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2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

See also:2020 United States Senate elections
Not to be confused with2020 Georgia State Senate election.
For the other Senate election in Georgia held in parallel, see2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia.

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia

← 2016
November 3, 2020 (first round)
January 5, 2021 (runoff)
2022 →
Turnout65.3%Increase (first round)
59.7%Decrease (runoff)
 
CandidateRaphael WarnockKelly Loeffler
PartyDemocraticRepublican
First round1,617,035
32.90%
1,273,214
25.91%
Runoff2,289,113
51.04%
2,195,841
48.96%

 
CandidateDoug CollinsDeborah Jackson
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
First round980,454
19.95%
324,118
6.6%
RunoffEliminatedEliminated


Warnock:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Collins:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     >90%
Jackson:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No dataFirst round county results

Warnock:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Collins:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     >90%
Jackson:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No dataFirst round congressional district results

Warnock:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Collins:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     >90%
Jackson:     30–40%     40–50%
Tie:     20–30%     30–40%     40–50%     50%     No dataFirst round precinct results

Warnock:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie     50%     No dataRunoff county results

Warnock:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie     50%     No dataRunoff congressional district results

Warnock:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Loeffler:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie     50%     No dataRunoff precinct results

U.S. senator before election

Kelly Loeffler[note 1]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Raphael Warnock
Democratic

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The2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia was held on November 3, 2020, and on January 5, 2021 (as a runoff), to elect theClass III member of theUnited States Senate to represent theState of Georgia.DemocratRaphael Warnock defeated appointed incumbentRepublicanKelly Loeffler. The first round of the election was held on November 3, 2020; however, no candidate received a majority of the vote, so the top two candidates—Warnock and Loeffler—advanced to a runoff on January 5, 2021, which Warnock won narrowly.

The special election was prompted by the December 2019 resignation ofJohnny Isakson. Georgia governor Brian Kemp appointed Loeffler as the interim replacement pending the special election.

Under Georgia law, noprimary election took place for the special election; all candidates, regardless of party, were placed on the same ballot (known as anonpartisan blanket primary, or "jungle primary"), and the election was held on November 3, 2020. Warnock received the most votes with 32.9%, and Loeffler came in second with 25.9%. No candidate received more than 50% of the vote, so the top two candidates advanced to arunoff election on January 5, 2021.[1]

The runoff was held concurrently with theregular Georgia Class II Senate election, in which DemocratJon Ossoff defeated incumbent RepublicanDavid Perdue, also in a runoff on January 5. Following the November 3, 2020 Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats, and the Democratic caucus—46 registered Democrats and two allied independents—had 48. Because of this, the two Georgia runoffs determined the balance of theUnited States Senate under the incomingBiden administration. Winning both races gave the Democratic caucus 50 Senate seats, an effective majority with Democraticvice presidentKamala Harris casting tie-breaking votes. The extraordinarily high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide and globally.

Major media outlets, includingDecision Desk HQ, theAssociated Press,The New York Times, andNBC News, called the election for Warnock in the early hours of January 6, just minutes after he declared victory. Though Loeffler vowed to challenge the results after she returned from theelectoral vote certification in Washington,[2] she conceded on January 7.[3] Ossoff and Warnock became the first Democrats to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia sinceZell Miller in the2000 special election. Warnock is the firstBlack senator from Georgia, as well as the first Black Democrat from theSouth elected to the Senate. Though Warnock is the first Democratic senator from this seat since the latter election,[4] hours later Ossoff was declared the winner in the regular Senate election.[5][6] The two elections mark the first time since the1994 United States Senate election in Tennessee and theconcurrent special election that both Senate seats in a state have flipped from one party to the other in a single election cycle. This was also the first time the Democrats achieved this since West Virginia's1958 Senate elections. The election results were certified on January 19, 2021, with the senators-elect taking office on January 20, marking the first time since 2003 that Democrats held both of Georgia’s Senate seats and making them the first Democratic U.S. Senators from Georgia since 2005.[7][8][9] Loeffler would later go on to serve as theAdministrator of the Small Business Administration in 2025 duringDonald Trump'ssecond term in office.

Background

[edit]

On August 28, 2019, Isakson announced that he would resign from the Senate effective December 31, 2019, due to his deteriorating health.[10] This triggered a special election to fill the remainder of his term. On September 17, 2019, Georgia governorBrian Kemp launched a website inviting Georgia citizens to submit their résumés to be considered for appointment.[11] PresidentDonald Trump advocated the appointment of RepresentativeDoug Collins.[12] Kemp appointed Loeffler to fill the seat until the 2020 special election; she took office on January 6, 2020.[13]

Candidates

[edit]

Democratic Party

[edit]

Despite the large number of candidates in the special election, by October 4, 2020, theDemocratic Party had largely consolidated around Warnock's candidacy and had pressured other Democratic candidates, such as Matt Lieberman, to drop out to avoid vote-splitting.[14]

While she had not been treated as a major contender and was largely ignored by pollsters, Deborah Jackson received 6.6% of the vote in the initial round of the election, being the second-best performing Democrat, and outperformed fellow Democrats such as Matt Lieberman andEd Tarver, who pollsters had paid attention to.Al Jazeera attributed her performance, in part, to her being the first Democrat listed in the order of candidates that appeared on the ballot, and her being a familiar figure in the Democratic stronghold ofDeKalb County.[15]

Advanced to runoff

[edit]

Eliminated

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Matt Lieberman

U.S. senators

Individuals

Raphael Warnock

U.S. presidents

U.S. vice presidents

U.S. cabinet members

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Republican Party

[edit]

Advanced to runoff

[edit]

Eliminated

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]
Kelly Loeffler

U.S. presidents

U.S. vice presidents

Federal officials

State officials

Organizations

Individuals

Doug Collins

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Libertarian Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Green Party

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • John "Green" Fortuin[81]

Independents

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Special election

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
This graph was using thelegacy Graph extension, which is no longer supported. It needs to be converted to thenew Chart extension.

Jungle primary

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
OtherUndecided
Landmark Communications[142]November 1, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%24%5%27%1%38%1%[b]3%
Data for Progress[143]October 27 – November 1, 20201,036 (LV)± 3%21%8%26%3%41%1%[c]
Emerson College[144]October 29–31, 2020749 (LV)± 3.5%27%[d]8%24%2%38%2%[e]
Landmark Communications[145]October 28, 2020750 (LV)± 3.6%23%9%25%1%37%2%[f]3%
Public Policy Polling[146]October 27–28, 2020661 (V)19%2%27%0%46%2%[e]4%
Monmouth University[147]October 23–27, 2020504 (RV)± 4.4%18%4%21%3%41%7%[g]6%
504 (LV)[h]19%22%41%
504 (LV)[i]20%22%42%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[148]October 23–26, 20201,041 (LV)± 3.3%23%2%22%1%48%2%[e]2%
University of Georgia[149]October 14–23, 20201,145 (LV)± 4%21%4%20%1%34%5%[j]14%
Landmark Communications[150]October 21, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%27%24%33%
Citizen Data[151]October 17–20, 20201,000 (LV)± 3%19%4%23%1%41%3%10%
Emerson College[152]October 17–19, 2020506 (LV)± 4.3%27%12%20%2%27%2%[e]12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[153]October 13–19, 2020759 (LV)± 4.1%17%7%23%2%32%1%[k]18%[l]
Opinion Insight (R)[154][A]October 12–15, 2020801 (LV)± 3.46%18%[d]3%19%1%31%14%[m]18%[l]
Quinnipiac University[155]October 8–12, 20201,040 (LV)± 3.0%22%5%20%2%41%0%[n]9%
SurveyUSA[156]October 8–12, 2020677 (LV)± 5.7%20%8%26%3%30%2%[o]12%
Data for Progress[157]October 8–11, 2020782 (LV)± 3.5%22%10%22%30%17%[p]
Public Policy Polling[158]October 8–9, 2020528 (V)± 4.3%22%3%24%0%41%2%[e]8%
Landmark Communications[159]October 7, 2020600 (LV)± 4%23%3%26%0%36%4%[q]8%
University of Georgia[160]September 27 – October 6, 20201,106 (LV)± 2.9%21%3%22%4%28%3%[r]19%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[161]September 26–29, 2020969 (LV)± 3.5%25%5%21%2%38%1%[s]7%
Hart Research Associates (D)[162][B]September 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%21%8%[t]28%3%28%
Quinnipiac University[163]September 23–27, 20201,125 (LV)± 2.9%22%9%23%4%31%0%[n]12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[164]September 23–26, 2020789 (LV)± 3.49%16%16%25%26%3%[u]14%
Monmouth University[165]September 17–21, 2020402 (RV)± 4.9%22%11%23%4%21%6%[v]13%
402 (LV)[h]23%11%23%3%23%5%[w]12%
402 (LV)[i]24%9%23%2%25%4%[x]12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[166]September 16–21, 2020523 (LV)± 4.9%19%7%23%4%19%1%[k]27%[l]
University of Georgia[167]September 11–20, 20201,150 (LV)± 4.0%21%11%24%5%20%4%[y]16%
Data For Progress (D)[168]September 14–19, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%22%14%21%26%17%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[169]September 12–17, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%19%15%26%21%5%[z]15%
GBAO Strategies (D)[170][C]September 14–16, 2020600 (LV)± 4%19%11%29%5%25%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[171][D]August 30 – September 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%20%10%24%7%19%1%[aa]19%
Opinion Insight (R)[172][A]August 30 – September 2, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%20%[d]4%17%1%17%13%[ab]27%
HarrisX (D)[173][E]August 20–30, 20201,616 (RV)± 2.4%21%13%26%7%16%18%[ac]
SurveyUSA[174]August 6–8, 2020623 (LV)± 5.3%17%13%26%3%17%2%[o]21%
HIT Strategies (D)[175][F]July 23–31, 2020400 (RV)± 4.9%18%14%22%6%14%1%[ad]23%
Monmouth University[176]July 23–27, 2020402 (RV)± 4.9%20%14%26%5%9%8%[ae]18%
402 (LV)[h]21%14%26%5%10%6%[af]17%
402 (LV)[i]22%13%26%4%10%6%[af]19%
Spry Strategies (R)[177][G]July 11–16, 2020700 (LV)± 3.7%20%23%19%9%20%
GBAO Strategies (D)[170][C]July 6–9, 2020600 (LV)26%19%21%9%16%
Battleground Connect (R)[178][H]July 6–8, 2020600 (LV)± 4%26%15%17%5%10%2%[e]26%
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%26%11%24%9%18%12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[180][J]June 25–26, 2020734 (RV)± 3.6%23%11%21%3%20%22%
MRG (D)[181][K]June 18–23, 20201,259 (LV)27%13%21%23%5%[ag]12%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%34%14%12%6%18%4%[ah]12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[183]May 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 4.38%19%17%18%9%11%[ai]26%
Cygnal (R)[184][L]April 25–27, 2020591 (LV)± 4.0%29%12%11%4%11%2%[aj]31%
Battleground Connect (R)[185][H]March 31 – April 1, 20201,035 (LV)± 3.01%36%11%13%3%16%4%[ak]17%
Battleground Connect (R)[186][H]March 24, 20201,025 (LV)[t]34%18%14%5%13%15%
Battleground Connect (R)[186][H]March 21, 20201,025 (LV)[t]32%19%15%5%12%18%
Battleground Connect (R)[186][H]March 12, 20201,025 (LV)[t]30%18%19%5%10%18%
Battleground Connect (R)[186][H]March 7, 20201,025 (LV)[t]29%16%20%5%12%18%
University of Georgia[187]February 24 – March 2, 20201,117 (LV)± 2.9%21%11%19%4%6%8%[al]31%
Battleground Connect (R)[185][H]February 26–27, 20201,050 (LV)± 3.0%28%5%20%3%13%31%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[188][M]February 17–20, 2020600 (LV)± 4.0%19%18%20%[am]7%[an]21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[189][H]December 16–18, 2019600 (LV)32%42%11%16%

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[190]TossupOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections[191]Tilt ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[192]TossupNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos[193]TossupOctober 30, 2020
Politico[194]Lean RNovember 2, 2020
RCP[195]Lean ROctober 23, 2020
DDHQ[196]TossupNovember 3, 2020
FiveThirtyEight[197]Lean D(flip)November 2, 2020
Economist[198]TossupNovember 2, 2020

Results

[edit]

Since no candidate won a majority of the vote on November 3, the top two finishers—Loeffler and Warnock—advanced to a January 5, 2021 runoff election.[199][200]

2020–21 United States Senate special election in Georgia[201]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticRaphael Warnock1,617,03532.90%
RepublicanKelly Loeffler (incumbent)1,273,21425.91%
RepublicanDoug Collins980,45419.95%
DemocraticDeborah Jackson324,1186.60%
DemocraticMatt Lieberman136,0212.77%
DemocraticTamara Johnson-Shealey106,7672.17%
DemocraticJamesia James94,4061.92%
RepublicanDerrick Grayson51,5921.05%
DemocraticJoy Felicia Slade44,9450.91%
RepublicanAnnette Davis Jackson44,3350.90%
RepublicanKandiss Taylor40,3490.82%
RepublicanWayne Johnson(withdrawn)36,1760.74%
LibertarianBrian Slowinski35,4310.72%
DemocraticRichard Dien Winfield28,6870.58%
DemocraticEd Tarver26,3330.54%
IndependentAllen Buckley17,9540.37%
GreenJohn Fortuin15,2930.31%
IndependentAl Bartell14,6400.30%
IndependentValencia Stovall13,3180.27%
IndependentMichael Todd Greene13,2930.27%
Total votes4,914,361100.00%

By county

[edit]
County[202]Raphael Warnock
Democratic
Kelly Loefflerr
Republican
Doug Collins
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%#%#%
Appling1,05112.88%1,80722.15%2,35528.86%2,94636.11%-1,304-15.98%8,159
Atkinson40613.556%94631.586%1,03834.658%60520.200%-632-21.102%2,995
Bacon3156.98%1,54734.29%1,64636.48%1,00422.25%-1,331-39.50%4,512
Baker45730.185%41327.279%38825.627%25616.909%442.906%1,514
Baldwin6,16734.48%4,63925.94%3,52119.69%3,55819.89%1,5288.54%17,885
Banks6046.959%2,60530.015%4,71054.269%7608.757%-2,105-47.310%8,679
Barrow8,45816.201%14,48338.943%9,67126.004%7,01118.852%-4,812-22.742%37,190
Bartow7,65515.43%21,18342.69%12,89125.98%7,89015.90%-5,236-10.55%49,619
Ben Hill1,30820.30%1,78027.62%1,88029.17%1,47622.91%-572-8.88%6,444
Berrien7019.266%3,31843.860%2,48132.796%1,06514.078%-2,617-34.594%7,565
Bibb30,89644.17501%14,58420.85216%10,19414.57535%14,26620.39748%16,31223.32285%69,940
Bleckley87615.61%2,13338.00%1,92734.33%67712.06%-1,257-22.39%5,613
Brantley2363.1944%2,41032.6205%3,12842.3389%1,61421.8462%-2,892-39.1445%7,388
Brooks1,02414.9817%1,95328.5735%1,75025.6035%2,10830.8413%-929-13.5918%6,835
Bryan3,94118.87%7,95038.06%4,77522.86%4,52220.21%-4,009-19.19%20,888
Bulloch6,66522.52%8,94430.22%7,85426.53%6,13620.73%-2,279-7.70%29,599
Burke3,15830.1768%3,01828.8390%1,91618.3086%2,37322.6756%1401.3378%10,465
Butts2,20719.0111%4,54139.1162%3,19127.4873%1,67014.3854%-2,334-20.1051%11,609
Calhoun81938.09%51023.72%35916.70%46221.49%14014.37%2,150
Camden2,96713.118%6,63129.319%5,91326.144%7,10631.418%-7,520-33.249%22,617
Candler77818.00%1,55535.98%1,25128.94%73817.08%-777-17.98%4,322
Carroll10,68819.908%20,16737.564%14,22126.489%8,61116.039%-9,479-17.656%53,687
Catoosa6,59918.38%13,57737.82%8,23822.95%7,48420.85%-6,978-19.44%35,898
Charlton3347.73%1,09525.33%1,62137.50%1,62129.45%-761-17.60%4,323
Chatham54,63741.59%30,43523.17%18,45514.05%27,84221.19%24,20218.42%131,369
Chattahoochee41026.72751%38825.29335%37224.25033%36423.72881%221.43416%1,534
Chattooga1,12911.636%3,85839.761%2,88329.712%1,83318.891%-2,729-28.125%9,703
Cherokee27,46119.3061024%57,37240.3346457%34,87424.5177165%22,53315.8415354%-29,911-21.0285433%142,240
Clarke24,63648.5783%8,05015.8733%5,80711.4505%12,22124.0979%16,58632.7050%50,714
Clay47433.64%30521.65%25918.38%37126.33%16911.99%1,409
Clayton65,68159.0041%7,0876.3666%5,3614.8160%33,18729.8133%58,59452.6375%111,316
Clinch2398.85%1,06639.48%74227.48%65324.19%-827-30.63%2,700
Cobb146,08137.5562%98,53425.3323%57,86314.8761%86,48822.2354%47,54712.2239%388,966
Coffee2,45516.6757%4,32429.3710%4,85332.9643%3,09020.990%-2,398-16.2886%14,722
Colquitt2,53116.04%6,56241.58%4,33627.47%2,35314.91%-4,031-25.54%15,782
Columbia16,24520.45841%28,60636.02544%18,29923.04515%16,25520.47100%-12,361-15.56703%79,405
Cook1,08515.7087%2,70339.1342%-l1,76225.5104%1,35719.6467%-1,618-23.4255%6,907
Coweta16,59321.936%28,92738.242%18,82424.886%11,29814.936%-12,334-16.306%75,642
Crawford1,17219.54%2,28138.03%1,77129.53%77412.90%-1,109-18.49%5,998
Crisp1,73822.04%2,33029.55%2,31629.37%1,50119.04%-592-7.51%7,885
Dade4616.44%3,08843.15%2,06328.82%1,54521.59%-2,627-36.71%7,157
Dawson1,5069.484%5,26033.126%7,34546.256%1,76811.134%-5,839-36.772%15,879
Decatur1,73815.35471%2,98026.32741%2,99126.42460%3,61031.89328%-1,242-10.97270%11,319
DeKalb226,49861.694%34,4269.377%20,2485.515%85,96123.414%192,07252.317%367,133
Dodge1,42118.311856%2,89737.332474%2,46731.791237%97512.564433%-1,476-19.020619%7,760
Dooly1,18829.6629%1,04125.9925%96824.1698%80820.1748%1473.6704%4,005
Dougherty17,21449.3577%5,62016.1142%4,12911.8391%7,91322.6890%11,59433.2435%34,876
Douglas29,45443.036%14,01120.472%9,14613.363%15,83023.129%15,44322.564%68,441
Early1,00520.2253975%1,13322.8013685%1,31426.4439525%1,51730.5292815%-309-6.2185550%4,969
Echols362.61%55840.41%50836.78%27920.20%-447-32.37%1,381
Effingham4,94315.96%12,74241.14%8,01925.89%5,27017.01%-7,799-25.18%30,974
Elbert1,23714.35%1,52617.70%4,22348.98%1,63618.97%-2,986-34.63%8,622
Emanuel1,69218.4093%3,06133.3043%2,77630.2035%1,66218.0829%-1,369-14.8950%9,191
Evans79119.0740294%1,50336.2430673%1,09926.5010851%75418.1818182%-172-17.1690379%4,147
Fannin1,69411.625832%3,87726.607645%7,54251.760346%1,45810.006177%-5,848-40.134514%14,571
Fayette22,84032.19531448%21,75930.67153449%13,91619.61602436%12,42717.51712667%1,0811.5237800%70,942
Floyd8,15119.91449%15,41737.66675%11,09727.11214%6,26515.30662%-7,266-17.75226%40,930
Forsyth23,89518.815%44,38334.947%35,06727.612%23,65518.626%-20,488-16.132%127,000
Franklin6135.79%2,25821.33%6,15858.17%1,55714.71%-1,645-15.54%10,586
Fulton263,36550.88%83,53616.14%48,4379.36%122,26923.62%179,82934.74%517,607
Gilmer1,89711.71%7,71147.60%4,90830.29%1,68510.40%-5,814-35.89%16,201
Glascock845.60%81954.60%43629.07%16110.73%-735-49.00%1,500
Glynn7,27217.84%11,81028.97%10,29325.24%11,39327.95%-4,538-11.13%40,768
Gordon2,61911.16%9,53940.64%7,58632.32%3,72615.88%-6,920-29.48%23,470
Grady1,40613.51923%2,71926.14423%3,47533.41346%2,80026.92308%-2,069-19.89423%10,400
Greene2,57223.123%3,34930.109%3,60832.437%1,59414.331%-1,036-9.314%11,123
Gwinnett142,96835.501%88,61322.004%57,88614.374%113,24828.121%54,35513.497%402,715
Habersham2,13310.60%5,37126.69%10,31951.28%2,29911.43%-8,186-40.68%20,122
Hall14,88916.637%21,96524.543%39,47044.103%13,17114.717%-24,581-27.466%89,495
Hancock2,12952.07%60814.87%47611.64%87621.42%1,52137.20%4,089
Haralson1,2008.59%6,53346.76%4,48832.13%1,74912.52%-5,333-38.17%13,970
Harris3,77619.12%7,09035.90%6,43832.60%2,44612.38%-3,314-16.78%19,750
Hart1,30210.54%6,66553.95%2,08016.84%2,30718.67%-5,363-43.41%12,354
Heard59211.28264%2,54248.44673%1,51528.87364%59811.39699%-1,950-37.16409%5,247
Henry49,40740.674%26,82422.083%16,83613.860%28,40323.383%22,58318.591%121,470
Houston21,94529.71%22,32730.23%16,03721.71%13,55418.35%-382-0.52%73,863
Irwin60614.8021%1,45935.6375%1,43535.0513%59414.5091%-853-20.8354%4,094
Jackson4,78312.87%12,59333.89%14,91440.14%4,86613.10%-10,131-27.27%37,156
Jasper1,21816.16%3,24643.07%2,14228.42%93112.35%-2,028-26.91%7,537
Jeff Davis59010.5432%1,71930.7184%1,77431.7012%1,51327.0372%-1,184-21.1580%5,596
Jefferson2,48733.33%1,84724.75%1,42919.15%1,69922.77%6408.58%7,462
Jenkins80623.95%1,10432.80%84925.22%60718.03%-298-8.85%3,366
Johnson76319.25%1,37634.71%1,24331.36%58214.68%-613-15.46%3,964
Jones3,49623.71%5,39736.60%3,80925.83%2,04413.86%-1,901-12.89%14,746
Lamar1,99422.32%3,24336.30%2,58528.93%1,11212.45%-1,249-13.98%8,934
Lanier36510.6352%1,19134.7028%94427.5058%93227.1562%-826-24.0676%3,432
Laurens5,33423.89%6,59229.53%6,76230.29%3,63716.29%-1,428-6.40%22,325
Lee2,97018.06%6,36538.70%4,67528.42%2,43714.82%-3,395-20.64%16,447
Liberty7,72336.8587%3,75917.9402%2,93914.0266%6,53231.1745%3,96418.9185%20,953
Lincoln80317.598%1,72537.804%1,24627.307%78917.291%-922-20.206%4,563
Long1,23322.31%1,70830.90%1,25022.62%1,33624.17%-475-8.59%5,527
Lowndes7,93117.568%12,60727.926%10,08522.339%14,52232.167%-4,676-20.206%45,145
Lumpkin2,04213.34%7,07446.20%4,36628.51%1,83011.95%-5,032-32.86%15,312
Macon1,98743.603%82318.060%81017.775%93720.562%1,16425.543%4,557
Madison2,28415.554345%5,75639.199128%4,80832.743122%1,83612.503405%-3,472-23.644783%14,684
Marion84923.94%1,07830.40%98627.81%63317.85%-229-6.46%3,546
McDuffie2,38723.17%3,50334.00%2,26021.94%2,15220.89%-1,116-10.83%10,302
McIntosh1,54523.80%2,11732.61%1,49423.01%1,33620.58%-572-8.81%6,492
Meriwether3,01828.19%3,25530.40%2,66424.88%1,77016.53%-237-2.21%10,707
Miller27110.2535%88133.3333%88333.4090%60823.0042%-612-23.1555%2,781
Mitchell2,59829.503%2,09023.734%2,53828.821%1,58017.942%600.681%8,806
Monroe3,19720.83%6,07739.60%4,20127.38%1,87012.19%-2,880-18.77%15,345
Montgomery58215.164148%1,33234.705576%1,26632.985930%65817.144346%-750-19.541428%3,838
Morgan2,39220.674%4,36037.684%3,50230.268%1,31611.374%-1,968-17.010%11,570
Murray7655.1609%6,30042.5015%4,79332.3349%2,96520.0027%-5,535-37.3406%14,823
Muscogee32,56041.03%15,30719.29%12,54415.81%18,93723.87%17,25321.74%79,550
Newton20,45038.17%13,44325.09%8,22215.35%11,45721.39%7,00713.08%53,572
Oconee5,44821.872%9,91439.801%6,16524.750%3,38213.577%-4,466-17.929%25,142
Oglethorpe1,72021.58%2,90136.40%2,17627.30%1,17314.72%-1,181-14.82%7,970
Paulding19,11822.763%30,59736.431%18,44421.961%15,82718.845%-11,479-13.668%83,986
Peach4,03232.6425%3,35827.1859%2,62921.2840%2,33318.8876%6745.4566%12,352
Pickens2,07612.3307199%6,00335.6557377%7,18542.6764077%1,5729.3371347%-5,109-30.3456878%16,836
Pierce4785.44%2,82132.11%4,03445.91%1,45316.54%-3,556-40.47%8,786
Pike1,11810.57%4,96546.94%3,53233.39%9639.10%-3,847-36.37%10,578
Polk2,33113.6836%6,94240.7514%5,23030.7015%2,53214.8635%-4,611-27.0678%17,035
Pulaski81520.488%1,48037.205%1,13728.582%54613.725%-665-16.717%3,978
Putnam2,44520.89%4,20835.95%3,59430.70%1,45912.46%-1,763-15.06%11,706
Quitman28326.30%28526.49%26224.35%24622.86%-2-0.19%1,076
Rabun1,22313.03%2,47526.37%4,57648.75%1,11211.85%-3,353-35.72%9,386
Randolph1,17939.0139%70623.3620%58019.1926%55718.4315%47315.6519%3,022
Richmond34,33140.143%15,39418.000%9,07610.612%26,72131.245%18,93722.143%85,522
Rockdale21,94249.63%7,32316.56%4,4129.98%10,53523.83%14,61933.07%44,212
Schley31514.164%77434.802%86338.804%27212.230%-459-20.638%2,224
Screven1,68526.0836%2,07832.1672%1,47522.8328%1,22218.9164%-393-6.0836%6,460
Seminole41911.1942%1,02127.2776%1,26333.7430%1,04027.7852%-602-16.0834%3,743
Spalding8,54328.75%9,75932.84%6,85823.08%4,55415.33%-1,216-4.09%29,714
Stephens1,1449.87%2,12618.35%6,65257.40%1,66614.38%-5,508-47.53%11,588
Stewart76440.10%39020.47%3279.98%42417.17%37419.63%1,905
Sumter4,47437.3518%2,55321.3141%2,73522.8335%2,21618.5006%1,73914.5183%11,978
Talbot1,53144.40%67719.63%62118.01%61917.95%85424.77%3,448
Taliaferro34338.801%17820.136%15016.968%21324.095%16518.665%884
Tattnall1,20015.12%3,04738.39%2,33229.38%1,35817.11%-1,847-23.27%7,937
Taylor96225.524%1,17331.122%1,05027.859%58415.495%-211-5.598%3,769
Telfair1,00323.94%1,18728.34%1,29330.87%70616.85%-200-4.77%4,189
Terrell1,50834.683%1,05824.333%82418.951%95822.033%45010.350%4,348
Thomas3,80917.92%5,72526.94%5,75927.10%5,96028.04%-1,950-9.18%21,253
Tift3,28420.49554%5,60334.96848%4,47327.91612%2,66316.61986%-2,319-14.47294%16,023
Toombs1,76016.53048%3,50332.90129%3,45632.45985%1,92818.10838%-1,743-16.37081%10,647
Towns1,01712.96%2,03625.94%3,99950.95%79710.15%-2,982-37.99%7,849
Treutlen55118.56%96532.50%91730.89%53618.05%-414-13.94%3,795
Troup7,47225.30%9,16331.02%7,38324.99%5,52018.69%-1,691-5.72%29,538
Turner86623.27%1,31035.21%85623.00%68918.52%-444-11.93%3,721
Twiggs1,50834.70656%1,27129.25201%90920.92060%65715.12083%2375.45455%4,345
Union1,90412.39422%3,94525.68025%8,10052.72751%1,4139.19802%-6,196-40.33329%15,362
Upson3,07924.19%4,23933.30%3,63928.59%1,77213.92%-1,160-9.11%12,729
Walker2,1137.41%12,25843.00%7,70427.03%6,43122.56%-10,145-35.59%28,506
Walton8,44316.7493%22,81345.2567%12,38124.5616%6,77113.4324%-14,370-28.5074%50,408
Ware1,74812.72%3,29523.98%5,30538.60%3,39524.70%-3,557-25.88%13,743
Warren81731.61%63124.41%44517.21%69226.77%1867.20%2,585
Washington3,04633.10%2,37625.82%1,91120.77%1,86920.31%6707.28%9,202
Wayne1,66013.30555%4,79138.40173%4,01532.18179%2,01016.11093%-3,131-25.09618%12,476
Webster44332.62%36226.66%32423.86%22916.86%815.96%1,358
Wheeler4620.6186%68830.8382%69431.1071%38917.4361%-234-10.4886%2,231
White1,60410.95%4,03327.54%7,57151.70%1,4369.81%-5,967-40.75%14,644
Whitfield3,87610.90%12,90536.30%9,45526.60%9,31426.20%-9,029-25.40%35,550
Wilkes1,25725.5956%1,49330.4011%1,13123.0299%1,03020.9734%-236-4.8055%4,911
Wilkinson1,53932.80%1,40729.99%1,05722.53%68914.68%1322.81%4,692
Worth1,58917.41%3,54138.80%2,77430.40%1,22213.39%-1,952-21.39%9,126
Totals1,617,03532.904%1,273,21425.908%980,45419.951%1,043,65821.237%343,8216.997%4,914,361

By congressional district

[edit]

Loeffler won seven out of 14 congressional districts to Warnock's six and Collins's one.[203]

DistrictWarnockLoefflerCollinsElected
Representative
1st26.97%27.79%21.94%Buddy Carter
2nd37.35%21.47%18.89%Sanford Bishop
3rd25.21%33.93%24.2%Drew Ferguson
4th56.07%10.97%6.91%Hank Johnson
5th63.76%7.61%4.35%Nikema Williams
6th36.27%27.05%15.88%Lucy McBath
7th31.05%25.34%17.1%Carolyn Bourdeaux
8th22.43%32.57%25.18%Austin Scott
9th13.65%27.58%45.49%Andrew Clyde
10th25.83%33.76%22.59%Jody Hice
11th27.19%33.79%20.11%Barry Loudermilk
12th25.69%28.68%22.27%Rick W. Allen
13th52.91%12.71%8.12%David Scott
14th14.3%39.46%26.99%Marjorie Taylor Greene

Runoff

[edit]

The runoff election for Isakson's former seat was on January 5, 2021. Theregularly scheduled runoff election for the Georgia U.S. Senate seat held by RepublicanDavid Perdue was also decided in a January 5 runoff, but was defeated byJon Ossoff also in a close finish. Before the Georgia runoffs in the 2020 U.S. Senate elections, Republicans held 50 Senate seats and the Democratic caucus held 48.[204] Warnock declared victory on January 6, 2021.[205] If Democrats won the other Georgia runoff held on January 5, their caucus would gain control of the Senate, as the resultant 50–50 tie would be broken by Democratic vice president-electKamala Harris. If they lost the second race, Republicans would retain control.[206] The extremely high political stakes caused the races to attract significant attention nationwide.[207][208][209] They were the third and fourth Senate runoff elections held in Georgia since runoffs were first mandated in 1964, after runoffs in1992[citation needed] and2008.[210] It was also the third time that both of Georgia's Senate seats have been up for election at the same time, following double-barrel elections in1914 and1932.[citation needed] TheAssociated Press and other major news outlets called the race for Warnock in the early morning hours of January 6.[211] His win was attributed to heavy black voter turnout.[212]

The deadline for registration for the runoff election was December 7.[213] Absentee ballots for the runoff were sent out beginning on November 18, and in-person voting began on December 14.[214][215]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[216]TossupJanuary 4, 2021
Inside Elections[217]TossupDecember 14, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[218]TossupJanuary 5, 2021

Polling

[edit]
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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kelly
Loeffler

Republican
Raphael
Warnock

Democratic
Undecided
[ao]
Margin
270 To Win[219]December 30, 2020 – January 4, 2021January 4, 202147.4%50.2%2.4%Warnock +2.8
RealClearPolitics[220]December 14, 2020 – January 4, 2021January 5, 202148.8%49.3%1.9%Warnock +0.5
538[221]November 9, 2020 – January 4, 2021January 5, 202147.2%49.4%2.2%Warnock +2.1
Average47.8%49.6%2.2%Warnock +1.8
Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
OtherUndecided
Trafalgar Group (R)[222]January 2–4, 20211,056 (LV)± 2.9%50%48%2%
AtlasIntel[223]January 2–4, 2021857 (LV)± 3%47%51%2%
InsiderAdvantage[224]January 3, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%49%49%2%
National Research Inc[225]January 2–3, 2021500 (LV)± 4.4%45%46%9%
University of Nevada Las Vegas Lee Business School[226]December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021550 (LV)± 4%49%48%3%
Targoz Market Research[227]December 30, 2020 – January 3, 2021713 (LV)± 3.7%49%51%0%
1,342 (RV)48%49%3%
AtlasIntel[228]December 25, 2020 – January 1, 20211,680 (LV)± 2%47%51%2%
Gravis Marketing[229]December 29–30, 20201,011 (LV)± 3.1%47%49%3%
JMC Analytics and Polling[230]December 28–29, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%45%54%1%
Trafalgar Group (R)[231]December 23–27, 20201,022 (LV)± 3.0%49%50%1%
Open Model Project[232]December 21–27, 20201,405 (LV)± 4.7%50%46%4%
InsiderAdvantage[233]December 21–22, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%47%49%4%
Mellman Group[234]December 18–22, 2020578 (LV)± 4.1%47%50%3%
Reconnect Research/Probolsky Research[235]December 14–22, 20201,027 (LV)± 4%42%43%15%
SurveyUSA[236]December 16–20, 2020600 (LV)± 5.1%45%52%3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[237]December 14–16, 20201,064 (LV)± 3.0%52%46%2%
Emerson College[238]December 14–16, 2020605 (LV)± 3.9%51%48%1%
InsiderAdvantage[239]December 14, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%49%48%3%
Wick[240]December 10–14, 20201,500 (LV)50%48%2%
RMG Research[241]December 8–14, 20201,417 (LV)± 2.6%48%49%4%
Baris/Peach State Battleground Poll[242]December 4–11, 20201,008 (LV)± 3.1%43%48%9%
Trafalgar Group (R)[243]December 8–10, 20201,018 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[244]November 30 – December 4, 20201,250 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%
Trafalgar Group (R)[245]December 1–3, 20201,083 (LV)± 2.9%50%45%5%
SurveyUSA[246]November 27–30, 2020583 (LV)± 5.2%45%52%2%
RMG Research[247]November 19–24, 20201,377 (LV)± 2.6%46%48%6%
Data for Progress[248]November 15–20, 20201,476 (LV)± 2.6%47%50%4%
InsiderAdvantage[249]November 16, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%48%49%3%
VCreek/AMG (R)[250][ap][N]November 10, 2020300 (LV)± 5.6%50%46%5%
Remington Research Group[251]November 8–9, 20201,450 (LV)± 2.6%49%48%3%
Monmouth University[147]October 23–27, 2020504 (LV)± 4.4%45%51%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[148]October 23–26, 20201,041 (LV)± 3.4%37%51%9%[aq]2%
Emerson College[152]October 17–19, 2020506 (LV)± 4.3%42%47%12%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[153]October 13–19, 2020759 (LV)± 4.1%41%45%14%[l]
Quinnipiac University[155]October 8–12, 20201,040 (LV)± 3.0%44%52%0%[n]4%
Data for Progress[157]October 8–11, 2020782 (LV)± 3.5%40%44%16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[161]September 26–29, 2020969 (LV)± 3.5%39%49%8%[ar]4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[180][J]June 25–26, 2020734 (RV)± 3.6%40%43%17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%32%45%18%[as]6%
Battleground Connect (R)[252][H]March 31 – April 1, 20201,035 (LV)± 3.0%40%41%19%
The Progress Campaign (D)[253]March 12–21, 20203,042 (RV)± 4.5%38%38%24%
Hypothetical polling

Loeffler vs. Collins

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Doug
Collins
Undecided
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%28%34%37%
Public Policy Polling (D)[254]December 12–13, 2019711 (LV)[at]16%56%27%

Loeffler vs. Lieberman

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
OtherUndecided
Data for Progress[157]October 8–11, 2020782 (LV)± 3.5%42%41%17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[161]September 26–29, 2020969 (LV)± 3.5%39%39%17%[au]5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%46%39%15%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%32%44%18%[as]6%

Loeffler vs. Tarver

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%32%43%20%[av]6%

Collins vs. Lieberman

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Matt
Lieberman (D)
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[161]September 26–29, 2020969 (LV)± 3.5%44%38%13%[aw]5%
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%46%37%16%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%44%44%7%[ax]5%

Collins vs. Tarver

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Ed
Tarver (D)
OtherUndecided
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%45%42%8%[ar]5%

Collins vs. Warnock

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Raphael
Warnock (D)
OtherUndecided
Monmouth University[147]October 23–27, 2020504 (LV)± 4.4%45%52%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[148]October 23–26, 20201,041 (LV)± 3.3%42%51%5%[ay]2%
Emerson College[152]October 17–19, 2020506 (LV)± 4.3%47%48%6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[153]October 13–19, 2020759 (LV)± 4.1%41%45%14%[l]
Quinnipiac University[155]October 8–12, 20201,040 (LV)± 3.0%42%54%0%[n]4%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[161]September 26–29, 2020969 (LV)± 3.5%44%49%4%[ah]4%
Gravis Marketing (R)[179][I]July 2, 2020513 (LV)± 4.3%47%38%15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[180][J]June 25–26, 2020734 (RV)± 3.6%43%41%17%
Civiqs/Daily Kos[182]May 16–18, 20201,339 (RV)± 3.1%44%45%6%[az]5%
The Progress Campaign (D)[255]May 6–15, 20202,893 (LV)± 2.0%43%41%16%[ba]
Battleground Connect (R)[252][H]March 31 – April 1, 20201,035 (LV)± 3.0%49%36%15%
The Progress Campaign (D)[253]March 12–21, 20203,042 (RV)± 4.5%41%39%20%

Loeffler vs. Broun

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Paul
Broun
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[254]December 12–13, 2019711 (LV)[at]27%14%59%

Collins vs. Abrams

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Doug
Collins (R)
Stacey
Abrams (D)
Undecided
The Progress Campaign (D)[253][1]March 12–21, 20203,042 (RV)± 4.5%43%47%10%

Loeffler vs. generic opponent

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Loeffler
Someone elseUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[254]December 12–13, 2019711 (LV)[at]26%30%44%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Generic
Republican
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[256]December 8–14, 20201,377 (LV)± 2.6%46%[bb]42%11%[bc]
Quinnipiac University[163]September 23–27, 20201,125 (LV)± 2.9%48%49%3%

Results

[edit]
Margin swing by county
Legend
  •   Republican — +10−12.5%
  •   Republican — +5−7.5%
  •   Republican — +2.5−5%
  •   Republican — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +0−2.5%
  •   Democratic — +2.5−5%
  •   Democratic — +5−7.5%
  •   Democratic — +7.5-10%
  •   Democratic — +10−12.5%
  •   Democratic — +12.5−15%
  •   Democratic — >15%
County flips
Legend
  • Democratic

      Hold
      Gain from Republican

    Republican

      Hold

2021 United States Senate special election in Georgia runoff[257]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
DemocraticRaphael Warnock2,289,11351.04%N/A
RepublicanKelly Loeffler (incumbent)2,195,84148.96%N/A
Total votes4,484,954100.00%N/A
Democraticgain fromRepublican

By county

[edit]
By county
County[258]Raphael Warnock
Democratic
Kelly Loeffler
Republican
MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Appling1,59621.915,69078.09-4,094-56.187,286
Atkinson72227.271,92672.73-1,204-45.462,648
Bacon55913.533,57286.47-3,013-72.944,131
Baker62543.4081556.60-190-13.201,440
Baldwin8,56952.037,89947.976704.0616,468
Banks86011.556,58688.45-6,003-76.907,446
Barrow9,41729.3622,66070.64-13,243-41.2832,077
Bartow10,92825.4332,04974.57-21,121-49.1442,977
Ben Hill2,19338.303,53361.70-1,340-23.325,726
Berrien1,14517.135,53982.87-4,394-65.746,684
Bibb39,97262.9223,55537.0816,41725.8463,527
Bleckley1,21423.753,89876.25-2,684-52.505,112
Brantley6139.275,99990.73-5,386-81.466,612
Brooks2,45539.493,76160.51-1,306-21.026,216
Bryan6,00932.3012,59667.70-6,587-35.4018,605
Bulloch9,84837.6816,28762.32-6,439-24.6426,135
Burke4,69549.434,80450.57-109-1.149,499
Butts3,02629.647,18370.36-4,157-40.7210,209
Calhoun1,20659.3582640.6538018.702,032
Camden6,80734.2613,06365.74-6,256-31.4919,870
Candler1,13128.872,78771.13-1,656-42.263,918
Carroll14,81931.4232,33868.58-17,519-37.1647,157
Catoosa5,98521.5521,79278.45-15,807-56.9027,777
Charlton95224.422,94775.58-1,995-51.163,899
Chatham72,55059.8348,70740.1723,84319.66121,257
Chattahoochee60145.5072054.50-119-9.001,321
Chattooga1,68620.476,55079.53-4,864-59.068,236
Cherokee38,36230.0189,48069.99-51,118-39.98127,842
Clarke33,18771.8413,00928.1620,17843.6846,196
Clay72755.5058344.5014411.001,310
Clayton91,18988.5711,76511.4379,42477.14102,954
Clinch61625.091,83974.91-1,223-49.822,455
Cobb203,87656.85154,71443.1549,16213.70358,590
Coffee4,08230.889,13769.12-5,055-38.2413,129
Colquitt3,72726.5110,33073.49-6,603-46.9814,057
Columbia26,54536.8045,58863.20-19,043-26.4072,133
Cook1,89530.544,31069.46-2,415-38.926,205
Coweta21,82532.4445,46267.56-23,637-35.1267,287
Crawford1,50227.963,86972.04-2,367-44.085,371
Crisp2,70237.854,43662.15-1,734-24.307,138
Dade1,11117.535,22782.47-4,116-64.946,338
Dawson2,27415.8112,11384.19-9,839-68.3814,387
Decatur4,12141.025,92658.98-1,805-17.7810,047
DeKalb293,90284.1255,47915.88238,42368.24349,381
Dodge2,02128.145,16071.86-3,139-43.727,181
Dooly1,81248.401,93251.60-120-3.203,744
Dougherty22,79370.989,32029.0213,47341.9632,113
Douglas40,63065.1421,74334.8618,88730.2862,373
Early2,17247.752,37752.25-205-4.504,549
Echols12810.791,05889.21-930-78.421,186
Effingham7,13725.6620,68274.34-13,545-48.6827,819
Elbert2,48230.975,53169.03-3,049-38.068,013
Emanuel2,56930.745,78769.26-3,218-38.528,356
Evans1,20132.112,53967.89-1,338-35.783,740
Fannin2,43618.1311,00481.88-8,568-63.7513,440
Fayette31,29746.4436,09453.56-4,167-7.1267,391
Floyd10,83430.2724,95969.73-14,125-39.4635,793
Forsyth37,68732.7377,45167.27-39,764-34.54115,138
Franklin1,34514.647,84085.36-6,495-70.729,185
Fulton354,55272.54134,19127.46220,36145.08488,743
Gilmer2,69718.1912,13281.81-9,435-63.6214,829
Glascock1309.531,23490.47-1,104-80.941,364
Glynn13,98137.3523,44862.65-9,467-25.3037,429
Gordon3,92919.3016,42580.70-12,496-61.4020,354
Grady3,10233.256,22666.75-3,124-33.509,328
Greene3,75835.416,85564.59-3,097-29.1811,247
Gwinnett224,19760.63145,59739.3778,60021.26369,794
Habersham3,24318.0014,77682.00-11,533-64.0018,019
Hall22,29628.2256,71871.78-34,422-43.5679,014
Hancock2,78072.431,05827.571,72243.843,838
Haralson1,62613.3710,53386.63-8,907-73.2612,159
Harris5,03427.5213,25872.48-8,224-44.9618,292
Hart2,84725.428,35474.58-5,507-49.1611,201
Heard80117.123,87782.88-3,076-65.764,678
Henry68,57662.6840,82437.3227,75225.36109,400
Houston29,74944.8136,64455.19-6,895-10.3866,393
Irwin88524.472,73275.53-1,847-51.063,617
Jackson6,92521.2525,65878.75-18,733-57.5032,583
Jasper1,68324.745,12075.26-3,437-50.526,803
Jeff Davis93718.444,14381.56-3,206-63.125,080
Jefferson3,76754.393,15945.616088.786,926
Jenkins1,16937.541,94562.46-776-24.923,114
Johnson1,04729.282,52970.72-1,482-41.443,576
Jones4,53434.008,80366.00-4,269-32.0013,337
Lamar2,42830.405,55869.60-3,130-39.207,986
Lanier91029.972,12670.03-1,216-40.063,036
Laurens7,43536.7312,80663.27-5,371-26.5420,241
Lee4,24028.4610,65771.54-6,417-43.0814,897
Liberty11,87564.786,45735.225,41829.5618,332
Lincoln1,31731.212,90368.79-1,586-37.584,220
Long1,80338.872,83561.13-1,032-22.264,638
Lowndes17,38243.6322,45556.37-5,073-12.7439,837
Lumpkin2,86820.9410,83179.06-7,963-58.1213,699
Macon2,68562.791,59137.211,09425.584,276
Madison3,10223.4910,10176.51-6,999-53.0213,203
Marion1,21737.901,99462.10-777-24.203,211
McDuffie3,75240.645,48059.36-1,728-18.729,232
McIntosh2,41740.643,53159.36-1,114-18.725,948
Meriwether4,03641.005,80859.00-1,772-19.009,844
Miller65126.531,80373.47-1,152-46.942,454
Mitchell3,56945.364,30054.64-731-9.287,869
Monroe4,05828.7510,05771.25-5,999-42.5014,115
Montgomery89625.412,63074.59-1,734-49.183,526
Morgan3,12928.917,69671.09-4,567-42.1810,825
Murray2,02815.6110,96684.39-8,938-68.7812,994
Muscogee45,04962.9926,47337.0118,57625.9871,522
Newton28,32458.0220,49341.987,83116.0448,817
Oconee7,49631.8516,04168.15-8,545-36.3023,557
Oglethorpe2,25931.304,95968.70-2,700-37.407,218
Paulding27,33536.9646,61963.04-19,284-26.0873,954
Peach5,35048.415,70151.59-351-3.1811,051
Pickens2,61217.2512,53282.75-9,920-65.5015,144
Pierce94711.956,98088.05-6,033-76.107,927
Pike1,39114.448,24185.56-6,850-71.129,632
Polk3,32522.3911,52577.61-8,200-55.2214,850
Pulaski1,13830.922,54369.08-1,405-38.163,681
Putnam3,44829.088,29169.94-4,843-40.8511,855
Quitman49744.9460454.61-107-9.671,106
Rabun1,98420.747,47478.11-5,490-57.389,568
Randolph1,67154.361,39145.252809.113,074
Richmond59,12467.9526,78130.7832,34337.1787,016
Rockdale31,24469.9213,01229.1218,23240.8044,686
Schley46220.311,80079.12-1,338-58.812,275
Screven2,66140.153,91659.08-1,255-18.936,628
Seminole1,25432.292,61167.22-1,357-34.943,884
Spalding11,78439.1318,05759.96-6,273-20.8330,116
Stephens2,38520.079,36878.82-6,983-58.7511,885
Stewart1,18259.4080140.2538119.151,990
Sumter6,31852.005,73247.185864.8212,150
Talbot2,11460.021,39239.5272220.503,522
Taliaferro56160.4536038.7920121.66928
Tattnall2,06125.196,05373.97-3,992-48.788,183
Taylor1,38736.132,41862.99-1,031-26.863,839
Telfair1,48734.322,82565.20-1,338-30.884,333
Terrell2,37653.802,00445.383728.424,416
Thomas8,70839.8512,95459.28-4,246-19.4321,853
Tift5,32232.6810,78466.23-5,462-33.5416,283
Toombs2,93926.937,87272.13-4,933-45.2010,914
Towns1,55019.436,38480.01-4,834-60.587,979
Treutlen95230.942,10168.28-1,149-37.343,077
Troup11,57838.5318,14360.38-6,565-21.8530,049
Turner1,41037.182,34961.95-939-24.763,792
Twiggs2,04445.992,37053.33-326-7.344,444
Union2,80118.0012,65181.30-9,850-63.3015,560
Upson4,20132.558,60866.70-4,407-34.1512,905
Walker5,76919.6523,17478.95-17,405-59.2929,354
Walton12,68224.8237,84274.06-25,160-49.2451,095
Ware4,21129.679,86569.51-5,654-39.8414,192
Warren1,46955.411,16643.9830311.432,651
Washington4,73050.014,66349.30670.719,459
Wayne2,68721.039,98778.16-7,300-57.1312,778
Webster63945.9774853.81-109-7.841,390
Wheeler68930.151,58369.28-894-39.122,285
White2,41116.2712,22282.49-9,811-66.2214,816
Whitfield10,67029.0425,63669.77-14,966-40.7336,746
Wilcox86226.272,40373.24-1,541-46.973,281
Wilkes2,16042.952,82356.13-663-13.185,029
Wilkinson2,07543.502,66455.85-589-12.354,770
Worth2,39525.796,83073.56-4,435-47.779,285
Totals2,289,11351.042,195,84148.9693,5502.094,484,296

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[259]

By congressional district

[edit]

Despite losing the statewide runoff, Loeffler won eight of 14 congressional districts.[260]

DistrictLoefflerWarnockElected
Representative
1st56%44%Buddy Carter
2nd43%57%Sanford Bishop
3rd62%38%Drew Ferguson
4th19%81%Hank Johnson
5th13%87%Nikema Williams
6th46%54%Lucy McBath
7th46%54%Carolyn Bourdeaux
8th62%38%Austin Scott
9th77%23%Andrew Clyde
10th60%40%Jody Hice
11th58%42%Barry Loudermilk
12th56%44%Rick W. Allen
13th21%79%David Scott
14th73%27%Marjorie Taylor Greene

Election-related lawsuits

[edit]

Republicans filed two federal and one state lawsuit in December to restrict the January 5 vote. On December 17, JudgeEleanor L. Ross found that plaintiffs lacked standing based on possible future harm to toss out a consent decree regarding signatures on absentee ballot applications. JudgeJames Randal Hall threw out another case that tried to block the use of drop boxes for absentee ballots. A third lawsuit, to restrict the use of drop boxes, was heard in state court on December 24.[261][citation needed]

On December 18, a federal judge threw out a Republican lawsuit alleging that out-of-state residents were voting in the runoff election, as Republican attorney Bill Price had recommended.[262] Another lawsuit was filed against the use of voting machines manufactured byDominion Voting Systems, alleging that election officials are handling mail-in absentee ballots improperly and illegally.[263]

JudgeLeslie Abrams Gardner, sister of Democratic politicianStacey Abrams, of theUnited States District Court for the Middle District of Georgia rejected the attempted purge of 4,000 voters inMuscogee County andBen Hill County, Georgia, on December 29. The ruling means the voters were able to participate in the January 5 runoff election.[264] The ruling was amended to allow provisional voting to prevent election-day challenges.[265]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^abThe American Action Forum is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  2. ^The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden before this poll's sampling period
  3. ^abPoll sponsored by Warnock's campaign.
  4. ^Poll sponsored byAARP.
  5. ^Poll sponsored by Matt Lieberman's campaign
  6. ^This poll's sponsor, DFER, primarily supports Democratic candidates
  7. ^This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  8. ^abcdefghijInternal poll for Collins
  9. ^abcdefPoll is sponsored byOANN, a far-right television news channel.
  10. ^abcThis poll is sponsored by End Citizens United, a PAC which has endorsed Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United court ruling.
  11. ^Steve Phillips, who sponsored this poll, is a senior fellow at the Democratic-leaning Center for American Progress
  12. ^Poll conducted for the Speaker of Georgia's House Republican caucus
  13. ^Internal poll for Loeffler
  14. ^Americas PAC exclusively supports Republican candidates

Voter samples and additional candidates

  1. ^abcdefghijklKey:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^Slowinski (L) with 1%
  3. ^"Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  4. ^abcWith voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^abcdef"Someone else" with 2%
  6. ^Slowinski (L) with 2%
  7. ^"Other candidate" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%; "No one" with 1%
  8. ^abcWith a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  9. ^abcWith a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  10. ^Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other Candidate" with 2%
  11. ^abWould not vote with 1%
  12. ^abcdeIncludes "Refused"
  13. ^Bartell (I), Did not vote, Johnson (R), Johnson-Shealey (D) and "Someone else" with 2%; Dien Winfield (D) with 1%
  14. ^abcd"Someone else" with 0%
  15. ^ab"Some other candidate" with 2%
  16. ^Includes Undecided
  17. ^Fortuin (G), Johnson-Shealey (D) and Taylor (R) with 1%; Bartell (I), Slade (D) and Stovall (I) with 0%; Buckley (I), Grayson (R), Greene (I), Jackson (R), James (D), Slowinski (L) and Winfield (D) with no voters
  18. ^Slowinski (L) with 2%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  19. ^"Someone else" with 1%
  20. ^abcdeAdditional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  21. ^"Other Democratic Candidate" with 2%; "Third Party/Write-in" with 1%; "Other Republican Candidate" with 0%
  22. ^"Other candidate" and Slowinski (L) with 3%; "No one" with 0%
  23. ^Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other" with 2%
  24. ^Slowinski (L) and "Other" with 2%
  25. ^Slowinski (L) with 3%; "Other candidate" with 1%
  26. ^"Other Democratic Candidate" with 3%; "Another Third Party/Write-in" and "Other Republican Candidate" with 1%
  27. ^Would not vote with 1%; "Other candidate" with 0%
  28. ^Johnson-Shealey (D) with 5%; Bartell (I), Dien Winfield (D) and Johnson (R) with 2%; "One of the other candidates" and would not vote with 1%
  29. ^Slowinski (L) with 5%; Johnson (R) and would not vote with 4%; "Another candidate/still undecided" with 3%; Winfield (D) with 2%
  30. ^"TThird-partycandidate" with 1%
  31. ^"Other candidate" with 5%; Slowinski (L) with 3%
  32. ^ab"Other" with 4%; Slowinski (L) with 2%
  33. ^"Other" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
  34. ^ab"Someone else" with 4%
  35. ^All other candidates with 5% or less
  36. ^"Another candidate who qualified to run but isn't listed" with 2%
  37. ^Bartell (I) with 2%; Slowinski (L) and "someone else" with 1%
  38. ^Johnson (R) with 4%; Winfield (D) with 3%; Bartell (I) with 2%; "refused" with 0%
  39. ^Democratic candidates have 31% of the vote combined
  40. ^Bartell with 5%; Johnson (R) with 2%
  41. ^Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  42. ^Archived November 19, 2020, at theWayback Machine
  43. ^"Someone else" with 9%
  44. ^ab"Someone else" with 8%
  45. ^ab"Someone else" with 18%
  46. ^abcLikely Republican primary voters, though there is no exclusively Republican primary for Georgia's special election
  47. ^"Someone else" with 17%
  48. ^"Someone else" with 20%
  49. ^"Someone else" with 13%
  50. ^"Someone else" with 7%
  51. ^"Someone else" with 5%
  52. ^"Someone else" with 6%
  53. ^Listed as "other/undecided"
  54. ^"It is more important for Republicans to have control of the Senate" as opposed to "It is more important for Democrats to have control of the Senate" with 46%
  55. ^"It does not matter which party has control of the Senate" with 7%; Undecided with 4%

Miscellaneous

  1. ^In January 2020, Loeffler was appointed by GovernorBrian Kemp to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of SenatorJohnny Isakson, due to ill health.

References

[edit]
  1. ^Singer, Jeff (August 28, 2019)."Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 8/28".Daily Kos.Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. RetrievedAugust 28, 2019.
  2. ^*"DDHQ Election Results".Decision Desk HQ.Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2021.
  3. ^Bluestein, Greg (January 7, 2021)."Republican Kelly Loeffler concedes defeat to Raphael Warnock".The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. RetrievedJanuary 7, 2021.
  4. ^Slodyosko, Brian (January 6, 2020)."How Warnock won 1 of Georgia's 2 Senate runoffs".Chicago Tribune. Associated Press.Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2021.
  5. ^Martin, Jonathan; Fausset, Richard; Epstein, Reid J. (January 6, 2021)."Jon Ossoff wins in Georgia, ensuring Democrats will control the Senate".The New York Times.Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2021.
  6. ^Cathey, Libby; et al. (January 6, 2021)."ABC News projects Ossoff victory over Perdue".ABC News.Archived from the original on January 6, 2021. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2021.
  7. ^"Ossoff, Warnock on course to take Senate seats with little drama". January 11, 2021.
  8. ^Walker, Amara; Morris, Jason; Kallingal, Mallika (January 8, 2021)."Brad Raffensperger intends to certify results of Georgia's Senate runoffs by January 20".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 10, 2021.
  9. ^Gardner, Amy; Werner, Erica."Georgia certifies Ossoff and Warnock victories, paving way for Democratic control of Senate".The Washington Post.ISSN 0190-8286. RetrievedJanuary 19, 2021.
  10. ^Rogers, Alex; Bradner, Eric; Mattingly, Phil (August 28, 2019)."Georgia Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson to resign at end of year".CNN.Archived from the original on January 7, 2021. RetrievedAugust 28, 2019.
  11. ^Bluestein, Greg (September 18, 2019)."Online 'help wanted' sign sets off Senate scramble in Georgia".Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Archived fromthe original on September 21, 2019. RetrievedSeptember 21, 2019.
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