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2012 United States Senate election in Nevada

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See also:2012 United States Senate elections
2012 United States Senate election in Nevada
← 2006
November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06)
2018 →
Turnout57.1% (voting eligible)[1]
 
NomineeDean HellerShelley Berkley
PartyRepublicanDemocratic
Popular vote457,656446,080
Percentage45.87%44.71%
County results
Congressional district results
Heller:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Berkley:     40–50%     50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Dean Heller[a]
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dean Heller
Republican

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The2012 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, concurrently withelections to theUnited States Senate in other states,elections to theUnited States House of Representatives, and the2012 presidential election. The primary election was held on June 12, 2012.

Incumbent Republican U.S. SenatorDean Heller, who was appointed to his seat in May 2011 following the resignation of SenatorJohn Ensign, was narrowly elected to a full term over RepresentativeShelley Berkley, despite PresidentBarack Obama carrying the state by 6.7% in theconcurrent presidential election. As a result, Heller became the only Republican Senate candidate in 2012 to win in a state that was lost by the Republican presidential candidate. With a margin of 1.2%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 Senate election cycle, behind onlythe election in North Dakota. As of 2025, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Nevada.

Background

[edit]
Main article:John Ensign scandal

Ensign was re-elected to theUnited States Senate in 2006 againstJack Carter, son of former presidentJimmy Carter, 55% to 41%. His re-election campaign was expected to be complicated after it was revealed in 2009 that he had been involved in an extramarital affair with the wife of one of his campaign staffers, allegedly made payments to the woman's family and arranged work for her husband to cover himself.[2][3]

TheSenate Ethics Committee was to investigate Ensign, and his poll numbers declined significantly.[4][5] There was speculation that he might resign before the election, but he initially said he would run for reelection.[6] On March 7, 2011, Ensign announced that he would not seek reelection,[7] and on April 22, he announced that he would resign effective May 3.[8]

Nevada GovernorBrian Sandoval appointed U.S. Representative Dean Heller to fill the vacancy created by Ensign's resignation. Heller took office on May 9, 2011.[9]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. senator, former U.S. representative, former Nevada secretary of state and former state assemblyman[10][11]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Sherry Brooks, retired secretary[12]
  • Richard Charles[12]
  • Eddie Hamilton, retired auto executive and perennial candidate[12]
  • Carlo Poliak, sanitation worker and perennial candidate[12]
  • David Lory Vanderbeek, marriage and family therapist[12]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling

Primary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sharron
Angle		John
Chachas		John
Ensign		Dean
Heller		Brian
Krolicki		Sue
Lowden		Danny
Tarkanian		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17]January 3–5, 2011400±4.9%9%5%20%30%6%12%10%8%

Appointment preference

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Sue
Lowden		Brian
Sandoval		Danny
Tarkanian		Undecided
Mason-Dixon/LVJR[18]October 8, 20094%24%14%17%17%21%

Primaries with Ensign

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign		Dean
Heller		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[19]October 7–9, 2010400±4.9%45%37%––18%
Public Policy Polling[17]January 3–5, 2011400±4.9%34%52%––13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign		Brian
Krolicki		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[19]October 7–9, 2010400±4.9%55%27%––18%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
RepublicanDean Heller (incumbent)88,95886.3
RepublicanSherry Brooks5,3565.2
None of These Candidates3,3583.3
RepublicanEddie "In Liberty" Hamilton2,6282.6
RepublicanRichard Charles2,2952.2
RepublicanCarlo "Nakusa" Poliak5120.5
Total votes103,107100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Shelley
Berkley		Byron
Georgiou		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[28]April 21–24, 2011300±5.7%65%8%––27%
Public Policy Polling[29]July 28–31, 2011400±4.9%71%6%––23%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Berkley—80-90%
  Berkley—70-80%
  Berkley—60-70%
  Berkley—50-60%
  Berkley—40-50%
Democratic primary results[20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
DemocraticShelley Berkley62,08179.5
DemocraticNancy Price4,2105.4
DemocraticSteve Brown3,9985.1
None of These Candidates3,6374.7
DemocraticBarry Ellsworth2,4913.2
DemocraticLouis Macias1,7142.2
Total votes78,131100

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

On July 9, theUnited States House Committee on Ethics voted unanimously to form an investigative subcommittee to see whether Berkley used her official position to advocate for policy that benefited her family's financial situation.[31] More specifically, Berkley was accused of pushing healthcare legislation that would benefit her husband's medical practice as well as she was blamed for her efforts to block the closure of a kidney transplant center where her husband was employed.[32]

Debates

[edit]

The first Berkley-Heller debate was on September 27, 2012. They met again in Las Vegas on October 11 and onJon Ralston's "Face to Face" program on October 15.

Fundraising

[edit]
Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Dean Heller (R)$8,447,489$6,510,874$1,936,618$0
Shelley Berkley (D)$8,779,074$8,947,424$924,918$0
Source:Federal Election Commission[33]

Top contributors

[edit]

[34]

Shelly BerkleyContributionDean HellerContribution
EMILY's List$93,049Las Vegas Sands$43,750
NORPAC$59,750MGM Resorts International$35,500
MGM Resorts International$53,700Alliance Resource Partners$34,500
DaVita Inc.$49,300Crow Holdings$30,000
Diamond Resorts$44,000Elliott Management Corporation$29,413
Cantor Fitzgerald$27,000Brady Industries$25,000
Caesars Entertainment$26,000Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
Fresenius Medical Care$24,500Wynn Resorts$22,500
Brownstein Hyatt Farber Schreck$23,650Southwest Gas$21,800
Station Casinos$20,200Bank of America$20,500

Top industries

[edit]

[citation needed]

Shelley BerkleyContributionDean HellerContribution
Lawyers/law firms$607,407Leadership PACs$379,718
Pro-Israel$384,580Retired$300,560
Health professionals$369,954Financial Institutions$217,084
Women's issues$309,817Real estate$206,362
Leadership PACs$292,500Casinos/gambling$205,832
Retired$281,490Oil & gas$187,500
Real estate$261,779Insurance$182,155
Financial institutions$228,393Lobbyists$159,812
Casinos/gambling$227,350Mining$149,745
Lobbyists$175,147Health professionals$132,450

Polling

[edit]
%support01020304050602011/01/052012/07/172012/10/082012/11/04BerkleyOther/UndecidedHellerOpinion polling for the 2012 United States S...
Viewsource data.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dean
Heller (R)		Shelley
Berkley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%51%38%—16%
Public Policy Polling[36]April 21–24, 2011491±4.4%47%43%—10%
Public Policy Polling[37]July 28–31, 2011601±4.0%46%43%—12%
Public Policy Polling[38]October 20–23, 2011500±4.4%45%45%—10%
Cannon Survey Center[39]December 12–20, 2011600±4.0%43%44%—6.9%
Rasmussen Reports[40]March 19, 2012500±4.5%47%40%2%11%
Public Policy Polling[41]March 29 – April 1, 2012553±4.2%46%43%—12%
Rasmussen Reports[42]April 30, 2012500±4.5%51%40%2%8%
NBC News/Marist[43]May 22–24, 20121,040±3.0%46%44%—10%
Public Policy Polling[44]June 7–10, 2012500±4.4%44%43%—13%
Magellan Strategies[45]July 16–17, 2012665±3.8%45%42%—13%
Rasmussen Reports[46]July 24, 2012500±4.5%51%42%2%5%
LVRJ/Survey USA[47]August 16–21, 2012869±3.4%44%39%9%8%
Public Policy Polling[48]August 23–26, 2012831±3.4%47%45%—8%
Rasmussen Reports[49]September 18, 2012500±4.5%42%41%4%12%
Public Policy Polling[50]September 18–20, 2012501±4.4%44%48%—8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[51]September 23–25, 2012984±3.1%49%43%1%6%
We Ask America[52]September 25–27, 20121,152±3.1%45%45%—10%
Gravis Marketing[53]October 3, 20121,006±3.1%53%36%—12%
Precision Opinion[54]October 6, 20121,521±2.5%45%43%—12%
LVRJ/Survey USA[55]October 3–8, 20121,222±2.9%47%39%8%6%
Rasmussen Reports[56]October 8, 2012500±4.5%48%45%3%4%
Suffolk[57]October 6–9, 2012500±4.4%40%37%7%14%
Public Policy Polling[58]October 8–10, 2012594±4.0%47%44%4%5%
LVRJ/Survey USA[59]October 11–15, 2012806±3.5%46%40%8%6%
Rasmussen Reports[60]October 15, 2012500±4.5%50%43%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports[61]October 23, 2012500±4.5%50%45%1%4%
Public Policy Polling[62]October 22–24, 2012636±3.9%44%44%7%5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[63]October 23–24, 20121,042±2.8%48%45%2%6%
LVRJ/SurveyUSA[64]October 23–29, 20121,212±2.9%46%40%10%4%
Public Policy Polling[65]November 3–4, 2012750±3.6%48%46%4%1%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dean
Heller (R)		Byron
Georgiou (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[36]April 21–24, 2011491±4.4%52%28%––20%
Magellan Strategies (R)[66]June 21–22, 2011720±3.65%46%33%––21%
Public Policy Polling[37]July 28–31, 2011601±4.0%48%31%––20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dean
Heller (R)		Oscar
Goodman (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%45%38%––16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dean
Heller (R)		Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%46%37%––16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Dean
Heller (R)		Ross
Miller (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%46%34%––21%

with John Ensign

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign (R)		Shelley
Berkley (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[67]January 11–12, 2010763±3.6%49%40%––11%
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%42%45%––13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign (R)		Catherine
Cortez Masto (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[68]July 16–18, 2010630±3.9%48%38%––14%
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%42%44%––14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign (R)		Oscar
Goodman (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[67]January 11–12, 2010763±3.6%43%41%––16%
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%35%45%––20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign (R)		Ross
Miller (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[67]January 11–12, 2010763±3.6%47%36%––18%
Public Policy Polling[35]January 3–5, 2011932±3.2%39%40%––21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Ensign (R)		Dina
Titus (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[68]July 16–18, 2010630±3.9%51%41%––8%

Predictions

[edit]
SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[69]TossupNovember 1, 2012
Inside Elections[70]Tilt RNovember 2, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[71]Lean RNovember 5, 2012
Real Clear Politics[72]TossupNovember 5, 2012

Results

[edit]

On election day, Heller edged out Berkley by just over a point, at the same timeBarack Obama defeatedMitt Romney by 6.7%, becoming the only Republican in 2012 to win a senate seat in a state that voted for Obama in the presidential election.

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2012[73]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
RepublicanDean Heller (incumbent)457,65645.87–9.49
DemocraticShelley Berkley446,08044.71+3.72
Independent AmericanDavid Lory VanDerBeek48,7924.89+3.56
None of These Candidates45,2774.54+3.12
Majority11,5761.16–13.21
Total votes997,805100.0
RepublicanholdSwing–6.60

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Heller won two of four congressional districts.[74]

DistrictBerkleyHellerRepresentative
1st58.57%31.6%Dina Titus
2nd34.27%55.83%Mark Amodei
3rd43.34%47.93%Joe Heck
4th48.26%42.38%Steven Horsford

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^In May 2011, Heller was appointed by GovernorBrian Sandoval to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of SenatorJohn Ensign.

References

[edit]
  1. ^Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013)."2012 General Election Turnout Rates".George Mason University. Archived fromthe original on April 24, 2013. RetrievedApril 3, 2013.
  2. ^Lichtblau, Eric; Lipton, Eric (October 2, 2009)."Senator's Aid to Mistress's Husband Raises Ethics Flags".The New York Times.
  3. ^Cillizza, Chris (July 9, 2009)."Ensign Acknowledges Mistress Payment".The Washington Post. Archived fromthe original on October 10, 2012.
  4. ^Raju, Manu; Bresnahan, John (February 1, 2011)."John Ensign running, despite ethics investigation".Politico. RetrievedFebruary 8, 2011.
  5. ^BALL, MOLLY (July 19, 2009)."New poll reveals Ensign's status sinking, But most Nevadans still say Republican senator should not resign".Las Vegas Review-Journal. Stephens Media, LLC. RetrievedJuly 20, 2009.
  6. ^Mascaro, Lisa (July 14, 2009)."Ensign to stay in Senate, seek reelection".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedJuly 14, 2009.
  7. ^abYurkanin, Justin (March 7, 2011)."Senator John Ensign announces he will not seek reelection".Las Vegas Review-Journal. RetrievedMarch 7, 2011.
  8. ^"Sen. Ensign says he will resign May 3".CNN. April 22, 2011. RetrievedApril 23, 2011.
  9. ^"Heller takes Senate oath".Politico. May 9, 2011.
  10. ^abcdeMeyers, Laura (November 7, 2010)."2012 ELECTION: Senate race field already looking full".Las Vegas Review-Journal. RetrievedNovember 30, 2010.
  11. ^abRalston, Jon (November 10, 2010)."GOP may be setting its sights on Ensign".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedDecember 15, 2010.
  12. ^abcdefghMyers, Laura (June 3, 2012)."2012 PRIMARY ELECTION: U.S. SENATE".Las Vegas Review-Journal. RetrievedJune 12, 2012.
  13. ^"Angle in race for Heller's House seat", ReviewJournal.com
  14. ^Ralston, Jon (September 21, 2010)."Chachas could make 2012 Senate race interesting".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedNovember 20, 2010.
  15. ^Kleefeld, Eric (January 6, 2011)."What The Cluck? Lowden Ready To Run Again".Talking Points Memo. RetrievedJanuary 6, 2011.
  16. ^Krolicki endorses Heller, mulls House bid by David Catanese at POLITICO.com
  17. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  18. ^Mason-Dixon/LVJR
  19. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  20. ^ab"Official Results of the 2012 Primary Election".Secretary of State of Nevada. RetrievedSeptember 15, 2012.
  21. ^Trygstad, Kyle (April 14, 2011)."Shelley Berkley Will Run for Senate in Nevada".Roll Call. RetrievedJune 12, 2012.
  22. ^Ralston, Jon (January 11, 2012)."Renewable energy company founder will run as Democrat for U.S. Senate in Nevada".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedJanuary 12, 2012.
  23. ^Tetreault, Steve."Entrepreneur files to oppose Berkley in Senate race".CNN. RetrievedJanuary 11, 2012.
  24. ^Coleman, Kyle."Green Energy Pioneer Barry Ellsworth Announces Nevada US Senate Run Against Corrupt Career Politician Shelley Berkley".Yahoo! News. RetrievedJanuary 31, 2012.
  25. ^Damon, Anjeanette (August 10, 2011)."Georgiou abandons U.S. Senate bid, clears way for Berkley on Democratic ticket".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedJune 12, 2012.
  26. ^Schwartz, David McGrath (December 15, 2010)."Secretary of state dives into immigration debate".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedDecember 15, 2010.
  27. ^Ralston, Jon (January 19, 2011)."National Republicans digging for information on Secretary of State Ross Miller".Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedJanuary 27, 2011.
  28. ^Public Policy Polling
  29. ^Public Policy Polling
  30. ^"Meet the Candidates: David Lory Van Der Beek".Las Vegas Review-Journal. RetrievedJune 12, 2012.
  31. ^Damon, Anjeanette (July 9, 2012)."House ethics committee to launch full investigation into allegations against Berkley".The Las Vegas Sun. RetrievedJuly 9, 2012.
  32. ^Jane Anne Morrison (March 24, 2012). "Whether true or false, ethics review may be Berkley's demise".Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  33. ^"Browse data".FEC.gov.
  34. ^Nevada Senate 2012 Race,OpenSecrets
  35. ^abcdefghPublic Policy Polling
  36. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  37. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  38. ^Public Policy Polling
  39. ^Cannon Survey Center
  40. ^Rasmussen Reports
  41. ^Public Policy Polling
  42. ^Rasmussen Reports
  43. ^NBC News/Marist
  44. ^Public Policy Polling
  45. ^Magellan Strategies
  46. ^Rasmussen Reports
  47. ^LVRJ/Survey USA
  48. ^Public Policy Polling
  49. ^Rasmussen Reports
  50. ^Public Policy Polling
  51. ^NBC/WSJ/Marist
  52. ^We Ask America
  53. ^Gravis Marketing
  54. ^Precision Opinion
  55. ^LVRJ/Survey USA
  56. ^Rasmussen Reports
  57. ^SuffolkArchived October 14, 2012, at theWayback Machine
  58. ^Public Policy Polling
  59. ^LVRJ/Survey USA
  60. ^Rasmussen Reports
  61. ^Rasmussen Reports
  62. ^Public Policy Polling
  63. ^NBC/WSJ/Marist
  64. ^LVRJ/SurveyUSA
  65. ^Public Policy Polling
  66. ^Magellan Strategies (R)Archived July 12, 2011, at theWayback Machine
  67. ^abcPublic Policy Polling[permanent dead link]
  68. ^abPublic Policy Polling
  69. ^"2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012".The Cook Political Report. Archived fromthe original on August 29, 2018. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  70. ^"2012 Senate Ratings".Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  71. ^"2012 Senate".Sabato's Crystal Ball. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  72. ^"2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. RetrievedSeptember 20, 2018.
  73. ^"Nevada General Election 2012 - U.S. Senate".Secretary of State of Nevada.
  74. ^"Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts".Daily Kos. RetrievedAugust 11, 2020.

External links

[edit]

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