| Turnout | 59.06% | |||||||||||||||||||
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Hogan: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Jealous: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The2018 Maryland gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018. The date included the election of thegovernor,lieutenant governor, and all members of theMaryland General Assembly. Popular incumbent governorLarry Hogan and Lieutenant GovernorBoyd Rutherford, bothRepublicans, were elected to a second term in a landslide against DemocratBen Jealous, the formerNAACP CEO, and his running mateSusan Turnbull. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state carried byHillary Clinton in the2016 presidential election.
Hogan became the second Republican governor of Maryland to win re-election, and the first sinceTheodore McKeldin in1954.[2] He also became the first Republican to win over 55% of the vote in a statewide election in Maryland since U.S. SenatorCharles Mathias in1980. This was the first election since 1974 in which Maryland simultaneously elected a gubernatorial nominee and a U.S. Senate nominee of opposite parties. This was the first and only Maryland gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes. As of 2025, this is the last time that a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland.
At the presidential level,Maryland is a staunchly Democratic state due to the large number of Democratic voters in theWashington metropolitan area andBaltimore City. Maryland had not seen a Republican presidential candidate win its votes since 1988, and the state had not been within 15% since2004;Hillary Clinton won the state by 26 points overDonald Trump (60% to 34%) in 2016,Barack Obama defeatedMitt Romney by 26 points in 2012 (62% to 36%), and Obama defeatedJohn McCain by 25 points in 2008 (62% to 37%).
Hogan was elected governor in2014, defeating then-lieutenant governorAnthony Brown by a margin of 51% to 47%; the result was considered one of the biggest election upsets that year.[3] Prior to Hogan's victory,Bob Ehrlich, elected in2002, had been the only Republican elected as Governor of Maryland sinceSpiro Agnew. However, Ehrlich was defeated for reelection in2006 byMartin O'Malley and defeated again in2010, when he faced O'Malley in a rematch.
In April 2018, Hogan had a 68% approval rating, the second-highest approval of any governor in the country, only behind GovernorCharlie Baker of Massachusetts, who had a 71% approval rating.[4] Despite the state's Democratic leaning, Hogan had a high approval rating among all partisan groups (65% approval from Democrats, 64% of Independents, and 81% of Republicans).[5]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Larry Hogan (incumbent) | 210,935 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 210,935 | 100.00% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rushern Baker | Valerie Ervin | Ben Jealous | Kevin Kamenetz | Richard Madaleno | Jim Shea | Krish Vignarajah | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[110] | June 4–10, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.5% | 25% | 7% | 23% | – | 9% | 6% | 5% | 2%[a] | 22% |
| OpinionWorks[111] | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 16% | 5% | 16% | – | 4% | 4% | 4% | 7%[b] | 44% |
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 532 | ± 6.0% | 16% | 8% | 21% | – | 6% | 4% | 4% | 2%[c] | 39% |
| Mason-Dixon[113] | February 20–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 26% | – | 14% | 15% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3%[d] | 32% |
| Goucher College[114] | February 12–18, 2018 | 409 | ± 4.8% | 19% | – | 10% | 12% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 6%[115] | 47% |
| Gonzales Research[116] | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 24% | – | 14% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 8%[e] | 33% |
| Mason-Dixon[117] | September 27–30, 2017 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 28% | – | 10% | 11% | 3% | <1% | 1% | 1%[f] | 46% |
| Goucher College[118] | September 14–18, 2017 | 324 | ± 5.4% | 13% | – | 6% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 22%[g] | 44% |

| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ben Jealous | 231,895 | 39.6% | |
| Democratic | Rushern Baker | 171,696 | 29.3% | |
| Democratic | Jim Shea | 48,647 | 8.3% | |
| Democratic | Krish O'Mara Vignarajah | 48,041 | 8.2% | |
| Democratic | Richard Madaleno | 34,184 | 5.8% | |
| Democratic | Kevin Kamenetz/Valerie Ervin | 18,851 | 3.2% | |
| Democratic | Alec Ross | 13,780 | 2.4% | |
| Democratic | Ralph Jaffe | 9,405 | 1.6% | |
| Democratic | James Jones | 9,188 | 1.6% | |
| Total votes | 585,687 | 100.0% | ||
Following the Maryland Green Party's nominating procedure, the delegates of the Coordinating Council, which is the party's State Central Committee, made the decision to nominate the gubernatorial ticket as no other candidate had filed by the party's March 30, 2018, deadline. More than one ticket seeking the nomination would have required the party to conduct a primary, an obligation not mandated by the State Board of Elections for non-principal parties.[121]
| Green State Central Committee Designation[121] April 20 – April 25 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Delegates in favor | Delegates against | Delegates not voting |
| Ian Schlakman / Annie Chambers | 15 | 0 | 5 |
| Candidate | Votes in favor | Votes against | Not voting |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shawn Quinn / Christina Smith | 32 | 1 | 0 |
Larry Hogan andBen Jealous met for their one and only scheduled debate on September 24. The debate was livestreamed in the evening by theMaryland Public Television.[123]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[124] | Likely R | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[125] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[126] | Safe R | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[127] | Likely R | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[128] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[129] | Likely R | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[130] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[131][a] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[132] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[133] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Ben Jealous (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland[134] | October 4–7, 2018 | 648 LV | ± 4.5% | 58% | 38% | 0% | 3% |
| 814 RV | ± 4.0% | 56% | 36% | 0% | 2% | ||
| Gonzales Research[135] | October 1–6, 2018 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 36% | 2%[a] | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[136] | September 24–26, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 37% | 2%[a] | 9% |
| Goucher College[137] | September 11–16, 2018 | 472 | ± 4.5% | 54% | 32% | 2%[a] | 9% |
| Gonzales Research[138] | August 1–8, 2018 | 831 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 36% | 1%[b] | 11% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Jealous)[139] | July 10–14, 2018 | 601 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
| Gonzales Research[110] | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 34% | – | 14% |
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 31% | – | 22% |
| Mason-Dixon[141] | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 50% | 33% | – | 17% |
| Gonzales Research[142] | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 36% | – | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[117] | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 33% | – | 18% |
with Rushern Baker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Rushern Baker (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[110] | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 968 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 39% | 9% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 44% | 31% | 22% |
| Burton Research & Strategies (R)[143] | March 4–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 54% | 29% | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[141] | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
| Gonzales Research[142] | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon[117] | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 39% | 15% |
with Richard Madaleno
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Richard Madaleno (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research[110] | June 4–10, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 36% | 14% |
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 27% | 26% |
| Mason-Dixon[117] | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 30% | 21% |
with Alec Ross
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Alec Ross (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 55% | 31% | 13% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 26% | 26% |
with Jim Shea
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Jim Shea (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 53% | 35% | 13% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 27% | 25% |
with Krish Vignarajah
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Krish Vignarajah (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 54% | 35% | 11% |
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 25% | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College[144] | February 12–17, 2018 | 658 | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
| GBA Strategies (D)[145] | November 14–18, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 35% | – | – |
| OpinionWorks[146] | October 25 – November 7, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 28% | 4% | 24% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland[147] | March 19–22, 2017 | 914 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 36% | 3% | 22% |
| Washington Post/University of Maryland[148] | March 16–19, 2017 | 914 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 37% | 2% | 20% |
with Valerie Ervin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Valerie Ervin (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Maryland[112] | May 29 – June 3, 2018 | 465–497 | ± 6.0–6.5% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
with Kevin Kamenetz
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Kevin Kamenetz (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goucher College[140] | April 14–19, 2018 | 617 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 28% | 23% |
| Burton Research & Strategies (R)[143] | March 4–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 57% | 26% | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[141] | February 20–22, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Gonzales Research[142] | December 27, 2017 – January 5, 2018 | 823 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[117] | September 27–30, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
with John Delaney
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | John Delaney (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[149] | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 29% | 24% |
with Tom Perez
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Larry Hogan (R) | Tom Perez (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[149] | April 15–17, 2016 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Larry Hogan (incumbent) | 1,275,644 | 55.35% | +4.32% | |
| Democratic | Ben Jealous | 1,002,639 | 43.51% | −3.74% | |
| Libertarian | Shawn Quinn | 13,241 | 0.57% | −0.89% | |
| Green | Ian Schlakman | 11,175 | 0.48% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 1,813 | 0.08% | -0.18% | ||
| Total votes | 2,304,512 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republicanhold | |||||
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Hogan carried six of eight congressional districts, including five held by Democrats. This included the district of then-House Minority WhipSteny Hoyer, whom Hogan was defeated by in1992.[151]
| District | Larry Hogan | Ben Jealous | Elected Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 79% | 20% | Andy Harris |
| 2nd | 56% | 43% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
| 3rd | 56% | 43% | John Sarbanes |
| 4th | 40% | 59% | Anthony Brown |
| 5th | 52% | 47% | Steny Hoyer |
| 6th | 59% | 39% | David Trone |
| 7th | 44% | 55% | Elijah Cummings |
| 8th | 53% | 46% | Jamie Raskin |
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)Official campaign websites