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nfl4th: Functions to Calculate Optimal Fourth Down Decisions in the National Football League

Description

A set of functions to estimate outcomes of fourth down plays in the National Football League and obtain fourth down plays fromhttps://www.nfl.com/ andhttps://www.espn.com/.

Author(s)

Maintainer: Ben Baldwinbbaldwin206@gmail.com [copyright holder]

Other contributors:

• Sebastian Carlmrcaseb@gmail.com [contributor]

See Also

Useful links:

• https://www.nfl4th.com/

• https://github.com/nflverse/nfl4th/

• https://github.com/nflverse/nfl4th

• Report bugs athttps://github.com/nflverse/nfl4th/issues

Get 2pt decision probabilities

Description

Get various probabilities associated with each option on PATs (gofor it, kick PAT).

Usage

add_2pt_probs(df)

Arguments

Value

Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:

first_down_prob, wp_fail, wp_succeed, go_wp, fg_make_prob, miss_fg_wp, make_fg_wp, fg_wp, punt_wp

wp_0

Win probability when scoring 0 points on PAT.

wp_1

Win probability when scoring 1 point on PAT.

wp_2

Win probability when scoring 2 points on PAT.

conv_1pt

Probability of making PAT kick.

conv_2pt

Probability of converting 2-pt attempt.

wp_go1

Win probability associated with going for 1.

wp_go2

Win probability associated with going for 2.

Examples

play <-  tibble::tibble(    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")    home_team = "GB",    away_team = "TB",    posteam = "GB",    type = "post",    season = 2020,    # information about the situation    qtr = 4,    quarter_seconds_remaining = 123,    score_differential = -2,    home_opening_kickoff = 0,    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3  )probs <- nfl4th::add_2pt_probs(play)dplyr::glimpse(probs)

Get 4th down decision probabilities

Description

Get various probabilities associated with each option on 4th downs (gofor it, kick field goal, punt).

Usage

add_4th_probs(df)

Arguments

Value

Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:

go_boost

Gain (or loss) in win prob associated with choosing to go for it (percentage points).

first_down_prob

Probability of earning a first down if going for it on 4th down.

wp_fail

Win probability in the event of a failed 4th down attempt.

wp_succeed

Win probability in the event of a successful 4th down attempt.

go_wp

Average win probability when going for it on 4th down.

fg_make_prob

Probability of making field goal.

miss_fg_wp

Win probability in the event of a missed field goal.

make_fg_wp

Win probability in the event of a made field goal.

fg_wp

Average win probability when attempting field goal.

punt_wp

Average win probability when punting.

Examples

play <-  tibble::tibble(    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")    home_team = "GB",    away_team = "TB",    posteam = "GB",    type = "post",    season = 2020,    # information about the situation    qtr = 4,    quarter_seconds_remaining = 129,    ydstogo = 8,    yardline_100 = 8,    score_differential = -8,    home_opening_kickoff = 0,    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3  )probs <- nfl4th::add_4th_probs(play)dplyr::glimpse(probs)

Get 4th down plays from a game

Description

Get 4th down plays from a game.

Usage

get_4th_plays(gid)

Arguments

Details

Obtains a data frame that can be used withadd_4th_probs(). The following columnsmust be present:

• game_id : game ID in nflfastR format (eg '2020_20_TB_GB')

Value

Original data frame Data frame plus the following columns added:

desc

Play description from ESPN.

type_text

Play type text from ESPN.

index

Index number of play from a given game. Useful for tracking plays (e.g. for 4th down bot).

The rest

All the columns needed for⁠add_4th_probs().⁠

Examples

plays <- nfl4th::get_4th_plays('2020_20_TB_GB')dplyr::glimpse(plays)

Load calculated 4th down probabilities fromnflfastR data

Description

Load calculated 4th down probabilities fromnflfastR data.

Usage

load_4th_pbp(seasons, fast = FALSE)

Arguments

Value

nflfastR data on 4th downs with theadd_4th_probs() columns added and also the following:

go

100 if a team went for it on 4th down, 0 otherwise. It's 100 and 0 as a convenience for obtaining percent of times going for it.

Examples

try({# Wrap in try to avoid CRAN test problemsprobs <- load_4th_pbp(2019:2020)dplyr::glimpse(probs)})

Get 2pt decision probabilities

Description

Get a table with the probabilities associated with a 2-pt decision.

Usage

make_2pt_table_data(probs)

Arguments

Value

A table showing the probabilities associated with each possible choice.

Examples

play <-  tibble::tibble(    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")    home_team = "GB",    away_team = "TB",    posteam = "GB",    type = "post",    season = 2020,    # information about the situation    qtr = 4,    quarter_seconds_remaining = 123,    score_differential = -2,    home_opening_kickoff = 0,    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3  )probs <- nfl4th::add_2pt_probs(play)nfl4th::make_2pt_table_data(probs)

Get 4th down decision probabilities

Description

Get a table with the probabilities on 4th down.

Usage

make_table_data(probs)

Arguments

Value

A table showing the probabilities associated with each possible choice.

Examples

play <-  tibble::tibble(    # things to help find the right game (use "reg" or "post")    home_team = "GB",    away_team = "TB",    posteam = "GB",    type = "post",    season = 2020,    # information about the situation    qtr = 4,    quarter_seconds_remaining = 129,    ydstogo = 8,    yardline_100 = 8,    score_differential = -8,    home_opening_kickoff = 0,    posteam_timeouts_remaining = 3,    defteam_timeouts_remaining = 3  )probs <- nfl4th::add_4th_probs(play)nfl4th::make_table_data(probs)

Reset nfl4th Package Cache

Description

Reset nfl4th Package Cache

Usage

nfl4th_clear_cache(type = c("games", "fd_model", "wp_model", "all"))

Arguments

Value

ReturnsTRUE invisibly if cache has been cleared.

Examples

nfl4th_clear_cache()