All 9 Indiana seats to theUnited States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The2010 congressional elections in Indiana were held on November 2, 2010, to determine who would represent thestate ofIndiana in theUnited States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected served in the112th Congress from January 2011 until January 2013, except for the winner of the 3rd District's special election, who will serve the few remaining weeks of the111th Congress.
Indiana has nine seats in the House, apportioned according to the2000 United States census.
| United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010[1] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats | +/– | |
| Republican | 972,671 | 55.65% | 6 | +2 | |
| Democratic | 679,462 | 38.88% | 3 | -2 | |
| Libertarian | 84,289 | 4.82% | 0 | - | |
| Independents | 11,298 | 0.65% | 0 | - | |
| Totals | 1,747,720 | 100.00% | 9 | - | |
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana by district:[2]
| District | Republican | Democratic | Others | Total | Result | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 65,558 | 38.63% | 99,387 | 58.56% | 4,762 | 2.81% | 169,707 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 2 | 88,803 | 46.84% | 91,341 | 48.18% | 9,447 | 4.98% | 189,591 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 3 | 116,140 | 62.76% | 61,267 | 33.11% | 7,642 | 4.13% | 185,049 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 4 | 138,732 | 68.57% | 53,167 | 26.28% | 10,423 | 5.15% | 202,322 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 5 | 146,899 | 62.14% | 60,024 | 25.39% | 29,484 | 12.47% | 236,407 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 6 | 126,027 | 66.57% | 56,647 | 29.92% | 6,635 | 3.51% | 189,309 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 7 | 55,213 | 37.81% | 86,011 | 58.89% | 4,815 | 3.30% | 146,039 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 8 | 117,259 | 57.55% | 76,265 | 37.43% | 10,240 | 5.02% | 203,764 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| District 9 | 118,040 | 52.34% | 95,353 | 42.28% | 12,139 | 5.38% | 225,532 | 100.0% | Republican gain |
| Total | 972,671 | 55.65% | 679,462 | 38.88% | 95,587 | 5.47% | 1,747,720 | 100.0% | |
DemocratPete Visclosky has represented this district since 1985. The PVI is D+8. He faced Republican activist Mark Leyva andLibertarian candidate Jon Morris. Visclosky was endorsed by theNorthwest Indiana Times and theIndianapolis Star.[3][4]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe D | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Pete Visclosky (incumbent) | 99,387 | 58.56 | |
| Republican | Mark J. Leyva | 65,558 | 38.63 | |
| Libertarian | Jon Morris | 4,762 | 2.81 | |
| Total votes | 169,707 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Democratichold | ||||
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County results Donnelly: 40–50% 50–60% Walorski: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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DemocratJoe Donnelly had represented this district since 2007 and ran for reelection. He was challenged by Republican nomineeState RepresentativeJackie Walorski, whom he defeated.[11]
Obama carried this district with 54% of the vote in 2008.[12]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Joe Donnelly (D) | Jackie Walorski (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA[13] | October 20–22, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | n/a |
| EPIC-MRA[14] | October 1–3, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 39% | 7% |
| American Action Forum via South Bend Tribune[15] | August 16–19, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | n/a |
| The Polling Company[16] | July 31-August 3, 2010 | 309 | ± 5.6% | 52% | 35% | 11% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Lean D | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Lean D | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Donnelly (incumbent) | 91,341 | 48.18 | |
| Republican | Jackie Walorski | 88,803 | 46.84 | |
| Libertarian | Mark Vogel | 9,447 | 4.98 | |
| Total votes | 189,591 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Democratichold | ||||
RepublicanMark Souder represented this district from 2003 until his resignation on May 18, 2010. Fellow RepublicanJohn McCain carried this district with 56% of the vote in the2008 presidential election.[17]
In the Republican primary, car dealer Bob Thomas gave Souder a strong challenge in the primary. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Thomas within six percentage points of Souder. Other Republican candidates included attorneyPhil Troyer and Tea Party activistGreg Dickman. Souder won the primary with 48% of the vote. He was to face Democrat Fort Wayne councilmanTom Hayhurst.
However, as Souder announced his resignation from Congress and his resignation as the Republican candidate for Congress on May 18, 2010, GovernorMitch Daniels set a date for a special election to be held concurrently with the general election in November. A caucus was to be held to choose the Republican candidate for the special election and the general election. The Republican caucus to choose the nominee was held on June 12, 2010. State SenatorMarlin Stutzman was selected as the Republican nominee for both the special and general elections.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Mark Souder | Bob Thomas | Phil Troyer | Greg Dickman | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA (Link) | April 22–26, 2010 | 35% | 29% | 19% | 2% | 16% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marlin Stutzman | 116,140 | 62.76 | |
| Democratic | Thomas Hayhurst | 61,267 | 33.11 | |
| Libertarian | Scott W. Wise | 7,631 | 4.12 | |
| No party | Others | 11 | 0.01 | |
| Total votes | 185,049 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Republicanhold | ||||
The 2010 special election forIndiana's 3rd congressional district was held November 2, contemporaneously with the regularly scheduledgeneral election. The special election was called to fill the vacancy left byRepublicanMark Souder, who resigned after an affair with a staffer was revealed.[18]
Nominee
Lost Nomination
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Marlin Stutzman (R) | Tom Hayhurst (D) | Scott Wise (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riggs Research[21] | October 27–28, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 36% | 40% | 3% | n/a |
| SurveyUSA[22] | October 21–25, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 57% | 32% | 7% | 2% |
| American Viewpoint[23] | July 19–20, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 56% | 29% | 2% | n/a |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marlin Stutzman | 115,415 | 62.65 | |
| Democratic | Thomas Hayhurst | 60,880 | 33.05 | |
| Libertarian | Scott W. Wise | 7,914 | 4.30 | |
| Total votes | 184,209 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Republicanhold | ||||
RepublicanSteve Buyer did not run for re-election. McCain carried the district with 56% of the vote.Todd Rokita, the RepublicanSecretary of State of Indiana, RepublicanState SenatorBrandt Hershman, Cheryl Denise Allen and Mark Seitz filed to run for Buyer's vacant seat.[24] Rokita won the primary and defeated Democrat David Sanders in the general election.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Todd Rokita | 138,732 | 68.57 | |
| Democratic | David Sanders | 53,167 | 26.28 | |
| Libertarian | John Duncan | 10,423 | 5.15 | |
| Total votes | 202,322 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Republicanhold | ||||
RepublicanDan Burton has represented this district since 2003. John McCain carried 59% of the vote in 2008.[26]
Former Republican candidate Brose McVey,Indiana Republican Party Executive DirectorLuke Messer,State RepresentativeMike Murphy, and 2008 primary challenger John McGoff all formally announced their intention to run. Burton won the primary with just 30% of the vote. He faced DemocratTim Crawford in the general election.[27]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Dan Burton | Luke Messer | Brose McVey | John McGoff | Mike Murphy | Andy Lyons | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (Link) | March 5, 2010 | 43% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 26% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Dan Burton (incumbent) | 146,899 | 62.14 | |
| Democratic | Tim Crawford | 60,024 | 25.39 | |
| Libertarian | Richard Reid | 18,266 | 7.73 | |
| Independent | Jesse C. Trueblood | 11,218 | 4.75 | |
| Total votes | 236,407 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Republicanhold | ||||
RepublicanMike Pence represented this district since 2003. In the 2008 presidential election, Republican nominee McCain carried the district with 52% of the vote. Pence faced Democratic nominee Barry Welsh,[28] a minister, and defeated him to keep his seat.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe R | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe R | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Pence (incumbent) | 126,027 | 66.57 | |
| Democratic | Barry A. Welsh | 56,647 | 29.92 | |
| Libertarian | Talmage "T.J." Thompson, Jr. | 6,635 | 3.51 | |
| Total votes | 189,309 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | 41 | |||
| Republicanhold | ||||
DemocratAndré Carson has served since 2008. President Obama carried this district with 71% of the vote, considered safe or solid by most sources. He again faced perennial Republican candidateMarvin Scott, who took issue with Carson'sMuslim faith during the general election.[29] However, Carson defeated Scott by a large margin to retain his seat.[30]
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Safe D | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Safe D | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | André Carson (incumbent) | 86,011 | 58.90 | |
| Republican | Marvin B. Scott | 55,213 | 37.81 | |
| Libertarian | Dav Wilson | 4,815 | 3.30 | |
| Total votes | 146,039 | 100.00 | ||
| Turnout | ||||
| Democratichold | ||||
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County results Bucshon: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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This was an open seat as Democratic incumbentBrad Ellsworth ran (unsuccessfully) for the U.S. Senate. The Democratic nominee was lawyer and State RepresentativeTrent Van Haaften. The Republican nominee wasLarry Bucshon, president of Ohio Valley HeartCare.
Bucshon received support from theNational Republican Congressional Committee and was named aGOP Young Gun.[31] During the campaign, Bucshon was endorsed by several conservative interest groups and elected officials, including the Indiana Chamber of Commerce Congressional Action Committee,United States Chamber of Commerce,National Right to Life Committee, Indiana Right to Life, Indiana Manufacturers Association, Campaign for Working Families, House Minority LeaderJohn Boehner, U.S. CongressmanMike Pence, and Indiana GovernorMitch Daniels.[32]
Bucshon received significant campaign contributions from medical groups[33] Bucshon defeated van Haaften by a margin of 21 points, winning all 18 counties in the district.[34]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Trent Van Haaften (D) | Larry Bucshon (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies[35] | July 21–22, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 43% | n/a |
| OnMessage[36] | September 13–14, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 20% | 41% | n/a |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Likely R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Likely R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Likely R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Lean R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Likely R(flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Safe R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Likely R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Larry Bucshon | 117,259 | 57.55 | |||
| Democratic | Trent Van Haaften | 76,265 | 37.43 | |||
| Libertarian | John Cunningham | 10,240 | 5.03 | |||
| Total votes | 203,764 | 100.00 | ||||
| Turnout | ||||||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | ||||||
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County results Young: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Hill: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Democratic incumbentBaron Hill was challenged by Republican Todd Young (campaign site,PVS,WhoRunsGov), Libertarian Greg Knott (campaign siteArchived 2013-07-21 at theWayback Machine,PVS), and Independent Jerry Lucas (campaign site,PVS). He was defeated, and was defeated byTodd Young.
Five-term Congressman DemocratBaron Hill has won in the ninth district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to RepublicanMike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sodrel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wider margin. McCain carried the district with only 50% of the vote. In 2010, Sodrel sought another rematch, but lost to formerMarine Captain andOrange County Deputy ProsecutorTodd Young in the Republican primary.[37][38] Independent Jerry Lucas, a nurse and army veteran, has also filed to run.[39][40] Greg Knott entered the race as theLibertarian Party candidate.
Prior to the campaign season, Hill came under increasing public pressure following the passage of thePatient Protection and Affordable Care Act. At public meetings, Hill had to be escorted by state police for his protection and had heated verbal exchanges with the public which made local news on several occasions and leading Hill to refuse to hold additional public meetings in person.[41]
Hill launched a series of campaign ads beginning in mid August questioning Young's intentions for the future ofSocial Security and highlighting a comment made by Young referring to it as a "Ponzi scheme".[42] Local media covering the debate questioned both candidates about their ads; Hill defended his support of healthcare, stimulus, and new regulatory legislation as the correct votes for the future of the country.
Young reconfirmed his position, stating Social Security was indeed a "Ponzi scheme" and needed reform to remain financially viable and called on Hill to explain his financial plans for the nation.[43]
The last week of August, the Young campaign began running ads on radio and television pointing out Hill's record of supporting spending legislation and calling on fiscal restraint in Congress. On the night of August 30, Young'sBloomington campaign headquarters were vandalized; the air conditioner was stolen, the phone and internet lines into the building were cut, the power disconnected.[42] The Young campaign requested that Hill participate in seventown hall style debates.[44] The first scheduled debate will be held October 18 at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater in Bloomington.[45]
In a post-primary June Public Opinion Strategies poll, Hill had a 41–33 lead over Young.[46] An August poll conducted by the Young campaign suggested only 37% of voters believed Hill deserved another term.[43] During the first week of September Real Clear Politics had the race rated as a toss-up.[40]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Baron Hill (D) | Todd Young (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies[47] | May 25–26, 2010 | 300 | ±5.7% | 41% | 34% | n/a |
| Public Opinion Strategies[35] | July 26–28, 2010 | 300 | ±4.9% | 42% | 41% | n/a |
| The Hill/ANGA[48] | October 16–19, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 46% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies[35] | October 24–25, 2010 | n/a | ±5.7% | 37% | 49% | n/a |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[6] | Tilt R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[7] | Lean R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| RCP[8] | Lean R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[9] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
| New York Times[10] | Tossup | November 1, 2010 |
| FiveThirtyEight[10] | Lean R(flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Todd Young | 118,040 | 52.34 | |||
| Democratic | Baron Hill (incumbent) | 95,353 | 42.28 | |||
| Libertarian | Greg "No Bull" Knott | 12,070 | 5.35 | |||
| No party | Others | 69 | 0.03 | |||
| Total votes | 225,532 | 100.00 | ||||
| Turnout | ||||||
| Republicangain fromDemocratic | ||||||