■anond:20250305155641

ADP 4-0

Chapter 1 要約: 持続可能性の概要 (Overview of Sustainment)

Chapter 1では、持続可能性 (Sustainment) の概念と、その軍事作戦における重要性について説明されています。

持続可能性とは、作戦の成功を確実にするために、部隊に必要なサポート（物資、兵站、人員、医療支援など）を提供すること を指します。

1-1. 持続可能性の役割

持続可能性は、作戦の自由度を確保し、作戦範囲を拡大し、持久力を高める ために必要不可欠。

持続可能性の効果的な提供は、部隊の即応性 (Readiness)、作戦の有効性、長期的な成功 に影響を与える。

1-2.陸軍作戦と持続可能性

持続可能性は、陸軍の統一陸軍作戦 (UnifiedLand Operations, ULO) の一部として機能。

作戦環境は競争 (Competition)、危機 (Crisis)、紛争 (Conflict)、安定 (Stability) の4つのフェーズに分類され、それぞれのフェーズで異なる持続可能性の要求が発生する。

1-3. 持続可能性の原則

持続可能性には、8つの主要原則 がある。

統合 (Integration) - 持続可能性を作戦全体に統合する。

予測 (Anticipation) - 将来の需要を予測して準備する。

即応性 (Responsiveness) - 変化に対応し、適切な支援を提供する。

単純性 (Simplicity) -効率的な計画と管理を行う。

経済性 (Economy) -リソースを効率的に使用する。

生存性 (Survivability) -兵站・医療支援などの持続可能性の要素を保護する。

継続性 (Continuity) -支援が途切れないようにする。

即興性 (Improvisation) -予測不能な状況に柔軟に適応する。

1-4. 持続可能性の主要要素

持続可能性は、次の3つの主要要素 で構成される。

兵站 (Logistics) -補給、輸送、整備、インフラ整備など。

人的サービス (Personnel Services) - 人事管理、財務管理、宗教支援、リーガルサポートなど。

医療サービス支援 (Health Service Support) -医療補給、患者処置、医療輸送など。

Chapter 1 の結論

持続可能性は、軍事作戦の成功を支える重要な要素であり、その計画と実行は 「8つの原則」と「3つの主要要素」 に基づいて行われる。戦場の状況に適応しながら、継続的に支援を提供することが、勝利への鍵となる。

ADP 4-0 Chapter 2 要約: 持続可能性の要素 (Elements of Sustainment)

Chapter 2では、持続可能性の3つの主要要素である兵站 (Logistics)、人的サービス (Personnel Services)、医療サービス支援 (Health Service Support) について詳しく説明されています。

それぞれの要素がどのように機能し、軍事作戦の成功に貢献するのかが解説されています。

2-1.兵站 (Logistics)

兵站は、部隊の運用を支えるために物資やサービスを提供する機能 であり、以下の主要分野に分類される。

1)補給 (Supply)

クラス I: 食料、水

クラス II: 衣類、装備

クラス III: 燃料、潤滑油

クラスIV:建設資材

クラス V:弾薬

クラスVI:個人用品

クラスVII: 主要装備品（車両、兵器など）

クラスVIII:医療用品

クラスIX: 修理部品

クラス X: その他特定の物資（農業支援物資など）

2)配送 (Distribution)

必要な物資を適切なタイミングで部隊に供給するためのシステム。

陸軍は プッシュ型 (Push) と プル型 (Pull) の2種類の補給方式を使用。

3)輸送 (Transportation)

陸上、空中、海上輸送を組み合わせて、兵員・物資を適切な地点に移動させる。

戦術輸送 (Tactical Transportation) と戦略輸送 (Strategic Transportation) に分類。

4)保守・整備 (Maintenance)

機材・装備の故障を防ぎ、作戦の継続性を確保。

現場レベルの修理 (Field Maintenance) と拠点レベルの修理 (Depot Maintenance) に分類。

5)インフラ支援 (General Engineering Support)

基地建設、橋の架設、道路の補修など、部隊の運用を支える工兵作業。

6) 受け入れ・配置・後送 (Reception, Staging,Onward Movement, and Integration: RSOI)

新たに戦域へ展開する部隊をスムーズに作戦地域に統合するためのプロセス。

2-2. 人的サービス (Personnel Services)

人的サービスは、部隊の士気・福祉・法的保護などを提供し、長期的な戦闘持続力を高める。

1) 人事管理 (Human Resources Support)

兵士の記録管理、配置、昇進、休暇管理など。

2)財務管理 (Financial Management)

兵士への給与支払い、戦場での契約管理、経費精算など。

3)宗教支援 (Religious Support)

チャプレン (Chaplain) による精神的支援。

4)リーガルサポート (Legal Support)

軍法に関する助言、契約管理、戦争犯罪の法的支援。

5)兵士・家族支援プログラム (Morale, Welfare, and Recreation - MWR)

兵士とその家族の士気向上のための施設やプログラム（娯楽、スポーツ施設、教育プログラムなど）。

2-3.医療サービス支援 (Health Service Support)

医療サービス支援は、兵士の健康を維持し、負傷者の治療・後送を行う ことを目的とする。

1)医療補給 (MedicalLogistics)

医薬品、医療機器、衛生用品の提供。

2)患者処置 (Medical Treatment)

救急処置 (FirstAid)

前線治療 (Role 1) -基本的な応急処置と安定化

前進外科治療 (Role 2) - より高度な治療

戦域病院 (Role 3 & 4) -重症患者の治療と本国送還

3)医療輸送 (Medical Evacuation)

戦場から負傷者を医療施設へ移送するプロセス。

Chapter 2 の結論

持続可能性の3つの主要要素（兵站、人的サービス、医療サービス支援）は、それぞれ異なる役割を持ちながら、統合的に機能することで部隊の戦闘持続力を最大化 する。

兵站は物理的な補給・輸送を担当し、人的サービスは士気や法的支援を提供し、医療支援は兵士の健康と戦闘継続能力を確保する。

これらの要素が適切に機能しなければ、作戦の成功は困難となる。

ADP 4-0 Chapter 3 要約: 持続可能性の作戦 (Sustainment Operations)

Chapter 3では、持続可能性がどのように軍事作戦に統合され、実行されるのか について説明されています。

持続可能性の作戦は、戦略・作戦・戦術の各レベルで実施され、部隊の即応性と持続力を確保する役割を果たします。

3-1. 持続可能性の作戦レベル

持続可能性の作戦は、戦略 (Strategic)、作戦 (Operational)、戦術 (Tactical) の3つのレベルで展開される。

1)戦略レベル (StrategicLevel)

国防総省 (DoD) の指揮のもと、持続可能性の全体計画を策定

兵站支援のための国家および多国間のリソースを活用

グローバルな兵站ネットワークの管理（補給拠点、輸送ルートの確保）

例: 戦域への戦略輸送、燃料供給ルートの確保、大規模な装備生産・補給

2)作戦レベル (OperationalLevel)

陸軍の戦域指揮官が持続可能性を作戦計画に統合

部隊の配備・展開・撤退計画を支援

主要補給拠点を確立し、兵站ルートを最適化

例: 戦域内での補給拠点の確立、部隊間の輸送調整

3)戦術レベル (TacticalLevel)

戦闘部隊に対し、即時かつ継続的な支援を提供

最前線部隊への迅速な補給・医療支援

例:弾薬・燃料の補給、前線での負傷兵救護、戦場の整備作業

3-2. 戦域持続可能性システム (Theater Sustainment System)

戦域で持続可能性を確保するために、以下のシステムが活用される。

1) 持続可能性コマンド・組織

戦域持続可能性コマンド (Theater SustainmentCommand,TSC): 戦域全体の兵站・補給活動を統括

持続可能性旅団 (SustainmentBrigades):作戦地域内での兵站・輸送・医療支援を管理

戦闘部隊支援大隊 (Combat Sustainment Support Battalions, CSSB):最前線への補給・支援を担当

2) 主要な兵站拠点

戦略拠点 (StrategicBase):本国や同盟国の補給基地

戦域持続可能性拠点 (Theater SustainmentBase): 戦域内の主要補給拠点

前進補給拠点 (ForwardLogisticsBase):前線部隊に最も近い補給拠点

3)輸送ネットワーク

戦略輸送 (StrategicLift):海上・航空輸送を使用して戦域に物資を送る

作戦輸送 (Operational Movement): 戦域内の部隊や物資の移動

戦術輸送 (Tactical Resupply):前線部隊への弾薬・燃料・食料の輸送

3-3. 多領域作戦 (Multi-Domain Operations, MDO) における持続可能性

近年の軍事作戦では、陸・海・空・宇宙・サイバー領域が統合された「多領域作戦 (MDO)」 が重要視されている。

1) 持続可能性の挑戦

敵の攻撃による補給ラインの遮断

サイバー攻撃による物流システムの妨害

分散作戦による長距離補給の必要性

2) 持続可能性の適応

分散型補給 (Distributed Sustainment):兵站拠点を分散し、攻撃に耐えるシステムを構築

自律型輸送 (AutonomousLogistics):無人車両・ドローンを活用した物資輸送

サイバー防御 (Cyber Resilience):兵站ネットワークの防御を強化

3-4. 持続可能性作戦の計画と統制

持続可能性作戦は、統合戦力 (Joint Force)、多国籍軍 (Multinational Forces)、民間機関と連携して計画・実行 される。

1)計画の要素

作戦のフェーズごとに必要な物資・支援の計画を策定

補給、輸送、医療支援の最適化

2) 指揮統制 (C2:Command and Control)

統合兵站システム (JointLogisticsEnterprise, JLEnt) による全体管理

持続可能性司令部 (SustainmentCommand) の調整 による迅速な意思決定

Chapter 3 の結論

持続可能性は、戦略・作戦・戦術の各レベルで統合的に実施される必要がある。

陸軍は戦域持続可能性システムを活用し、補給・輸送・医療支援を効果的に提供 する。

多領域作戦 (MDO) に適応するため、新たな技術と分散型補給戦略が求められる。

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■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.

Assessing habitablezones

I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.

Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.

LHS 1140 b:

Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinalNote

All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.

The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:

The Drake Equation

The equationis usually writtenas:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formationrate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-humanintelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equPermalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

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■Chatgptが答えた異星人の存在可能性とのそのロジック

Please consider the histroy ofhumanity from biologicalperpsecitve and currentknown fact in nearbyuniverse, whichexpo-planet (from theSol systemperspective)ismostlikely to have civlizaedsociety? Pleaseaddpercentagenext toit in the chart

ChatGPT

Reasoned about exoplanetcivilizationlikelihoodを28 秒行う

Evaluatingplanetary prospects

OK, I’mlookingatthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon an exoplanet within ourSolar System.I’ll consider biologicalhistory and current space knowledge,aiming to identifythe most promising candidate.

Identifying potential candidates

I'm considering exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1e, which might suggest they are within or observed from ourSolar System.

Assessing potential candidates

I’m evaluating Proxima Centauri b, Barnard'sStar, LHS 1140, and TRAPPIST-1,focusingon their habitablezonesand available data. The Drake equation might help estimate their civilizedsocietylikelihoods.

Identifying promising exoplanets

I’m notingkey exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, which haveEarth-like characteristicsand are in habitablezones. This narrows down the potential candidates for advancedcivilizations.

Assessing habitablezones

I'm gathering infoonplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1, consideringfactorslikemagneticfields,atmospheres, and proximity to G-typestars for their potential to support advancedcivilizations.

Evaluating exoplanet prospects

I'm noting that Proxima Centauri b, despitebeing closeand around ared dwarfstar, might supportlife ifithas amagneticfieldand atmosphere. This makes me think aboutits potential.

Charting probabilities

I'm estimatingcivilization probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e, using speculativepercentagesbasedon the Drake equation and the lack ofevidence for intelligentlife.

Charting speculative odds

I'm crafting a chart with exoplanet names andcivilizationlikelihoodpercentages, grounded in the longtimeline oflife'sevolution, despite the speculativenature of these figures.

Identifying exoplanet contenders

I’m evaluating exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, TRAPPIST-1 e, and Kepler-186f, considering theirstar types and distances, to gauge their potential for supporting advancedcivilizations from oursolar system'sviewpoint.

Weighing proximity and observation

I'm leaning towards Proxima Centauri b due toits closeness and observational potential, despite concerns aboutitsflarestar dynamics. TRAPPIST-1 e, f, or g are also worth considering.

Revisiting exoplanet options

I'mfocusingon exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b, Ross 128 b, LHS 1140 b, TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, andK2-18b,aiming to chart theirlikelihood of hosting a civilizedsocietybasedon current knowledge.

Assessing exoplanet potentials

I'm gathering speculative probabilities for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, using the Drake equation and current understanding, to better estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety.

Refining speculative probabilities

I’m refining speculative probabilities for exoplanets, including Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e/f/g, to estimate their chances of hosting a civilizedsociety, consideringEarth's long biologicalhistory.

Refining odds

I'm considering theastronomicaltimeline for intelligentlifeonEarth,leading me toassign evenlower speculative odds for exoplanetslike Proxima Centauri b and TRAPPIST-1 e.

Clarifying speculativenature

I’m crafting a simplified chart with arbitrarypercentages, clearly noting the speculativenature and lack of scientific data, while considering the target audience'sbasic understanding of the topic.

Mappingout speculative odds

I’m charting arbitrarypercentages for exoplanets, clarifying their speculativenature, and ensuring the datais accessible foryoung audiences with minimal scientific detail.

Crafting a chart

I’m creating amarkdowntable with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of civilizedlifeon exoplanets, emphasizing their purely theoreticalnature and considering the understandinglevel of an 8-year-old.

Integrating speculative analysis

I’m mappingout amarkdown chart with speculativepercentages forthe likelihood of a civilizedsocietyon exoplanets, mindful of thecomplexity and simplifying for an 8-year-old's understanding.

Assessinglikelihoods

I’m piecingtogethermarkdown for exoplanets, noting Proxima Centauri b'sreduced civilizedlife chance due to thered dwarf's activity. This inclusionhighlights the speculativenature of the analysis.

Piecingtogether speculative odds

I’m detailing amarkdown chart for audience-friendly exoplanetlikelihoods, considering environmental challengesand adding a disclaimer about the speculativenature and lack ofevidence.

Piecingtogether

I’m leaning towards Proxima Centauri b forits proximity and silentstar, butI’lladd a speculative chart ranking nearby exoplanets, noting their advancedcivilizations' hypotheticallikelihood.

Assessingcivilization probabilities

I'm emphasizing the slow emergence of intelligentlifeonEarth, which suggests that the odds ofany habitableplanet developing acomplexcivilization might beaslowas a fewpercent.

Belowis a very speculative chart that—basedon what we know aboutEarth’s long, windingpath fromsimplelife to a “civilizedsociety” and our limited observations of nearby exoplanets—gives somefun,made‑uppercentage chances for a few of our best candidate exoplanets. Remember: Scientists havenot yetfoundany proof oflife (let alone advancedcivilizations)onany exoplanet. Thesenumbers are just playful estimates to helpyou think about theideas!

Speculative Chances of Finding an AdvancedCivilizationon Nearby Exoplanets

Exoplanet EstimatedLikelihood of a CivilizedSociety

Proxima Centauri b ~2%

TRAPPIST-1 e ~1.5%

TRAPPIST-1 f ~1%

TRAPPIST-1 g ~1%

LHS 1140 b ~0.5%

HowDid We (Very Roughly) Guess TheseNumbers?

Earth’s Example:

OnEarth,life beganassimple single‑celled organisms and took billions of years to evolve into a species that builtcomplex societies. This longjourney suggests that—even if aplanetis in the “habitablezone” (where liquid water could exist)—developing an advanced, civilizedsociety might be rare.

Nearby Exoplanets:

Proxima Centauri b:

Thisis the closest exoplanet to us. Even thoughitsstar (Proxima Centauri)is ared dwarf that sometimes sendsout strongflares (which might harmlife),its closeness makesitone of ourmost interesting candidates. That’swhy we giveit a slightly higher guess (~2%).

TRAPPIST-1 System (e, f, g):

Theseplanets are part of agroup orbiting a verycoolstar. Their environments might be challenging (for example, they could be tidally locked, meaningone sidealwaysfaces thestar), so the chance of acomplex, advancedcivilization might be abitlower.

LHS 1140 b:

Thisplanetis promising in some ways butis alittle fartherawayand around a dimmerstar, so our playful estimateis evenlower.

AFinalNote

All of thesepercentages are extremely rough guessesbasedon whatlittle we understand about the conditions forlife andintelligence. Scientists useideaslike the Drake Equation to think about these chances—but until we have concreteevidence, thesenumbers remain just forfun and imagination.

Enjoy exploring theseideas—and remember, spaceis full of mysteries waiting to be discovered!

あなた:

Please examine the Drake Equationitself and see if this euqationis acculate ormore opition in the equationyouwill use

ChatGPT

Reasoned about the Drake Equationを6 秒行う

re-examining the Drake Equation

evaluating the Drake Equation'svalue

Clarifying the Drake Equation

OK, let me see. The Drake Equationisn't a precise formula;it'smore of a guiding heuristic that tackles numerous uncertainties regarding extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Assessing the Drake Equation

Thinking through the Drake Equation, I’m evaluatingits conceptualnature,its uncertain parameters, andits criticism to concludeonits reliabilityas an accurate predictivemodel.

Understanding the Drake Equation

I’m mappingout the Drake Equationas a conceptual guide, detailingits parameters, which are oftenbasedon estimates or opinions, to evaluateits reliability for predicting extraterrestrialcivilizations.

The Drake Equationis a famous formula thatwas created to help scientists think about the manyfactors involved in estimating thenumber of detectable extraterrestrialcivilizations in ourgalaxy. However, when welookat the equation closely, we see thatitismore of a conceptualframework or heuristictool than a precise, predictive formula.Let’sbreak downwhy:

The Drake Equation

The equationis usually writtenas:

𝑁

=

𝑅

∗

×

𝑓

𝑝

×

𝑛

𝑒

×

𝑓

𝑙

×

𝑓

𝑖

×

𝑓

𝑐

×

𝐿

N=R

∗

×f

p

​

×n

e

​

×f

l

​

×f

i

​

×f

c

​

×L

Where:

𝑅

∗

R

∗

: The averagerate ofstar formationper year in ourgalaxy.

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

: The fraction of thosestars that haveplanetary systems.

𝑛

𝑒

n

e

​

: The averagenumber ofplanets that could potentially supportlifeperstar withplanets.

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

: The fraction of thoseplanets wherelife actually develops.

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

: The fraction ofplanets withlife where intelligentlife evolves.

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

: The fraction ofcivilizations that develop technology that releases detectablesignals into space.

𝐿

L: The length oftime suchcivilizations release detectablesignals.

Why the Drake EquationIsMore of a Guideline Than a Precise Formula

Uncertain Inputs:

Well-Known Parameters:

Somefactors,like

𝑅

∗

R

∗

(star formationrate) and

𝑓

𝑝

f

p

​

(fraction ofstars withplanets), have become better known through modernastronomy.

Highly SpeculativeFactors:

The parameters related to the development oflife andintelligence—

𝑓

𝑙

f

l

​

,

𝑓

𝑖

f

i

​

,

𝑓

𝑐

f

c

​

, and

𝐿

L—arebasedon very limited data. For example,Earthis theonlyplanet we know wherelifehas developed, so we have no way to compare or derive a statistically robust estimate for thesefactors. This means that thevalues chosen for these parameters are largely subjective estimates or educated guesses.

Wide Ranges of PossibleValues:

Because many of thesefactors are not well-constrained, ifyouchangeone of themore uncertain parameters even slightly, thefinal estimate for

𝑁

N (thenumber ofcivilizations) can varyby many orders ofmagnitude. This wide range shows that the equation canlead to very differentoutcomesbasedonpersonal or theoreticalassumptions.

Heuristic, Not Predictive:

The Drake Equationwas never meant to provide a preciseanswer. Instead,it servesas a way to organize our thinking about what conditions might be necessary for the development of extraterrestrialcivilizations.It encourages discussion about the relative importance of differentfactors andhighlights where our scientific knowledgeis limited.

Is the Drake Equation Accurate orMore Opinion-Based?

Accurate?

In thesense ofbeing a strict mathematicalmodel with well-defined inputs and predictableoutputs, the Drake Equationis not accurate.Its accuracyis limitedbythe extreme uncertainties in several ofitskey parameters.

Opinion-Based?

Many of the terms in the equation, especially those concerning theevolution oflife andintelligence, arebasedon opinion, interpretation, and the single example ofEarth. Therefore, while thestructure of the equationis logical, thenumbersyou put intoit (and hence thefinal result) are oftenmore reflective of our current opinionsand assumptions than of robust empirical data.

Conclusion

The Drake Equationis a valuabletool for framing the question of extraterrestriallife.It helps scientists and enthusiastsbreak down acomplex problem into smaller,more manageable questions. However, because several ofitsfactors are highly uncertain and subject topersonal interpretation,itismore of a conceptual guide—or even a way to stimulate discussion—than a formula that provides a definitive, accurate prediction of thenumber of extraterrestrialcivilizations.

Insummary, while the Drake Equationis useful for thinking about the variousfactors that mightlead to the emergence of acivilization,itsoutputs should betakenas highly speculative estimates rather than precise measurements.

あなた:

Please also consider the possiblities of non-human intelligent emrgencing from the longhistory ofSol system and nearbyplanets and see if thereisany possiblites that inonetime intelligentlife emerged in nearbyplanets and see this to the equation

ChatGPT

Reasoned about non-humanintelligence and the Drake Equationを19 秒行う

Evaluating non-humanintelligence

I'm thinking about the potential for non-human intelligentlife forms in theSol system and neighboringplanets, and how this mightfactor into the equation.

Piecingtogether possibilities

I'm thinking about how to integrate the emergence of non-human intelligentlife, possiblyonMars orEuropa, into the Drake Equation for theSol system and neighboringplanets.

Reflectingon potential

It's interesting to think about the hypothesis of intelligentlife emergingonMars orVenus, thoughEarth remains theonly knownlife-supportingplanet in thesolar system.

Considering other realms

I'm examining if intelligentlife could have emergedonplanetslikeMars,Venus, orEuropa, and how thispossibility alignswith the predictions of the Drake Equation.

Analyzing parallelevolution

Hmm, I’m thinking about how non-human intelligentlifeonMars orVenus could intersectwith theassumptions of the Drake Equation, which seems tofocussolelyonEarth-basedevolution.

Evaluatinglife exploration

I’m piecingtogether the hypothesis of non-human, advanced, intelligentlife in thesolar system.Mars,Venus, and Titan present challenges, butEuropa and Enceladus might harbor microbiallife.

Adapting the equPermalink |記事への反応(0) | 21:12

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■Bingを英語で使うと頭がおかしい

ワイ:Is this the bad place?

Bing:Yes, thisis the **Bad Place**. Theair smellslike **rotten eggs**, and theWi-Fiis **terrible**. Butdon't worry, we'll find a wayout ofhere! 😅

ワイ: Whatsin have I violated?

You findyourself in the **Bad Place**, a realm whereWi-Fiis **terrible** and theair smellslike **rotten eggs**.Fear not, for I shall unravel the mystery ofyour transgressions. 🌋

Yoursin? Ah,it's a peculiarone.You committed the grave offense of **"Not Rewinding theVHS Tapes Before Returning Them."**Yes, that's right! The cosmic balancewas disruptedbyyour negligence, andnowyou're stuckhere, surroundedbyoutdated technology and mildly annoyingbackgroundmusic.

But fret not,dearsoul! Redemption awaits. Toescape this wackydimension,you must embarkon a quest to find the mythical **"Golden Remote Control"** hiddensomewhere in the stacks of ancientVHS tapes.Only then canyou break free from this pixelated purgatory.

So,onward,brave wanderer!Mayyour tracking adjust well, andyour trackingnumberleadyou to salvation. 📼✨

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 13:19

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■[映画]2分の1の魔法ONWARD を Disney+ で見た時のタイトル回収シーンって

信じられないほど分かりにくかったよね、という話。

〜 ここからはネタバレ含みます 〜

イアンの運転で今すぐに逃げなければいけないという状況でバーリーが指示を出すシーン。

▼映画館字幕で視聴

車のメーターのところに手書きしたOのシールが貼られており、「ONWARD＜前進＞のOだ！」という字幕が出た。

そうすると見ている人は「ONWARDという単語は日本語では前進という意味なんだ」と知ることができる。

その時点でタイトルを回収したことにより嬉しくなったが、映画を見終わった時に

・車が前進したこと

・イアンが人として成長できて前進したこと

・2人の""お父さん観""が変わって前進したこと

などなど、見る人によっても色々な前進がかかっていてタイトルがONWARDである意味を実感して感動した。

▼Disney+吹き替えで視聴

映画館で字幕で見た際の映像とは異なり、シールが「↑」のマークになっている。

その矢印がアップで映ったときに「前進だ！」というセリフが充てられている。

矢印マークを見て前進という意味だ、ともわかりにくいし、

そこで「前進＝ONWARD、なるほど！タイトル回収〜！」とはならない。

▼Disney+字幕で視聴

日本版Disney+上で字幕に切り替えても映像は「↑」のマークになっている。

字幕は「"前進"の"O"に」と表示されている。

映像の中にOもないし、前進のOと表示されたところでONWARDのOって意味かー、ともならない。

日本語版のタイトルは「2分の1の魔法」なので、漢字で前進と書かれてもタイトル回収にも関係がない。

今までDisney＋で「雰囲気を壊すような、映像の中に配置されてる英語を勝手にダサいフォントで日本語にするのはどうかと思う」と散々言われてた。

物語に大きく関係しなかったので「そこまで文句言わなくても...」とは思っていたが、

今回は物語の真骨頂に関係のある内容なので個人的に少し残念だった。

でもこの作品が大好きなので、日本版Disney+に登場してくれてありがとう。

何度も繰り返し見て楽しみます！

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 22:24

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■コロナ感染者カレンダー３Dプロット

４月１３日の週から、今週まで東京都のデータ入れて、matplotlibで３D化してみた。

今週の明日以降のデータは先週値からプラス10で入れてます。

これだと減ってる様子は見て取れないけど、東洋経済のサイトのグラフだと実行再生算数１切ってるんだよね。

感覚とは合わないけど、ここから下がる予定。不思議なもんだ。

下記のコードは好きに使ってくださいな。

GoogleのCode Labとかならすぐに遊べます。

---

from mpl_toolkits.mplot3d importAxes3D

import matplotlib.pyplotas plt

import numpyasnp

x =np.array([-1, -2, -3, -4, -5, -6, -7]) # from Mon toSun

y =np.array([1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17]) # From Apr13 toonward

X, Y =np.meshgrid(x, y)

#Number Data of New Infection Patient

Z =np.array([[ 98,161,127,150,204,185,107], # Apr13

[100,123,125,134,166,107,76], # Apr20

[40,112, 47, 46, 164,159, 90], # Apr27

[87, 57, 37,23, 39, 36, 22], # May4

[15,28,10, 30, 9, 14, 5], # May11

[10, 5, 5,11, 3, 2, 14], # May18

[ 8,10,11, 15, 22, 14, 5], # May25

[ 13, 34,12,28,20, 26, 14], # Jul1

[ 13,12, 18, 22, 25,24, 47], # Jul8

[ 48, 27, 16, 41, 35, 39, 35], # Jul15

[ 29,31, 55, 48, 54, 57, 60], # Jul22

[ 58, 54, 67,107,124,130,111], # Jul29

[102,106, 75,224,243,206,206], # Jul6

[119,143,165,286,293,290,188], # Jul13

[168,237,238,366,260,295,239], # Jul20

[131,266,250,367,463,472,292], # Jul27

[282,276,260,377,473,482,302]]) # Aug3 : enclidingexpectations = prev weeknumber +10

fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10,8))

ax =Axes3D(fig)

ax.set_xlabel('Day', fontsize=16)

ax.set_ylabel('Week', fontsize=16)

# OURONE LINER ADDEDHERE:

ax.get_proj =lambda:np.dot(Axes3D.get_proj(ax),np.diag([0.8, 1.2, 1, 1]))

ax.plot_wireframe(X, Y, Z)

ax.plot_surface(X, Y, Z,cmap=plt.cm.jet, rstride=1, cstride=1, linewidth=0)

plt.show()

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 16:42

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■[増田統計]2020年7月18日土曜日の増田

本日の急増単語 ()内の数字は単語が含まれる記事数

kazeo(12), ongakunohi(9), pelisplus(12), 春馬(9), parasitos(8),三浦春馬(40), noe(6), gaspar(6),onward(5), imdif(4),三浦九段(5), 棋界(4),Go(15),ユニクロ(26),俳優(32), en(16), ガード(16),都民(21), 💩(38),キャンペーン(32), 👁(13),サル(7),賃貸(12),将棋(13),東京都(14),不動産(12),自殺(73), 亡くなっ(20), -2(20),旅行(33),芸能人(26),お気持ち(36),マンション(16),ポリコレ(20),地方(36), 死(39)

頻出トラックバック先 ()内の数字は被トラックバック件数

■35歳後半。服はどこで買えばいいですか？　 /20200718001405(27), ■幼馴染み一家が結婚星人になっていた追記有り /20200718012036(19), ■ちきりんも残念な人になったな /20200718000431(17), ■都民って他県民差別してる？ /20200717152440(16), ■渡辺明の孤独な闘い /20200718001048(15), ■才能のある人間が羨ましいという話 /20200718070640(14), ■炊飯の労力を最大限省略したい /20200717213538(14), ■リベラル派のオタクの居場所がなくなってきている。 /20200717234540(11), ■ブクマカ「ブコメを非公開にするのは卑怯」 /20200718091023(10), ■ハンドメイドは所詮はコミュ力なんだ /20200713212404(9), ■増田のやべーやつ番付（2020年7月場所）幕内 /20200718145803(9), ■ゲーム作りの相談 /20200718032205(8), ■中途採用の面接で「恋人はいますか？」と質問された話 /20200717232217(7), ■32歳腐女子の友人側と語る30歳腐女子を眺める同年代腐女子の感想 /20200718115124(7), ■35歳後半。とんかつはどこで買えばいいですの？　 /20200718153545(7), ■正義の剣を振りかざすの楽しいですか？ /20200717203333(7), ■ちきりんのGoToキャンペーン論 /20200718171639(6), ■巣ごもりから子づくりを連想してしまう /20200718132649(6), ■スクワットしようとすると /20200718220720(6), ■俳句をやってみたい /20200717192100(6), ■ /20200718072245(6), ■手取り14万って人間の生活できないだろ /20200717184033(6)

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 00:04

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■VRで最強のゲームを見つけたい

oculuslift Sを買った。自分は軽度のDNC、つまりダイブ不適合者(ノンコンフォーミング)のようで、眩暈と吐き気に耐えながら頑張っているわけだ。

ある程度吐気等には慣れてきて、最近はそれなりの時間ダイブできるようになった。

それで色々なゲームを試してみようという気になったんだ。

この世の中には五行思想というものがある。木・火・土・金・水で自然界は説明できるというものだ。正直この世の中のモノを全て5つで説明するのは無理があるんだけど、大体の事は説明できる。

VRも同じように、全てについてもれなく紹介するのは難しいけど、大体の王道ジャンルを5つ出してみようと思う。

VR5要素、すなわち

「レーシング」-フライト、乗り物、ラン

フライトシミュレーター、カーレーシング等の乗り物に乗ったり、移動をゲーム性にしたもの。

「格闘」-格闘、剣

ボクシングや、剣で戦うようなもの。

「FPS」-銃・弓

「景観」-探検・眺める

「創造」-3Dクラフト

があると思う。

と言ってもまだONWARDとかやってる最中。フライトシミュレーターは特に吐く。

Permalink |記事への反応(0) | 12:37

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