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Dynamical anomalies in terrestrial proxies of North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka

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Abstract

Recent work has provided ample evidence that nonlinear methods of time series analysis potentially allow for detecting periods of anomalous dynamics in paleoclimate proxy records that are otherwise hidden to classical statistical analysis. Following upon these ideas, in this study, we systematically test a set of Late Holocene terrestrial paleoclimate records from Northern Europe for indications of intermittent periods of time- irreversibility during which the data are incompatible with a stationary linear-stochastic process. Our analysis reveals that the onsets of both the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, the end of the Roman Warm Period, and the Late Antique Little Ice Age have been characterized by such dynamical anomalies. These findings may indicate qualitative changes in the dominant regime of interannual climate variability in terms of large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, ocean-atmosphere interactions, and external forcings affecting the climate of the North Atlantic region.

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Acknowledgments

This work has been financially supported by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF) via the BMBF Young Investigators Group “CoSy-CC2 - Complex Systems Approaches to Understanding Causes and Consequences of Past, Present and Future Climate Change” (grant no. 01LN1306A) and the bilateral German-Norwegian project “Nonlinear variability and regime shifts in Late Holocene climate: regional patterns and inter-regional linkages in multi-proxy networks and climate simulations” jointly funded by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD project no. 57245873) and the Research Council of Norway. The authors thank Johannes Werner and Saija Saarni for fruitful discussions and the anonymous reviewers of this manuscript for helpful suggestions to improve its overall presentation. The data used in this study have been kindly provided by PAGES 2k, Saija Saarni and Jan Esper. Calculations have been performed with the help of the Python packagepyunicorn (Donges et al.2015b).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach, Telegrafenberg A56, 14473, Potsdam, Germany

    Jasper G. Franke & Reik V. Donner

  2. Humboldt University of Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Jasper G. Franke

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  1. Jasper G. Franke

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  2. Reik V. Donner

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Correspondence toJasper G. Franke.

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Franke, J.G., Donner, R.V. Dynamical anomalies in terrestrial proxies of North Atlantic climate variability during the last 2 ka.Climatic Change143, 87–100 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1979-z

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