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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2024 American election
Main article:2024 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with2024 Pennsylvania Senate election.

2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 →
 
NomineeDave McCormickBob Casey Jr.
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote3,399,2953,384,180
Percentage48.82%48.60%
County results
Congressional district results
McCormick:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Casey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dave McCormick
Republican

Elections in Pennsylvania
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2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2016
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2024
U.S. Senate
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Attorney General
Auditor General
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State Senate
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Government

The2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent the state ofPennsylvania. IncumbentDemocratic SenatorBob Casey Jr. lost re-election to a fourth term, being defeated byRepublican nomineeDave McCormick in what was considered a majorupset.[1] Most predictions gave Casey a slight advantage, and he led in most polls. Along withSherrod Brown inOhio andJon Tester inMontana, Casey was one of three incumbent senators to lose re-election in 2024, all of whom were Democrats first elected in2006.[2]

The primary election took place on April 23, 2024.[3] The election was considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain their majority in 2024.[4] TheAssociated Press andFox News declared McCormick the winner on November 7,[5] whileDecision Desk HQ called the race for McCormick on November 14.[6]CNN,NBC,ABC, andCBS all called the race for McCormick on November 21; Casey conceded the race later that day.[7] A recount confirmed the result.[8]

This was Pennsylvania's closest US Senate election since the passage of theSeventeenth Amendment, as well as the closest Senate election of the 2024 cycle. McCormick was the only Republican challenger to win in a state flipped by Trump in the2024 presidential election. The other three Republican Senate gains were in states Trump had won in all three of his runs. With Democrats flipping the other Senate seattwo years earlier, this was the first time since the2012 Senate election in Indiana where the opposite party flipped a seat after losing one in the previous cycle.

Notably, the margin of just 0.22% between the Republican and Democratic candidates is fewer than the votes received by either theLibertarian candidate, John Thomas (1.29% of the vote), theGreen candidate, Leila Hazou (0.95% of the vote), or theConstitution candidate, Marty Selker (0.34% of the vote). This was Casey's first general election loss of his political career, and the second counting Casey's primary election loss in2002. This election made Pennsylvania one of several states to have a youngersenior senator (John Fetterman) and an olderjunior senator (McCormick). McCormick was sworn in on January 3, 2025.

Background

[edit]

Pennsylvania is considered to be apurple state at the federal level, especially since in the2020 presidential election,Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. Democrats had controlled both U.S. Senate seats, the governorship, a majority of itsU.S. Housedelegation, and thePennsylvania House of Representatives. The last time Republicans won aU.S. Senate seat in Pennsylvania was in2016.[9][10][11][12]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in the blue wave of2006, defeating then-incumbent SenatorRick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in2012 by 9 percentage points (when he ran ahead of Obama by almost 4 points) and in the blue wave of2018 by 13 percentage points.[13][14][15] Given these three decisive victories, Casey's fourth term appeared inevitable for much of the race. However, tightening polls in the final weeks indicated a closer contest, even as Casey was largely considered the favorite to win.[16]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr.

Executive officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

Individuals

Political parties

Organizations

Labor unions

Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey Jr. (D)$23,790,263$12,391,802$11,886,480
Source:Federal Election Commission[54]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[55]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticBob Casey Jr. (incumbent)1,024,545100.00%
Total votes1,024,545100.00%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Joseph Vodvarka, spring manufacturer and perennial candidate[58]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Dave McCormick

Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State cabinet officials

U.S senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

Local officials

  • Sam DeMarco, at-largeAllegheny County councilor (2016–present) and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party (2018–present)[76]

Party officials

Organizations

Political parties

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of April 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Dave McCormick (R)$11,052,879$4,660,701$6,399,998
Source:Federal Election Commission[54]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Kathy
Barnette		Doug
Mastriano		David
McCormick		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[85]March 9–10, 2023616 (LV)–11%39%21%29%
––42%28%29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[55]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDave McCormick878,320100.00%
Total votes878,320100.00%

Third parties

[edit]

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • John Thomas, educator[86]

Eliminated at convention

[edit]
  • Erik Gerhardt, carpenter, nominee for U.S. Senate in2022, and candidate for president in2020[87]

Green Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Leila Hazou, shop owner[88]

Constitution Party

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Bernard Selker, truck driver[88]

American Solidarity Party

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[90]TossupOctober 21, 2024
Inside Elections[91]Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[92]Lean DJune 13, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[93]TossupJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily[94]Lean DOctober 24, 2024
CNalysis[95]Lean DNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[96]TossupAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket[97]Lean DOctober 23, 2024
538[98]Lean DOctober 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Bob Casey Jr. (D)

Executive branch officials

Dave McCormick (R)

Former U.S. executive officials

U.S. Senators

Individuals

John Thomas (L)

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Bob Casey (D)$52,879,737$50,545,793$2,821,961
Dave McCormick (R)$27,698,652[b]$26,030,736$1,675,736
Source:Federal Election Commission[54]

Debates

[edit]
2024 Pennsylvania U.S. Senate election debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
CaseyMcCormick
1October 3, 2024WHTM-TVDennis OwensYouTubePP
2October 15, 2024WPVI-TVMatt O'Donnell, Sharrie Williams, Ilia GarciaC-SPANPP

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Dave
McCormick (R)		Undecided
[c]		Margin
538[108]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.2%45.4%6.4%Casey +2.8%
RealClearPolitics[109]October 21 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.1%46.3%5.6%Casey +1.8%
270toWin[110]October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.4%45.9%5.7%Casey +2.5%
TheHill/DDHQ[111]through November 4, 2024November 4, 202448.6%46.6%4.8%Casey +2.0%
Average48.3%46.1%5.6%Casey +2.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Dave
McCormick (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[112]November 3–4, 20241,840 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%2%2%
Survation[113]November 1–4, 2024929 (LV)–49%42%3%[d]6%
Research Co.[114]November 2–3, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%46%2%[e]4%
Patriot Polling (R)[115]November 1–3, 2024903 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%––
The Trafalgar Group (R)[116]November 1–3, 20241,089 (LV)± 2.9%46%47%–7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[117]November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%2%3%
AtlasIntel[118]November 1–2, 20242,049 (LV)± 2.0%49%47%3%[f]2%
Emerson College[119][A]October 30 – November 2, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%47%–6%
New York Times/Siena College[120][B]October 29 – November 2, 20241,527 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%–4%
1,527 (RV)± 2.8%50%45%–6%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[121]October 25 – November 2, 2024699 (LV)± 3.6%49%44%1%[g]6%
726 (RV)± 3.6%48%43%2%[h]7%
Morning Consult[122]October 23 – November 1, 20241,538 (LV)± 3.0%46%43%–11%
AtlasIntel[123]October 30–31, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.0%49%46%3%[f]2%
OnMessage (R)[124]October 29–31, 2024800 (LV)–46%46%–8%
Data for Progress (D)[125]October 25–31, 2024908 (LV)± 3.0%49%45%2%[i]4%
YouGov[126][C]October 25–31, 2024947 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%–6%
982 (RV)50%43%–6%
ActiVote[127]October 14–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50.5%49.5%––
Muhlenberg College[128][D]October 27–30, 2024460 (LV)± 6.0%49%46%3%1%
Suffolk University[129][E]October 27–30, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2%[i]2%
Marist College[130]October 27–30, 20241,400 (LV)± 3.4%50%48%1%[j]1%
1,558 (RV)± 3.2%50%48%1%[j]1%
Echelon Insights[131]October 27–30, 2024600 (LV)± 4.5%44%47%3%[k]5%
The Washington Post[132]October 26–30, 20241,204 (LV)± 3.1%49%46%2%[l]3%
1,204 (RV)49%45%3%[m]3%
AtlasIntel[133]October 25–29, 20241,229 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%3%[f]2%
Fox News[134]October 24–28, 20241,057 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%–1%
1,310 (RV)± 2.5%51%46%1%2%
Quinnipiac University[135]October 24–28, 20242,186 (LV)± 2.1%50%47%2%[n]1%
Monmouth University[136]October 24–28, 2024824 (RV)± 3.8%45%44%–12%
CNN/SSRS[137]October 23–28, 2024819 (LV)± 4.7%48%45%6%[o]1%
CBS News/YouGov[138]October 22–28, 20241,249 (LV)± 3.6%48%42%3%[p]7%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[139]October 26–27, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%47%2%[q]4%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[140][F]October 22–26, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%42%5%[r]9%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[141]October 16–23, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%48%42%3%[s]7%
Emerson College[142][G]October 21–22, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%47%46%2%[t]6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[143]October 18–22, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%49%46%2%[u]4%
Franklin & Marshall College[144]October 9–20, 2024583 (LV)± 5.0%49%48%–3%
794 (RV)± 4.3%48%41%5%[v]6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[145]October 17–19, 20241,084 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%–6%
AtlasIntel[146]October 12–17, 20242,048 (LV)± 2.0%47%48%2%[w]3%
The Bullfinch Group[147]October 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%50%43%–8%
YouGov[148][H]October 7–17, 20241,043 (LV)± 3.44%50%42%–8%
1,062 (RV)± 3.4%49%42%–9%
Morning Consult[122]October 6–15, 20241,395 (LV)± 3.0%49%41%–10%
New York Times/Siena College[149][B]October 7–10, 2024857 (LV)± 3.8%48%44%–8%
857 (RV)± 3.7%48%43%–9%
American Pulse Research & Polling[150]October 2–10, 20241,193 (LV)± 2.8%48%45%2%[x]5%
TIPP Insights (R)[151][F]October 7–9, 2024803 (LV)± 3.5%47%43%1%[y]9%
1,079 (RV)48%40%1%[z]12%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[152]October 2–9, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%48%39%3%[aa]10%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[153]October 7–8, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%45%2%[q]6%
Emerson College[154][A]October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%46%–6%
Research Co.[155]October 5–7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%47%44%1%[ab]8%
Quinnipiac University[156]October 3–7, 20241,412 (LV)± 2.6%51%43%2%[ac]5%
ActiVote[157]September 6 – October 7, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%53%47%––
OnMessage (R)[158][ad]September 28–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%45%44%5%[ae]7%
Patriot Polling (R)[159]September 27–29, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%51%48%––
The Bullfinch Group[160][I]September 26–29, 2024800 (LV)± 3.46%48%39%12%[af]–
52%42%6%[ag]–
The Trafalgar Group (R)[161]September 26–29, 20241,090 (LV)± 2.9%47%46%–7%
Emerson College[162][G]September 27–28, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%–8%
AtlasIntel[163]September 20–25, 20241,775 (LV)± 2.0%47%45%1%[ah]6%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[164][J]September 19–25, 2024474 (LV)–48%42%3%[ai]6%
52%45%–3%
Fox News[165]September 20–24, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%53%44%1%[aj]2%
1,021 (RV)± 3.0%53%44%1%[aj]2%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[166][K]September 17–24, 2024816 (RV)± 3.0%49%45%–6%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[167]September 16–22, 2024700 (LV)± 3.7%48%40%1%[ak]11%
RMG Research[168][L]September 18–20, 2024783 (LV)± 3.5%50%44%1%[aj]5%
Remington Research Group (R)[169][M]September 16–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%–7%
Muhlenberg College[170][D]September 16–19, 2024450 (LV)± 6.0%48%43%5%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[171][N]September 16–19, 20241,086 (LV)± 2.8%47%41%2%[al]10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[172]September 11–19, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%47%38%3%[aa]13%
Emerson College[173][A]September 15–18, 2024880 (LV)± 3.2%47%42%–11%
MassINC Polling Group[174][O]September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 4.0%49%42%2%[am]6%
Morning Consult[122]September 9–18, 20241,756 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%–11%
Marist College[175]September 12–17, 20241,663 (RV)± 2.0%52%46%1%[j]1%
1,476 (LV)± 3.2%52%47%–1%
Quinnipiac University[176]September 12–16, 20241,331 (LV)± 2.7%52%43%1%[an]3%
The Washington Post[177]September 12–16, 20241,003 (LV)± 3.6%47%46%7%[ao]–
48%48%5%[ap]–
New York Times/Siena College[178][B]September 11–16, 20241,082 (RV)± 4.1%48%39%–13%
1,082 (LV)± 4.3%49%40%–11%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[179]September 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%44%2%[q]5%
Franklin & Marshall College[180]September 4–15, 2024890 (RV)± 4.1%48%40%3%[aq]10%
Suffolk University[181][E]September 11–14, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%47%43%2%[ar]8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[182][N]September 6–9, 2024801 (LV)± 3.0%44%36%5%[as]14%
Morning Consult[122]August 30 – September 8, 20241,910 (LV)± 2.0%49%40%–11%
co/efficient (R)[183]September 4–6, 2024889 (LV)± 3.29%45%36%–19%
CBS News/YouGov[184]September 3–6, 20241,076 (LV)± 3.4%48%41%3%[at]8%
YouGov[185][C]August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.6%52%41%–8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[186]August 28–30, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%46%45%–8%
CNN/SRSS[187]August 23–29, 2024789 (LV)± 4.7%46%46%7%[au]1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[188][N]August 25–28, 20241,071 (LV)± 2.8%44%38%4%[av]14%
Emerson College[189][A]August 25–28, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%48%44%–8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[190][P]August 23, 2024713 (LV)–47%41%–12%
800 (RV)–45%40%–15%
ActiVote[191]August 3–23, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%55%45%––
Fabrizio Ward (R)[192][Q]August 19–21, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%46%43%–11%
Cygnal (R)[193]August 14–15, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%–12%
42%38%7%[aw]13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[194][N]August 12–15, 2024825 (LV)± 3.2%44%36%1%[ax]17%
Emerson College[195]August 13–14, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Quinnipiac University[196]August 8–12, 20241,738 (LV)± 2.4%52%44%1%[ay]3%
The Bullfinch Group[197][R]August 8–11, 2024500 (RV)± 4.38%51%39%–10%
Franklin & Marshall College[198]July 31 – August 11, 2024920 (RV)± 3.8%48%36%3%[az]13%
New York Times/Siena College[199]August 6–9, 2024693 (RV)± 4.0%50%36%–14%
693 (LV)± 4.2%51%37%–11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[200][N]July 31 – August 3, 2024743 (LV)± 3.4%45%40%2%[ba]12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[201][J]July 26 – August 2, 2024411 (LV)–53%40%–7%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[202]July 22–28, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
Fox News[203]July 22–24, 20241,034 (RV)± 3.0%55%42%–1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[204][N]July 22–24, 2024851 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%4%[bb]11%
Emerson College[205][S]July 22–23, 2024850 (RV)± 3.3%48%44%–8%
SoCal Strategies (R)[206][T]July 20–21, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%50%40%–10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[207][U]July 17–18, 2024624 (RV)± 3.8%50%39%–11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[208][N]July 16–18, 2024688 (LV)–44%37%3%[bc]15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[209][V]July 11–12, 2024537 (RV)–47%44%–9%
YouGov[210][C]July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.4%50%38%1%11%
889 (LV)–51%39%1%9%
New York Times/Siena College[211]July 9–11, 2024872 (RV)± 3.7%50%39%–10%
872 (LV)± 3.8%50%42%–8%
Expedition Strategies[212][W]June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)–48%45%–7%
Remington Research Group (R)[213][M]June 29 – July 1, 2024673 (LV)± 4.0%49%48%–4%
Cygnal (R)[214]June 27–28, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%46%42%–12%
The Bullfinch Group[215][X]June 14–19, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%48%36%–16%
Emerson College[216][A]June 13–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%41%–12%
Marist College[217]June 3–6, 20241,181 (RV)± 3.6%52%46%–2%
Mainstreet Research/FAU[218]May 30–31, 20241,012 (RV)± 3.1%48%40%5%7%
923 (LV)± 3.1%49%42%3%6%
KAConsulting (R)[219][Y]May 15–19, 2024600 (RV)–47%37%4%[bd]12%
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[220][J]May 6–13, 2024730 (LV)± 3.6%49%41%–10%
New York Times/Siena College[221][B]April 28 – May 9, 20241,023 (RV)± 3.6%46%41%–13%
1,023 (LV)± 3.6%46%44%–10%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[222][K]April 24–30, 20241,398 (LV)± 3.0%48%44%–8%
Emerson College[223][A]April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%42%–12%
CBS News/YouGov[224]April 19–25, 20241,306 (LV)± 3.1%46%39%–15%
Muhlenberg College[225]April 15–25, 2024417 (RV)± 6.0%45%41%5%9%
The Bullfinch Group[226][R]March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%38%9%8%
National Public Affairs[227]March 2024759 (LV)± 3.6%32%28%–40%
Franklin & Marshall College[228]March 20–31, 2024431 (RV)± 5.7%46%39%–15%
The Bullfinch Group[229][X]March 22–26, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%47%30%8%15%
Emerson College[230]March 10–13, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%––
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[231]February 27 – March 7, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%48%42%–10%
Emerson College[232]February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%39%–13%
Chism Strategies[233]February 6–8, 2024500 (RV)± 5.0%38%37%–25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[234][Z]January 22–25, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%47%40%–12%
Franklin & Marshall College[235]January 17–28, 20241,006 (RV)± 3.6%47%35%4%14%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[236]January 15–21, 2024745 (LV)± 3.7%46%42%3%9%
Quinnipiac University[237]January 4–8, 20241,680 (RV)± 2.4%53%43%1%[aj]2%
The Bullfinch Group[238][X]December 8–12, 2023800 (RV)± 3.5%42%27%13%[be]20%
Change Research (D)[239][AA]December 3–7, 20232,532 (RV)± 3.5%44%41%0%15%
Franklin & Marshall College[240]October 11–22, 2023873 (RV)± 4.1%46%39%4%12%
Emerson College[241]October 1–4, 2023430 (RV)± 4.7%41%33%8%18%
Quinnipiac University[242]September 28 – October 2, 20231,725 (RV)± 2.4%50%44%2%[bf]4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[243]May 2–8, 2023700 (LV)± 3.7%53%41%1%5%
Cygnal (R)[244]April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%41%0%13%
Franklin & Marshall College[245]March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 6.6%42%35%–23%
Hypothetical polling

Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size[a]		Margin
of error		Bob
Casey Jr. (D)		Doug
Mastriano (R)		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College[245]March 27 – April 7, 2023643 (RV)± 3.7%47%31%22%
Cygnal (R)[244]April 12–13, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%49%39%12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania[246]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDave McCormick3,399,29548.82%+6.20%
DemocraticBob Casey Jr. (incumbent)3,384,18048.60%−7.14%
LibertarianJohn Thomas89,6531.29%+0.27%
GreenLeila Hazou66,3880.95%+0.33%
ConstitutionMarty Selker23,6210.34%N/A
Total votes6,963,137100.0%
Republicangain fromDemocratic

Results by county

[edit]
County[247]Dave McCormick
Republican		Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%
Adams38,50563.88%19,94733.09%1,8243.03%18,55630.79%60,276
Allegheny272,86138.11%425,28059.40%17,7812.48%-152,419-21.29%715,922
Armstrong26,65372.14%9,13624.73%1,1553.13%17,51747.42%36,944
Beaver53,59356.56%38,52940.66%2,6352.78%15,06415.90%94,757
Bedford22,85581.50%4,62416.49%5642.01%18,23165.01%28,043
Berks108,05853.06%89,06345.74%6,5213.20%18,9959.33%203,642
Blair44,74169.13%18,44528.50%1,5372.37%26,29640.63%64,723
Bradford22,09971.50%8,00725.90%8042.60%14,09245.59%30,910
Bucks194,20348.57%196,44449.13%9,1862.30%−2,241-0.56%399,833
Butler77,32863.93%40,97333.87%2,6662.20%36,35530.05%120,967
Cambria46,48265.47%22,88732.24%1,6352.30%23,59533.23%71,004
Cameron1,55870.37%58026.20%763.43%97844.17%2,214
Carbon22,60364.45%11,57032.99%8982.56%11,03331.46%35,071
Centre38,05447.32%40,38250.22%1,9792.46%-2,328-2.89%80,415
Chester138,27142.60% 178,765 55.07%7,5512.33%-40,494−12.65%324,587
Clarion 14,179 72.06%4,68323.80%8154.14%9,49648.26%19,677
Clearfield 29,063 72.27%10,11125.14%1,0382.58%18,95247.13%40,212
Clinton 12,250 66.40%5,72231.02%4762.58%6,52835.38%18,448
Columbia 20,617 63.63%10,96933.85%8142.51%9,64829.78%32,400
Crawford 28,234 63.10%13,37031.30%1,1102.60%14,86431.80%42,714
Cumberland 78,178 53.04%64,71343.90%4,5123.06%13,4659.14%147,403
Dauphin66,94944.95% 77,022 51.71%4,9853.34%−10,073-6.76%148,956
Delaware121,48237.21% 197,424 60.48%7,5512.31%−75,942-23.26%326,457
Elk 11,939 69.75%4,67928.33%4992.92%7,26042.42%17,117
Erie65,60347.94% 67,868 49.60%3,3712.46%−2,265-1.66%136,842
Fayette 40,804 64.82%20,75232.97%1,3892.21%20,05231.86%62,945
Forest 1,808 68.25%74127.97%1003.78%1,06740.28%2,649
Franklin 57,217 68.84%23,59128.38%2,3132.78%33,62640.46%83,121
Fulton 6,773 83.45%1,19714.75%1461.80%5,57668.70%8,116
Greene 11,643 67.91%5,07529.60%4272.49%6,56838.31%17,145
Huntingdon 16,910 74.43%5,58224.24%9864.28%11,32849.19%23,028
Indiana 27,881 66.28%13,18131.33%1,0062.39%14,70034.94%42,068
Jefferson 17,618 76.34%4,83420.95%6262.71%12,78455.39%23,078
Juniata 9,252 76.82%2,47820.58%3132.60%6,77456.25%12,043
Lackawanna51,94444.82% 61,653 53.20%2,2891.98%−9,709−8.38%115,886
Lancaster 162,105 56.22%118,58041.12%7,6682.66%43,52515.10%288,353
Lawrence 29,405 62.84%16,17634.57%1,2112.59%13,22928.27%46,792
Lebanon 46,172 63.13%24,74533.83%2,2223.04%21,42729.30%73,139
Lehigh87,14746.46% 94,875 50.58%5,5622.96%−7,728−4.12%187,584
Luzerne 87,048 56.17%64,49541.61%3,4422.22%22,55314.55%154,985
Lycoming 40,672 68.36%17,35429.17%1,4722.47%23,31839.19%59,498
McKean 13,799 70.51%5,23126.73%5412.47%8,56843.78%19,571
Mercer 36,468 62.78%20,30234.95%1,3182.27%16,16627.83%58,088
Mifflin 16,413 74.79%4,99122.74%5422.47%11,42252.05%21,946
Monroe40,88448.07% 41,712 49.04%2,4552.89%−828-0.97%85,051
Montgomery196,42237.78% 311,859 59.98%11,6872.25%−115,437−22.20%519,968
Montour 5,847 59.06%3,81338.52%2402.42%2,03420.54%9,900
Northampton 85,787 49.13%84,76248.54%4,0662.33%1,0250.59%174,615
Northumberland 28,706 66.31%13,43231.03%1,1562.66%15,27435.28%43,294
Perry 18,355 71.48%6,47025.19%8553.33%11,88546.28%25,680
Philadelphia129,09818.70% 541,567 78.45%19,6512.85%−412,469-59.75%690,316
Pike 20,869 60.30%6,47037.30%8312.40%7,96023.00%34,609
Potter 7,109 78.51%1,69518.72%2512.77%5,41459.79%9,055
Schuylkill48,55366.66%22,22430.51%2,0632.83%26,32936.15%72,840
Snyder14,21171.24%5,30926.62%4272.14%8,90244.63%19,947
Somerset30,66775.14%9,05929.20%1,0902.66%21,60852.94%40,816
Sullivan2,61270.31%1,02127.48%822.21%1,59143.83%3,715
Susquehanna15,54569.97%6,12927.59%5422.44%6,67142.38%22,216
Tioga15,77873.62%5,06623.64%5882.74%10,71249.98%21,432
Union12,74760.49%7,87237.36%4532.15%4,87523.13%21,072
Venango17,82566.93%7,90229.67%9043.39%9,92337.26%26,631
Warren13,65566.07%6,41531.04%5972.89%7,24035.03%20,667
Washington71,79859.61%45,92638.13%2,7172.56%25,87221.48%120,441
Wayne19,33165.90%9,38531.99%6192.11%9,94633.91%29,335
Westmoreland128,04062.28%45,92636.38%4,8932.34%52,03624.90%208,937
Wyoming9,91966.04%4,75031.63%3502.33%5,16935.41%15,019
York148,09859.73%91,77937.02%8,0513.25%56,31922.71%247,928
Totals3,399,29548.82%3,384,18048.60%179,6622.58%15,1150.22%6,963,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Shift by county
Trend by county
Legend
  •   Republican — >15%
  •   Republican — +12.5−15%
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5−10%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
County flips
Legend

  • Democratic

      Hold

    Republican

      Hold
      Gain from Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

McCormick won nine of 17 congressional districts, with the remaining eight going to Casey, including one that elected a Republican.[248][249][250][251]

DistrictCasey Jr.McCormickRepresentative
1st49.3%48.4%Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd67.8%29.3%Brendan Boyle
3rd86.7%10.4%Dwight Evans
4th56.8%40.8%Madeleine Dean
5th62.9%34.8%Mary Gay Scanlon
6th54.0%43.4%Chrissy Houlahan
7th47.8%49.6%Susan Wild (118th Congress)
Ryan Mackenzie (119th Congress)
8th46.6%51.1%Matt Cartwright (118th Congress)
Rob Bresnahan (119th Congress)
9th31.3%66.0%Dan Meuser
10th46.3%50.5%Scott Perry
11th38.6%58.5%Lloyd Smucker
12th59.1%38.3%Summer Lee
13th27.8%69.6%John Joyce
14th34.3%63.3%Guy Reschenthaler
15th31.2%66.1%Glenn Thompson
16th38.9%58.7%Mike Kelly
17th52.3%45.4%Chris Deluzio

Analysis

[edit]

In Pennsylvania, a statewiderecount is triggered under state law if the margin falls within 0.5% of the total vote. Preliminary results for the election reached this threshold on November 13, 2024, with McCormick at 48.9% leading Casey's 48.6%, as outstanding ballots continued to be counted across the state.Secretary of the CommonwealthAl Schmidt officially ordered the recount later that evening, with Casey declining to concede.[252] The deadline for the counties to begin their recounts is on November 20, the third Wednesday after the election according to state law, however, counties can start their recounts as early as November 18, with all counties required to submit their results to theDepartment of State by noon on November 26 as the results must be reported by the Secretary of the Commonwealth by noon on November 27.[253] Additionally, the counties must use different machines for the recount than were used on Election Day.[254]

On Monday, November 18, following a series of challenges and disputes, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed all of the state's county election officials not to count certain mail-in ballots which arrived on time yet lacked a correct handwritten date on the return envelope.[255][256]

The last instance of a statewide recount being held was for the2022 Republican primary for Pennsylvania's Class 3 Senate seat, of which McCormick was also a candidate. Conversely to his stance in the 2024 general election, he unsuccessfully sued to have undated mail-in ballots counted. After completion of the recount he would concede toMehmet Oz, with the final results expanding Oz's margin by 49 votes.[257]

McCormick benefitted from the presence of former President Donald Trump on the ballot, who carried the state over Vice President Harris by just over 120,000 votes (for a margin of roughly 1.7%) in the concurrent presidential election. Indeed, McCormick cleared 60% in most counties in the state’s less-populated interior and even 70% in many.

Unlike in Ohio and Montana, however, McCormick had to seek support beyond the Trump base as he was running in a swing state. Casey and Trump both won Bucks, Erie, and Monroe Counties. McCormick campaigned withNikki Haley in the suburbs of Pittsburgh andPhiladelphia, aiming to appeal to voters uneasy about Trump by positioning himself as a more establishment candidate. Casey aired ads in late October to highlight his votes with the Trump administration, while McCormick tied Casey to Harris, highlighting his votes with the Biden administration. However, both candidates received fewer votes than their respective parties’ presidential candidate in the concurrent2024 presidential election. Senator McCormick received about 144,000 fewer votes than President Trump, while Senator Casey received almost 39,000 fewer votes than Vice President Harris.[258][259][260]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^$4,263,800 of this total was self-funded by McCormick
  3. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^Thomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  5. ^"Some other candidate" with 2%
  6. ^abc"Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  7. ^"Another candidate" with 1%
  8. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  9. ^abThomas (L) and Hazou (G) with 1%
  10. ^abc"Another party's candidate" with 1%
  11. ^Hazou (G) with 2%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  12. ^"Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  13. ^"Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  14. ^"Refused" with 2%
  15. ^"Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 2%
  16. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^abc"Other" with 2%
  18. ^Thomas (L) with 2%; Hazou (G) and Selker (C) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  19. ^Thomas with 2%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  20. ^"Someone else" with 2%
  21. ^"Refuse" with 2%
  22. ^"Other" (Thomas (L), Hazou (G) & Selker (C)) with 5%
  23. ^"Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  25. ^"Other" with 1%
  26. ^"Other" with 1%
  27. ^abHazou (G) and Thomas (L) with 1%; "Another candidate" with 1%
  28. ^"Some other candidate" with 1%
  29. ^"Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  30. ^Poll sponsored by Sentinel Action Fund
  31. ^"Other" with 5%
  32. ^"None of the Above" with 9%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ^Thomas (L) with 3%, Hazou (G) with 2%, and Selker (C) with 1%
  34. ^"Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  35. ^"Someone else" with 1%; "Would not vote" with 2%
  36. ^abcd"Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  37. ^"Other" with 1%
  38. ^Thomas (L), "Wouldn't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  39. ^"Another candidate" and "Would not vote for senate" each with 1%; "Prefer not to say" with <1%
  40. ^"Refused" with 1%
  41. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 4%; Thomas (L), Hazou (G), and "Would not vote" each with 1%
  42. ^"No opinion/Skipped" with 3%; "Would not vote" each with 2%
  43. ^"Other" with 3%
  44. ^Thomas (L) with 1%; Selker (C) with 1%; Hazou (G) with <1%
  45. ^ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Thomas (L) with 1%
  46. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  47. ^"Other" with 4%; "Neither" with 3%
  48. ^Thomas (L) with 1%; Hazou (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%; "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 1%
  49. ^Thomas (L) with 3%; Hazou (G) with 2%; Messina (AS) and Selker (C) with 1%
  50. ^Leila Hazou (G) with 1%, John Thomas (L), "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)", and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  51. ^"Refused" with 1%
  52. ^"Some other candidate" with 3%
  53. ^John Thomas (L) and "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%; Leila Hazou (G) and Marty Selker (C) with 0%
  54. ^John Thomas (L) with 2%; Leila Hazou (G) with 1%; Marty Selker (C) with 0%; "Other (Another Third Party/Write-In)" with 1%
  55. ^Leila Hazou (G), John Thomas (L), and Marty Selker (C) with 1%
  56. ^"Would not vote" with 3%; "Someone else" with 1%
  57. ^"None of the above" with 8%; "Other" with 5%
  58. ^"Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^abcdefPoll sponsored byThe Hill
  2. ^abcdPoll sponsored byThe Philadelphia Inquirer
  3. ^abcPoll conducted forThe Times,Stanford University,Arizona State University, andYale University
  4. ^abPoll sponsored byThe Morning Call
  5. ^abPoll sponsored byUSA Today
  6. ^abPoll sponsored by American Greatness
  7. ^abPoll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
  8. ^Poll sponsored byRose Institute of State and Local Government
  9. ^Poll sponsored by the Commonwealth Foundation
  10. ^abcPoll sponsored byThe Cook Political Report
  11. ^abPoll commissioned byAARP
  12. ^Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  13. ^abPoll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republicans.
  14. ^abcdefgPoll sponsored byThe Daily Telegraph
  15. ^Poll sponsored bySpotlight PA
  16. ^Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, the latter of which supports the Republican Party.
  17. ^Poll sponsored by the Pinpoint Policy Institute
  18. ^abPoll sponsored by the Independent Center
  19. ^Poll sponsored byThe Hill andNexstar
  20. ^Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
  21. ^Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, a group that supports Democrats.
  22. ^Poll sponsored by the Progress Action Fund, which is a sponsor of the Democratic Party.
  23. ^Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  24. ^abcPoll sponsored by theCommonwealth Foundation, a conservative think tank
  25. ^Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
  26. ^Poll sponsored by McCormick's campaign
  27. ^Poll sponsored by Future Majority, a partisan sponsor for the Democratic Party.

References

[edit]
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  244. ^abEverett, Burgess; Otterbein, Holly (May 15, 2023)."Dems' great hope to hold the Senate: GOP primary implosions".Politico.
  245. ^abYost, Berwood (April 13, 2023)."Franklin & Marshall Poll Release April 2023".Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
  246. ^"2024 Presidential Election (Official Returns)".Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. November 5, 2024. RetrievedDecember 5, 2024.
  247. ^"2024 Senate Election (Official Returns)".Commonwealth of Pennsylvania by county. November 5, 2024. RetrievedDecember 5, 2024.
  248. ^"Pennsylvania's 2nd district swung rightward in 2016, 2020, and 2024".
  249. ^"Pennsylvania Democrat Lamont McClure, the Northampton County executive, filed to seek state's swingy 7th District held by first-term Rep".
  250. ^"PA08: @CartwrightPA went down with the ship in 2024, earning 12,306 more votes than Harris".
  251. ^"PA-17 is mostly suburban, highly educated, and rapidly trending left relative to the state".
  252. ^Snyder, Dan (November 13, 2024)."Recount triggered in Pennsylvania Senate race as McCormick heads to D.C., Casey declines to concede".CBS News. RetrievedNovember 13, 2024.
  253. ^Bernard, Katie; Lai, Jonathan (November 14, 2024)."Pennsylvania's Senate race is going to a recount. How will it work?".The Philadelphia Inquirer. RetrievedNovember 14, 2024.
  254. ^"Recount starts in Pennsylvania US Senate race between Casey, McCormick".WGAL. RetrievedNovember 18, 2024.
  255. ^Lo Wang, Hansi (November 18, 2024)."Pennsylvania's high court sides with Republicans on misdated mail ballots".NPR. RetrievedNovember 19, 2024.
  256. ^LEVY, MARC (November 18, 2024)."Pennsylvania's high court orders counties not to count disputed ballots in US Senate race".AP. RetrievedNovember 19, 2024.
  257. ^Walker, Carter (June 13, 2024)."Elections 101: Everything you need to know about election recounts in Pennsylvania".Spotlight PA. RetrievedNovember 14, 2024.
  258. ^"David McCormick campaigns with Nikki Haley in Senate-race push for moderate voters in Western Pa".90.5 WESA. October 31, 2024. RetrievedDecember 2, 2024.
  259. ^Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024)."Trump, messaging, and money: How Dave McCormick unseated Bob Casey in Pennsylvania's Senate race".www.inquirer.com. RetrievedDecember 2, 2024.
  260. ^Walsh, Sean Collins (November 9, 2024)."Haley campaigns for McCormick in Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs".www.penncapital-star.com. RetrievedDecember 2, 2024.

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