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2020 United States presidential election in Texas

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2020 United States presidential election.
2020 United States presidential election in Texas

← 2016
November 3, 2020
2024 →
Turnout66.73% (of registered voters)[1]Increase
52.39% (ofvoting age population)[2]
 
NomineeDonald TrumpJoe Biden
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Home stateFloridaDelaware
Running mateMike PenceKamala Harris
Electoral vote380
Popular vote5,890,3475,259,126
Percentage52.06%46.48%

County results
Congressional district results

Trump

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

Biden

  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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The2020 United States presidential election in Texas was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus theDistrict of Columbia participated.[3]Texas voters chose electors to represent them in theElectoral College via a popular vote, pitting theRepublican Party's nominee, incumbent PresidentDonald Trump, and running mate,Vice PresidentMike Pence, against theDemocratic Party's nominee, former Vice PresidentJoe Biden, and his running mate, California SenatorKamala Harris. The state of Texas had 38 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[4]

Although it was considered a vulnerable state for Trump by some pollsters and experts and a potential upset victory for Biden due to its recent demographic trends, Texas was again won by Trump with 52.1% of the vote, roughly the same percentage he carried it with in2016.

Despite not winning the state, Biden improved onHillary Clinton's 2016 vote share by 3.24 points, with his 46.48% vote share the largest percentage in the state by a Democratic presidential candidate sinceJimmy Carter carried the state in1976. Trump's 5.58% margin of victory was the narrowest for a Republican since1996, whenSouthernerBill Clinton was the Democratic nominee.

Texas was the third-narrowest of Trump's state victories, behind onlyFlorida andNorth Carolina, and the ninth-closest state overall. However, Trump made many of his largest gains in the country inSouth Texas in counties along theMexico–United States border, flipping eight counties in the region. In2024 Trump outright won a majority ofHispanics in Texas.

Voter turnout in the state increased to its highest level since1992, when two Texans,George H. W. Bush andRoss Perot, were on the ballot, and the last time Texas was considered to be a battleground state.[5]

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Texas Republican presidential primary

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020.Donald Trump andBill Weld were the only declared Republican candidates, as formerSouth Carolina Governor and U.S. RepresentativeMark Sanford and U.S. RepresentativeJoe Walsh had dropped out.Texas GovernorGreg Abbott declined to run against Trump, as did2016 Republican primary candidate and current senatorTed Cruz.[6][7] The primary was won overwhelmingly by Trump with over 94% of the vote.

This section is an excerpt from2020 Texas Republican presidential primary § TXresults.[edit]
2020 Texas Republican Party presidential primary[8]
CandidatePopular voteDelegates
CountPercentage
Donald Trump (incumbent)1,898,66494.13%117
Uncommitted71,8033.56%0
Bill Weld15,7390.78%0
Joe Walsh15,8240.78%0
Rocky De La Fuente7,5630.38%0
Bob Ely3,5820.37%0
Matthew Matern3,5250.18%0
Zoltan Istvan1,4470.07%0
Total:2,017,167100%155

Democratic primary

[edit]
Further information:2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020.Elizabeth Warren,Bernie Sanders,Michael Bloomberg andJoe Biden were among the major declared candidates.[9][10][11] The primary was won by Biden, with Sanders coming second.

This section is an excerpt from2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary § TXresults.[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Bloomberg—<30%
  Bloomberg—30–40%
  Bloomberg—50–60%
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
  Warren—<30%
  Tie
2020 Texas Democratic presidential primary[12]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[13]
Joe Biden725,56234.64113
Bernie Sanders626,33929.9199
Michael Bloomberg300,60814.3511
Elizabeth Warren239,23711.425
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[a]82,6713.95
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[a]43,2912.07
Julian Castro(withdrawn)16,6880.80
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[a]13,9290.67
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)10,3240.49
Tulsi Gabbard8,6880.41
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)6,6740.32
Cory Booker(withdrawn)4,9410.24
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)3,9180.19
John Delaney(withdrawn)3,2800.16
Deval Patrick(withdrawn)1,3040.06
Other candidates6,9740.33
Total2,094,428100%228

General election

[edit]

Final predictions

[edit]
SourceRanking
The Cook Political Report[14]Tossup
Inside Elections[15]Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16]Lean R
Politico[17]Lean R
RCP[18]Tossup
Niskanen[19]Tossup
CNN[20]Lean R
The Economist[21]Lean R
CBS News[22]Lean R
270towin[23]Lean R
ABC News[24]Tossup
NPR[25]Tossup
NBC News[26]Tossup
538[27]Lean R

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

[edit]
%support01020304050602/14/20194/28/20208/25/202010/22/2020TrumpBidenJorgensenHawkinsOther/UndecidedOpinion polling for the 2020 United States p...
Viewsource data.


Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win[28]Oct 29, 2020 – November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.5%48.8%3.7%Trump +1.3
Real Clear Politics[29]October 20–31, 2020November 3, 202046.5%47.8%5.7%Trump +1.3
FiveThirtyEight[30]until November 2, 2020November 3, 202047.4%48.6%4.0%Trump +1.1
Average47.1%48.4%4.5%Trump +1.2

Polls

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Oct 20 – Nov 2, 20209,226 (LV)± 1.5%51%[d]47%
Swayable[32]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 20201,151 (LV)± 3.9%51%47%1%0%
Data For Progress[33]Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020926 (LV)± 3.2%48%49%1%1%0%[e]
AtlasIntel[34]Oct 30–31, 2020686 (LV)± 4%50%47%3%
Emerson College[35]Oct 29–31, 2020763 (LV)± 3.5%49%[f]48%--2%[g]
Morning Consult[36]Oct 22–31, 20203,267 (LV)± 2%48%48%
Public Policy Polling[37]Oct 28–29, 2020775 (V)48%50%2%
Gravis Marketing[38]Oct 27–28, 2020670 (LV)± 3.8%50%45%5%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[39]Oct 27–28, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%[h]46%2%[g]2%
48%[i]48%2%[g]2%
52%[j]44%2%[g]2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Oct 1–28, 202015,145 (LV)51%47%
Swayable[40]Oct 23–26, 2020552 (LV)± 5.7%49%48%3%1%
YouGov/UMass Amherst[41]Oct 20–26, 2020873 (LV)± 4.2%48%47%2%1%0%[k]1%
Data for Progress (D)[42]Oct 22–25, 20201,018 (LV)± 3.1%48%49%1%0%2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[43]Oct 20–25, 2020802 (LV)± 3.8%47%43%3%0%2%[l]5%[m]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions
/North Star Opinion Research[44]
Oct 17–25, 2020758 (RV)± 3.56%49%46%3%[n]2%
Citizen Data[45]Oct 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%45%49%1%0%1%4%
YouGov/University of Houston[46]Oct 13–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3.1%50%45%2%0%3%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[47]Oct 13–20, 2020925 (LV)± 3.2%47%[f]49%3%1%1%
Morning Consult[36]Oct 11–20, 20203,347 (LV)± 1.7%47%48%
Quinnipiac University[48]Oct 16–19, 20201,145 (LV)± 2.9%47%47%1%[o]5%
Data for Progress (D)[49]Oct 15–18, 2020933 (LV)± 3.2%46%[f]47%2%1%5%
Morning Consult[50][1]Oct 2–11, 20203,455 (LV)± 1.7%49%47%3%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[51][A]Oct 7–8, 2020721 (LV)± 3.6%48%48%1%
YouGov/CCES[52]Sep 29 – Oct 7, 20202,947 (LV)49%47%
Morning Consult[53]Sep 28 – Oct 7, 2020~2,700 (LV)± 2%49%46%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/Crosswind PR[54]Oct 5–6, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%51%44%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[55]Oct 3–6, 2020895 (LV)± 3.4%48%48%2%[g]1%
Data For Progress (D)[56]Sep 30 – Oct 5, 20201,949 (LV)± 2.2%45%47%2%1%5%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[57]Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020908 (LV)± 3.25%50%45%2%2%1%[o]
EMC Research/Blue Texas PAC[58][B]Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020848 (LV)49%49%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Sep 1–30, 202013,395 (LV)52%46%2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[59][C]Sep 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%49%47%
Morning Consult[53]Sep 18–27, 2020~2,700 (LV)± 2%48%47%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[60][2]Archived October 8, 2020, at theWayback Machine[D]Sep 25–26, 2020612 (LV)± 3.6%48%48%4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell[61]Sep 18–25, 2020882 (LV)± 4.3%49%[p]46%2%1%1%[q]1%
50%[r]46%2%[s]2%
Data For Progress[62][E]Sep 18–22, 2020726 (LV)± 3.6%47%45%9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[63]Sep 16–22, 2020653 (LV)± 4.3%46%43%1%1%0%[t]9%[m]
Quinnipiac University[64]Sep 17–21, 20201,078 (LV)± 3%50%45%No voters4%
YouGov/CBS[65]Sep 15–18, 20201,129 (LV)± 3.5%48%46%2%[u]4%
Morning Consult[53]Sep 8–17, 2020~2,700 (LV)± 2%47%47%
Morning Consult[66]Aug 29 – Sep 7, 20202,829 (LV)± 2%46%[v]46%
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[67][F]Sep 1–2, 2020743 (V)48%47%5%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[68]Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2020901 (LV)± 3.26%49%[f]47%1%1%1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Aug 1–31, 202012,607 (LV)52%46%2%
Morning Consult[69]Aug 21–30, 20202,632 (LV)± 2%48%[v]47%
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[70][G]Aug 20–25, 2020906 (LV)± 3%44%48%0%0%[w]5%
Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance[71]Aug 20–25, 20202,295 (LV)± 2.0%45%48%8%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[72][3][H]Aug 21–22, 2020764 (RV)± 3.6%47%48%5%
Morning Consult[53]Aug 13–22, 2020~2,700 (LV)± 2%48%47%
Morning Consult[69]Aug 7–16, 20202,559 (LV)± 2%47%[x]46%
Global Strategy Group/Chrysta for Texas[73][I]Aug 11–13, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%45%47%
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute[74]Aug 4–13, 2020846 (RV)48%41%1%1%10.2%
– (LV)[J]50%44%1%0%5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[75]Aug 1–5, 20201,015 (LV)± 3.0%49%43%2%2%[y]3%
Morning Consult[53]Aug 3–12, 2020~2,700 (LV)± 2.0%47%46%
Morning Consult[76]Jul 24 – Aug 2, 20202,576 (LV)± 2.0%46%[v]47%2%[g]5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Jul 1–31, 202013,721 (LV)52%46%2%
Morning Consult[77]Jul 17–26, 20202,685 (LV)± 1.9%45%[x]47%
Morning Consult[77][4]Jul 16–25, 2020≈2,700 (LV)[z]± 2.0%45%47%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[78][K]Jul 16–20, 2020750 (LV)± 3.5%49%45%6%
Quinnipiac University[79]Jul 16–20, 2020880 (RV)± 3.3%44%45%7%[aa]4%
Morning Consult[77]Jul 6–15, 2020– (LV)[z]46%46%
YouGov/CBS[80]Jul 7–10, 20201,185 (LV)± 3.6%46%45%4%[ab]6%
Gravis Marketing/OANN[81]Jul 7, 2020591 (LV)± 4.3%46%44%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[82]Jun 29 – Jul 7, 20201,677 (LV)± 2.4%43%48%4%5%
Morning Consult[77]Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020– (LV)[z]46%45%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[31]Jun 8–30, 20206,669 (LV)51%46%2%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[83]Jun 19–29, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.89%48%44%8%
Public Policy Polling[84][5]Jun 24–25, 2020729 (RV)± 3.6%46%48%5%
Morning Consult[77]Jun 16–25, 2020– (LV)[z]47%44%
Fox News[85]Jun 20–23, 20201,001 (RV)± 3%44%45%5%[ac]5%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas[86][6][L]Jun 18–19, 2020907 (V)± 3%48%46%6%
Morning Consult[77]Jun 6–15, 2020– (LV)[z]48%45%
Morning Consult[77]May 27 – Jun 5, 2020– (LV)[z]48%43%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[87][M]Jun 2–3, 2020683 (V)48%48%4%
Quinnipiac[88]May 28 – Jun 1, 20201,166 (RV)± 2.9%44%43%6%[ad]7%
Morning Consult[77]May 17–26, 20202,551 (LV)50%[v]43%
Morning Consult[77]May 16–25, 2020– (LV)[z]50%42%
Morning Consult[77]May 6–15, 2020– (LV)[z]49%43%
Emerson College[89]May 8–10, 2020800 (RV)± 3.4%52%[ae]48%
Public Policy Polling[90]Apr 27–28, 20201,032 (V)46%47%7%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[91]Apr 18–27, 20201,183 (RV)± 2.85%43%43%5%9%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[92]Apr 10–19, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.8%49%44%7%
AtlasIntel[93]Feb 24 – Mar 2, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%47%43%11%
NBC News/Marist College[94]Feb 23–27, 20202,409 (RV)± 2.5%49%45%1%5%
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%48%3%[af]2%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%43%46%11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%45%44%11%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%47%44%10%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[99]Jan 21–30, 2020910 (LV)± 3.24%46%44%10%[ag]
Data For Progress[100][N]Jan 16–21, 20201,486 (LV)54%40%3%[ah]3%
Texas Lyceum[101]Jan 10–19, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%51%46%3%
CNN/SSRS[102]Dec 4–9, 20191,003 (RV)48%47%2%[ai]3%
Beacon Research (R)[103]Nov 9–21, 20191,601 (RV)± 3.0%45%44%
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%45%39%16%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[105]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%9%[aj]6%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%38%40%13%9%
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)43%47%10%
Climate Nexus[108]Aug 20–25, 20191,660 (RV)± 2.4%43%43%9%
University of Texas at Tyler[109]Aug 1–4, 20191,261 (RV)± 2.8%37%41%14%8%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%49%51%
University of Texas at Tyler[111]Jul 24–27, 20191,414 (RV)± 2.6%37%37%12%14%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%44%48%1%4%
WPA Intelligence[113]Apr 27–30, 2019200 (LV)± 6.9%49%42%7%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%50%[ae]51%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%47%46%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][O]Feb 13–14, 2019743 (RV)± 3.6%49%46%5%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[93]Feb 24 – Mar 2, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%49%43%9%
NBC News/Marist College[94]Feb 23–27, 20202,409 (RV)± 2.5%49%45%1%5%
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%48%46%3%[ak]3%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%45%45%10%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%45%44%11%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%47%45%7%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[117]Jan 21–30, 2020910 (LV)± 3.24%47%42%12%[al]
Data for Progress[118][N]Jan 16–21, 20201,486 (LV)55%40%3%[ah]2%
Texas Lyceum[101]Jan 10–19, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%50%47%3%
CNN/SSRS[102]Dec 4–9, 20191,003 (RV)50%43%4%[am]3%
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%44%40%16%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[119]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%40%9%[aj]5%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%40%38%14%8%
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)42%48%10%
Climate Nexus[108]Aug 20–25, 20191,660 (RV)± 2.4%45%41%7%
University of Texas at Tyler[109]Aug 1–4, 20191,261 (RV)± 2.8%38%42%13%7%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%49%51%
University of Texas at Tyler[111]Jul 24–27, 20191,414 (RV)± 2.6%37%39%11%12%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%47%44%1%4%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%51%[ae]49%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%47%45%2%4%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[93]Feb 24 – Mar 2, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%49%40%12%
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%47%2%[ai]4%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%48%41%11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%47%37%16%-
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%47%44%9%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[120]Jan 21–30, 2020907 (LV)± 3.24%48%41%12%[al]
Data for Progress[118][N]Jan 16–21, 20201,486 (LV)56%38%3%[ah]3%
Texas Lyceum[101]Jan 10–19, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%50%43%7%
CNN/SSRS[102]Dec 4–9, 20191,003 (RV)51%44%3%[af]2%
Beacon Research (R)[103]Nov 9–21, 20191,601 (RV)± 3.0%46%41%
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%46%35%20%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[119]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%10%[an]6%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%40%37%15%9%
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)42%44%14%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%46%45%1%5%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%53%47%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%48%41%2%6%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel[93]Feb 24 – Mar 2, 20201,100 (RV)± 3.0%48%36%17%
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%46%3%[ak]4%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%43%44%13%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%45%44%10%-
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%46%41%13%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[121]Jan 21–30, 2020906 (LV)± 3.24%47%44%9%[ao]

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
OtherUndecided
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%2%[ai]5%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%45%38%17%-
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%46%41%13%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[122]Jan 21–30, 2020909 (LV)± 3.24%46%38%16%[ap]

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
OtherUndecided
CNN/SSRS[95]Feb 22–26, 20201,003 (RV)± 3.4%47%46%2%[ai]4%
Univision[96]Feb 21–26, 20201,004 (RV)± 3.1%46%40%15%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[97]Feb 17–26, 20201,221 (RV)± 2.8%45%41%15%-
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[123]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%47%42%11%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[124]Jan 21–30, 2020905 (LV)± 3.24%47%37%15%[aq]
Data for Progress[118][N]Jan 16–21, 20201,486 (LV)56%36%4%[ar]4%
Texas Lyceum[101]Jan 10–19, 2020520 (LV)± 4.3%51%43%6%
CNN/SSRS[102]Dec 4–9, 20191,003 (RV)50%43%2%[ai]6%
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%45%33%-22%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%39%30%21%10%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%46%44%1%6%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%54%46%

Donald Trump vs. Tom Steyer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Tom
Steyer (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[125]Jan 21–30, 2020909 (LV)± 3.24%47%36%17%[as]

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Andrew
Yang (D)
OtherUndecided
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[98]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%45%43%12%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
OtherUndecided
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)41%43%16%

with Donald Trump and Julian Castro

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Julian
Castro (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%45%34%21%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[126]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%33%14%[at]7%
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)41%44%16%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%53%47%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%46%43%1%6%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%46%41%2%8%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Texas at Tyler[104]Nov 5–14, 20191,093 (RV)± 3.0%46%33%-21%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%39%32%19%10%
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)44%45%11%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%54%46%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%47%43%1%6%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%54%46%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%48%41%2%5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[116][O]Feb 13–14, 2019743 (RV)± 3.6%49%40%11%

with Donald Trump and Beto O'Rourke

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
OtherUndecided
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[105]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.8%47%41%7%[au]5%
University of Texas at Tyler[106]Sep 13–15, 20191,199 (RV)± 2.8%40%42%11%8%
Emerson[110]Aug 1–3, 20191,033 (RV)± 3.0%52%48%
Quinnipiac University[112]May 29 – Jun 4, 20191,159 (RV)± 3.4%48%45%1%3%
Emerson College[114]Apr 25–28, 2019799 (RV)± 3.4%50%50%
Quinnipiac University[115]Feb 20–25, 20191,222 (RV)± 3.4%47%46%1%4%
Atlantic Media & Research (R)[127][P]Jan 5–11, 2019504 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Mark Cuban

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Mark
Cuban (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[128]Dec 2017– (V)[z]44%47%

with Donald Trump and a Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Univision[107]Aug 31 – Sep 6, 20191,004 (RV)42%47%11%

with Donald Trump and a generic opponent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[129][7]Apr 10–19, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.8%49%50%[av]7%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[130]Jan 31 – Feb 9, 20201,200 (RV)± 2.83%48%52%[av]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[131]Oct 18–27, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.83%48%52%[av]
Quinnipiac[132]Sep 4–9, 20191,410 (RV)± 3.1%35%48%[aw]17%[ax]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[133]May 31–Jun 9, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.83%50%50%[av]
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[134]Feb 15–24, 20191,200 (RV)± 2.83%49%51%[av]

Voting access

[edit]

Matters of election administration and ease of voting during an ongoing pandemic were heavily litigated in Texas in 2020. Harris County, the most populous one in Texas, spearheaded a number of innovative approaches and was the focal point of several legal challenges.

For the 2020 elections, Harris County Commissioners approved a budget of $33 million, higher than the $4 million budget for the2016 United States presidential election.Chris Hollins, the interim Harris County Clerk and Texas Democratic Party finance vice chairperson, created a 23-point voting access expansion program, which included promotion of voting by mail, expansion of early voting accessibility, and drive-through voting, an innovation to facilitate voting while at the same time mitigating infection risks during the COVID-19 pandemic.[135] On October 29 several voting locations in Harris County were available for 24 hours to accommodate voters whose work shifts or other responsibilities overlapped with regular voting hours.[136]

Local Republican activists and officials challenged the voter-friendly measures in multiple legal actions, with mixed success. Several lawsuits complained about early voting and about Harris County providing multiple drop-off locations for absentee ballots. Responding to pressure from within his own party, Governor Abbott then restricted the number of drop-offs to a single one per county regardless of population and size, forcing Harris County to close eleven sites at county clerk branch offices called annexes.[137]

When a legal action challenging drive-through voting was dismissed,[135] the Republican Party in Texas sought relief in theTexas Supreme Court (SCOTX), which denied the petition because the case had not been brought promptly.[138] The first lawsuit was filed on October 15 even though Harris County had obtained prior clearance from the Office of theTexas Secretary of State (which is led by a Republican appointed by Republican Governor Abbott) and had tested drive-in voting in the primary runoff elections in July without complaint.[139][140] SCOTX denied the petition and drive-thru voting continued.[141] On October 29 another action was filed seeking to invalidate drive-thru ballots based on the contention that this was a form of curbside voting that the Texas Election Code authorized only for voters with disabilities.[142] In an order issued on Sunday, November 1, the Texas Supreme Court denied the petition challenging the legality of drive-through voting, but did not resolve the legal argument one way or the other.[143][144] The next day, U.S. District JudgeAndrew Hanen heard an almost identical case by the same group of plaintiff, which included Republican candidates, on an emergency basis.Slate described the judge as "one of the most notoriously partisan conservatives in the federal judiciary."[140] Hanen ruled against the plaintiffs, dismissing their action for lack of standing, with the result that drive-in voting remained in effect. The Plaintiffs, which includedSteve Toth,[145] immediately sought emergency relief in the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, but were unsuccessful.[146] Hollins nevertheless cancelled drive-thru voting in tent structures on the eve of Election Day.[147] He reversed himself out of concern that ballots cast there might be declared invalid, should the Fifth Circuit disagree with Judge Hanen on the standing issue and agree with Judge Hanen that tents were not permissible polling places on Election Day.[148]

Some counties also set up an online system that allowed voters to check for wait times at early voting centers and make their voting plans accordingly.[149]

On October 5, Texas GovernorGreg Abbott issued a proclamation under the Texas Disaster Act limiting each county to a single drop-off location for mail ballots.[150] Federal judgeRobert Pitman blocked Abbott's order on October 9.[151] The next day, Texas Attorney GeneralKen Paxton appealed to theFifth Circuit Court of Appeals for an emergency stay of Pitman's ruling, which a three-judge motion panel temporarily granted on an interim basis, pending consideration of the appeal on the merits.[152] A Texas state judge also blocked Abbott's order on October 15, and a state appeals court upheld that decision on October 23. Paxton then sought emergency relief from the Texas Supreme Court, which backed the Governor and lifted the temporary injunction in an October 27 decision with no dissent.[153][154][155]

Turnout

[edit]

Voter registration in Texas ended on October 5, and the Secretary of State reported a registration total of 16,955,519 voters, an increase of 1,854,432 since the 2016 elections, and 1.2 million of which had occurred after the 2018 midterm elections.

Early voting began on October 13. Over one million ballots were received on that day,[156] and by October 15 fewer than two million ballots were counted.[157] The following day the count was 2.6 million, which meant 15.51% of the state's registered voters had already voted.[158]

For the whole early voting period, votes in the age 18-29 range were higher than the total of that age group of 2016, with 1.3 million votes.[159]

On October 13, Dallas County recorded 59,905 ballots and Tarrant County recorded 42,428 ballots, with the former setting a record for that county and the latter below the 2016 count on the first day of early voting.[160]

On October 13, Harris County had an unofficial tally of 128,186 ballots received, the highest ever first day early voting count and over 5% of the county's registered voters.[161] By the second day, the count was 287,931, 11% of the county's registered voters.[162] On the third day, over 100,000 ballots were counted, and in those three days 387,000 ballots were counted, with 44,000 of them issued through the mail.[163] On the fourth day, a similar number of ballots were cast, which meant the number of ballots cast total was about 500,000.[164] On October 23, there were 1 million ballots cast from Harris County.[165]

On October 13, Travis County received 35,873 ballots,[166] while it received 38,119 the following day,[167] and by 3 P.M. on Thursday over 26,000.[168] When voting closed on Thursday the percentage of Travis County voters who had already voted was 16.44%. On Friday 41,328 additional votes were counted.[158] Williamson County by the third day had a 64,891 votes out of 376,931 people registered to vote, which meant its turnout was already 17.25%.[169]

On October 13, Bexar County recorded 78,000 votes, with over 45,000 by mail and the remainder in person.[156]

On October 13, El Paso County recorded fewer than 34,000 votes.[156]

By October 19, Texas voters cast 50% of the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election in Texas. By October 22, 65.5% of 2016 votes were cast (or 34.65% of registered voters). By October 25, over 80% of 2016 votes were cast (or 43% of registered voters),[170] and by October 29, 50% of registered voters had cast ballots by early in-person and absentee ballot. By October 30, statewide voter turnout, as well as turnout in Harris County, had already surpassed the total of 2016.[171]

Results

[edit]
State Senate district results
2020 United States presidential election in Texas[172]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDonald Trump
Mike Pence
5,890,34752.06%−0.17%
DemocraticJoe Biden
Kamala Harris
5,259,12646.48%+3.24%
LibertarianJo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
126,2431.12%−2.04%
GreenHowie Hawkins
Angela Walker
33,3960.30%−0.50%
Write-in5,9440.04%-0.53%
Total votes11,315,056100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

By county

[edit]
CountyDonald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal[173]
#%#%#%#%
Anderson15,11078.59%3,95520.57%1620.84%11,15558.02%19,227
Andrews4,94384.31%85014.50%701.19%4,09369.81%5,863
Angelina25,07672.40%9,14326.40%4161.20%15,93346.00%34,635
Aransas9,23975.17%2,91623.73%1351.10%6,32351.44%12,290
Archer4,30089.66%4469.30%501.04%3,85480.36%4,796
Armstrong1,03593.08%756.74%20.18%96086.34%1,112
Atascosa12,03966.37%5,87632.40%2231.23%6,16333.97%18,138
Austin11,44778.48%2,95120.23%1881.29%8,49658.25%14,586
Bailey1,43477.10%40921.99%170.91%1,02555.11%1,860
Bandera10,05779.03%2,50519.68%1641.29%7,55259.35%12,726
Bastrop20,51655.81%15,47442.09%7722.10%5,04213.72%36,762
Baylor1,49487.78%18310.75%251.47%1,31177.03%1,702
Bee6,00663.72%3,28834.88%1321.40%2,71828.84%9,426
Bell67,89353.17%57,01444.65%2,7832.18%10,8798.52%127,690
Bexar308,61840.05%448,45258.20%13,5011.75%-139,834-18.15%770,571
Blanco5,44372.97%1,91125.62%1051.41%3,53247.35%7,459
Borden39795.43%163.85%30.72%38191.58%416
Bosque7,46981.84%1,56117.10%961.06%5,90864.74%9,126
Bowie27,11670.87%10,74728.09%3981.04%16,36942.78%38,261
Brazoria90,43358.35%62,22840.15%2,3231.50%28,20518.20%154,984
Brazos47,53055.71%35,34941.43%2,4342.86%12,18114.28%85,313
Brewster2,46151.04%2,25846.83%1032.13%2034.21%4,822
Briscoe63988.14%7810.76%81.10%56177.38%725
Brooks99840.18%1,47059.18%160.64%-472-19.00%2,484
Brown13,69885.78%2,10713.19%1641.03%11,59172.59%15,969
Burleson6,74378.33%1,78820.77%780.90%4,95557.56%8,609
Burnet18,76775.93%5,63922.81%3111.26%13,12853.12%24,717
Caldwell8,03153.64%6,67244.56%2701.80%1,3599.08%14,973
Calhoun5,64171.80%2,14827.34%670.86%3,49344.46%7,856
Callahan6,01287.92%73410.73%921.35%5,27877.19%6,838
Cameron49,03242.89%64,06356.04%1,2311.07%-15,031-13.15%114,326
Camp3,62671.66%1,39427.55%400.79%2,23244.11%5,060
Carson2,77989.01%2979.51%461.48%2,48279.50%3,122
Cass11,03379.22%2,79520.07%990.71%8,23859.15%13,927
Castro1,60276.91%46622.37%150.72%1,13654.54%2,083
Chambers17,35380.15%3,99718.46%3021.39%13,35661.69%21,652
Cherokee15,10177.41%4,21021.58%1971.01%10,89155.83%19,508
Childress1,94385.26%31013.60%261.14%1,63371.66%2,279
Clay5,06988.25%61410.69%611.06%4,45577.56%5,744
Cochran80980.90%17717.70%141.40%63263.20%1,000
Coke1,58689.15%17810.01%150.84%1,40879.14%1,779
Coleman3,64188.18%45110.92%370.90%3,19077.26%4,129
Collin252,31851.26%230,94546.92%8,9531.82%21,3734.34%492,216
Collingsworth1,04886.04%15512.73%151.23%89373.31%1,218
Colorado7,47274.91%2,42024.26%830.83%5,05250.65%9,975
Comal62,74070.58%24,82627.93%1,3261.49%37,91442.65%88,892
Comanche5,17785.06%85314.02%560.92%4,32471.04%6,086
Concho1,05883.44%19715.54%131.02%86167.90%1,268
Cooke15,59681.98%3,21016.87%2191.15%12,38665.11%19,025
Coryell15,43865.71%7,56532.20%4902.09%7,87333.51%23,493
Cottle54081.57%11317.07%91.36%42764.50%662
Crane1,24782.97%24116.03%151.00%1,00666.94%1,503
Crockett1,22077.51%34421.86%100.63%87655.65%1,574
Crosby1,39671.48%52726.98%301.54%86944.50%1,953
Culberson41548.03%43850.69%111.28%-23-2.66%864
Dallam1,38986.33%19712.24%231.43%1,19274.09%1,609
Dallas307,07633.29%598,57664.89%16,8611.82%-291,500-31.60%922,513
Dawson2,95177.88%80821.32%300.80%2,14356.56%3,789
Deaf Smith3,29471.45%1,26427.42%521.13%2,03064.03%4,610
Delta2,16283.41%40315.55%271.04%1,75967.86%2,592
Denton222,48053.23%188,69545.15%6,7891.62%33,7858.08%417,964
DeWitt6,56780.89%1,49418.40%570.71%5,07362.49%8,118
Dickens85386.34%13013.16%50.50%72373.18%988
Dimmit1,38437.75%2,26461.76%180.49%-880-24.01%3,666
Donley1,43887.26%19812.01%120.73%1,24075.25%1,648
Duval2,44348.35%2,57550.96%350.69%-132-2.61%5,053
Eastland7,23787.27%98311.85%730.88%6,25475.42%8,293
Ector32,69773.33%11,36725.49%5271.18%21,33047.84%44,591
Edwards89383.77%16815.76%50.47%72568.01%1,066
El Paso84,33131.56%178,12666.66%4,7581.78%-93,795-35.10%267,215
Ellis56,71766.19%27,56532.17%1,4061.64%29,15234.02%85,688
Erath13,68481.08%2,91617.28%2771.64%10,76863.80%16,877
Falls4,17768.11%1,89930.96%570.93%2,27837.15%6,133
Fannin12,17181.10%2,65517.69%1811.21%9,51663.41%15,007
Fayette10,17178.60%2,66120.56%1090.84%7,51058.04%12,941
Fisher1,44879.30%35219.28%261.42%1,09660.02%1,826
Floyd1,58477.69%43821.48%170.83%1,14656.21%2,039
Foard44580.76%9917.97%71.27%34662.79%551
Fort Bend157,71844.01%195,55254.57%5,0631.42%-37,834-10.56%358,333
Franklin4,16183.07%80416.05%440.88%3,35767.02%5,009
Freestone6,99180.25%1,63518.77%850.98%5,35661.48%8,711
Frio2,82353.48%2,42245.88%340.64%4017.60%5,279
Gaines5,35589.31%5769.61%651.08%4,77979.70%5,996
Galveston93,91160.56%58,84237.95%2,3071.49%35,06922.61%155,060
Garza1,41385.48%23113.97%90.55%1,18271.51%1,653
Gillespie12,51478.95%3,17620.04%1601.01%9,33858.91%15,850
Glasscock61193.57%395.97%30.46%57287.60%653
Goliad3,08577.22%87721.95%330.83%2,20855.27%3,995
Gonzales5,62773.57%1,94825.47%730.96%3,67948.10%7,648
Gray6,84087.90%82910.65%1131.45%6,01177.25%7,782
Grayson44,16374.26%14,50624.39%8051.35%29,65749.87%59,474
Gregg32,49367.72%14,79630.84%6931.44%17,69736.88%47,982
Grimes9,43275.98%2,83322.82%1491.20%6,59953.16%12,414
Guadalupe47,55361.16%28,80537.04%1,4001.80%18,74824.12%77,758
Hale7,17774.87%2,27923.77%1301.36%4,89851.10%9,586
Hall99585.12%16814.37%60.51%82770.75%1,169
Hamilton3,61683.11%64114.73%942.16%2,97568.38%4,351
Hansford1,84990.33%1668.11%321.56%1,68382.22%2,047
Hardeman1,33084.18%24115.25%90.57%1,08968.93%1,580
Hardin23,85886.33%3,47412.57%3031.10%20,38473.76%27,635
Harris700,63042.69%918,19355.94%22,4341.37%-217,563-13.25%1,641,257
Harrison21,46672.23%7,90826.61%3431.16%13,55845.62%29,717
Hartley1,86889.89%1959.38%150.73%1,67380.51%2,078
Haskell1,84083.11%35315.94%210.95%1,48767.17%2,214
Hays47,68043.59%59,52454.41%2,1912.00%-11,844-10.82%109,395
Hemphill1,48686.40%20611.98%281.62%1,28074.42%1,720
Henderson28,91179.61%7,06019.44%3460.95%21,85160.17%36,317
Hidalgo90,52740.98%128,19958.04%2,1580.98%-37,672-17.06%220,884
Hill11,92679.87%2,86019.15%1450.98%9,06660.82%14,931
Hockley6,53680.69%1,48218.30%821.01%5,05462.39%8,100
Hood26,49681.42%5,64817.36%3971.22%20,84864.06%32,541
Hopkins12,71979.79%3,04619.11%1761.10%9,67360.68%15,941
Houston7,06074.80%2,31424.52%640.68%4,74650.28%9,438
Howard8,05478.64%2,06920.20%1181.16%5,98558.44%10,241
Hudspeth77966.87%37131.85%151.28%40835.02%1,165
Hunt29,16375.56%8,90623.07%5281.37%20,25752.49%38,597
Hutchinson7,68187.55%96511.00%1271.45%6,71676.55%8,773
Irion75985.38%12013.50%101.12%63971.88%889
Jack3,41890.38%3318.75%330.87%3,08781.63%3,782
Jackson5,23182.34%1,03316.26%891.40%4,19866.08%6,353
Jasper12,54280.34%2,95418.92%1150.74%9,58861.42%15,611
Jeff Davis78460.08%50138.39%201.53%28321.69%1,305
Jefferson47,57050.20%46,07348.62%1,1161.18%1,4971.58%94,759
Jim Hogg83340.91%1,19758.79%60.30%-364-17.88%2,036
Jim Wells7,45354.52%6,11944.77%970.71%1,3349.75%13,669
Johnson54,62875.85%16,46422.86%9281.29%38,16452.99%72,020
Jones5,66083.96%99914.82%821.22%4,66169.14%6,741
Karnes3,96875.55%1,23423.50%500.95%2,73452.05%5,252
Kaufman37,62466.34%18,40532.45%6891.21%19,21933.89%56,718
Kendall20,08375.92%6,02022.76%3491.32%14,06353.16%26,452
Kenedy12765.46%6533.51%21.03%6231.95%194
Kent41188.96%4710.17%40.87%36478.79%462
Kerr20,87975.25%6,52423.51%3421.24%14,35551.74%27,745
Kimble1,98786.69%28412.39%210.92%1,70374.30%2,292
King15194.97%85.03%00.00%14389.94%159
Kinney1,14471.37%44627.82%130.81%69843.55%1,603
Kleberg5,50450.29%5,31448.56%1261.15%1901.73%10,944
Knox1,18081.04%26518.20%110.76%91562.84%1,456
Lamar16,76078.16%4,45820.79%2241.05%12,30257.37%21,442
Lamb3,52179.84%84019.05%491.11%2,68160.79%4,410
Lampasas8,08677.76%2,14420.62%1691.62%5,94257.14%10,399
La Salle1,33555.49%1,05243.72%190.79%28311.77%2,406
Lavaca8,80486.34%1,33313.07%600.59%7,47173.27%10,197
Lee6,25577.22%1,75021.60%951.18%4,50555.62%8,100
Leon7,52386.62%1,07212.34%901.04%6,45174.28%8,685
Liberty23,30279.44%5,78519.72%2470.84%17,51759.72%29,334
Limestone6,78974.65%2,21324.33%931.02%4,57650.32%9,095
Lipscomb1,20589.06%1319.68%171.26%1,07479.38%1,353
Live Oak4,19983.08%81916.20%360.72%3,38066.88%5,054
Llano10,07979.61%2,46519.47%1160.92%7,61460.14%12,660
Loving6090.91%46.06%23.03%5684.85%66
Lubbock78,86165.27%40,01733.12%1,9391.61%38,84432.15%120,817
Lynn1,85380.81%42818.67%120.52%1,42564.14%2,293
Madison4,16978.69%1,08820.54%410.77%3,08158.15%5,298
Marion3,47071.34%1,33927.53%551.13%2,13143.81%4,864
Martin1,85785.97%28813.33%150.70%1,56972.64%2,160
Mason1,99180.48%45718.47%261.05%1,53462.01%2,474
Matagorda9,84571.72%3,73327.19%1491.09%6,11244.53%13,727
Maverick6,88144.84%8,33254.29%1330.87%-1,451-9.45%15,346
McCulloch2,90484.52%49014.26%421.22%2,41470.26%3,436
McLennan59,54360.84%36,68837.49%1,6411.67%22,85523.35%97,872
McMullen46089.15%5310.27%30.58%40778.88%516
Medina15,64269.04%6,77329.89%2421.07%8,86939.15%22,657
Menard82380.06%19719.16%80.78%62660.90%1,028
Midland45,62477.34%12,32920.90%1,0351.76%33,29556.44%58,988
Milam7,98475.48%2,49623.60%980.92%5,48851.88%10,578
Mills2,21788.50%27110.82%170.68%1,94677.68%2,505
Mitchell2,17084.14%39715.39%120.47%1,77368.75%2,579
Montague8,61587.74%1,09711.17%1071.09%7,51876.57%9,819
Montgomery193,38271.22%74,37727.39%3,7841.39%119,00543.83%271,543
Moore4,35979.14%1,06219.28%871.58%3,29759.86%5,508
Morris3,87269.30%1,66929.87%460.83%2,20339.43%5,587
Motley60492.64%467.06%20.30%55885.58%652
Nacogdoches17,37864.88%9,00033.60%4071.52%8,37831.28%26,785
Navarro13,80072.16%5,10126.67%2221.17%8,69945.49%19,123
Newton4,88280.11%1,17319.25%390.64%3,70960.86%6,094
Nolan4,13177.11%1,16221.69%641.20%2,96955.42%5,357
Nueces64,61750.75%60,92547.85%1,7801.40%3,6922.90%127,322
Ochiltree2,81289.10%3029.57%421.33%2,51079.53%3,156
Oldham91790.88%818.03%111.09%83682.85%1,009
Orange29,18681.09%6,35717.66%4511.25%22,82963.43%35,994
Palo Pinto10,17981.50%2,17817.44%1321.06%8,00164.06%12,489
Panola9,32681.44%2,05717.96%680.60%7,26963.48%11,451
Parker62,04581.50%13,01717.10%1,0661.40%49,02864.40%76,128
Parmer2,13580.57%48818.42%271.01%1,62762.15%2,650
Pecos3,21568.87%1,38229.61%711.52%1,83339.26%4,668
Polk18,57376.79%5,38722.27%2260.94%13,18654.52%24,186
Potter22,82068.45%9,92129.76%5961.79%12,89938.69%33,337
Presidio72132.52%1,46365.99%331.49%-742-33.47%2,217
Rains5,15585.16%84213.91%560.93%4,31371.25%6,053
Randall50,79678.54%12,80219.79%1,0761.67%37,99458.75%64,674
Reagan94283.81%17215.30%100.89%77068.51%1,124
Real1,64382.90%32016.15%190.95%1,32366.75%1,982
Red River4,51777.80%1,24621.46%430.74%3,27156.34%5,806
Reeves2,25461.10%1,39537.82%401.08%85923.28%3,689
Refugio2,21065.66%1,10832.92%481.42%1,10232.74%3,366
Roberts52996.18%173.09%40.73%51293.09%550
Robertson5,64669.71%2,37429.31%790.98%3,27240.40%8,099
Rockwall36,72668.15%16,41230.45%7531.40%20,31437.70%53,891
Runnels3,80786.35%55212.52%501.13%3,25573.83%4,409
Rusk16,53477.34%4,62921.65%2141.01%11,90555.69%21,377
Sabine4,78487.12%66912.18%380.70%4,11574.94%5,491
San Augustine3,00775.14%98024.49%150.37%2,02750.65%4,002
San Jacinto10,16180.39%2,33718.49%1421.12%7,82461.90%12,640
San Patricio16,51663.79%8,98834.71%3871.50%7,52829.08%25,891
San Saba2,30888.70%28711.03%70.27%2,02177.67%2,602
Schleicher94081.10%21118.21%80.69%72962.89%1,159
Scurry4,98384.89%81813.94%691.17%4,16570.95%5,870
Shackelford1,48491.15%1307.99%140.86%1,35483.16%1,628
Shelby7,97579.06%2,06820.50%440.44%5,90758.56%10,087
Sherman88689.31%919.17%151.52%79580.14%992
Smith69,08068.85%29,61529.52%1,6391.63%39,46539.33%100,334
Somervell4,10582.98%76815.52%741.50%3,33767.46%4,947
Starr8,24747.06%9,12352.06%1550.88%-876-5.00%17,525
Stephens3,38588.96%39710.43%230.61%2,98878.53%3,805
Sterling58491.39%517.98%40.63%53383.41%639
Stonewall61583.56%11615.76%50.68%49967.80%736
Sutton1,22278.48%32220.68%130.84%90057.80%1,557
Swisher1,84578.34%47820.30%321.36%1,36758.04%2,355
Tarrant409,74149.09%411,56749.31%13,3891.60%-1,826-0.22%834,697
Taylor39,54771.73%14,58826.46%1,0001.81%24,95945.27%55,135
Terrell33472.93%11925.98%51.09%21546.95%458
Terry2,81277.85%75720.96%431.19%2,05556.89%3,612
Throckmorton80690.16%829.17%60.67%72480.99%894
Titus7,57071.81%2,85627.09%1151.10%4,71444.72%10,541
Tom Green32,31371.47%12,23927.07%6581.46%20,07444.40%45,210
Travis161,33726.43%435,86071.41%13,1522.16%-274,523-44.98%610,349
Trinity5,57980.41%1,32319.07%360.52%4,25661.34%6,938
Tyler8,19484.82%1,40314.52%630.66%6,79170.30%9,660
Upshur15,80983.56%2,87715.21%2331.23%12,93268.35%18,919
Upton1,17886.11%17012.43%201.46%1,00873.68%1,368
Uvalde6,17459.69%4,07339.38%970.93%2,10120.31%10,344
Val Verde8,28454.21%6,77144.31%2251.48%1,5139.90%15,280
Van Zandt22,27085.56%3,51613.51%2430.93%18,75472.05%26,029
Victoria23,35868.25%10,38030.33%4881.42%12,97837.92%34,226
Walker15,37565.12%7,88433.39%3531.49%7,49131.73%23,612
Waller14,26062.73%8,19136.03%2831.24%6,06926.70%22,734
Ward3,24179.83%76418.82%551.35%2,47761.01%4,060
Washington12,95974.27%4,26124.42%2291.31%8,69849.85%17,449
Webb25,89837.80%41,82061.05%7881.15%-15,922-23.25%68,506
Wharton11,92671.15%4,69428.01%1410.84%7,23243.14%16,761
Wheeler2,15992.38%1687.19%100.43%1,99185.19%2,337
Wichita32,06969.65%13,16128.59%8101.76%18,90841.06%46,040
Wilbarger3,52477.90%95621.13%440.97%2,56856.77%4,524
Willacy2,44143.99%3,10856.01%00.00%-667-12.02%5,549
Williamson139,72948.15%143,79549.56%6,6442.29%-4,066-1.41%290,168
Wilson18,46373.76%6,35025.37%2190.87%12,11348.39%25,032
Winkler1,75382.46%35816.84%150.70%1,39565.62%2,126
Wise27,03283.52%4,97315.37%3601.11%22,05967.15%32,365
Wood19,04983.63%3,50915.40%2210.97%15,54068.23%22,779
Yoakum2,17482.63%42015.96%371.41%1,75466.67%2,631
Young7,11086.30%1,03412.55%951.15%6,07673.75%8,239
Zapata2,03352.48%1,82647.13%150.39%2075.35%3,874
Zavala1,49034.03%2,86465.40%250.57%-1,374-31.37%4,379
Totals5,890,34752.01%5,259,12646.44%175,8131.55%631,2215.57%11,325,286
Swing by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
Trend relative to the state by county
Legend
  •   Democratic — +12.5-15%
  •   Democratic — +10-12.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +5-7.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5-5%
  •   Democratic — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +0-2.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5-5%
  •   Republican — +5-7.5%
  •   Republican — +7.5-10%
  •   Republican — +10-12.5%
  •   Republican — +12.5-15%
  •   Republican — +>15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Flip

    Republican

      Hold
      Flip

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 22 out of the 36 congressional districts in Texas, while Biden won 14, including one held by a Republican.[175]

DistrictTrumpBidenRepresentative
1st72%27%Louie Gohmert
2nd50%49%Dan Crenshaw
3rd50%49%Van Taylor
4th74%24%Vacant
Pat Fallon
5th61%38%Lance Gooden
6th51%48%Ron Wright
7th45%54%Lizzie Fletcher
8th71%28%Kevin Brady
9th23%76%Al Green
10th50%48%Michael McCaul
11th79%20%Mike Conaway
August Pfluger
12th60%38%Kay Granger
13th79%19%Mac Thornberry
Ronny Jackson
14th59%40%Randy Weber
15th49%50%Vicente Gonzalez
16th32%66%Veronica Escobar
17th55%44%Bill Flores
Pete Sessions
18th23%76%Sheila Jackson Lee
19th72%26%Jodey Arrington
20th35%64%Joaquín Castro
21st51%48%Chip Roy
22nd50%49%Pete Olson
Troy Nehls
23rd50%49%Will Hurd
Tony Gonzales
24th47%52%Kenny Marchant
Beth Van Duyne
25th54%44%Roger Williams
26th56%42%Michael Burgess
27th61%37%Michael Cloud
28th47%52%Henry Cuellar
29th33%66%Sylvia Garcia
30th19%80%Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st50%47%John Carter
32nd44%54%Colin Allred
33rd26%73%Marc Veasey
34th48%52%Filemon Vela Jr.
35th31%68%Lloyd Doggett
36th72%27%Brian Babin

Analysis

[edit]

While Biden still wonLatino voters in Texas with 58%[176] and Latinos ofMexican heritage with 63%,[177] Trump significantly improved his numbers amongHispanic voters in the state, particularly in theRio Grande Valley.[178] Trump flippedJim Wells County andLa Salle County which had not voted Republican since1972. He also flippedFrio County,Kleberg County,Reeves County,Val Verde County, andKenedy County; the first 4 having last voted Republican in2004 and the last having last voted Republican in2012. He also became the first Republican to winZapata County sinceWarren G. Harding in1920, flipping it by five points after losing it by 33 points in 2016. Trump's total of eight counties flipped in South Texas was the most flipped by any candidate in any state in 2020, and he flipped more counties in South Texas than he did in the rest of the nation combined. While Biden's lead in the Rio Grande Valley shrunk significantly compared toHillary Clinton's in2016, he overwhelmingly won the Latino vote in the state's urban areas.[179]

Biden significantly outperformedClinton inGreater Austin, which contributed to Trump's relatively weak performance statewide. He flippedHays County andWilliamson County, both of them suburban counties located outside of thestate capital that a Democrat had not won since1992 and1976, respectively. This is also the first election since1956 when the latter voted for the statewide loser.[180] Biden also became the first Democratic candidate to garner at least 50,000 votes inBell County, a county just outside of Greater Austin and had the center of Texas population within it in the 2010 census. At 44.76%, he outperformed Obama's record for the highest percentage of votes a Democratic presidential nominee received in Bell County since 1976, the last time the county voted for a Democrat.

Also, Biden became the first Democrat to ever win the White House withoutJefferson County.[181] Biden also became the first Democrat to win withoutFrio County since it was formed in 1871, the first to win withoutLa Salle County since it was formed in 1880, the first to win withoutReeves County since it was formed in 1883, the first to win withoutVal Verde County since it was formed in 1885, the first to win withoutJim Wells County since it was founded in 1911, the first to win withoutKleberg County since it was founded in 1913, and the first Democrat to win the White House without winning Zapata County sinceWoodrow Wilson in1916.[182] Because of Trump's substantial gains in heavily Hispanic areas, Biden's best performance in Texas came not from the southern border region, butTravis County, encompassing the college-educated, cosmopolitan, liberal bastion of Austin, home to theUniversity of Texas at Austin, where he won the highest percentage for a Democrat sinceHarry S. Truman in1948.

Biden also improved throughout the three most significant metropolitan areas in Texas. While not significantly outperforming Clinton inHarris andBexar counties, he did make considerable inroads into their surrounding suburbs, thus eking out narrow wins inGreater Houston andGreater San Antonio,[183][184] the first time a Democratic presidential nominee had accomplished such a feat in the 21st century. However, in the former, gains were incredibly mixed. Trump saw substantial growth in Houston's north and east, home to large concentrations of Latinos. He also improved in diverseAlief, along Harris County's southwest border, which is heavily Hispanic, Filipino, and Vietnamese. On the other hand, Biden continued Clinton's gains in the wealthy college-educated "Houston Arrow" suburbs in the city's west, though his improvements were significantly more minor.[185]

Perhaps the biggest reason for Biden narrowing the Lone Star State's margin of victory was the surge of Democratic support in theDallas–Fort Worth metroplex, the largest metropolitan area in the state, which he also narrowly won. He scored nearly 65% of the vote inDallas County, the highest percentage won by a Democrat since1940. Additionally, Biden narrowly flippedTarrant County, winning by fewer than 2,000 votes. Tarrant County is home to the fifth-largest city in Texas,Fort Worth, and had not been won by a Democrat since1964, whenfavorite sonLyndon B. Johnson carried it. His growth in the heavily Republican Fort Worth suburbs, which historically kept Democratic candidates from capturing Tarrant, was a critical factor in winning the county and the Metroplex as a whole. Biden improved substantially in the large DFW suburbs ofCollin County andDenton County, which have rapidly grown and diversified in the past decade, narrowing Trump's victory margins from 16.57% and 20% in 2016, down to 4.37% and 8.08%, respectively. Both of their county seats (the two suburban cities ofMcKinney andDenton, respectively) have trended leftward since2016 due to the influx of younger professionals and families in the past decade, which shifted to the Democrats in this election. Biden also won the city ofPlano, the largest city in Collin County, and narrowly won the city ofAllen.[186][187]

In 2021, Texas Attorney GeneralKen Paxton stated onSteve Bannon's podcastWar Room that without blocking Harris County from sending out applications for mail-in ballots to registered voters, Trump would have lost the state.[188]

Edison exit polls

[edit]
2020 presidential election in Texas by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[189][190]
Demographic subgroupBidenTrump% of

total vote

Total vote46.4852.06100
Ideology
Liberals881117
Moderates663238
Conservatives138645
Party
Democrats96430
Republicans59441
Independents514529
Gender
Men405745
Women514855
Race/ethnicity
White336660
Black90912
Latino584123
Asian63303
Other42562
Age
18–24 years old58388
25–29 years old55426
30–39 years old504714
40–49 years old475115
50–64 years old435630
65 and older415826
Sexual orientation
LGBT72275
Not LGBT435695
Education
High school or less405917
Somecollege education425728
Associate degree514716
Bachelor's degree485024
Postgraduate degree544415
Income
Under $30,000524712
$30,000–49,999633516
$50,000–99,999445535
$100,000–199,999435626
Over $200,000544210
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality93518
Coronavirus881014
Economy158440
Crime and safety168310
Health care782111
Region
East267214
Dallas/Ft. Worth544524
Houston area534621
South Central514815
West227611
Southwest574216
Area type
Urban564242
Suburban415751
Rural25747
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago227646
Worse than four years ago891118
About the same702935

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^Poll sponsored by the Texas arm of the party which nominated Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  2. ^The Blue Texas PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  3. ^The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  4. ^Poll sponsored by the Texas arm of the party which nominated Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  5. ^Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund.
  6. ^Giffords' founder, Gabby Giffords, endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
  7. ^The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
  8. ^The Texas Democratic Party exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  9. ^Poll sponsored by Chrysta Castañeda's campaign
  10. ^Size of "extremely likely to vote" sample not yet released
  11. ^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
  12. ^Poll sponsored by Progress Texas, an organization promoting progressive policies
  13. ^Poll sponsored by the Texas Democratic Party
  14. ^abcdBy the time of this poll, Data for Progress, which has worked with both the Sanders and Warren campaigns, had endorsed Warren
  15. ^abPoll sponsored by Democracy Toolbox
  16. ^Poll sponsored by Courageous Conservatives PAC

Samples

  1. ^abcCandidate withdrew shortly before the primary after early voting had already started.
  2. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^abcdefghijklmnoKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
  6. ^abcdWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^abcdef"Someone else" with 2%
  8. ^Standard VI response
  9. ^Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  10. ^Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  11. ^"Another candidate" with no voters
  12. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  13. ^abIncludes "Refused"
  14. ^"Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^ab"Someone else" with 1%
  16. ^Standard IV response
  17. ^"Another candidate" with 1%
  18. ^With only Biden, Trump and "another candidate" as options
  19. ^"Another candidate" with 2%
  20. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 0%
  21. ^"Someone else/third party" with 2%
  22. ^abcdOverlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  23. ^"Refused" with 0%
  24. ^abOverlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
  25. ^"Another party candidate" with 2%
  26. ^abcdefghiNot yet released
  27. ^"Someone else" with 4%; would not vote with 3%
  28. ^"Someone else/third party" with 4%; would not vote with 0%
  29. ^"Other" with 4%; would not vote with 1%
  30. ^"Someone else" and would not vote with 3%
  31. ^abcIncluding voters who lean towards a given candidate
  32. ^abOther with 1%; neither with 2%
  33. ^"Neither-other" with 10%
  34. ^abcWould not vote with 3%
  35. ^abcdeOther with 0%; neither with 2%
  36. ^ab"Someone else" with 9%
  37. ^abOther with 0%; neither with 3%
  38. ^ab"Neither-other" with 12%
  39. ^Other with 1%; neither with 3%
  40. ^"Someone else" with 10%
  41. ^"Neither-other" with 9%
  42. ^"Neither-other" with 16%
  43. ^"Neither-other" with 15%
  44. ^Would not vote with 4%
  45. ^"Neither-other" with 17%
  46. ^"Someone else" with 14%
  47. ^"Someone else" with 7%
  48. ^abcdeListed as the combination of these responses: "Definitely or probably would not vote to re-elect Donald Trump"
  49. ^"Would definitely not vote for Trump" with 48%
  50. ^"Would consider voting for Trump" with 14%; "Don't know/no answer" with 3%

References

[edit]
  1. ^"Official Canvass Report - 2020 November 3rd General Election"(PDF).Texas Secretary of State. November 2020.
  2. ^"Turnout and Voter Registration Figures (1970-current)".
  3. ^Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018)."US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?".The Independent.Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  4. ^"Distribution of Electoral Votes".National Archives and Records Administration. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  5. ^Ramsey, Ross (November 6, 2020)."Analysis: Texas voters elect to stay the course".The Texas Tribune. RetrievedNovember 10, 2020.
  6. ^"Governor Greg Abbott for President in 2020?".News/Talk 95.1 & 790 KFYO. November 8, 2016.
  7. ^Garrett, Robert T. (March 8, 2018)."Texas Gov. Greg Abbott rules out running for president – in 2020, at least". Dallas News.
  8. ^"Races".results.texas-election.com. RetrievedApril 6, 2023.
  9. ^Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019)."Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass".The New York Times. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2019.
  10. ^Herndon, Astead W.; Burns, Alexander (December 31, 2018)."Elizabeth Warren Announces Iowa Trip as She Starts Running for President in 2020".The New York Times. RetrievedJanuary 3, 2019.
  11. ^Arlette Saenz (April 25, 2019)."Joe Biden announces he is running for president in 2020".CNN. RetrievedMay 18, 2019.
  12. ^"2020 MARCH 3RD DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Texas Secretary of State. RetrievedApril 7, 2020.
  13. ^"Delegate Tracker".Associated Press. June 7, 2020. RetrievedJune 7, 2020.
  14. ^"2020 Electoral College Ratings"(PDF).The Cook Political Report. RetrievedOctober 30, 2020.
  15. ^"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedOctober 28, 2020.
  16. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President".crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedMay 21, 2019.
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