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| Turnout | 82.00% [1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Utah | ||||||
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Ballot measures
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The2016 United States presidential election in Utah was held on November 8, 2016, as part of the2016 United States presidential election which was also held in the other 49 states and in theDistrict of Columbia. Voters were asked to pick 6electors to be pledged for a candidate in theElectoral College. The two maintickets of the election were theRepublican one, consisting of businessmanDonald Trump and Indiana GovernorMike Pence, and theDemocratic one, consisting of formerSecretary of StateHillary Clinton and VirginiaSenatorTim Kaine.
On March 22, 2016,[2] in thepresidential primaries, Utah voters expressed their preferences for the Democratic and Republican parties' respective nominees for president. The state uses a system ofsemi-closed primaries, meaning that voters registered with a specific party can vote in that party's primary, while voters who areunaffiliated can vote in the primary of one party of their choosing.Utah was won by Trump, who won the state with 45.5 percent of the vote, the lowest percentage for any Republican sinceGeorge H. W. Bush in1992 and the lowest winning percentage for any presidential candidate since bothBill Clinton andBob Dole in1996. Clinton received 27.5 percent of the vote, and Republican-turned-independent candidateEvan McMullin received 21.5 percent.[3]
Trump's 18.08 point margin was the closest a Democrat has come to winning Utah since 1964, whenLyndon B. Johnson won by 9.73%.[a] This is the worst performance in Utah by a Republican since1964 by margin of victory. Although he never lost the state, Trump never won over 60% of the vote in Utah in any of his three runs, greatly below all other 21st century Republican candidates.
This was due to McMullin's strongthird-party showing limiting Trump to under 50% of the vote; Clinton received a smaller percentage of the popular vote than five other Democrats in this same time period (Barack Obama in2008,Bill Clinton in1996,Michael Dukakis in1988, Jimmy Carter in1976, andHubert Humphrey in1968).
This was one of only three states, the others beingIdaho andVermont, where theLibertarian Party candidateGary Johnson did not obtain third place, as McMullin beat him in Idaho and Utah, and write-in votes forBernie Sanders (who was no longer running for president) beat him in Vermont. Trump also became the first Republican to win the White House without carryingSalt Lake orSummit Counties sinceWilliam McKinley in1896 and1900, respectively. The state was one of 11 (along with the District of Columbia) that shifted towards the Democrats in the 2016 election.
Utah held its presidential caucuses on March 22, 2016.
Four candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential caucus ballot:
| Utah Democratic caucuses, March 22, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 62,992 | 79.21% | 27 | 2 | 29 |
| Hillary Clinton | 16,166 | 20.33% | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| Others | 34 | 0.04% | |||
| Uncommitted | 334 | 0.42% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total | 79,526 | 100% | 33 | 4 | 37 |
| Source:[4] | |||||
Three candidates appeared on the Republican presidential caucus ballot:
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Ted Cruz | 132,904 | 69.46% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| John Kasich | 31,992 | 16.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Donald Trump | 26,434 | 13.82% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 191,330 | 100.00% | 40 | 0 | 40 |
| Source:The Green Papers | |||||
The state of Utah has given its electoral votes to the Republican ticket in every election year since1968 and only once voted for a Democratic candidate in elections since1952 (in1964). The state has a majority of members ofthe Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) population, which on the national level voted 78 percent to 21 percent forMitt Romney in2012.[5] This very heavily contributed to Mitt Romney winning the state by a margin of 73 percent to 25 percent in the2012 election. However,Donald Trump's criticism of Romney's faith on the campaign trail in 2016 angered many Republican voters.[6] Polls suggested that Utah might be a strong state forLibertarian candidateGary Johnson as a protest vote against Trump.[7] As a result,Larry Sabato's online election forecaster,Sabato's Crystal Ball, downgraded their rating of the Utah contest from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" on June 23.[8]
Evan McMullin, a conservative independent candidate, had also been viewed by voters in Utah as another alternative, given that it is also his home state. According to one poll released on October 12, Trump and Clinton were seen as virtually tied in Utah at 26%, with McMullin polling at 22%.[9] McMullin's rise was the result of further Republican backlash against Trump following the release of a controversialvideo from 2005 showing Trump bragging about obscene sexual conduct with women.[10] In a poll conducted by Emerson College from October 17–19 with a sample size of 700 people, McMullin placed first with 31 percent ahead of Trump by a 4 percent margin, who had 27 percent of support, while Clinton polled in third at 24 percent.[11] This was the first conducted statewide opinion poll of the 2016 election where a third-party candidate has placed first.
Although Evan McMullin did not win a majority or a plurality of the vote in any county in Utah, he did win a plurality or a majority of the vote in several election precincts. Six election precincts in Utah cast a simple majority of their votes for Evan McMullin with four being in Utah County while one precinct in Cache County and Salt Lake County[b] cast a simple majority of the vote for McMullin.[12]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[13] | Likely R | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[14] | Lean R | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[15] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[16] | Safe R | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[17] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[19] | Likely R | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[20] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
Donald Trump won almost every poll, except for one poll showing him tied with Hillary Clinton andEvan McMullin, and another showing McMullin with 31% of the vote, ahead of Trump's 27% and Clinton's 24%. The final RCP average showed Trump with 37% to Clinton's 27%, Evan McMullin's 25% and Gary Johnson with 3.5%.[21]
The following candidates were listed on the ballot:
The following were certified by the state as "write-in candidates", which means that votes given to these persons would be counted:
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence | 515,231 | 45.54% | −27.08% | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine | 310,676 | 27.46% | +2.77% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson | 243,690 | 21.54% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson Bill Weld | 39,608 | 3.50% | +2.27% | |
| Green | Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka | 9,438 | 0.83% | +0.46% | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle Scott Bradley | 8,032 | 0.71% | +0.43% | |
| Independent American | Rocky Giordani Farley Anderson | 2,752 | 0.24% | N/A | |
| Independent | Rocky De La Fuente Michael Steinberg | 883 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| Independent | Monica Moorehead Lamont Lilly | 544 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Independent | Alyson Kennedy Osborne Hart | 521 | 0.05% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 55 | 0.00% | |||
| Total votes | 1,131,430 | 100.00% | |||
| County[23] | Donald Trump Republican | Hillary Clinton Democratic | Evan McMullin Unaffiliated | Gary Johnson Libertarian | Jill Stein Green | Darrell Castle Constitution | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Beaver | 1,838 | 73.37% | 264 | 10.54% | 323 | 12.89% | 36 | 1.44% | 10 | 0.40% | 12 | 0.48% | 22 | 0.88% | 1,515[c] | 60.48% | 2,505 |
| Box Elder | 12,230 | 61.53% | 2,282 | 11.48% | 4,257 | 21.42% | 591 | 2.97% | 76 | 0.38% | 210 | 1.06% | 232 | 1.17% | 7,973[c] | 40.11% | 19,878 |
| Cache | 21,139 | 45.25% | 8,563 | 18.33% | 13,695 | 29.31% | 1,630 | 3.49% | 330 | 0.71% | 669 | 1.43% | 692 | 1.48% | 7,444[c] | 15.94% | 46,718 |
| Carbon | 5,275 | 65.95% | 1,717 | 21.47% | 615 | 7.69% | 191 | 2.39% | 41 | 0.51% | 47 | 0.59% | 113 | 1.42% | 3,558 | 44.48% | 7,999 |
| Daggett | 331 | 69.39% | 77 | 16.14% | 44 | 9.22% | 17 | 3.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 4 | 0.84% | 4 | 0.84% | 254 | 53.25% | 477 |
| Davis | 62,219 | 44.35% | 28,776 | 20.51% | 39,735 | 28.32% | 5,390 | 3.84% | 864 | 0.62% | 883 | 0.63% | 2,421 | 1.72% | 22,484[c] | 16.03% | 140,288 |
| Duchesne | 5,508 | 78.82% | 500 | 7.16% | 730 | 10.45% | 107 | 1.53% | 18 | 0.26% | 68 | 0.97% | 57 | 0.82% | 4,778[c] | 68.37% | 6,988 |
| Emery | 3,425 | 79.37% | 380 | 8.81% | 362 | 8.39% | 71 | 1.65% | 3 | 0.07% | 15 | 0.35% | 59 | 1.37% | 3,045 | 70.56% | 4,315 |
| Garfield | 1,606 | 67.96% | 358 | 15.15% | 286 | 12.10% | 61 | 2.58% | 16 | 0.68% | 3 | 0.13% | 33 | 1.39% | 1,248 | 52.81% | 2,363 |
| Grand | 1,975 | 42.93% | 1,960 | 42.60% | 281 | 6.11% | 180 | 3.91% | 109 | 2.37% | 10 | 0.22% | 86 | 1.87% | 15 | 0.33% | 4,601 |
| Iron | 11,561 | 64.84% | 2,450 | 13.74% | 2,752 | 15.43% | 540 | 3.03% | 102 | 0.57% | 173 | 0.97% | 253 | 1.41% | 8,809[c] | 49.41% | 17,831 |
| Juab | 2,827 | 66.97% | 442 | 10.47% | 762 | 18.05% | 72 | 1.71% | 14 | 0.33% | 44 | 1.04% | 60 | 1.42% | 2,065[c] | 48.92% | 4,221 |
| Kane | 2,265 | 64.02% | 741 | 20.94% | 352 | 9.95% | 86 | 2.43% | 31 | 0.88% | 15 | 0.42% | 48 | 1.35% | 1,524 | 43.08% | 3,538 |
| Millard | 3,860 | 73.26% | 431 | 8.18% | 719 | 13.65% | 108 | 2.05% | 6 | 0.11% | 99 | 1.88% | 46 | 0.86% | 3,141[c] | 59.61% | 5,269 |
| Morgan | 3,188 | 61.05% | 577 | 11.05% | 1,198 | 22.94% | 142 | 2.72% | 11 | 0.21% | 68 | 1.30% | 38 | 0.73% | 1,990[c] | 38.11% | 5,222 |
| Piute | 626 | 85.75% | 47 | 6.44% | 36 | 4.93% | 11 | 1.51% | 1 | 0.14% | 5 | 0.68% | 4 | 0.55% | 579 | 79.31% | 730 |
| Rich | 797 | 71.29% | 104 | 9.30% | 174 | 15.56% | 21 | 1.88% | 1 | 0.09% | 10 | 0.89% | 11 | 0.99% | 623[c] | 55.73% | 1,118 |
| Salt Lake | 138,043 | 32.58% | 175,863 | 41.50% | 79,880 | 18.85% | 16,306 | 3.85% | 4,965 | 1.17% | 2,047 | 0.48% | 6,639 | 1.57% | −37,820 | −8.92% | 423,743 |
| San Juan | 2,645 | 47.80% | 2,042 | 36.90% | 486 | 8.78% | 165 | 2.98% | 47 | 0.85% | 45 | 0.81% | 104 | 1.88% | 603 | 10.90% | 5,534 |
| Sanpete | 6,673 | 65.12% | 1,061 | 10.35% | 2,038 | 19.89% | 186 | 1.82% | 30 | 0.29% | 139 | 1.36% | 120 | 1.17% | 4,635[c] | 45.23% | 10,247 |
| Sevier | 6,740 | 77.52% | 695 | 7.99% | 916 | 10.53% | 175 | 2.01% | 29 | 0.33% | 67 | 0.77% | 73 | 0.84% | 5,824[c] | 66.99% | 8,695 |
| Summit | 7,333 | 35.11% | 10,503 | 50.29% | 1,786 | 8.55% | 756 | 3.62% | 170 | 0.81% | 44 | 0.21% | 293 | 1.40% | −3,170 | −15.18% | 20,885 |
| Tooele | 11,169 | 50.79% | 4,573 | 20.79% | 4,769 | 21.69% | 783 | 3.56% | 182 | 0.83% | 191 | 0.87% | 202 | 0.92% | 6,400[c] | 29.10% | 21,992 |
| Uintah | 9,810 | 76.26% | 995 | 7.73% | 1,496 | 11.63% | 275 | 2.14% | 43 | 0.33% | 129 | 1.00% | 116 | 0.90% | 8,314[c] | 64.63% | 12,864 |
| Utah | 102,182 | 50.18% | 28,522 | 14.01% | 60,532 | 29.72% | 6,437 | 3.16% | 1,030 | 0.51% | 1,994 | 0.98% | 2,945 | 1.44% | 41,650[c] | 20.46% | 203,642 |
| Wasatch | 6,115 | 49.85% | 3,063 | 24.97% | 2,315 | 18.87% | 409 | 3.33% | 70 | 0.57% | 103 | 0.84% | 191 | 1.56% | 3,052 | 24.88% | 12,266 |
| Washington | 42,650 | 68.38% | 10,288 | 16.49% | 6,565 | 10.53% | 1,473 | 2.36% | 290 | 0.46% | 459 | 0.74% | 646 | 1.04% | 32,362 | 51.89% | 62,371 |
| Wayne | 966 | 67.74% | 271 | 19.00% | 135 | 9.47% | 18 | 1.26% | 12 | 0.84% | 14 | 0.98% | 10 | 0.70% | 695 | 48.74% | 1,426 |
| Weber | 40,235 | 46.78% | 23,131 | 26.89% | 16,451 | 19.13% | 3,371 | 3.92% | 937 | 1.09% | 465 | 0.54% | 1,416 | 1.64% | 17,104 | 19.89% | 86,006 |
| Totals | 515,231 | 45.05% | 310,676 | 27.16% | 243,690 | 21.31% | 39,608 | 3.46% | 9,438 | 0.83% | 8,032 | 0.70% | 17,057 | 1.49% | 204,555 | 17.89% | 1,143,732 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold
|
Trump won all four congressional districts.[25]
| District | Trump | Clinton | McMullin | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49.7% | 22.4% | 22.3% | Rob Bishop |
| 2nd | 46.0% | 32.0% | 16.9% | Chris Stewart |
| 3rd | 47.2% | 23.3% | 24.5% | Jason Chaffetz |
| 4th | 39.1% | 32.4% | 22.5% | Mia Love |
Utah had the largest swing to the left of any state in 2016, due to beingone of the most highly educated states in the country and itsmajority-Mormon population being strongly negatively disposed to voting for Trump. Some of the largest leftward shifts in the country occurred in highly educatedSalt Lake City metropolitan area counties (see the map), though most of them still voted for Trump by diminished margins.[26] Although Trump won Utah in all three of his elections, he never won over 60% of the vote in any of them, greatly below those of prior Republican nominees.
Utah gave theRepublican nominee a 45 percent plurality and thus awarded him sixelectoral votes. This was the lowest percent of the vote Trump received in any state that he won in 2016.[27][28] Trump received a much lower percentage of the vote in Utah than didMitt Romney in2012.[29] In particular, Trump underperformed Romney by over 30 percentage points in theProvo-Orem,Logan, andOgdenmetropolitan areas. Meanwhile, Clinton improved on Obama's performance in all of these areas.[30] Trump received only 45 percent of the vote among Utah members of the LDS Church, barely half the proportion that Romney won in 2012. This was also much lower than the 61 percent of the LDS Church's vote Trump received nationally.[31]
McMullin's 21.3 percent of the vote is the strongest third-party performance in any state sinceRoss Perot during the1992 presidential election.[d][32][33] He finished second ahead of Clinton in fifteen of Utah's twenty-nine counties, becoming the first third-party candidate since Perot to outpoll a major party candidate in any county nationwide, and only the fifth since 1928 to do so in any non-Southern county.[e] InUtah County, he received almost thirty percent of the vote, about twice as much as Clinton and more than any non-Republican presidential candidate since1968.[34] Had McMullin won Utah, he would have become the first nationally nonpartisan candidate sinceGeorge Washington to win a state in 224 years since Washington's reelection in1792,[f] and ultimately the first nonpartisan candidate to win a state west of theMississippi River. Due to McMullin's strong showing, Trump's margin of victory in Utah marked a leftward swing by 29.85%, the strongest such swing in 2016.
As of the2024 election, this is the most recent election whereGrand County voted Republican.
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