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2018 Idaho gubernatorial election

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Idaho gubernatorial election
← 2014
November 6, 2018
2022 →
 
NomineeBrad LittlePaulette Jordan
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote361,661231,081
Percentage59.76%38.19%
County results
Congressional district results
Precinct results
Little:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Jordan:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Butch Otter
Republican

ElectedGovernor

Brad Little
Republican

Elections in Idaho
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The2018 Idaho gubernatorial election took place on November 6 to elect the nextgovernor of Idaho. IncumbentRepublican GovernorButch Otter chose not to run for a fourth term,[1] and the state's primaries were held on May 15.[2]

Former state representativePaulette Jordan was theDemocratic Party's nominee. She was the first Democratic nominee fromNorthern Idaho sinceCecil Andrus, who was first elected governor in1970.[3]

Jordan lost to incumbentlieutenant governorBrad Little by 21.6 percentage points, for a seventh consecutive Republican victory.

A record 605,131 votes were cast for governor in 2018, a 37.6% increase over the previous election in2014(439,830 votes).The previous high was 452,535 votes in2010.

Republican primary

[edit]

Incumbent governorButch Otter chose not to run for reelection for a fourth term in office.[1]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Lieutenant GovernorBrad Little indicated in June 2016 that he would run for governor, a decision described as "early" by theIdaho Statesman.[14] Little was characterized as a politician favored by members of the party establishment, including Otter and U.S. senatorJim Risch.[15]

RepresentativeRaúl Labrador chose to forgoreelection in the1st district in favor of a gubernatorial candidacy. Labrador, a founding member of theFreedom Caucus, was considered the most conservative candidate in the primary.[16] As a candidate, Labrador suggested that he would be open to overrulingMedicaid expansion in the event the state's2018 ballot measure on the issue passed.[17]

Physician andBoise-area property developerTommy Ahlquist, a first time candidate, touted his non-political background and pledged to cut regulations to encourage growth.[18] Ahlquist notably received the support of2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.[19]

Endorsements

[edit]
Tommy Ahlquist
U.S. governors (current and former)
Republican National Committee members
Mayors
Individuals
Individuals
Raúl Labrador
U.S. senators
State legislators (current and former)
Individuals
Political action committees
  • Protect Freedom PAC[27]
Trade associations
  • Inland Pacific Chapter of Associated Builders and Contractors (IPC-ABC)[32]
Organizations
  • Family Policy Alliance of Idaho[33]
  • Idaho Chooses Life[34]
Brad Little
U.S. governors (current and former)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide elected officials (current and former'
State legislators (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Tommy
Ahlquist		Raul
Labrador		Brad
Little		Lisa
Marie		Lawrence
Wasden*		OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates[55]February 26 – March 15, 2018––21%25%17%––6%31%
Dan Jones & Associates[56]November 8–15, 2017619± 3.9%14%17%21%4%4%5%36%
Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador)[57]October 11–12, 2017714± 3.7%21%37%23%–––19%

* Denotes candidates who did not enter the race.

Forum and debates

[edit]
2018 Idaho gubernatorial election Republican primary candidate forum and debates
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanRepublicanRepublican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Tommy AhlquistRaúl LabradorBrad Little
1Apr. 10, 2018Greater Idaho Falls Chamber of Commerce
KIDK
Compass Academy		Todd Kunz[58]PNP
2Apr. 23, 2018Idaho Public TelevisionMelissa Davlin[59]PPP
3May 1, 2018KTVB
Northwest Nazarene University		Dee Sarton[60]PPP

Results

[edit]

Little ultimately won the primary with 37.3% of the vote, with Labrador taking 32.6% and Ahlquist taking 26.2%. Little's campaign performed best in theBoise metropolitan area and agrarian communities in the southwestern part of the state. Labrador performed best in areas in the 1st congressional district, located in thenorthern part of the state. Ahlquist, aMormon, saw a better performance in eastern counties, which have a notableLatter Day Saint (LDS) presence.[61]

Results by county:
Little
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Labrador
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Ahlquist
  •   40–50%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanBrad Little72,51837.3
RepublicanRaúl Labrador63,46032.6
RepublicanTommy Ahlquist50,97726.2
RepublicanLisa Marie3,3901.7
RepublicanSteve Pankey2,7011.4
RepublicanHarley Brown8740.4
RepublicanDalton Cannady5280.3
Total votes194,448100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
A. J. Balukoff
U.S. representatives (former)
Statewide officials (current and former)
State legislators (current and former)
Democratic National Committee officials (current and former)
Local and municipal officials (current and former)
Newspapers
Organizations
Paulette Jordan
U.S. Senator (former)
State legislators (former)
Individuals
Organizations

Debate

[edit]
2018 Idaho gubernatorial election democratic primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkDemocraticDemocratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
A.J. BalukoffPaulette Jordan
1April 23, 2018Idaho Public TelevisionMelissa DavlinPBSPP
2May 1, 2018KTVB
Northwest Nazarene University		Dee SartonYouTubePP

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
Jordan
  •   80–90%
  •   70–80%
  •   60–70%
  •   50–60%
  •   40–50%
Jordan/Balukoff tie
  •   40–50%
Balukoff
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticPaulette Jordan38,48358.4
DemocraticA.J. Balukoff26,40340.1
DemocraticPeter Dill9641.5
Total votes65,850100.0

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Adam Phillips[9]
  • Michael Richardson[5]
  • John Thomas Wiechec[9]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[93]Safe ROctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post[94]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[95]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[96]Safe RNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[97]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[98]Safe RNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos[99]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Fox News[100][a]Likely RNovember 5, 2018
Politico[101]Safe RNovember 5, 2018
Governing[102]Safe RNovember 5, 2018

Debate

[edit]
2018 Idaho gubernatorial election debate
No.DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited W  Withdrawn
Brad LittlePaulette Jordan
1October 15, 2018IdahoPTVMelissa DavlinC-SPANPP

Polling

[edit]
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Brad
Little (R)		Paulette
Jordan (D)		Bev
Boeck (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research[103]November 2–4, 2018838–55%39%3%2%[104]–
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)[105]August 2–5, 2018826± 3.2%36%28%–5%31%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)[106]July 12–15, 20181,061± 2.8%38%28%–7%26%
Dan Jones & Associates[107]June 22 – July 9, 2018606± 4.0%43%31%5%8%[108]13%

Results

[edit]
Idaho gubernatorial election, 2018
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanBrad Little361,66159.77%+6.25%
DemocraticPaulette Jordan231,08138.19%−0.36%
LibertarianBev "Angel" Boeck6,5511.08%−2.99%
ConstitutionWalter L. Bayes5,7870.96%−0.23%
IndependentLisa Marie (write-in)510.01%N/A
Total votes605,131100.00%N/A
Republicanhold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Little won both congressional districts.[109]

DistrictLittleJordanRepresentative
1st63%35%Raúl Labrador (115th Congress)
Russ Fulcher (116th Congress)
2nd56%42%Mike Simpson

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races.

References

[edit]
  1. ^abcRussell, Betsy Z. (October 14, 2014)."Otter on running for 4th term: 'If I did, I'd be running as a bachelor, my wife told me'".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedJuly 7, 2016.
  2. ^Legislatures, National Conference of State."2018 State Primary Election Dates".www.ncsl.org. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  3. ^Richert, Kevin (April 23, 2018)."Democratic Candidates Split on Marijuana Legalization".Idaho Ed News. RetrievedFebruary 14, 2019.
  4. ^Dentzer, Kevin (February 28, 2017)."Ahlquist makes it official: In campaign for governor, he starts 97-town tour this week".Idaho Statesman. RetrievedMarch 1, 2017.
  5. ^abcdefghijkRussell, Betsy Z. (March 10, 2018)."Candidates flock to file for Idaho's May primary election".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedMarch 31, 2018.
  6. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (May 9, 2017)."Idaho Rep. Raul Labrador files to run for governor in 2018".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2018.
  7. ^Richert, Kevin (October 26, 2017)."Christy Perry considers run for Congress".Idaho Education News. RetrievedOctober 30, 2017.
  8. ^Dentzer, Bill (June 28, 2016)."Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run".Idaho Statesman. RetrievedJuly 7, 2016.
  9. ^abcde"Candidate Treasurer List with Mailing Addresses for 2018"(PDF).Idaho Secretary of State. December 21, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2018.
  10. ^Berg, Sven (August 24, 2016)."Fulcher announces he'll run for governor again in 2018".Idaho Statesman. RetrievedAugust 25, 2016.
  11. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (June 15, 2017)."Fulcher drops out of guv race, switches to 1st CD, winning Labrador's endorsement".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedJune 16, 2017.
  12. ^Spence, William L. (February 6, 2016)."Lori Otter says she doesn't plan to seek office".Lewiston Morning Tribune. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2016.
  13. ^Russell, Betsy Z."Wasden to seek another term as Attorney General, not join crowds running for governor, Congress".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedSeptember 8, 2017.
  14. ^Dentzer, Bill (June 29, 2016)."Brad Little, Idaho's governor-in-waiting, commits to 2018 run".Idaho Statesman. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2023.
  15. ^Golshan, Tara (May 16, 2018)."Brad Little, the establishment pick, wins the Republican primary in Idaho's governor's race".Vox. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  16. ^Golshan, Tara (May 14, 2018)."The super-expensive, heated governor's race you aren't paying attention to".Vox. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  17. ^Russell, Betsy (April 26, 2018)."Idaho Rep. Labrador opens door to overturning Medicaid expansion initiative if voters pass it".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  18. ^Moudy, Shannon (September 5, 2017)."Businessman Tommy Ahlquist says Non-Political Background Helps in Governor Race".KLEW. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  19. ^"Mitt Romney endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho governor".AP News. October 25, 2017. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  20. ^Kruesi, Kimberlee (October 25, 2017)."Mitt Romney Endorses Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho Governor".USNews.com. RetrievedNovember 3, 2017.
  21. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (September 19, 2017)."Ahlquist names Damond Watkins as campaign chairman".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2017.
  22. ^"Meridian mayor named co-chairwoman for Ahlquist campaign".Meridian Press. September 19, 2017. Archived fromthe original on September 7, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2017.
  23. ^"Gubernatorial Candidate Dr. Tommy Ahlquist Announces Campaign County Chairs 107 Business, Community & Conservative Leaders Join Campaign Team - Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho".Tommy Ahlquist for Idaho. September 14, 2017. Archived fromthe original on September 14, 2017. RetrievedSeptember 19, 2017.
  24. ^abBetsy Z. Russell (April 30, 2018)."Ahlquist wins endorsement from prominent young Trump backers Candace Owens and Charlie Kirk".The Spokesman-Review.
  25. ^Price, Mike (September 26, 2017)."Olympic gold medalist visits Idaho Falls to campaign for Ahlquist".East Idaho News.
  26. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (November 1, 2017)."Labrador announces Ted Cruz is endorsing him for governor of Idaho in '18".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedNovember 2, 2017.
  27. ^abKruesi, Kimberlee (November 1, 2017)."Labrador Attracts Endorsements in Idaho's Gubernatorial Race".U.S. News & World Report.Associated Press.
  28. ^"Conservative Legislators Endorsement".Labrador for Governor. May 1, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  29. ^"Former Rep. Ken Andrus Backs Raul Labrador".Labrador for Governor. May 9, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  30. ^"Labrador wins variety of endorsements".Idaho Politics Weekly. May 6, 2018.
  31. ^"Labrador Releases Heller Endorsement and 200 Member Coalition".Labrador for Governor. April 20, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  32. ^"IPC-ABC Endorses Raul Labrador for Idaho Governor". Archived fromthe original on June 26, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  33. ^"BREAKING: Family Policy Alliance of Idaho Endorses…".Family Policy Alliance of Idaho. May 10, 2018.
  34. ^"Idaho Chooses Life Endorses Labradorfor Governor".Labrador for Governor. April 26, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  35. ^"Brad Little should be the next governor of Idaho".Idaho State Journal. April 24, 2018. RetrievedMay 5, 2018.
  36. ^"Otter Endorses Little in Idaho Governor's Race".U.S. News & World Report.Associated Press. May 16, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2018.
  37. ^Brown, Nathan (August 25, 2017)."Little to run for governor".MagicValley.com. RetrievedNovember 27, 2017.
  38. ^"Twitter".twitter.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  39. ^abcd"State Finance Organization".Brad Little for Idaho. Archived fromthe original on October 4, 2017. RetrievedFebruary 10, 2018.
  40. ^Dentzer, Bill (June 29, 2016)."Little to run for governor".MagicValley.com. RetrievedNovember 27, 2017.
  41. ^abcd"Brad Little for Governor Campaign Announces Statewide 44 County Campaign Coordinators".Brad Little for Idaho (Press release). September 14, 2017. Archived fromthe original on February 10, 2018. RetrievedNovember 27, 2017.
  42. ^"Primary election endorsements". May 9, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  43. ^abside, Balukoff on Democratic (May 5, 2018)."Endorsements: Little, Balukoff in the primaries for governor". RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  44. ^"Pragmatic and responsible, Brad Little is ready to lead Idaho".Idaho Statesman. October 21, 2018.
  45. ^ab"Brad Little, A.J. Balukoff are best choices for governor". April 29, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  46. ^"Idaho Associated General Contractors Announces its Endorsement".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on April 18, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  47. ^"Idaho cattlemen endorse Little for governor".Capital Press. November 16, 2016.
  48. ^"Idaho Grain Producers Put Their Support Behind Brad Little".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  49. ^"Idaho's Logging Contractors Support Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  50. ^"Idaho Doctors Put their Support Behind Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  51. ^"IDAHO REALTORS ENDORSE BRAD LITTLE".Coeur d'Alene Press. April 19, 2018. Archived fromthe original on May 12, 2018. RetrievedMay 11, 2018.
  52. ^"The Idaho State Dental Association Supports Brad Little to be Idaho's Next Governor".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on May 13, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  53. ^"Small Business PAC Endorses Little for Governor".NFIB. September 10, 2018.
  54. ^"Professional Fire Fighters of Idaho Announce Endorsement".Brad Little for Governor. Archived fromthe original on April 18, 2018. RetrievedMay 12, 2018.
  55. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  56. ^Dan Jones & Associates
  57. ^Magellan Strategies (R-Labrador)Archived December 1, 2017, at theWayback Machine
  58. ^YouTube
  59. ^YouTube
  60. ^YouTube
  61. ^"'Not Pure Enough': An Ultra-Conservative State Nominates a Pragmatist for Governor".Governing. May 16, 2018. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2024.
  62. ^Kruesi, Kimberlee (November 2, 2017)."Idaho Democrat announces another run for governor".KTVB. Archived fromthe original on November 2, 2017. RetrievedNovember 3, 2017.
  63. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (December 7, 2017)."Rep. Paulette Jordan announces she'll run for governor as a Democrat".The Spokesman-Review. RetrievedDecember 8, 2017.
  64. ^Brown, Nathan (May 8, 2017)."Gov's race busy with more than a year till primary".Times-News. RetrievedSeptember 1, 2017.
  65. ^abcdefghi"The three most recent Democratic US Congressmen from Idaho have joined together to endorse AJ Balukoff - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 29, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  66. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  67. ^abc"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  68. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  69. ^abcCynthia Sewell (May 2, 2018)."Senators Jordan and Ward-Engelking; Representative Chew Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". Idaho Statesman. RetrievedAugust 10, 2021.
  70. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  71. ^ab"Two More Idaho State Representatives Endorse A.J. Balukoff for Governor - AJ Balukoff for Governor". March 15, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  72. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  73. ^"AJ Balukoff for Governor"(PDF).AJ Balukoff for Governor. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  74. ^"Facebook".www.facebook.com.
  75. ^"AJ Balukoff for Governor"(PDF).AJ Balukoff for Governor. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  76. ^Russell, Betsy Z. (February 6, 2018)."Rusche endorses Balukoff over Jordan in Dems gubernatorial primary".The Spokesman Review. RetrievedFebruary 22, 2018.
  77. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  78. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  79. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  80. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  81. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  82. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  83. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  84. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  85. ^ab"Endorsements - AJ Balukoff for Governor". Archived fromthe original on April 15, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  86. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  87. ^"A.J. Balukoff for Idaho".www.facebook.com. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  88. ^https://www.opensecrets.org/search?q=campbell%2C+ben&type=donors
  89. ^Locher, John (January 24, 2018)."Cher endorses Paulette Jordan for Idaho governor".Moscow-Pullman Daily News. RetrievedFebruary 20, 2018.
  90. ^abc"Who's With Paulette? - Jordan for Governor". RetrievedAugust 10, 2021.
  91. ^Kruesi, Kimberley (March 15, 2018)."Democratic Governor Candidates Begin Collecting Endorsements".U.S. News & World Report. RetrievedMarch 16, 2018.
  92. ^"Paulette Jordan".Our Revolution. Archived fromthe original on May 15, 2018. RetrievedMay 22, 2018.
  93. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018".The Cook Political Report. RetrievedApril 10, 2021.
  94. ^"The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings".The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  95. ^"2018 Governor Forecast".FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Archived fromthe original on October 18, 2018. RetrievedOctober 17, 2018.
  96. ^"2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections".insideelections.com. RetrievedNovember 15, 2017.
  97. ^"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor".www.centerforpolitics.org. RetrievedNovember 15, 2017.
  98. ^"2018 Governor Races".RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  99. ^"2018 Governor Race Ratings".Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  100. ^"2018 Midterm Power Ranking".Fox News. October 10, 2021.
  101. ^"Politico Race Ratings".Politico.
  102. ^"2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups".www.governing.com. Archived fromthe original on October 21, 2018. RetrievedJuly 18, 2018.
  103. ^Change Research
  104. ^Walter Bayes with 2%
  105. ^Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)
  106. ^Clarity Campaign Labs (D-Idaho Voices for Change Now)
  107. ^Dan Jones & AssociatesArchived September 9, 2018, at theWayback Machine
  108. ^Walter Bayes (C) with 3%, someone else with 5%
  109. ^"Dra 2020".

External links

[edit]

Debates

Official campaign websites

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