12,07840.95%29,495
Jackson9,90777.27%2,69921.05%2161.68%7,20856.22%12,822
Jefferson16,57356.53%11,96740.82%7772.65%4,60615.71%29,317
Kanawha43,35257.39%30,23140.02%1,9552.59%13,12117.37%75,538
Lewis5,55078.75%1,37219.47%1261.78%4,17859.28%7,048
Lincoln5,77080.28%1,27917.80%1381.92%4,49162.48%7,187
Logan9,50082.83%1,84816.11%1211.06%7,65266.72%11,469
Marion15,88164.47%8,18533.23%5682.30%7,69631.24%24,634
Marshall9,80874.12%3,18624.08%2391.80%6,62250.04%13,233
Mason8,23278.05%2,11120.02%2041.93%6,12158.03%10,547
McDowell4,31079.45%1,03619.10%791.45%3,27460.35%5,425
Mercer18,37277.70%4,85120.52%4221.78%13,52157.18%23,645
Mineral10,24779.41%2,48319.24%1741.35%7,76460.17%12,904
Mingo7,32586.28%1,06112.50%1041.22%6,26473.78%8,490
Monongalia21,08450.56%19,26546.20%1,3493.24%1,8194.36%41,698
Monroe5,08979.81%1,15518.11%1322.08%3,93461.70%6,376
Morgan7,00976.74%1,94721.32%1781.94%5,06255.42%9,134
Nicholas7,96079.31%1,91919.12%1581.57%6,04160.19%10,037
Ohio11,59361.77%6,72735.84%4482.39%4,86625.93%18,768
Pendleton2,68778.45%68019.85%581.70%2,00758.60%3,425
Pleasants2,63278.61%65619.59%601.80%1,97659.02%3,348
Pocahontas2,88974.06%92723.76%852.18%1,96250.30%3,901
Preston11,17677.24%2,95320.41%3402.35%8,22356.83%14,469
Putnam19,86872.23%7,12425.90%5151.87%12,74446.33%27,507
Raleigh23,64476.35%6,81622.01%5061.64%16,82854.34%30,966
Randolph8,35672.07%3,00825.94%2301.99%5,34846.13%11,594
Ritchie3,47385.75%51712.77%601.48%2,95672.98%4,050
Roane4,18975.87%1,21822.06%1142.07%2,97153.81%5,521
Summers3,93174.68%1,22623.29%1072.03%2,70551.39%5,264
Taylor5,42274.39%1,69423.24%1732.37%3,72851.15%7,289
Tucker2,66973.40%89024.48%772.12%1,77948.92%3,636
Tyler2,99182.69%55415.32%721.99%2,43767.37%3,617
Upshur7,63377.42%2,03320.62%1931.96%5,60056.80%9,859
Wayne11,93475.79%3,53222.43%2811.78%8,40253.36%15,747
Webster2,47882.66%47915.98%411.36%1,99966.68%2,998
Wetzel4,71876.49%1,29420.98%1562.53%3,42455.51%6,168
Wirt2,12082.14%40915.85%522.01%1,71166.29%2,581
Wood26,38070.46%10,31727.56%7431.98%16,06342.90%37,440
Wyoming6,50385.96%98012.95%821.09%5,52373.01%7,565
Totals533,55669.87%214,30928.06%15,8142.07%319,24741.81%763,679

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won both congressional districts.[25]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st71.25%26.89%Carol Miller
2nd68.82%29.23%Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdeKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored byWest Virginia MetroNews
  2. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"November 5, 2024 - General Election - Turnout".West Virginia Secretary of State.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  3. ^"2024 Senate Election Interactive Map - 270toWin".270toWin.com. RetrievedJuly 15, 2024.
  4. ^"West Virginia Democratic Delegation 2024".www.thegreenpapers.com. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2024.
  5. ^abc"Who is running for election in West Virginia?".ballotpedia.org. February 4, 2024. RetrievedFebruary 4, 2024.
  6. ^"West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. RetrievedJuly 30, 2024.
  7. ^"West Virginia Republican Presidential Nominating Process".thegreenpapers.com. October 13, 2023. RetrievedNovember 18, 2023.
  8. ^"West Virginia Presidential Primary". AP News. June 24, 2024. RetrievedJuly 30, 2024.
  9. ^"Apportionment of GPUS National Committee 2023 and GPUS Presidential Nominating Convention 2024". GPUS National Committee. RetrievedFebruary 3, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  13. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  14. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  15. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  16. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  17. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  18. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  19. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News. December 17, 2024.
  20. ^McElhinny, Brad (August 30, 2024)."West Virginia Poll: solid leads for Morrisey and Justice in upcoming election".West Virginia MetroNews.
  21. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  22. ^Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023)."West Virginia 2024 Poll: Sen. Manchin Faces Uphill Battle Against Gov. Justice, but Leads Rep. Mooney".Emerson Polling.
  23. ^"WEST VIRGINIA Poll - Kaplan Strategies"(PDF).Kaplan Strategies. June 6, 2024.
  24. ^"Official 2024 Presidential General Election Results"(PDF).Federal Election Commission. January 16, 2025. RetrievedJanuary 18, 2025.
  25. ^https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::aaaa571f-f204-4cbe-bcf1-404db0519d36
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