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2024 United States Senate election in Washington

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Not to be confused with2024 Washington State Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Washington
← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
 
NomineeMaria CantwellRaul Garcia
PartyDemocraticRepublican
Popular vote2,252,5771,549,187
Percentage59.09%40.64%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Cantwell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Garcia:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Maria Cantwell
Democratic

Elections in Washington (state)
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The2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofWashington.Democratic incumbent SenatorMaria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning overRepublican physician Raul Garcia.

Cantwell improved on her prior2018 performance, in spite of a much more Republican national environment. Cantwell won 59.09% of the vote, up from 58.43% in 2018. Washington also had the smallest swing in the concurrent presidential race of any state, swinging rightward in 2024 by just 1% from the2020 presidential election in Washington.

Cantwell slightly outperformedKamala Harris in the concurrentU.S. presidential election in Washington, winningPacific County which also voted forDonald Trump. Cantwell won by a margin of 18.45%, narrowly higher than Harris's 18.22% margin.

Primary election

[edit]

The blanket primary election was held on August 6, 2024.[1]

Democratic candidates

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[3]

Republican candidates

[edit]

Advanced to general

[edit]
  • Raul Garcia, physician and candidate for governor in2020[4]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate[3]
  • Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in2022[3]
  • Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in2016[3]
  • Mel Ram, private investigator[3]

Declined

[edit]

Third party and independent candidates

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[3]
  • Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[3]
  • Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[3]
  • David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[3]

Endorsements

[edit]
Maria Cantwell (D)

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Tribes

Raul Garcia (R)

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Maria Cantwell (D)$11,651,974$5,128,836$7,093,030
Raul Garcia (R)$558,646$394,077$164,568
Isaac Holyk (R)$6,846$7,278$0
Source:Federal Election Commission[28]

Results

[edit]
County results
  Cantwell
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   70–80%
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
County results
Congressional district results
  Cantwell
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   80–90%
  Garcia
  •   30–40%
Congressional district results

Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populousKing County, as well asSan Juan andJefferson counties.[29]

Blanket primary results[30]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticMaria Cantwell (incumbent)1,114,32757.18%
RepublicanRaul Garcia431,18222.13%
RepublicanScott Nazarino111,3865.72%
RepublicanIsaac Holyk110,7015.68%
RepublicanMel Ram86,9564.46%
IndependentChuck Jackson21,0551.08%
IndependentDavid Tilton17,5610.90%
DemocraticPaul Giesick17,4330.89%
RepublicanGoodspaceguy16,8260.86%
IndependentThor Amundson10,5870.54%
Socialist WorkersHenry Dennison7,8400.40%
Write-in2,8620.15%
Total votes1,948,716100.0%

General election

[edit]

Debate

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Washington debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Maria CantwellRaul Garcia
1Oct. 8, 2024Gonzaga University
KSPS-TV
The Black Lens
The Spokesman-Review
Washington State Debate Coalition		Orion Donovan SmithTVW[31]PP

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[32]Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections[33]Solid DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34]Safe DNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[35]Safe DJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily[36]Safe DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis[37]Solid DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[38]Solid DAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket[39]Safe DOctober 23, 2024
538[40]Solid DOctober 23, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Raul
Garcia (R)		Undecided
[a]		Margin
270ToWin[41]October 20 - November 4, 2024November 4, 202455.5%38.0%6.5%Cantwell +17.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[42]through November 3, 2024November 4, 202457.8%38.9%3.3%Cantwell +18.9%
Average56.7%38.5%4.8%Cantwell +18.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Raul
Garcia (R)		OtherUndecided
Research Co.[43]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%58%38%–4%
Public Policy Polling (D)[44][A]October 16–17, 2024571 (LV)± 4.1%53%38%–9%
SurveyUSA[45][B]October 9–14, 2024703 (LV)± 4.9%55%32%–13%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[46]September 3–6, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%55%33%4%[c]7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[47][A]July 24–25, 2024581 (LV)± 4.0%55%32%6%[d]7%
SurveyUSA[48][B]July 10–13, 2024564 (LV)± 5.1%58%37%–5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[49][A]May 15–16, 2024615 (LV)± 4.0%53%38%–9%
Cascade PBS/Elway Research[50]May 13–16, 2024403 (RV)± 5.0%39%30%1%[e]30%
Echelon Insights (R)[51][C]March 18–21, 2024600 (RV)± 4.7%44%36%–19%
Public Policy Polling (D)[52][A]February 13–14, 2024789 (LV)± 3.5%53%37%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[53][A]November 14–15, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%51%38%–11%
Elway Research[54][D]October 30 – November 3, 2023403 (RV)± 5.0%43%23%9%[f]25%
Hypothetical polling

Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[b]		Margin
of error		Maria
Cantwell (D)		Jaime
Herrera Beutler (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[55][A]June 7–8, 2023773 (LV)± 3.5%52%37%11%
Public Policy Polling (D)[56][A]March 7–8, 2023874 (LV)± 3.3%50%35%14%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Washington[57]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticMaria Cantwell (incumbent)2,252,57759.09%+0.66%
RepublicanRaul Garcia1,549,18740.64%−0.93%
Write-in10,6270.28%N/A
Total votes3,812,391100.00%N/A
Democratichold

By county

[edit]
By county
County[58]Maria Cantwell

Democratic

Raul Garcia

Republican

Write-in

Various

MarginTotal
%#%#%#%#
Adams31.44%1,62767.71%3,5040.85%44–36.27%–1,8775,175
Asotin39.70%4,38659.98%6,6270.33%36–20.28%–2,24111,049
Benton40.52%39,59559.16%57,8040.32%313–18.64%–18,20997,712
Chelan45.89%18,88453.87%22,1680.23%96–7.98%–3,28441,148
Clallam53.96%25,48745.86%21,6630.18%838.10%3,82447,233
Clark53.57%142,66946.08%122,7120.34%9187.49%19,957266,299
Columbia30.81%74568.57%1,6580.62%15–37.76%–9132,418
Cowlitz42.42%24,32957.28%32,8540.30%171–14.86%–8,52557,354
Douglas38.32%7,89261.37%12,6370.31%64–23.04%–4,74520,593
Ferry35.80%1,43164.00%2,5580.20%8–28.20%–1,1273,997
Franklin40.71%12,53859.13%18,2120.16%50–18.42%–5,67430,800
Garfield30.82%41369.10%9260.07%1–38.28%–5131,340
Grant33.20%11,66466.59%23,3900.21%74–33.38%–11,72635,128
Grays Harbor48.90%18,06150.82%18,7720.28%105–1.92%–71136,938
Island57.28%29,21642.50%21,6770.22%11414.78%7,53951,007
Jefferson72.28%17,62127.52%6,7080.20%4944.77%10,91324,378
King75.06%828,20424.64%271,8320.31%3,37050.42%556,3721,103,406
Kitsap59.55%91,34840.24%61,7340.21%32719.30%29,614153,409
Kittitas42.98%11,02856.73%14,5560.28%73–13.75%–3,52825,657
Klickitat45.42%5,96254.28%7,1250.30%40–8.86%–1,16313,127
Lewis36.10%15,91263.60%28,0300.30%132–27.49%–12,11844,074
Lincoln26.96%1,88972.77%5,0990.27%19–45.81%–3,2107,007
Mason49.39%17,59350.15%17,8650.45%162–0.76%–27235,620
Okanogan44.81%9,02254.93%11,0600.25%51–10.12%–2,03820,133
Pacific52.46%7,27347.26%6,5520.27%385.20%72113,863
Pend Oreille32.67%2,72167.05%5,5850.28%23–34.39%–2,8648,329
Pierce54.96%235,82944.83%192,3660.21%89910.13%43,463429,094
San Juan74.38%9,46625.26%3,2140.36%4649.13%6,25212,726
Skagit53.82%34,47245.96%29,4380.22%1437.86%5,03464,053
Skamania45.28%3,20654.44%3,8550.28%20–9.17%–6497,081
Snohomish58.85%239,05940.90%166,1170.25%1,02017.96%72,942406,196
Spokane47.86%132,64451.84%143,6800.30%842–3.98%–11,036277,166
Stevens29.59%8,13870.06%19,2700.35%96–40.47%–11,13227,504
Thurston59.92%96,08639.79%63,7960.29%46220.14%32,290160,344
Wahkiakum44.18%1,30555.55%1,6410.27%8–11.37%–3362,954
Walla Walla47.06%13,62152.83%15,2930.11%32–5.78%–1,67228,946
Whatcom61.53%83,35538.26%51,8360.21%29023.26%31,519135,481
Whitman54.62%10,69845.21%8,8560.17%349.40%1,84219,588
Yakima44.24%37,18855.34%46,5170.43%359–11.10%–9,32984,064
Total59.09%2,252,57740.64%1,549,1870.28%10,62718.45%703,3903,812,391
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%

By congressional district

[edit]

Cantwell won seven of ten congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Garcia, including one that elected a Democrat.[59]

DistrictCantwellGarciaRepresentative
1st63%37%Suzan DelBene
2nd61%39%Rick Larsen
3rd49%50%Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
4th41%58%Dan Newhouse
5th45%54%Cathy McMorris Rodgers (118th Congress)
Michael Baumgartner (119th Congress)
6th59%41%Derek Kilmer (118th Congress)
Emily Randall (119th Congress)
7th86%13%Pramila Jayapal
8th52%48%Kim Schrier
9th71%28%Adam Smith
10th59%41%Marilyn Strickland

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^abKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^"No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
  4. ^"Another candidate" with 6%
  5. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^"A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefgPoll sponsored by theNorthwest Progressive Institute
  2. ^abPoll sponsored byThe Seattle Times,KING-TV, andUniversity of Washington Information School
  3. ^Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
  4. ^Poll sponsored byCrosscut.com

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Primary elections in Washington, 2024".Ballotpedia. RetrievedNovember 10, 2023.
  2. ^Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023)."Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?".Smart Politics. RetrievedJuly 7, 2023.eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
  3. ^abcdefghi"PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List".voter.votewa.gov. RetrievedMay 9, 2024.
  4. ^Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023)."Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024".KING-TV. RetrievedJuly 7, 2023.
  5. ^Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024)."Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedFebruary 16, 2024.[Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
  6. ^"Support Pro-Israel Candidates".AIPAC PAC. RetrievedApril 7, 2023.
  7. ^Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023)."Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate".Emilys List. RetrievedOctober 2, 2023.
  8. ^"2024 – Feminist Majority PAC".feministmajoritypac.org. RetrievedFebruary 9, 2024.
  9. ^"2024 Endorsements".2024 Endorsements. RetrievedMarch 25, 2024.
  10. ^"Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel".Jewish Democratic Council of America. RetrievedMay 10, 2024.
  11. ^"Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs".jacpac.org. Archived fromthe original on September 1, 2023. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2023.
  12. ^"Maria Cantwell".JStreetPAC. RetrievedAugust 26, 2023.
  13. ^"LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements".League of Conservation Voters. RetrievedJuly 27, 2023.
  14. ^Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023)."NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents".NRDC Action Fund. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2023.
  15. ^"Endorsed Candidates".National Women's Political Caucus. RetrievedMarch 18, 2024.
  16. ^"2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates".Planned Parenthood Action Fund. RetrievedNovember 6, 2023.
  17. ^"2024 Endorsements".Population Connection Action Fund. RetrievedAugust 25, 2023.
  18. ^"Our Recommended Candidates".Education Votes. RetrievedMay 26, 2024.
  19. ^Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024)."Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle".NPI's Cascadia Advocate. RetrievedMay 26, 2024.
  20. ^Editorial Board, The Seattle Times (July 19, 2024)."The Seattle Times editorial board recommends: Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate".The Seattle Times.Archived from the original on December 27, 2024. RetrievedOctober 22, 2025.
  21. ^Board, Stranger Election Control."The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election".The Stranger. RetrievedJuly 22, 2024.
  22. ^staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024)."Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election".Source ONE News. RetrievedJuly 22, 2024.
  23. ^O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023)."Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run".Crosscut.com. RetrievedJuly 12, 2023.
  24. ^abcdefVilleneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023)."Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points".The Cascadia Advocate. RetrievedNovember 29, 2023.
  25. ^https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
  26. ^"Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. RetrievedApril 23, 2024.
  27. ^https://spokanegop.com/
  28. ^"2024 Election United States Senate - Washington".fec.gov.Federal Election Commission. RetrievedAugust 11, 2023.
  29. ^"2024 Washington Election Results".AP News. RetrievedAugust 22, 2024.
  30. ^Hobbs, Steve (August 22, 2024)."Canvass of the Returns of the Primary Held on August 6, 2024"(PDF).Secretary of State of Washington.Archived(PDF) from the original on July 6, 2025. RetrievedJuly 15, 2025.
  31. ^TVW
  32. ^"2024 Senate Race ratings".Cook Political Report. RetrievedJanuary 25, 2023.
  33. ^"Senate Ratings".Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2023.
  34. ^"2024 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. RetrievedFebruary 13, 2023.
  35. ^"2024 Senate prediction map".elections2024.thehill.com/.The Hill. June 8, 2024. RetrievedJune 8, 2024.
  36. ^"Election Ratings".Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. RetrievedAugust 2, 2023.
  37. ^"'24 Senate Forecast".CNalysis. RetrievedNovember 21, 2023.
  38. ^"Battle for the Senate 2024".RealClearPolitics. RetrievedAugust 5, 2024.
  39. ^"2024 Senate Forecast".Split Ticket. RetrievedOctober 23, 2024.
  40. ^"2024 Election Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on November 1, 2024. RetrievedOctober 23, 2024.
  41. ^270ToWin
  42. ^TheHill/DDHQ
  43. ^Research Co.
  44. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  45. ^SurveyUSA
  46. ^Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  47. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  48. ^SurveyUSA
  49. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  50. ^Cascade PBS/Elway Research
  51. ^Echelon Insights (R)
  52. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  53. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  54. ^Elway Research
  55. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  56. ^Public Policy Polling (D)
  57. ^Hobbs, Steve (December 4, 2024)."Canvass of the Returns of the General Election Held on November 5, 2024"(PDF).Secretary of State of Washington.Archived(PDF) from the original on July 4, 2025. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  58. ^Hobbs, Steve (November 5, 2024)."U.S. Senator - County Results".Secretary of State of Washington.Archived from the original on May 29, 2025. RetrievedJuly 14, 2025.
  59. ^"2024Gen Results by Congressional District"(PDF).sos.wa.gov.Archived(PDF) from the original on December 28, 2024.

External links

[edit]

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