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 County results Municipality results Congressional district results Precinct resultsMarkey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% O'Connor: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of theUnited States Senate to represent theCommonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the2020 U.S. presidential election, as well aselections to the United States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and variousstate and local elections. On September 1, incumbent SenatorEd Markey defeated U.S. RepresentativeJoe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for theDemocratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeatedShiva Ayyadurai for theRepublican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2%.
The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent SenatorEd Markey was challenged by U.S. RepresentativeJoe Kennedy III, a member of theKennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on theDW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary sinceRichard Lugar in2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated sinceJoe Lieberman in2006.[3]
In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey.[4] He announced his campaign on September 18.[5] According toVox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent.[6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a primary defeat.[7]
Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for challenging Markey; journalists observed his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale.[8] Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing.[9] This strategy was heavily inspired byAyanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.[9]
Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to define himself for the first time to many voters.[10] The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusettspolitical bosses was widely used by his campaign.[10] Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York CongresswomanAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left. Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on theinternet.[10]
Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from theDSCC, Senate minority leaderChuck Schumer, and DSCC chairCatherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts SenatorElizabeth Warren, and the youth-ledSunrise Movement.[11] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including SpeakerNancy Pelosi,[12][13]House Majority LeaderSteny Hoyer,[14]House Democratic Caucus chairHakeem Jeffries,[15]House Intelligence Committee chairAdam Schiff,[16] andHouse Democratic Senior Chief Deputy WhipJohn Lewis.[17]
As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticize the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting theKennedy Compound with his own upbringing inMalden.[18] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family.[19] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, withNew York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats.[20]
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| Campaign finance reports as of August 12, 2020 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ed Markey (D) | $11,083,613 | $10,402,461 | $3,535,316 |
| Joe Kennedy III (D) | $8,542,661 | $11,661,569 | $1,378,349 |
| Source:Federal Election Commission[151][152] | |||
| Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Date updated | Joe Kennedy III | Ed Markey | Undecided[a] | Margin |
| RealClearPolitics[153] | July 31 – August 27, 2020 | August 27, 2020 | 40.8% | 52.0% | 7.2% | Markey +11.2 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ed Markey | Maura Healey | Shannon Liss-Riordan | Joe Kennedy III | Seth Moulton | Steve Pemberton | Allen Waters | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WHDH[154] | August 25–27, 2020 | 453 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 56% | – | – | 44% | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| Data for Progress[155] | August 24–25, 2020 | 731 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | – | – | 43% | – | – | – | – | 7% | ||
| Suffolk University[156] | August 23–25, 2020 | 500 (LV) | – | 51% | – | – | 41% | – | – | – | 0%[c] | 8% | ||
| UMass Lowell[157] | August 13–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 52% | – | – | 40% | – | – | – | 2%[d] | 6% | ||
| SurveyUSA/Priorities for Progress[158] | August 12–16, 2020 | 558 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | 15% | ||
| UMassAmherst/WCVB[159] | July 31 – August 7, 2020 | 362 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 51% | – | – | 36% | – | – | – | 1% | 12% | ||
| JMC Analytics and Polling[160] | July 29–30, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | – | – | 41% | – | – | – | – | 16% | ||
| Emerson College[161] | May 5–6, 2020 | 620 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | – | – | 58% | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| University of Massachusetts Lowell[162] | April 27 – May 1, 2020 | 531 (LV) | ± 7.8% | 42% | – | – | 44% | – | – | – | 4%[e] | 10% | ||
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe/WBZ[163][164][165] | February 26–28, 2020 | 465 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 36% | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | 1%[f] | 21% | ||
| UMass Amherst/WCVB[166][3] | February 18–24, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.9% | 43% | – | – | 40% | – | – | – | 4% | 13% | ||
| UMass Lowell/YouGov[167] | February 12–19, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 6.1% | 34% | – | – | 35% | – | – | – | – | 23% | ||
| Jan 17, 2020 | Liss-Riordan withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Dec 16, 2019 | Waters withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Oct 14, 2019 | Pemberton withdraws from the race | |||||||||||||
| Sep 21, 2019 | Kennedy announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Suffolk University/Boston Globe[168] | September 3–5, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 28% | – | – | 42% | – | – | – | – | 29% | ||
| 26% | – | <1% | 35% | – | 1% | 0% | – | 36% | ||||||
| Change Research[169] | August 23–25, 2019 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 25% | – | 5% | 42% | – | 7% | – | – | – | ||
| Jul 23, 2019 | Pemberton announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Suffolk University[170] | June 5–9, 2019 | 370 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | – | 5% | – | – | 5% | – | – | 45% | ||
| May 20, 2019 | Liss-Riordan announces her candidacy[171] | |||||||||||||
| May 19, 2019 | Healey announces that she will not run | |||||||||||||
| Apr 1, 2019 | Waters announces his candidacy[172] | |||||||||||||
| Dec 14, 2018 | Moulton announces that he will not run[173] | |||||||||||||
| YouGov/UMass Amherst[174] | November 7–14, 2018 | 635 (RV) | – | 26% | 27% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 35% | ||
| 636 (RV) | – | 29% | – | – | – | 25% | – | – | – | 38% | ||||
| Oct 5, 2018 | Markey announces his candidacy | |||||||||||||
| Suffolk University[175] | September 13–17, 2018 | 433 (LV) | – | 24% | – | – | – | 18% | – | – | – | 45% | ||
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Ed Markey | Joe Kennedy III | |||||
| 1 | February 18, 2020 | WGBH-TV | Jim Braude Margery Eagan | [176] | P | P |
| 2 | February 18, 2020 | WBTS-CD | Latoyia Edwards | [177] | P | P |
| 3 | August 11, 2020 | WBZ-TV | Jon Keller | [178] | P | P |
Markey defeated his challenger,Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins inBoston and its suburbs, and did well inwestern Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.[179] Despite Kennedy's strength in Southern Massachusetts, Markey defeated Kennedy in portions of the 4th district near Boston, carrying Kennedy's hometown ofNewton by 28.2% and neighboringBrookline by 39%. Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength amongprogressives and younger voters.[180][21] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of theKennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[181][182]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Markey (incumbent) | 782,694 | 55.35% | |
| Democratic | Joe Kennedy III | 629,359 | 44.51% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 1,935 | 0.14% | |
| Total votes | 1,413,988 | 100.00% | ||
The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Kevin O'Connor | 158,590 | 59.71% | |
| Republican | Shiva Ayyadurai | 104,782 | 39.45% | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 2,245 | 0.84% | |
| Total votes | 265,617 | 100.00% | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Other write-ins | 3,390 | 99.21% | |
| Libertarian | Vermin Supreme (write-in) | 27 | 0.79% | |
| Total votes | 3,417 | 100.00% | ||
Thegeneral election took place on November 3, 2020.[1]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
| Ed Markey | Kevin O'Conner | |||||
| 1 | October 5, 2020 | WGBH-TV | Jim Braude Margery Eagan | [196] | P | P |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[197] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[198] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[199] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[200] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[201] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[202] | Safe D | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[203] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[204] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[205] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
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| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ed Markey (D) | Kevin O'Connor (R) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassInc[221] | October 23–30, 2020 | 929 (LV) | – | 60% | 29% | 6%[g] | 5% |
| YouGov/UMass Amherst[222] | October 14–21, 2020 | 713 (LV) | – | 65% | 26% | 2%[h] | 7% |
| Remington Research (R)[223][A] | September 16–17, 2020 | 907 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
with Charlie Baker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Ed Markey (D) | Charlie Baker (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[169] | August 23–25, 2019 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 45% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Shannon Liss-Riordan (D) | Charlie Baker (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[169] | August 23–25, 2019 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 35% | 54% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Joe Kennedy III (D) | Charlie Baker (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[169] | August 23–25, 2019 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 41% | – |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[b] | Margin of error | Steve Pemberton (D) | Charlie Baker (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[169] | August 23–25, 2019 | 1,008 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 31% | 56% | – |
Shift by county
Trend by county| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Markey (incumbent) | 2,357,809 | 66.15% | +4.28% | |
| Republican | Kevin O'Connor | 1,177,765 | 33.05% | −4.93% | |
| Independent | Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) | 21,134 | 0.59% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 7,428 | 0.21% | +0.06% | ||
| Total votes | 3,564,136 | 100.0% | |||
| Democratichold | |||||
Markey won all 14 of Massachusetts' counties for the second election in a row.
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Markey won all nine congressional districts.[226]
| District | Markey | O’Connor | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 62% | 37% | Richard Neal |
| 2nd | 62% | 36% | Jim McGovern |
| 3rd | 64% | 35% | Lori Trahan |
| 4th | 64% | 36% | Joe Kennedy III |
| Jake Auchincloss | |||
| 5th | 75% | 25% | Katherine Clark |
| 6th | 63% | 36% | Seth Moulton |
| 7th | 86% | 13% | Ayanna Pressley |
| 8th | 66% | 34% | Stephen Lynch |
| 9th | 58% | 41% | Bill Keating |
General
Partisan clients
Robert F. Kennedy was not on the ballot in Massachusetts in the1968 Democratic Party presidential primaries, and finished second toEugene McCarthy as a write-in candidate.
Official campaign websites
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