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 County results Murray: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Nethercutt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The2004 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 2, 2004. IncumbentDemocrat U.S. SenatorPatty Murray won re-election to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. RepresentativeGeorge Nethercutt. She became only the fourth Washington senator to win 3 consecutive terms, just after fellow DemocratsWarren G. Magnuson andScoop Jackson[citation needed]. Nethercutt was known for having defeatedTom Foley, the sitting Speaker of the House of Representatives, as part of the 1994 Republican wave.
Term limits became an issue in the campaign, as Democrats seized on Nethercutt's broken term-limits pledge that he had made when he had unseated Foley in 1994. Geography was also against Nethercutt, who was severely hampered by his lack of name recognition in the more densely populated western part of the state, home to two-thirds of the state's population. Washington has not elected a Senator from east of theCascades sinceClarence Dill in 1928. Other important issues included national security and thewar in Iraq. Nethercutt supported theinvasion of Iraq, while Murray opposed it.
Nethercutt was considered a heavy underdog from the start, and his campaign never gained much traction. In November, he lost by 12 points, receiving 43 percent of the vote to Murray's 55 percent. He only carried two counties west of the Cascades.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[1] | Likely D | November 1, 2004 |
Newspapers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[3] | Margin of error | Patty Murray (D) | George Nethercutt (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[4] | October 29–31, 2004 | 622 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 45% | 3% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | October 29–31, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | October 24–26, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon[6] | October 25–26, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| SurveyUSA[7] | October 23–25, 2004 | 618 (LV) | ± 4% | 55% | 41% | 4% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | October 16–18, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[8] | October 15–17, 2004 | 634 (LV) | ± 4% | 56% | 38% | 6% |
| Elway Research[9] | October 14–16, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ± 5% | 54% | 37% | 9% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | October 4–6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[7] | October 2–4, 2004 | 640 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 38% | 5% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | September 20–22, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[7] | September 19–21, 2004 | 627 (LV) | ± 4% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Elway Research[10] | September 17–19, 2004 | 405 (RV) | ± 5% | 57% | 37% | 6% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | September 4–6, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | August 21–23, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[11] | August 15–17, 2004 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 39% | 10% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[5] | August 9–11, 2004 | 801 (LV) | ± 3% | 49% | 40% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA[12] | Jul 31–Aug 2, 2004 | 585 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)[13] | June 23–28, 2004 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 56% | 33% | 11% |
| Moore Information (R)[14] | June 23–24, 2004 | 500 (RV) | ± 4% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon (D)[15] | June 9–11, 2004 | 625 (RV) | ± 4% | 53% | 34% | 13% |
| SurveyUSA[16] | June 1–3, 2004 | 654 (RV) | ± 4% | 49% | 34% | 17% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[17] | May 2–3, 2004 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 50.6% | 41.1% | 8.3% |
| Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D)[18] | April 22–27, 2004 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 54% | 31% | 15% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[19] | May 5–6, 2003 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[3] | Margin of error | Patty Murray (D) | George Nethercutt (R) | Reed Davis (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elway Research[20] | January 27–29, 2004 | 405 (V) | ± 5% | 49% | 19% | 5% | 27% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size[3] | Margin of error | Patty Murray (D) | Jennifer Dunn (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| forNRSC (R)[21] | January 2003 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
The election was not close, with Murray winning by 12.24% of the vote. Although Murray failed to win any counties in the eastern part of the state, she pulled down big margins from the western part of the state, which is significantly more populated. Specifically, Murray trounced Nethercutt inKing County, home ofSeattle, the most populous county in the state. Murray was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2005.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (Incumbent) | 1,549,708 | 54.98% | –3.43% | |
| Republican | George Nethercutt | 1,204,584 | 42.74% | +1.15% | |
| Libertarian | J. Mills | 34,055 | 1.21% | N/A | |
| Green | Mark Wilson | 30,304 | 1.08% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 2,818,651 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratichold | |||||
| County[22] | Patty Murray Democratic | George Nethercutt Republican | Various candidates Other parties | Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 1,607 | 31.75% | 3,362 | 66.43% | 92 | 1.82% | -1,755 | -34.68% | 5,061 |
| Asotin | 3,511 | 40.48% | 4,985 | 57.48% | 177 | 2.04% | -1,474 | -17.00% | 8,673 |
| Benton | 25,863 | 39.20% | 38,690 | 58.64% | 1,430 | 2.17% | -12,827 | -19.44% | 65,983 |
| Chelan | 11,307 | 39.34% | 16,874 | 58.71% | 561 | 1.95% | -5,567 | -19.37% | 28,742 |
| Clallam | 17,817 | 49.38% | 17,298 | 47.94% | 967 | 2.68% | 519 | 1.44% | 36,082 |
| Clark | 80,134 | 48.31% | 81,888 | 49.36% | 3,861 | 2.33% | -1,754 | -1.06% | 165,883 |
| Columbia | 741 | 35.22% | 1,318 | 62.64% | 45 | 2.14% | -577 | -27.42% | 2,104 |
| Cowlitz | 22,535 | 53.95% | 18,301 | 43.81% | 936 | 2.24% | 4,234 | 10.14% | 41,772 |
| Douglas | 4,893 | 36.93% | 8,128 | 61.34% | 230 | 1.74% | -3,235 | -24.41% | 13,251 |
| Ferry | 1,362 | 41.12% | 1,847 | 55.77% | 103 | 3.11% | -485 | -14.64% | 3,312 |
| Franklin | 6,215 | 38.93% | 9,495 | 59.48% | 253 | 1.58% | -3,280 | -20.55% | 15,963 |
| Garfield | 417 | 31.93% | 872 | 66.77% | 17 | 1.30% | -455 | -34.84% | 1,306 |
| Grant | 9,015 | 35.05% | 16,091 | 62.55% | 618 | 2.40% | -7,076 | -27.51% | 25,724 |
| Grays Harbor | 15,830 | 57.34% | 11,220 | 40.64% | 557 | 2.02% | 4,610 | 16.70% | 27,607 |
| Island | 19,181 | 50.58% | 17,969 | 47.39% | 770 | 2.03% | 1,212 | 3.20% | 37,920 |
| Jefferson | 11,573 | 62.70% | 6,415 | 34.75% | 471 | 2.55% | 5,158 | 27.94% | 18,459 |
| King | 573,506 | 65.20% | 287,456 | 32.68% | 18,693 | 2.13% | 286,050 | 32.52% | 879,655 |
| Kitsap | 63,684 | 54.32% | 50,574 | 43.14% | 2,974 | 2.54% | 13,110 | 11.18% | 117,232 |
| Kittitas | 7,182 | 45.10% | 8,367 | 52.54% | 377 | 2.37% | -1,185 | -7.44% | 15,926 |
| Klickitat | 4,184 | 46.38% | 4,609 | 51.09% | 228 | 2.53% | -425 | -4.71% | 9,021 |
| Lewis | 11,583 | 36.33% | 19,474 | 61.07% | 830 | 2.60% | -7,891 | -24.75% | 31,887 |
| Lincoln | 1,956 | 33.92% | 3,703 | 64.21% | 108 | 1.87% | -1,747 | -30.29% | 5,767 |
| Mason | 13,349 | 53.29% | 10,998 | 43.90% | 703 | 2.81% | 2,351 | 9.39% | 25,050 |
| Okanogan | 6,616 | 41.18% | 8,931 | 55.58% | 521 | 3.24% | -2,315 | -14.41% | 16,068 |
| Pacific | 5,850 | 56.96% | 4,149 | 40.40% | 271 | 2.64% | 1,701 | 16.56% | 10,270 |
| Pend Oreille | 2,703 | 44.07% | 3,241 | 52.84% | 190 | 3.10% | -538 | -8.77% | 6,134 |
| Pierce | 167,428 | 53.99% | 136,084 | 43.88% | 6,615 | 2.13% | 31,344 | 10.11% | 310,127 |
| San Juan | 6,376 | 64.28% | 3,164 | 31.90% | 379 | 3.82% | 3,212 | 32.38% | 9,919 |
| Skagit | 26,162 | 50.60% | 24,364 | 47.12% | 1,181 | 2.28% | 1,798 | 3.48% | 51,707 |
| Skamania | 2,550 | 50.76% | 2,314 | 46.06% | 160 | 3.18% | 236 | 4.70% | 5,024 |
| Snohomish | 160,402 | 54.93% | 124,986 | 42.80% | 6,615 | 2.27% | 35,416 | 12.13% | 292,003 |
| Spokane | 94,446 | 47.08% | 101,511 | 50.60% | 4,653 | 2.32% | -7,065 | -3.52% | 200,610 |
| Stevens | 7,706 | 38.33% | 11,804 | 58.71% | 594 | 2.95% | -4,098 | -20.38% | 20,104 |
| Thurston | 63,364 | 57.14% | 44,417 | 40.06% | 3,108 | 2.80% | 18,947 | 17.09% | 110,889 |
| Wahkiakum | 1,086 | 50.12% | 1,018 | 46.98% | 63 | 2.91% | 68 | 3.14% | 2,167 |
| Walla Walla | 9,972 | 43.99% | 12,243 | 54.01% | 454 | 2.00% | -2,271 | -10.02% | 22,669 |
| Whatcom | 48,078 | 54.21% | 38,036 | 42.88% | 2,580 | 2.91% | 10,042 | 11.32% | 88,694 |
| Whitman | 8,152 | 46.00% | 9,073 | 51.20% | 496 | 2.80% | -921 | -5.20% | 17,721 |
| Yakima | 31,372 | 43.47% | 39,315 | 54.48% | 1,478 | 2.05% | -7,943 | -11.01% | 72,165 |
| Totals | 1,549,708 | 54.98% | 1,204,584 | 42.74% | 64,359 | 2.28% | 345,124 | 12.24% | 2,818,651 |
Swing by county
Trend relative to the state by county
County flipsDemocratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold Gain from Democratic
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