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2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary

← 2012
March 1, 2016 (2016-03-01)
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50 pledged delegates to the
2016 Republican National Convention
 
CandidateDonald TrumpTed Cruz
Home stateNew YorkTexas
Delegate count3613
Popular vote373,721181,479
Percentage43.42%21.09%

 
CandidateMarco RubioBen Carson
Home stateFloridaVirginia
Delegate count10
Popular vote160,60688,094
Percentage18.66%10.24%

County results
Congressional district results
  Donald Trump
  30–40%
  40–50%
  50–60%
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The2016 Alabama Republican presidential primary took place on March 1, 2016. This was the fifth primary held in the 2016 Republican primary.Donald Trump won the primary handily. The election was also held onSuper Tuesday. Trump eventually won the Republican primary. He was electedPresident of the United States on November 8, 2016, againstHillary Clinton.

Ahead of the primary, Alabama was considered one of Donald Trump's strongest states.[1] Trump enjoyed the endorsement of SenatorJeff Sessions,[2] who would later join hisDepartment of Justice asAttorney General. Sessions was Trump's first endorsement in the U.S. Senate.

Candidates

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Donald Trump
U.S. Senators

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll

aggregation

Dates

administered

Dates

updated

Marco Rubio
Republican
Donald Trump
Republican
Ted Cruz
Republican
Margin
RealClearPolitics[4]until March 1, 2016March 1, 201620.3%38.0%14.7%Trump +17.7
FiveThirtyEight[5]until March 1, 2016March 1, 201620.4%43.4%17.2%Trump +23.0
Poll sourceDate1st2nd3rdOther
Primary results[6]March 1, 2016Donald Trump43.42%Ted Cruz21.09%Marco Rubio18.66%Ben Carson 10.24%,John Kasich 4.43%,Jeb Bush 0.46%,Mike Huckabee 0.30%,Rand Paul 0.22%,Chris Christie 0.10%,Rick Santorum 0.07%,Carly Fiorina 0.06%,Lindsey Graham 0.03%
SurveyMonkey[7]

Margin of error: ± ?% Sample size: 741

February 22–29, 2016Donald Trump
47%
Ted Cruz

18%

Marco Rubio

14%

Ben Carson 9%, John Kasich 3%, Undecided 9%
Monmouth University[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.6%

Sample size: 450

February 25–28, 2016Donald Trump
42%
Marco Rubio

19%

Ted Cruz

16%

Ben Carson 11%, John Kasich 5%, Undecided 7%
Opinion Savvy[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.6% Sample size: 460

February 25–26, 2016Donald Trump
35.8%
Marco Rubio

23.0%

Ted Cruz

16.2%

Ben Carson 10.5%, John Kasich 7.5%, Undecided 7.0%
AL.com[10]

Margin of error: ± 4.5% Sample size: 500

December 10–13, 2015Donald Trump
35%
Ted Cruz

15%

Marco Rubio

12%

Ben Carson 12%, Jeb Bush 4%, Mike Huckabee 4%, Chris Christie 3%, John Kasich 2%, Carly Fiorina 1%, Rand Paul <1%, Rick Santorum <1%, Lindsey Graham <1%
Gravis Marketing[11]

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 1616

September 3, 2015Donald Trump
38%
Ben Carson

16.7%

Jeb Bush

4.9%

Ted Cruz 4.1%, Mike Huckabee 2.7%, Marco Rubio 2.3%, Carly Fiorina 2.3%, Rand Paul 1.5%, John Kasich 1.3%, Scott Walker 1.1%, Chris Christie 0.9%, Rick Santorum 0.4%, Rick Perry 0.3%, Bobby Jindal 0.3%, Lindsey Graham 0.1%, unsure 23.2%
News-5/Strategy Research[12]

Margin of error: ± 2%

Sample size: 3500

August 11, 2015Donald Trump
30%
Jeb Bush

15%

Ben Carson

11%

Marco Rubio 11%, Mike Huckabee 8%, Carly Fiorina 8%, Ted Cruz 7.5%, Scott Walker 3%, Other 5%
Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage[13]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%

Sample size: 481

August 2–3, 2015Donald Trump
37.6%
Ben Carson

14.6%

Jeb Bush

11.8%

Mike Huckabee 7.9%, Ted Cruz 4.5%, Scott Walker 3.8%, Chris Christie 3.2%, Marco Rubio 2.6%, Rand Paul 2.2%, Bobby Jindal 2.0%, John Kasich 1.4%, Rick Santorum 1.2%, Rick Perry 1.0%, Lindsey Graham 0.7%, Carly Fiorina 0.5%, George Pataki 0.0%, Someone else 1.9%, Undecided 3.1%
Cygnal[14]

Margin of error: ± 3.42%

Sample size: 821

July 7–8, 2014Jeb Bush
19.8%
Ben Carson

12.6%

Rand Paul

10.5%

Chris Christie 8.8%, Rick Perry 7.2%, Ted Cruz 5.6%, Rick Santorum 5.3%, Bobby Jindal 3.9%, Scott Walker 3.6%,Undecided 22.6%

Results

[edit]
Alabama Republican primary, March 1, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump373,72143.42%36036
Ted Cruz181,47921.09%13013
Marco Rubio160,60618.66%101
Ben Carson88,09410.24%000
John Kasich38,1194.43%000
Uncommitted7,9530.92%000
Jeb Bush(withdrawn)3,9740.46%000
Mike Huckabee(withdrawn)2,5390.30%000
Rand Paul(withdrawn)1,8950.22%000
Chris Christie(withdrawn)8580.10%000
Rick Santorum(withdrawn)6170.07%000
Carly Fiorina(withdrawn)5440.06%000
Lindsey Graham(withdrawn)2530.03%000
Unprojected delegates:000
Total:860,652100.00%50050
Source:The Green Papers

Results by county

[edit]
CountyTrumpCruzRubioCarsonKasichUncommittedBushHuckabeeOther
Autauga44.57%20.48%14.75%14.57%3.48%1.01%0.47%0.26%0.40%
Baldwin46.87%17.02%19.26%8.39%5.93%1.38%0.45%N/A0.70%
Barbour50.16%17.77%14.62%12.26%3.6%0.61%0.3%0.26%0.41%
Bibb49.46%25.45%11.18%9.89%2.11%0.76%0.43%0.38%0.35%
Blount48.75%24.39%12.15%10.05%2.22%1.12%0.37%0.51%0.42%
Bullock56.50%16.97%11.55%8.48%4.15%0.54%1.26%0.18%0.36%
Butler53.78%16.68%13.37%11.77%2.69%0.53%0.66%N/A0.53%
Calhoun45.06%19.43%16.32%11.83%4.78%1.04%0.64%0.36%0.53%
Chambers47.52%20.11%13.04%13.07%3.68%0.96%0.79%0.26%0.57%
Cherokee52.10%17.23%15.19%10.01%2.83%1.29%0.37%0.54%0.43%
Chilton49.43%21.78%13.44%10.75%2.04%1.10%0.59%0.48%0.38%
Choctaw49.93%21.05%14.70%7.89%3.17%1.26%0.93%0.51%0.56%
Clarke50.22%19.28%17.48%8.92%2.71%0.41%0.33%0.39%0.26%
Clay47.48%20.89%12.49%12.25%3.09%1.60%1.06%0.52%0.62%
Cleburne48.30%21.13%13.62%9.95%2.41%1.64%1.55%0.57%0.82%
Coffee41.40%23.37%15.52%13.16%3.4%1.32%0.66%0.38%0.64%
Colbert47.45%19.62%17.68%10.89%3.05%0.54%N/AN/A0.77%
Conecuh59.02%15.96%10.82%10.51%1.30%0.84%0.61%0.46%0.46%
Coosa55.32%19.56%10.81%9.02%2.96%0.99%0.45%0.27%0.63%
Covington48.14%18.51%13.33%13.33%3.37%1.56%0.81%0.43%0.51%
Crenshaw54.50%21.93%9.11%10.42%2.55%0.51%0.44%N/A0.55%
Cullman50.65%20.25%13.49%10.96%2.66%0.800.37%0.31%0.51%
Dale45.28%21.90%13.02%12.54%3.63%1.76%0.61%0.61%0.66%
Dallas59.70%20.66%8.68%5.25%2.63%1.48%0.91%0.57%0.11%
DeKalb47.59%16.39%21.60%9.79%2.47%1.01%0.39%0.39%0.37%
Elmore47.49%18.35%13.43%14.90%3.58%0.91%0.54%0.29%0.51%
Escambia49.33%18.00%17.14%10.24%3.40%0.56%0.49%0.37%0.47%
Etowah46.09%20.75%16.79%11.19%3.27%0.74%0.41%0.28%0.49%
Fayette49.86%20.97%13.35%9.81%2.49%1.77%0.50%0.88%0.36%
Franklin51.47%21.29%13.42%9.26%2.55%0.72%0.33%0.48%0.48%
Geneva48.62%23.73%12.99%9.26%2.30%1.31%0.66%0.55%0.59%
Greene53.85%21.61%12.09%6.96%3.66%N/A0.73%0.37%0.74%
Hale52.07%24.98%11.74%7.77%2.12%0.53%N/A0.26%0.53%
Henry46.79%22.28%14.36%11.47%2.81%1.05%0.55%0.29%0.39%
Houston40.39%22.56%18.19%11.43%4.13%1.66%0.68%0.44%0.53%
Jackson49.89%16.37%16.90%10.82%2.83%2.00%0.37%0.44%0.40%
Jefferson35.02%23.82%24.67%8.92%6.09%0.55%0.36%N/A0.58%
Lamar50.43%19.26%12.97%9.57%2.87%2.25%0.78%1.03%0.83%
Lauderdale42.14%18.36%18.69%12.05%5.52%1.66%0.36%0.53%0.69%
Lawrence52.89%17.53%13.53%10.74%2.87%0.93%0.55%0.41%0.55%
Lee32.96%23.17%22.50%11.72%7.11%0.98%0.61%0.35%0.59%
Limestone43.03%21.39%18.85%10.87%3.90%0.89%0.37%N/A0.70%
Lowndes59.52%16.31%9.88%10.48%3.10%0.36%N/AN/A0.36%
Macon47.91%19.78%12.38%12.79%5.25%0.67%0.54%0.54%0.13%
Madison36.18%20.69%26.03%9.58%5.94%0.59%0.31%N/A0.69%
Marengo53.95%21.17%11.79%7.89%2.41%1.21%0.93%0.28%0.37%
Marion52.92%19.15%13.91%8.89%2.52%0.77%0.56%0.60%0.68%
Marshall49.51%15.12%20.56%9.86%3.23%0.69%0.30%0.29%0.44%
Mobile45.22%21.41%18.93%7.71%4.59%0.93%0.49%N/A0.73%
Monroe52.06%17.42%15.78%9.87%2.86%0.50%0.53%0.53%0.45%
Montgomery39.42%17.59%20.85%12.65%7.30%0.83%0.64%N/A0.73%
Morgan44.59%19.73%18.31%11.40%4.53%0.50%0.25%0.27%0.42%
Perry51.73%32.80%8.80%4.00%0.53%1.33%0.53%0.27%N/A
Pickens44.0.5%25.74%13.81%11.31%2.54%0.63%0.70%0.98%0.23%
Pike46.02%20.15%14.79%12.81%3.16%1.23%0.79%0.40%0.66%
Randolph51.59%20.65%12.83%9.36%2.92%0.94%0.77%0.55%0.39%
Russell47.45%27.03%12.31%7.92%2.82%1.04%0.53%N/A0.90%
St. Clair44.60%26.88%13.42%10.86%2.69%0.53%0.41%N/A0.61%
Shelby34.35%26.37%22.95%9.42%5.03%0.83%0.37%N/A0.67%
Sumter59.36%15.90%13.78%7.42%1.41%0.35%1.41%0.35%N/A
Talladega51.05%19.98%13.56%9.54%3.80%0.71%0.59%0.35%0.40%
Tallapoosa52.78%15.01%14.60%11.40%4.20%0.53%0.62%0.27%0.58%
Tuscaloosa37.46%25.05%20.37%10.64%4.44%0.88%0.41%0.29%0.44%
Walker55.11%20.37%10.84%8.97%2.37%1.17%0.46%0.32%0.40%
Washington53.78%21.82%15.31%6.43%1.14%0.85%N/AN/A0.68%
Wilcox54.36%21.59%12.12%8.33%2.27%N/A0.57%0.38%0.38%
Winston56.12%18.01%11.85%9.02%2.73%0.90%0.45%0.37%0.54%
TOTAL43.42%21.09%18.66%10.24%4.43%0.92%0.46%0.30%0.48%
[15]

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won all 7 congressional districts.[16]

DistrictTrumpCruzRubio
1st46%19%19%
2nd46%21%15%
3rd44%21%16%
4th49%19%16%
5th40%20%22%
6th37%25%22%
7th43%23%18%

Analysis

[edit]

According toPew Research, Alabama's Republican electorate has the second-highest proportion ofwhiteEvangelicals of anySuper Tuesday state, at 63% of Republican voters.[17]

Donald Trump won the Alabama primary in alandslide due to support from Evangelical primary voters. Trump carried 43% of Evangelicals compared to 22% for Ted Cruz, according toexit polls byEdison Research.[18] Many pundits were perplexed by Trump's dominance amongculturally conservativeSouthern whites who were expected to view him asimmoral, but he benefitted from voters'racial, cultural, and economic angst that mattered more than sharedvalues.[19]

References

[edit]
  1. ^Cox, Amanda; Katz, Josh; Quealy, Kevin (March 1, 2016)."Who Will Win Super Tuesday? Live Estimates of Tonight's Final Republican Delegate Count".The New York Times.ISSN 0362-4331. RetrievedJune 21, 2022.
  2. ^Stokols, Eli."Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Trump".POLITICO. RetrievedMay 6, 2019.
  3. ^Diamond, Jeremy (February 29, 2016)."Sen. Jeff Sessions endorses Donald Trump".CNN. RetrievedSeptember 9, 2023.
  4. ^RealClearPolitics
  5. ^FiveThirtyEight
  6. ^Primary results
  7. ^"Trump's Lead Looks Steady in Run-Up to Super Tuesday".SurveyMonkey. Archived fromthe original on March 12, 2016. RetrievedMarch 1, 2016.
  8. ^"ALABAMA and OKLAHOMA: TRUMP LEADS IN BOTH CLINTON LEADS IN AL, SANDERS IN OK"(PDF).Monmouth University Poll. Archived fromthe original(PDF) on March 5, 2016. RetrievedMarch 1, 2016.
  9. ^"Alabama Republican Presidential Primary Poll"(PDF).Opinion Savvy. RetrievedFebruary 27, 2016.
  10. ^"Poll shows Trump and Cruz in lead in Alabama GOP primary race".AL.com. RetrievedJanuary 23, 2016.
  11. ^Gravis Marketing
  12. ^News-5/Strategy ResearchArchived August 13, 2015, at theWayback Machine
  13. ^Opinion Savvy/Insider Advantage
  14. ^Cygnal
  15. ^Source
  16. ^"Certification of Results"(PDF).www.sos.alabama.com. RetrievedOctober 14, 2023.
  17. ^Lipka, Michael."A closer look at religion in the Super Tuesday states".Pew Research Center. RetrievedJune 11, 2022.
  18. ^"2016 Election Center".CNN. RetrievedJune 11, 2022.
  19. ^Maxwell, Angie (December 30, 2020)."Why Trump Became a 'Confederate' President".The Forum.18 (4):493–529.doi:10.1515/for-2020-2107.ISSN 1540-8884.
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