The Pollster estimate for the 2012 presidential election. For 2012 election results,click here.
Updated Monday, Nov. 26 3:31 pm ET
Barack Obama
281
Electoral Votes
270 to win
Mitt Romney
191
Electoral Votes
Delaware
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
California
55 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
56%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Connecticut
7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
District of Columbia
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
87%
Romney
8%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Hawaii
4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
62%
Romney
33%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Illinois
20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
57%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Massachusetts
11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
57%
Romney
39%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Maryland
10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
58%
Romney
37%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Maine
4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
53%
Romney
42%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Michigan
16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Minnesota
10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
New Jersey
14 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
53%
Romney
42%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
New Mexico
5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
51%
Romney
43%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
New York
29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
60%
Romney
36%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Oregon
7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
45%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Pennsylvania
20 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
44%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Rhode Island
4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
60%
Romney
36%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Vermont
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
65%
Romney
30%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Washington
12 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Obama
Obama
54%
Romney
41%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Ohio
18 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Wisconsin
10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Nevada
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
50%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
99%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Iowa
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
46%
Confidence of Obama lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls
New Hampshire
4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Leans Obama
Obama
49%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
97%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Virginia
13 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
49%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
95%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Colorado
9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
49%
Romney
47%
Confidence of Obama lead
92%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Florida
29 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
48%
Romney
48%
Confidence of Obama lead
53%
Click to see chart and latest polls
North Carolina
15 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Tossup
Obama
47%
Romney
49%
Confidence of Romney lead
89%
Click to see chart and latest polls
South Carolina
9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
90%
Alabama
9 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
37%
Romney
58%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Arkansas
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
35%
Romney
61%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Arizona
11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Georgia
16 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Idaho
4 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
30%
Romney
65%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Indiana
11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
42%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Kentucky
8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
39%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Louisiana
8 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
37%
Romney
58%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Missouri
10 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
52%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Montana
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
44%
Romney
51%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
North Dakota
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Nebraska
5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
41%
Romney
54%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Oklahoma
7 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
32%
Romney
63%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
South Dakota
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
43%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Tennessee
11 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
42%
Romney
53%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Texas
38 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
39%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Utah
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
26%
Romney
70%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
West Virginia
5 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Obama
40%
Romney
56%
Confidence of Romney lead
100%
Click to see chart and latest polls
Alaska
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Kansas
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Mississippi
6 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
Wyoming
3 electoral votes
HuffPost Model Estimate
Strong Romney
237 Strong Obama
44 Leans Obama
66 Tossup
0 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney
Each state is sized in proportion to its number of electoral votes.
Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based onhundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through apoll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day.
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State by State
Democrat
Republican
| Pollster Outlook | Past results | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Electoral votes | Obama | Romney | Margin | '08 | '04 | '00 |
| B Alabama | 9 | 37% | 58% | Romney +21 | R | R | R |
| A Alaska | 3 | R | R | R | |||
| DArizona | 11 | 44% | 52% | Romney +8 | R | R | R |
| C Arkansas | 6 | 35% | 61% | Romney +26 | R | R | R |
| ECalifornia | 55 | 56% | 39% | Obama +17 | D | D | D |
| FColorado | 9 | 49% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| GConnecticut | 7 | 54% | 41% | Obama +13 | D | D | D |
| H Delaware | 3 | D | D | D | |||
| y District of Columbia | 3 | 87% | 8% | Obama +79 | D | D | D |
| IFlorida | 29 | 48% | 48% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| JGeorgia | 16 | 44% | 52% | Romney +8 | R | R | R |
| K Hawaii | 4 | 62% | 33% | Obama +29 | D | D | D |
| M Idaho | 4 | 30% | 65% | Romney +35 | R | R | R |
| NIllinois | 20 | 57% | 39% | Obama +18 | D | D | D |
| OIndiana | 11 | 42% | 53% | Romney +11 | D | R | R |
| LIowa | 6 | 49% | 46% | Obama +3 | D | R | D |
| P Kansas | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| Q Kentucky | 8 | 39% | 56% | Romney +17 | R | R | R |
| R Louisiana | 8 | 37% | 58% | Romney +21 | R | R | R |
| UMaine | 4 | 53% | 42% | Obama +11 | D | D | D |
| TMaryland | 10 | 58% | 37% | Obama +21 | D | D | D |
| SMassachusetts | 11 | 57% | 39% | Obama +18 | D | D | D |
| VMichigan | 16 | 51% | 44% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| WMinnesota | 10 | 51% | 44% | Obama +7 | D | D | D |
| Y Mississippi | 6 | R | R | R | |||
| XMissouri | 10 | 43% | 52% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| ZMontana | 3 | 44% | 51% | Romney +7 | R | R | R |
| cNebraska | 5 | 41% | 54% | Romney +13 | R* | R | R |
| gNevada | 6 | 50% | 47% | Obama +3 | D | R | R |
| dNew Hampshire | 4 | 49% | 47% | Obama +2 | D | D | R |
| eNew Jersey | 14 | 53% | 42% | Obama +11 | D | D | D |
| fNew Mexico | 5 | 51% | 43% | Obama +8 | D | R | D |
| hNew York | 29 | 60% | 36% | Obama +24 | D | D | D |
| aNorth Carolina | 15 | 47% | 49% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| bNorth Dakota | 3 | 41% | 54% | Romney +13 | R | R | R |
| iOhio | 18 | 49% | 46% | Obama +3 | D | R | R |
| j Oklahoma | 7 | 32% | 63% | Romney +31 | R | R | R |
| kOregon | 7 | 50% | 45% | Obama +5 | D | D | D |
| lPennsylvania | 20 | 50% | 44% | Obama +6 | D | D | D |
| m Rhode Island | 4 | 60% | 36% | Obama +24 | D | D | D |
| n South Carolina | 9 | 43% | 52% | Romney +9 | R | R | R |
| oSouth Dakota | 3 | 43% | 53% | Romney +10 | R | R | R |
| pTennessee | 11 | 42% | 53% | Romney +11 | R | R | R |
| qTexas | 38 | 39% | 56% | Romney +17 | R | R | R |
| rUtah | 6 | 26% | 70% | Romney +44 | R | R | R |
| t Vermont | 3 | 65% | 30% | Obama +35 | D | D | D |
| sVirginia | 13 | 49% | 47% | Tossup | D | R | R |
| uWashington | 12 | 54% | 41% | Obama +13 | D | D | D |
| wWest Virginia | 5 | 40% | 56% | Romney +16 | R | R | R |
| vWisconsin | 10 | 50% | 46% | Obama +4 | D | D | D |
| x Wyoming | 3 | R | R | R | |||
*In 2008, Nebraska's electoral votes were split. McCain took four of the state's five electoral votes and Obama took one.
By Jay Boice, Aaron Bycoffe and Andrei Scheinkman. Statistical model created by Simon Jackman.