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nfl4th

This is the package that powers thefourth downcalculator introduced inthispiece on The Athletic.

The code that powers the Twitter fourth down botis inthis folder here and thecodethat runs the Shiny app is here.

Installation

The easiest way to get the released version of nfl4th is to installit fromCRANwith:

install.packages("nfl4th")

To get a bug fix or to use a feature from the development version,you can install the development version of nfl4th fromGitHub with:

install.packages("nfl4th",repos =c("https://nflverse.r-universe.dev",getOption("repos")))

or by using remotes:

if (!require("remotes"))install.packages("remotes")remotes::install_github("nflverse/nfl4th")

Features

• Thego for it model gives probabilities forpossibilities of yards gained and includes the possibility of earning afirst down via defensive penalty
• Thepunt model includes the possibility for gettingblocked, returned for a touchdown, or fumbled on the return
• Thefield goal model is a simple model of fieldgoal % by distance and roof type

Current limitations

There are some edge cases that are not accounted for. These shouldonly make a marginal difference to the recommendations as they arelargely edge cases (e.g. the possibility for a field goal to be blockedand returned).

• Thego for it model does not allow for thepossibility of a turnover return. However, long returns are extremelyrare: For example, in 2018 and 2019 there were only four defensivetouchdowns on plays where teams went for fourth downs out of 1,236plays, and all of these happened when the game was well in hand for theother team.
• Thepunt model doesn’t account for the punter orreturner, ignores penalties on returns and ignores the potential forblocked punts to be returned for touchdowns
• Thefield goal model doesn’t account for who thekicker is, what the weather is (only relevant for outdoor games), or thepossibility of a kick being blocked and returned for a touchdown

Get Started

To get started with nfl4th please seethisarticle. Some examples of 4th down research using the packagecanbe found here.