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2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary

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March 3, 2020
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60Democratic National Convention delegates (52 pledged with 34 on district-level and 18 statewide; 8 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
 
CandidateJoe BidenBernie Sanders
Home stateDelawareVermont
Delegate count448
Popular vote286,06574,755
Percentage63.28%16.54%

 
CandidateMichael BloombergElizabeth Warren
Home stateNew YorkMassachusetts
Delegate count00
Popular vote52,75025,847
Percentage11.67%5.72%

County results
Congressional district results

Biden

  40 – 50%
  50 – 60%
  60 – 70%
  70 – 80%

Congressional district results

  Joe Biden
Elections in Alabama
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Pledgednational
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Total pledged delegates52

The2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled onSuper Tuesday in theDemocratic Party primaries for the2020 presidential election. Theopen primary allocated 52 pledgeddelegates towards the2020 Democratic National Convention, distributed in proportion to the results of the primary, statewide and within eachcongressional district. The state was also given an additional 8 unpledged delegates (superdelegates), whose votes at the convention were not bound to the result of the primary.

Five candidates ran in this primary, including former vice presidentJoe Biden, senatorBernie Sanders fromVermont, formerNew York City mayorMichael Bloomberg, senatorElizabeth Warren fromMassachusetts, and representativeTulsi Gabbard fromHawaii. Nine other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot. Joe Biden won by an overwhelming landslide, winning everycounty and congressional district in the state. He received 63% of the vote and was awarded 44 delegates. Senator Sanders came in second place, with roughly 17% of the vote and 8 delegates. No other candidate received any delegates: Bloomberg missed the threshold with 12%, and Warren only received 6%. All other candidates received under 1% of the vote.[2]

Procedure

[edit]

Alabama was part of 14 states and one territory holding primaries on March 3, 2020, also known as "Super Tuesday,"[3] having joined other southern states on the date after a bill signed on June 10, 2015, shifted the date.[4]

Voting took place from 7 a.m. until 7 p.mCST. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 52 pledged delegates to the2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 3 and 8 were allocated to each of thestate's 7 congressional districts and another 7 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 11 at-large delegates.[1] The Super Tuesday primary as part of Stage I on the primary timetable received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on the first shared date or on a March date in general.[5]

Should presidential candidates have been allocated more delegates based on the results of the primary than delegate candidates presented, then supplemental delegates would be elected at caucuses on March 28, 2020.[6] Regular national convention district delegates, whose names were electable on the primary ballot beneath the presidential candidates they were pledged for, were elected on the day of the primary and published on March 28, 2020. The state executive committee meeting was held on June 6, 2020, to vote on the 11 at-large and 7 pledged PLEO delegates for theDemocratic National Convention; the meeting had been postponed from April 4, due to theCOVID-19 pandemic. The delegation also included 8 unpledged PLEO delegates: 6 members of theDemocratic National Committee and 2 members of Congress (senatorDoug Jones and representativeTerri Sewell).[1]

Candidates

[edit]

The following people filed for the presidential primary and were on the ballot in Alabama:[7]

Running

Withdrawn

There was an uncommitted option on the ballot, as well.[7]

Fundraising

[edit]

According to theFederal Election Commission, between April 1, 2019, and November 23, 2020,Joe Biden raised $2,412,420.93 from Alabama-based contributions.[8]Bernie Sanders raised $306,101.54,[9]Michael Bloomberg raised $212.82,[10]Elizabeth Warren raised $129,887.99,[11] andTulsi Gabbard raised $19,775.81.[12][d]

Polling

[edit]
Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate
updated
Dates
polled
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Michael
Bloomberg
Elizabeth
Warren
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided[e]
270 to Win[13]March 3, 2020February 28 – March 2, 202044.5%21.0%18.0%11.0%1.0%4.5%
RealClear Politics[14]March 3, 2020Insufficient recent polling to supply an average.
FiveThirtyEight[15]March 3, 2020until March 2, 2020[f]40.2%18.4%15.9%10.9%0.5%14.1%
Average42.35%19.7%16.95%10.95%0.75%9.3%
Alabama primary results (March 3, 2020)63.3%16.5%11.7%5.7%0.2%2.6%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Alabama Democratic Primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
OtherUndecided
Mar 1–2, 2020Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
Swayable[16]Mar 1–2, 2020949 (LV)± 5.0%42%18%3%20%10%8%[g]
Data for Progress[17]Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2020237 (LV)± 6.4%47%18%22%12%2%[h]
Jan 13, 2020Booker withdraws from the race
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
Nov 1, 2019O'Rourke withdraws from the race
SurveyMonkey[18]July 2–16, 2019257± 7.8%36%2%5%13%1%15%9%10%[i]
Change Research[19]March 20–23, 20191,200± 2.8%42%9%3%12%10%13%6%4%[j]
14%4%16%17%27%12%9%[k]

Results

[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary[2]
CandidateVotes%Delegates[20]
Joe Biden286,06563.2844
Bernie Sanders74,75516.548
Michael Bloomberg52,75011.67
Elizabeth Warren25,8475.72
Michael Bennet(withdrawn)[a]2,2500.50
Pete Buttigieg(withdrawn)[c]1,4160.31
Tom Steyer(withdrawn)[c]1,0480.23
Tulsi Gabbard1,0380.23
Amy Klobuchar(withdrawn)[c]9070.20
Andrew Yang(withdrawn)[a]8750.19
Cory Booker(withdrawn)[b]7400.16
John Delaney(withdrawn)[b]2940.07
Marianne Williamson(withdrawn)[b]2240.05
Julian Castro(withdrawn)1840.04
Uncommitted3,7000.82
Total452,093100%52

Results by county

[edit]
2020 Alabama Democratic primary

(results by county)[2]

CountyBidenSandersBloombergWarrenOthersUncommittedTotal votes
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Autauga2,23963.0360417.0042712.021935.43681.91210.593,552
Baldwin7,32158.242,47519.691,51612.068927.102822.24840.6712,570
Barbour1,89974.972027.9728711.33572.25712.80170.672,533
Bibb55956.1813813.8724324.42343.42151.5160.60995
Blount65450.8633626.1314711.43917.08352.72231.791,286
Bullock1,56970.201496.6735615.93441.97853.80321.432,235
Butler1,45165.921717.7750723.03281.27321.45120.552,201
Calhoun4,85561.421,50619.0588111.144575.781632.06430.547,905
Chambers1,83565.1928510.1256920.21612.17531.88120.432,815
Cherokee45553.8516319.2914717.40424.97242.84141.66845
Chilton85662.2523116.8016812.22634.58402.91171.241,375
Choctaw1,35159.332169.4944019.32301.321044.571365.972,277
Clarke1,96859.932587.8693228.38431.31631.92200.613,284
Clay48667.037410.219412.97273.72304.14141.93725
Cleburne21960.166016.484311.81256.87113.0261.65364
Coffee1,59763.8043317.3027611.031184.71552.20240.962,503
Colbert2,99663.5878316.6260312.801813.84982.08511.084,712
Conecuh1,21448.8525410.2270428.33522.091496.001124.512,485
Coosa57465.989911.3815617.93212.41141.6160.69870
Covington85666.3618414.2616612.87453.49302.3390.701,290
Crenshaw55462.81707.9422125.06171.93141.5960.68882
Cullman1,26249.8663325.0131712.521736.84823.24642.532,531
Dale1,65668.5740116.602038.41863.56502.07190.792,415
Dallas6,23666.908979.621,07011.482372.543713.985105.479,321
DeKalb1,19353.6257125.6626712.001145.12542.43261.172,225
Elmore3,08964.7773715.4559112.392595.43661.38270.574,769
Escambia1,46268.7421810.2534116.03482.26432.02150.712,127
Etowah3,74962.141,04817.3780813.392584.281141.89560.936,033
Fayette40151.159812.5021727.68394.97243.0650.64784
Franklin63357.4922220.1615514.08383.45312.82222.001,101
Geneva51162.6210713.1113816.91323.92212.5770.86816
Greene1,78272.381917.7640616.49210.85532.1590.372,462
Hale1,32751.671756.8195036.99441.71542.10180.702,568
Henry1,02074.8316712.251087.92221.61372.7190.661,363
Houston3,91269.2392816.424327.642384.211041.84370.655,651
Jackson1,03955.5640321.5526714.28894.76492.62231.231,870
Jefferson67,57566.4416,14915.888,7298.587,3117.191,5291.504110.40101,704
Lamar32461.485510.4411722.20112.09163.0440.76527
Lauderdale3,56854.831,54723.7774011.374707.221362.09460.716,507
Lawrence1,35565.5925612.3934316.60683.29331.60110.532,066
Lee7,36958.812,60920.821,0708.541,2189.722221.77430.3412,531
Limestone4,12760.891,41120.8270110.344005.901031.52360.536,778
Lowndes2,40669.74%38611.1943312.55541.571203.48511.483,450
Macon3,06767.4548110.5865414.381663.651212.66581.284,547
Madison25,91657.5410,48723.284,1139.133,6228.047201.601810.4045,039
Marengo2,12062.122417.0688225.84521.52902.64280.823,413
Marion39856.8613419.1410414.86355.00121.71172.43700
Marshall1,58152.5277725.8136412.091906.31822.72160.533,010
Mobile26,92366.736,61216.394,27710.601,5853.937441.842070.5140,348
Monroe1,71669.872058.3540516.49381.55702.85220.902,456
Montgomery23,46567.944,50213.044,17812.101,4844.306291.822780.8034,536
Morgan3,95459.561,25018.8391713.813395.111332.00460.696,639
Perry2,09474.971786.3729610.60692.47923.29642.292,793
Pickens1,14252.771969.0675234.75291.34411.8940.182,164
Pike1,78668.3243316.562198.381054.02572.18140.542,614
Randolph52249.8612211.6532631.14282.67373.53121.151,047
Russell3,22169.7556612.2663413.731112.40641.39220.484,618
Shelby9,54356.873,79522.621,4158.431,6729.962831.69710.4216,779
St. Clair2,26857.4083521.1345711.572837.16832.10250.633,951
Sumter2,01261.192898.7970621.47571.731203.651043.16%3,288
Talladega4,61769.1280312.0291713.731972.951271.90190.28%6,680
Tallapoosa1,76265.7030211.2643816.33833.09843.13130.482,682
Tuscaloosa11,82560.263,55218.102,17511.081,6848.583031.54840.4319,623
Walker1,39057.4453822.2326010.741365.62662.73301.242,420
Washington1,10960.171568.4624613.35372.01985.3219710.691,843
Wilcox1,86460.282849.1865421.15622.011595.14692.23%3,092
Winston26652.3611723.037514.76326.30132.5650.98508
Total286,06563.2874,75516.5452,75011.6725,8475.728,9761.993,7000.82452,093

Analysis

[edit]

Joe Biden's victory inAlabama was near-guaranteed.Four years earlier,Hillary Clinton carried the state with 77.84% againstBernie Sanders and won every county and congressional district, a feat repeated by Biden.[21]FiveThirtyEight, which made state-by-state predictions prior to the primaries, gave Biden a 92% chance at winning Alabama, a landslide over Sanders' 5% chance.[22] Aggregate polling from FiveThirtyEight right before election day showed Biden up with 40.2%, Sanders at 18.4%, Bloomberg at 15.9%, Warren at 10.9%, Gabbard at 0.5%, and other/undecided 14.1%.[23]270toWin had Biden ahead as well with 44.5% of support, 23.5 percentage points ahead of Bernie Sanders at 21%.[24]

The week before, Biden swept theSouth Carolina primary by a 28.88% margin over Sanders, reviving Biden's candidacy after crushing losses inIowa,New Hampshire, andNevada.[25] Additionally, the moderate wing of the primary, consisting of formerSouth Bend MayorPete Buttigieg, SenatorAmy Klobuchar fromMinnesota,representativeBeto O'Rourke fromTexas's 16th district, and SenatorKamala Harris fromCalifornia coalesced behind and endorsed Biden while the progressive wing, consisting of Senators Sanders and Warren, remained fractured.[26][27][28][29][30] Thus, right before Super Tuesday, Biden's support surged.

Biden's best performance, regionally, was in theBlack Belt, a historically Democratic region due to high proportions of African Americans.

On the same day, Biden carried all of the other southern Super Tuesday states ofArkansas,North Carolina,Oklahoma,Tennessee,Texas, andVirginia, and his upset victories inMaine,Massachusetts, andMinnesota catapulted him to frontrunner status.[31] He would go on to lose the state inthe general election, but retained his resounding victories among Black voters in the Black Belt.

Exit polls

[edit]
2020 Alabama Democratic presidential primary by subgroup (Edison exit polling)[32]
Demographic subgroupBidenSandersBloombergWarren% of

total vote

Total vote63.2816.5411.675.7297
Ideology
Liberals552411854
Moderates74810436
Conservatives6052209
Party
Democrats671411674
Republicans3
Independents512412723
Gender
Men612011539
Women651412661
Race/ethnicity
White572210746
Black721013449
Latino3
Asian0
Other2
Age
18–29 years old3046121010
30–44 years old54249823
45–64 years old671113738
65 and older78612128
Sexual orientation
LGBT7
Heterosexual641512593
Education
Never attended college661513418
Somecollege education641911328
Associate degree641414517
Bachelor's degree562012919
Postgraduate degree671371018
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality69812618
Healthcare621515547
Climate change64266311
Income inequality532671018
Region
North572213719
North Central591814619
Birmingham/South Central68149544
South641514418
Area type
Urban731210341
Suburban66215520
Rural521917838

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^abcdCandidate withdrew after the New Hampshire primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  2. ^abcdefCandidate withdrew during the first days of the absentee voting period.
  3. ^abcdefCandidate withdrew shortly before the primary when absentee voting had already begun.
  4. ^Tulsi Gabbard's financial data for her2020 presidential campaign is filed under the Tulsi AlohaPAC.
  5. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. ^FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  7. ^Steyer with 2%; Klobuchar with 1%; Gabbard with 0%; "Other" with 5%
  8. ^Gabbard with 2%
  9. ^Sestak with 3%; Bennet with 2%; de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, and Ryan with 0%
  10. ^Castro, Klobuchar, Moulton, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  11. ^Klobuchar with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Yang with 1%; Messam and Williamson with 0%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^abc"Alabama Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. June 7, 2019. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  2. ^abc"Democratic Party – Official 2020 Primary Election Results".Alabama.gov. Alabama Secretary of State. March 11, 2020.Archived from the original on March 29, 2020. RetrievedMarch 25, 2020.
  3. ^Putnam, Josh."The 2020 Presidential Primary Calendar". Frontloading HQ. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  4. ^Hogan, Melanie (June 10, 2015)."SEC Presidential Primary".WVAS. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  5. ^"Democratic Timing Penalties and Bonuses". The Green Papers. November 24, 2021. RetrievedMarch 19, 2022.
  6. ^"Alabama Delegate Selection Plan for the 2020 Democratic National Convention".Alabama Democratic Party. June 6, 2019. RetrievedJune 22, 2019.
  7. ^ab"Alabama Democratic Party – Certification"(PDF).www.sos.alabama.gov. December 11, 2019. RetrievedMarch 4, 2022.
  8. ^"BIDEN, JOSEPH R JR - Candidate overview".Federal Election Commission. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  9. ^"SANDERS, BERNARD - Candidate overview".Federal Election Commission. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  10. ^"BLOOMBERG, MICHAEL R. - Candidate overview".Federal Election Commission. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  11. ^"WARREN, ELIZABETH - Candidate overview".Federal Election Commission. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  12. ^"TULSI ALOHA - committee overview".Federal Election Commission. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  13. ^270 to Win
  14. ^RealClear Politics
  15. ^FiveThirtyEight
  16. ^SwayableArchived 2020-03-03 at theWayback Machine
  17. ^Data for Progress
  18. ^SurveyMonkey
  19. ^Change Research
  20. ^"Delegate Tracker".interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. RetrievedNovember 24, 2022.
  21. ^"Alabama Primary Election Results 2016".The New York Times. March 1, 2016.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  22. ^Silver, Nate (January 9, 2020)."2020 Democratic Primary: Who will win the Alabama primary?".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on January 11, 2020. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  23. ^Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Koeze, Ella; Mehta, Dhrumil; Mithani, Jasmine; Wolfe, Julia (December 4, 2020)."Alabama President: Democratic primary Polls".FiveThirtyEight. Archived fromthe original on June 28, 2018. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  24. ^"2020 Alabama Democratic Primary".270toWin.com. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  25. ^Strauss, Daniel; Gambino, Lauren (November 1, 2020)."Joe Biden: from a campaign that almost collapsed to fighting Trump for the presidency".The Guardian.ISSN 0029-7712. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  26. ^Edelman, Adam; Melvin, Craig; Thompson, Priscilla (March 2, 2020)."Pete Buttigieg endorses Joe Biden for president".NBC News. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  27. ^Lah, Kyung; Merica, Dan; Sullivan, Kate; Wright, Jasmine (March 2, 2020)."Amy Klobuchar ends 2020 presidential campaign and endorses Joe Biden".CNN. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  28. ^Dugyala, Rishika (March 2, 2020)."Beto O'Rourke endorses Biden".POLITICO. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  29. ^Dugyala, Rishika (March 8, 2020)."Kamala Harris endorses Biden".Politico. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  30. ^Rakich, Nathaniel (March 4, 2020)."How Biden Beat Expectations On Super Tuesday".FiveThirtyEight. RetrievedDecember 10, 2020.
  31. ^"Super Tuesday: Live Primary Election Results".The New York Times. March 3, 2020.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedDecember 6, 2020.
  32. ^"Alabama Exit Polls".CNN. RetrievedDecember 25, 2023.

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