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2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky

← 2020
November 5, 2024
2028 →
Turnout58.5%[1]Decrease
 
NomineeDonald TrumpKamala Harris
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaCalifornia
Running mateJD VanceTim Walz
Electoral vote80
Popular vote1,337,494704,043
Percentage64.47%33.94%

County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Harris

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Tie/No Data

  
  


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Main article:2024 United States presidential election
Elections in Kentucky
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The2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.Kentucky voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kentucky has 8 electoral votes in the Electoral College, followingreapportionment due to the2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[2]

Prior to the election, all major news organizations once again considered Kentucky a safered state; the state has voted Republican and by double-digit margins in every presidential election since2000.

On election night, Kentucky votedRepublican for former presidentDonald Trump by a wide margin for the third time in a row, with him winning the state by 30.53%, a considerable increase from his 25.94% victory in2020 and to a lesser extent his 29.84% victory in2016. He received about 1.34 million Kentucky votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in state history.

This is the best performance by a Republican presidential candidate inthe state's history. Trump's vote share of 64.4% is also the third-highest in state history, behind only1864 and1868.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Kentucky Democratic presidential primary

The Kentucky Democratic presidential primary was held on May 21, 2024, alongside theOregon primary.

Kentucky Democratic primary, May 21, 2024[3]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)131,44971.33%4343
Uncommitted32,90817.86%88
Marianne Williamson11,1906.07%0
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)8,7444.74%0
Total:184,291100.00%53659

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article:2024 Kentucky Republican presidential caucuses

The Kentucky Republican caucuses were held on May 21, 2024, alongside theOregon primary.

Kentucky Republican primary, May 21, 2024[4]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump215,04485.0%4646
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)16,2326.4%
Uncommitted8,9843.5%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,8033.1%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)2,4611.0%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,6400.7%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)9000.4%
Total:253,064100.0%4646

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following candidates qualified for the general election ballot:[5]

Additionally, Kentucky voters had the option towrite-in a name for president as long as said candidate filed for office before October 25. Eleven such candidates filed, although only nine received at least one vote.[6]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[7]Solid RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections[8]Solid RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]Safe RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10]Safe RDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis[11]Solid RDecember 30, 2023
CNN[12]Solid RJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist[13]Safe RJune 12, 2024
538[14]Solid RJune 11, 2024
RCP[15]Solid RJune 26, 2024
NBC News[16]Safe ROctober 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][A]April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)60%35%5%
Emerson College[18]October 1–3, 2023450 (RV)± 4.6%55%26%19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[19]August 9–10, 2023737 (V)55%34%11%
co/efficient (R)[20]May 18–19, 2023987 (LV)± 3.1%57%33%10%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][A]April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)52%35%13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[17][A]April 13–21, 2024402 (LV)61%29%10%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Kentucky[21]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican1,337,49464.47%+2.38%
Democratic704,04333.94%–2.21%
Independent16,7690.81%N/A
Kentucky7,5660.36%+0.33%
Libertarian6,4220.31%–0.92%
Independent
1,0150.05%N/A
American Solidarity
6110.03%+0.01%
Socialism and Liberation
3910.02%+0.02%
Independent
1770.01%N/A
Independent
140.00%N/A
Independent
  • Jay Bowman (write-in)
  • De Bowman (write-in)
100.00%N/A
Socialist Equality
80.00%N/A
Independent
  • John Cheng (write-in)
  • Wayne Waligorski (write-in)
50.00%N/A
Independent
  • Billy Kelly (write-in)
  • Jason Holderman (write-in)
40.00%N/A
Independent
  • Cherunda Fox (write-in)
  • Harlan McVay (write-in)
10.00%N/A
Total votes2,074,530100.00%N/A

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair7,64385.17%1,25714.01%740.82%6,38671.16%8,974
Allen7,82483.07%1,50515.98%890.95%6,31967.09%9,418
Anderson9,65073.69%3,22624.64%2191.67%6,42449.05%13,095
Ballard3,33181.48%69717.05%601.47%2,63464.43%4,088
Barren15,01975.85%4,56523.05%2181.10%10,45452.80%19,802
Bath4,04174.99%1,27823.71%701.30%2,76351.28%5,389
Bell7,83183.84%1,41915.19%900.97%6,41268.65%9,340
Boone45,65067.71%20,60130.56%1,1701.73%25,04937.15%67,421
Bourbon6,28465.89%3,08832.38%1651.73%3,19633.51%9,537
Boyd14,36368.56%6,29130.03%2971.41%8,07238.53%20,951
Boyle9,15963.72%4,99034.72%2241.56%4,16929.00%14,373
Bracken3,39981.84%70216.90%521.26%2,69764.94%4,153
Breathitt4,03678.86%1,00219.58%801.56%3,03459.28%5,118
Breckinridge7,88278.44%2,03820.28%1281.28%5,84458.16%10,048
Bullitt32,29974.75%10,28023.79%6301.46%22,01950.96%43,209
Butler4,90582.53%96516.24%731.23%3,94066.29%5,943
Caldwell4,86078.54%1,25620.30%721.16%3,60458.24%6,188
Calloway11,53968.10%5,11130.16%2951.74%6,42837.94%16,945
Campbell28,45058.86%18,95239.21%9321.93%9,49819.65%48,334
Carlisle2,18283.60%40815.63%200.77%1,77467.97%2,610
Carroll3,01474.88%96323.93%481.19%2,05150.95%4,025
Carter8,98178.63%2,30520.18%1361.19%6,67658.45%11,422
Casey6,21687.80%80411.36%600.84%5,41276.44%7,080
Christian14,33266.13%7,05532.56%2841.31%7,27733.57%21,671
Clark11,95066.82%5,63931.53%2961.65%6,31135.29%17,885
Clay6,72989.41%6929.19%1051.40%6,03780.22%7,526
Clinton4,27687.43%54911.22%661.35%3,72776.21%4,891
Crittenden3,34983.52%60815.16%531.32%2,74168.36%4,010
Cumberland2,92284.89%48314.03%371.08%2,43970.86%3,442
Daviess30,70565.20%15,67333.28%7191.52%15,03231.92%47,097
Edmonson5,04880.81%1,11817.90%811.29%3,93062.91%6,247
Elliott2,33580.13%53218.26%471.61%1,80361.87%2,914
Estill5,09180.94%1,11417.71%851.35%3,97763.23%6,290
Fayette57,34739.84%83,38757.93%3,2012.22%-26,040-18.09%143,935
Fleming5,57879.69%1,33419.06%881.25%4,24460.63%7,000
Floyd12,32678.64%3,06119.53%2861.83%9,26559.11%15,673
Franklin13,24651.41%11,99646.56%5212.03%1,2504.85%25,763
Fulton1,49169.51%63629.65%180.84%85539.86%2,145
Gallatin3,10979.37%76119.43%471.20%2,34859.94%3,917
Garrard7,08679.47%1,71919.28%1121.25%5,36760.19%8,917
Grant9,37281.72%1,94416.95%1531.33%7,42864.77%11,469
Graves13,37880.21%3,10518.62%1951.17%10,27361.59%16,678
Grayson9,71080.28%2,23518.48%1501.24%7,47561.80%12,095
Green5,03385.93%78213.35%420.72%4,25172.58%5,857
Greenup12,96174.60%4,18124.06%2321.34%8,78050.54%17,374
Hancock3,37572.85%1,17325.32%851.83%2,20247.53%4,633
Hardin30,67263.79%16,57234.47%8381.74%14,10029.32%48,082
Harlan9,10987.69%1,19911.54%800.77%7,91076.15%10,388
Harrison6,63973.62%2,26525.12%1141.26%4,37448.50%9,018
Hart6,69179.57%1,64219.53%760.90%5,04960.04%8,409
Henderson12,59263.96%6,83734.73%2591.31%5,75529.23%19,688
Henry6,09375.46%1,85723.00%1241.54%4,23652.46%8,074
Hickman1,65680.04%39419.04%190.92%1,26261.00%2,069
Hopkins15,36174.80%4,91623.94%2601.27%10,44550.86%20,537
Jackson5,35890.14%5068.51%801.35%4,85281.63%5,944
Jefferson144,55340.64%203,07057.09%8,0992.27%-58,517-16.45%355,722
Jessamine17,85466.91%8,30331.11%5281.98%9,55135.80%26,685
Johnson8,15084.57%1,35014.01%1371.42%6,80070.56%9,637
Kenton48,44459.63%30,85937.98%1,9382.39%17,58521.65%81,241
Knott4,73278.67%1,18119.63%1021.70%3,55159.04%6,015
Knox11,17884.82%1,82113.82%1801.36%9,35771.00%13,179
LaRue5,77379.53%1,38919.13%971.34%4,38460.40%7,259
Laurel23,51684.17%4,03714.45%3851.38%19,47969.72%27,938
Lawrence5,46483.12%1,04415.88%661.00%4,42067.24%6,574
Lee2,22782.63%40615.06%622.31%1,82167.57%2,695
Leslie3,90889.67%3828.77%681.56%3,52680.90%4,358
Letcher6,84881.22%1,45717.28%1261.49%5,39163.94%8,431
Lewis4,99787.34%66611.64%581.02%4,33175.70%5,721
Lincoln8,83380.05%2,08018.85%1211.10%6,75361.20%11,034
Livingston4,02180.87%88617.82%651.31%3,13563.05%4,972
Logan9,62076.89%2,73421.85%1571.26%6,88655.04%12,511
Lyon3,18776.12%95022.69%501.19%2,23753.43%4,187
McCracken21,34966.83%10,19131.90%4071.27%11,15834.93%31,947
McCreary5,53189.04%64110.32%400.64%4,89078.72%6,212
McLean3,57877.21%98921.34%671.45%2,58955.87%4,634
Madison29,13064.26%15,18033.49%1,0192.25%13,95030.77%45,329
Magoffin4,28881.18%90917.21%851.61%3,37963.97%5,282
Marion6,47371.12%2,51327.61%1161.27%3,96043.51%9,102
Marshall13,67777.70%3,70021.02%2251.28%9,97756.68%17,602
Martin3,34391.39%2877.85%280.76%3,05683.54%3,658
Mason5,62171.14%2,17027.46%1101.40%3,45143.68%7,901
Meade10,63075.27%3,27923.22%2141.51%7,35152.05%14,123
Menifee2,56377.67%66420.12%732.21%1,89957.55%3,300
Mercer8,82674.47%2,83823.95%1871.58%5,98850.52%11,851
Metcalfe4,19781.86%88417.24%460.90%3,31364.62%5,127
Monroe4,67988.15%57610.85%531.00%4,10377.30%5,308
Montgomery9,30272.55%3,32925.97%1901.48%5,97346.58%12,821
Morgan4,35380.94%93917.46%861.60%3,41463.48%5,378
Muhlenberg10,49176.62%3,04822.26%1531.12%7,44354.36%13,692
Nelson16,05270.24%6,51528.51%2851.25%9,53741.73%22,852
Nicholas2,45173.85%82424.83%441.32%1,62749.02%3,319
Ohio8,67979.35%2,09419.15%1641.50%6,58560.20%10,937
Oldham23,02560.26%14,40237.69%7832.05%8,62322.57%38,210
Owen4,43480.62%98817.96%781.42%3,44662.66%5,500
Owsley1,62588.36%20311.04%110.60%1,42277.32%1,839
Pendleton5,59381.06%1,21017.54%971.40%4,38363.52%6,900
Perry7,91379.19%1,96619.68%1131.13%5,94759.51%9,992
Pike19,68482.19%4,02516.81%2411.00%15,65965.38%23,950
Powell4,09276.22%1,17421.87%1031.91%2,91854.35%5,369
Pulaski26,05182.09%5,35116.86%3331.05%20,70065.23%31,735
Robertson91579.98%21518.79%141.23%70061.19%1,144
Rockcastle6,63585.76%98612.74%1161.50%5,64973.02%7,737
Rowan6,22463.04%3,48435.29%1651.67%2,74027.75%9,873
Russell7,62285.71%1,20013.49%710.80%6,42272.22%8,893
Scott18,74762.97%10,50135.27%5211.76%8,24627.70%29,769
Shelby16,35666.43%7,82231.77%4421.80%8,53434.66%24,620
Simpson6,25371.25%2,40327.38%1201.37%3,85043.87%8,776
Spencer8,92777.76%2,41521.04%1381.20%6,51256.72%11,480
Taylor9,52377.67%2,57621.01%1621.32%6,94756.66%12,261
Todd4,00978.42%1,05120.56%521.02%2,95857.86%5,112
Trigg5,43675.54%1,66723.17%931.29%3,76952.37%7,196
Trimble3,28377.27%92321.72%431.01%2,36055.55%4,249
Union4,75878.54%1,22520.22%751.24%3,53358.32%6,058
Warren34,86261.28%21,06537.03%9641.69%13,79724.25%56,891
Washington4,72074.44%1,53324.18%881.38%3,18750.26%6,341
Wayne7,20382.48%1,44416.53%860.99%5,75965.95%8,733
Webster4,33978.10%1,15320.75%641.15%3,18657.35%5,556
Whitley12,68784.16%2,23714.84%1511.00%10,45069.32%15,075
Wolfe2,16374.10%68923.60%672.30%1,47450.50%2,919
Woodford8,41956.15%6,28241.90%2921.95%2,13714.25%14,993
Totals1,337,49464.47%704,04333.94%32,9931.59%633,45130.53%2,074,530
Swing by county:
  Republican — +0-2.5%
  Republican — +2.5-5%
  Republican — +5-7.5%
  Republican — +7.5-10%
  Republican — +10-12.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won five of six congressional districts.[22]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st72.99%25.71%James Comer
2nd69.92%28.61%Brett Guthrie
3rd39.62%58.53%Morgan McGarvey
4th66.91%31.37%Thomas Massie
5th81.33%17.45%Hal Rogers
6th56.54%41.52%Andy Barr

Analysis

[edit]

ASouthern state completely in theBible Belt, Republicans have won Kentucky by double digits since2000. The state last voted Democratic for fellow SouthernerBill Clinton in1996.

Kentucky handed RepublicanDonald Trump a decisive victory, doing so by a margin of 633,451 votes. This election marks the fourth consecutive cycle in which a presidential candidate secured over 60% of the Kentuckian vote. Notably, Trump improved his margins in every county and gained significant support across all demographics, performing better insuburban,rural, andurban areas.[23]

Trump notably expanded his support in Kentucky'sCumberland Plateau region, theFrankfort micropolitan area, andWarren County, home toBowling Green.

InElliott County, Trump received 80% of the vote, the highest vote share in its history. In 2004, Elliott County had given Democratic nomineeJohn Kerry 70% of the vote, despite Kerry and Harris winning 48.3% of the national popular vote. Trump is the first Republican to have ever won Elliott County in presidential elections.

In Warren County, Trump received 61.3% of the vote, marking the strongest Republican performance in a presidential election sinceGeorge W. Bush in2004. Additionally, Trump regained some ground in the Democratic strongholds ofJefferson andFayette counties.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Candidate has suspended campaign
  2. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^Replacement forButch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcPoll conducted forKennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^"KY 2022 Congressional"(PDF). RetrievedOctober 4, 2025.
  2. ^Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021)."Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats".NPR.Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. RetrievedFebruary 7, 2023.
  3. ^"Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. RetrievedMay 20, 2024.
  4. ^"Kentucky Presidential Primary". The AP. July 2, 2024. RetrievedJuly 12, 2024.
  5. ^"Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State".Kentucky Secretary of State. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2024.
  6. ^"Potential Candidates"(PDF).Kentucky Secretary of State. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2024.
  7. ^"2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings".cookpolitical.com.Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  8. ^"Presidential Ratings".insideelections.com.Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 Electoral College ratings".centerforpolitics.org.University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  10. ^"2024 presidential predictions".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. December 14, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  11. ^"2024 Presidential Forecast".projects.cnalysis.com/.CNalysis. December 30, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  12. ^"Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 14, 2024.
  13. ^"Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model".The Economist. RetrievedJune 12, 2024.
  14. ^Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024)."2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 11, 2024. RetrievedJune 11, 2024.
  15. ^"2024 RCP Electoral College Map".RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. RetrievedJune 26, 2024.
  16. ^"Presidential Election Preview 2024".NBC News.
  17. ^abc"Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump".Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  18. ^Mumford, Camille (October 6, 2023)."Kentucky 2023 Poll: Beshear Holds 16-Point Lead Over Cameron in Gubernatorial Election".Emerson Polling.
  19. ^"Kentucky Survey Results"(PDF).Public Policy Polling. August 10, 2023.
  20. ^"Kentucky Governor Memo 5.21 - co/efficient".co/efficient. May 22, 2023. Archived fromthe original on May 22, 2023.
  21. ^"2024 General Election Certification as Amended on December 9th 2024"(PDF).elect.ky.gov. Kentucky State Board of Elections. RetrievedDecember 20, 2024.
  22. ^"DRA 2020".Daves Redistricting. RetrievedOctober 4, 2025.
  23. ^"Kentucky Presidential Election Results".The New York Times. November 5, 2024.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedNovember 12, 2024.
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